TinT – Technology-in-Travel

TinT – Technology-in-Travel

An excerpt from our monthly Net Value  report. As this is a subscription report, the following item is

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index

Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 90 in March. Previous month 137.

Comments:

-Not surprisingly, all of our seven stocks fell.

-Also not a surprise is that all fell faster than their local stockmarket – because the travel business has probably been hit hardest.

-Our analysis this month stops there – as all has been overwhelmed by the covid coronavirus.

*Notes: NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech. The Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and four in the US – one of which, cTrip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for cTrip, end-2016 for Trivago.

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-20

Company	Price,local currency							Growth┼,%		NVTT* index
	Mar 20	Feb 20	Jan 20	Dec 19	Dec 18		Dec 15	stock	market	Company	All
Amadeus	43.2	62.5	70.8	72.8	60.8		40.7	-30.9	-23.0	131	145
Booking╪	1345	1729	1831	2054	1722		1275	-22.2	-14.0	118	131
cTrip	22.5	34.9	34.9	34.9	27.1		46.8	-25.9	-19.7	48	53
eDreams	1.85	3.67	4.42	4.27	2.38		1.90	-49.6	-23.0	112	124
Expedia	56	96	108	108	113		124	-41.4	-19.7	66	73
Lastminute	21.5	35.8	44.4	46.0	17.5		13.1	-39.9	-7.7	144	160
Trivago	1.46	1.82	2.63	2.62	5.63		na	-19.8	-19.7	12	14

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed 2018; was Priceline. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

#travel-technology #travel business #Internet&travel

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TinT – Technology-in-Travel

TinT – Technology-in-Travel

Our monthly TinT report. As this is a subscription report, the following is not the current edition.

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index

Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 137 in February. Previous month 156.

  Comments:

-Yet another bad month – six of our eight stocks fell, two were unchanged.

-Unusually, all their local stockmarkets fell as well. (Our eight stocks are quoted in just four markets , of which two are in the US.)

-Compared with those local stockmarkets, two stocks did better than their local market, six worse.

-Three stocks are still below their baseline price – cTrip, Travelport, Trivago.

-Figures were trending down in March as the covid coronavirus was hitting travel movements around the world. In China, origin of the virus, business was starting to look better.

*Notes: NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech. The Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US – one of which, cTrip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for cTrip, end-2016 for Trivago.

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-20

Company	Price,local currency			Growth┼,%		NVTT* index
	Feb 20	Dec 19	Dec 15	stock	market	Company	All
Amadeus	62.5	72.8	40.7	-11.7	-6.0	189	138
Booking╪	1729	2054	1275	-5.5	-2.2	152	111
cTrip	34.9	34.9	46.8	0.0	-5.8	75	55
eDreams	3.67	4.27	1.90	-17.0	-6.0	222	163
Expedia	96	108	124	-11.5	-5.8	112	82
Lastminute	35.8	46.0	13.1	-19.4	-5.0	239	175
Travelport	15.8	15.8	12.9	0.0	-5.8	87	64
Trivago	1.82	2.62	na	-30.8	-5.8	15	11

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed 2018; was Priceline. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

Bites

[] Reports from PCW (Phocuswright, a travel research company specialising in online data):

-Reports that Expedia and Booking spent a combined US$11bn on ‘marketing’ in 2019. We calculate that would have been +3.8% growth – which looks low for this segment of the travel business.

-US OTAs (online travel agencies) bookings were US$78bn +7% in 2019.

-20% of US travel is now booked through OTAs.

-In the US in 2019, the online Air share was 80%, Hotel 48%, Cruise 52%, Car rental 65%.

#travel-technology #travel business #Internet&travel

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TinT – Technology-in-Travel

TinT – Technology-in-Travel

Our monthly TinT report. As this is a subscription report, the following is not the current edition.

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index

Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 151 in November. Previous month 156.

  Comments:

-Last month we reported that results were ‘getting better, just about’. Whoops.

-We have seen Trivago fall almost more often than growing. But this month it fell one-third! It is now only 20% of its debut into the market end-2016.

-The other big fall was not quite as bad, -26%, but this was Expedia! If there is the ‘first’ OTA – in the sense of size – that is probably Expedia.

-The reasons are known – the company’s top-2 executives fired because of a disagreement over direction. So investors are not yet clear on the new direction, and of course do not know if the change is the right one. Thus the fall.

-Perhaps many investors piled into cTrip, which grew +6%.

*Notes: NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech. The Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US – one of which, cTrip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for cTrip, end-2016 for Trivago.

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-19

Company	Price,local currency							Growth┼,%		NVTT* index
	Nov 19	Oct 19	Dec 18	Dec 17	Dec 16		Dec 15	stock	market	Company	All
Amadeus	72.3	66.3	60.8	60.1	43.2		40.7	9.0	1.0	219	145
Booking╪	1904	2049	1722	1738	1466		1275	-7.1	4.5	167	110
cTrip	34.9	33.0	27.1	44.1	40.0		46.8	5.9	2.8	75	49
eDreams	4.08	4.12	2.38	4.77	2.98		1.90	-1.0	1.0	247	164
Expedia	102	137	113	120	113		124	-25.6	2.8	119	79
Lastminute	41.2	40.9	17.5	15.4	14.4		13.1	0.7	2.7	276	182
Travelport	15.8	15.8	15.6	13.1	14.1		12.9	0.0	2.8	87	58
Trivago	2.33	3.50	5.63	6.84	11.8		na	-33.4	2.8	20	13

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed 2018-02; was Priceline. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

Bites

[] Turkey-based Obilet, an online air and bus ticket sales platform founded in 2012, reports 400mn visitors, and targets selling 18mn tickets this year // 2020. It reports a ‘size’ of US$15bn; we presume this is booking volume. 

[] PCW (Phocuswright, a travel research company specialising in online data) forecasts on Germany’s online travel market*:

-Total travel bookings estimated to grow 2% annually from this year, to US$76.8bn (at US$1 to €0.90) in 2023.

-‘Passenger volume’ (presumed to be seat sales, not revenue) in Summer-2018 (presumed to be July, August) +3%.

*Notes:

-Most are Net Value estimates on PCW data.

-At press time, PCW had not answered our request for clarifications.

Germany’s online- and total-travel market, US$bn*

Year	Total	Online
2023	77	41
2022	75	38
2021	74	36
2020	72	32
2019	71	32
2018	70	30
2017	68	28

Notes: *Converted at US$1 to €0.90. Most are Net Value estimates on PCW data. Source: PCW=Phocuswright.

#travel-technology #travel business #Internet&travel

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