Travel Industry Data Updates, March 18-22

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Travel Industry Data Updates, March 18-22

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

 

 

 

TBA Tracking: Travel Traffic Indices – Asia Pacific, Europe, US, world

22 March 2019

Asia Pacific

Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ from the current Asia Pacific edition of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2018: Dec +5%E; Nov +5.7%P; Oct +4.9%.

Europe

Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ from the current Europe edition of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2018: Dec +6%E; Nov +5.6%P; Oct +6.6%.

US

Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ from the current editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2018: Dec +5%E; Nov +5.0%P; Oct +5.0%.

World

Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ from the current editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2018: Dec +5%E; Nov +5.7%P; Oct +5.8%.

(Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

 

Travel business updates

21 March 2019

[] ARC (the Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines), reports for February: air tickets sold US $8.3bn +2.8%; average US roundtrip ticket US$486 flat; passenger trips 25.9mn +2.1% (domestic -0.3%, international +5%, ARC-rounded); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$6.4mn -2%, ARC-rounded; EMD transactions not numbered, -13%, ARC-rounded; online sales growth +9.2%.

[] IATA (International Air Transport Association) reports February airline share price movements ‘generally muted’. Our database shows +2.0%.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels in February: occupancy +0.7% to 62.2%, average room rate +1.9% to US$128.94.

 

New research on Asean, Spain

20 March 2019

Two new reports from Research & Markets* (RM), a company.

[] On Asean destinations:

-‘Business travel’ 37.1mn in 2018, +35.2% over 2014-18. We presume this is business-travel arrivals in the 10 destinations. RM does not clarify, nor give the overall total, nor take account of the different counting methods – most notably between the DMOs of Malaysia and Singapore.

  We estimate 133mn total-arrivals in Asean based on counts by DMOs. But 140mn if Singapore followed the same methodology as Malaysia, and 120mn if Malaysia followed the same methodology as Singapore.

  (Our WYSK-What-You-Should-Know monthly-report shows other adjustments to better standardise the totals.)

-61% of ‘tourism’ in Asean (we presume international visitor arrivals) is for leisure.

-RM makes a surprising observation:

‘The low price of items such as food and accommodation in much of the Asean region, makes it easy to travel around on a budget.’

We presume RM means ‘low budget’ (which, of course, still has no value if not accompanied by a figure). We also presume RM is commenting on prices outside Asean’s capitals and other centres – where prices are as high as in other destination regions.

[] On Spain:

-Outbound trips 18.4mn, forecast to grow ‘between 2018 and 2019’ (no further clarification) +6.4%.

-Outbound travel spend US$40.8bn +7.1% 2018 over 2017 (note different period than some other categories). Forecasts +15.6% AAGR (annual average growth rate) over 2019-22.

-Domestic trips 166.7mn +3.9%, over ‘2018 and 2019’.

-‘Spanish tourists’ spend an average US$212.09 +9.3% (quoted in US$) per domestic trip. We presume this is all domestic travellers, not just Spanish nationals; a Wikipedia report indicates there are about 6mn non-Spanish living in Spain, near-13% of the total.

Period not given; we presume 2018 over 2017. RM compares that Spain domestic-travel total with growth (not dollar counts) in France +3.3%, Germany +4.4%, but gives period of 2017-19 without further clarification.

-Forecasts +10.6% AAGR for outbound air travel over 2016-9.

-Forecasts average trip length ‘for the Spanish tourist’ to be 10 days in 2022.

*Notes: We have run many critical reports on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – most apparently due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

New China hotels

19 March 2019

Lodging Econometrics on China’s hotel pipeline:

-2761 +12% hotels, 580,635 +6% rooms.

-Main cities – Guangzhou 132/28,694, Shanghai 123/25,283, Chengdu 109/23,478, Hangzhou 90/17,978, Suzhou 84/15,436.

-Main companies – Hilton 386/86,880, InterContinental 314/72,758, Jinjiang 288/33,043, Marriott 283/77,340, Accor 186/33,683.

-Of the main brands (may not always be in this position in the total list) – Hampton (Hilton) 194/30,345, DoubleTree (Hilton) 67/19,453, Holiday Inn Express 150/28,257, Holiday Inn 57/15,401, 7 Days (Jinjiang) 121/9541, Vienna (Jinjiang) 83/11,614, Marriott 64/19,463, Courtyard (Marriott) 35/9025, Ibis (Accor) 74/7849, Mercure (Accor) 50/8874.

 

Air updates

18 March 2019

Data from Washington Aviation Summary:

-813.8mn +5.5% travellers passed through US airport checkpoints in 2018. 4239 firearms were found in carry-on bags – reported as a ‘record’ but no other data given. Top-3 airports – Atlanta 298 (of which 253 were loaded firearms), Dallas 219 (193), Phoenix 129 (120). As these three total less than 700, the practice is spread wide through the country.

Airline ancillary revenue* was US$65bn in 2018. CI* are worryingly inconsistent. In 2018, they were reporting US$92.9bn and even US$82.2bn in 2017. CI do not give a growth rate, and so we are unable to analyse further. We presume this new US$65bn figure needs a qualification, and that it is not actually the grand total. In 2014, the global total was US$28.5bn.

On that US$65bn, Asia Pacific was US$18.8bn, Europe US$22.5bn, North America US$16.5bn, Africa/Middle East US$4.2bn, Latin America/Caribbean US$2.8bn. No growth rate given for these; according to our data, they would be falls, but as noted, CI are probably providing different data under the same generic description

*Notes:

-From Car Trawler, Idea Works = CI.

-Ancillary revenue (in the travel business usually used only for airlines although it could be used for other travel sectors) is generated by extra activities and services – for airlines this would be anything in addition to the air fare. Activities for airlines could be commission from hotel bookings, sale of frequent flyer points to partners. A big problem for measurement is that some airlines – usually no-frills-airlines but now often all types of airlines – charge extra for baggage transport and food (= ancillary), and others do not.

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK: What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Travel Business News March 4-8

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Travel Business News March 4-8

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Updates from ITB

8 March 2019

Data and some other news from ITB Berlin (ITBB) exhibition held earlier this week:

-Another ITB due to be launched – India, from April 2020 – which will be ITB’s 3rd in Asia. We expect its Singapore-based ITB Asia will be recategorised ‘Asia Pacific’ after this year’s event.

-The travel technology segment space at ITBB grew +20%.

-5.5mn Germany residents took at least one cycling trip in 2018. Growth not given but ITBB said this was a record.

-Visa and Oxford Economics, via ITBB, estimate that the worldwide medical tourism business is worth US$100bn and forecast in 2025 it will be 25% higher.

 

WTTC reports on the UK and US

7 March 2019

WTTC* on the travel businesses in UK and US:

UK

-Travel GDP growth +1% (we assume 1.0) in 2018, below its +6.2% in 2017, and below +3.9% 2018 world average. European Union (which includes UK*) +2.7%. WTTC adds that China was +7.3%, India +6.7%, Thailand +6% (6.0?).

-US$304bn (at US$1 to £0.77) (travel GDP?) in 2018. WTTC reports all other markets (except France) wrongly; we have corrected its data – US is US$156bn, China US$148bn, Japan US$359bn, Germany US$337bn. Below the UK are Italy US$269bn, France US$260bn, Spain US$206bn.

-UK 2018 visitor spend US$36.9bn -9.7%. This indicates that visitor spend represents about 12% of total travel GDP.

-Forecasts 2019 growth +1.4%, compared with world +3.6%, EU +2.4%.

US

-Travel in 2018 worth US$1595bn +2.2%, 7.8% of GDP.

-Visitor spend US$198.8bn -0.9%.

-‘Chinese travel’ (we presume WTTC means visitor arrivals in the US from residents in the China mainland, excluding Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan) flat; +23% average annual growth rate over 2008-18.

-Visitors from China 4% share of US visitors, 11% share of visitor spend.

*Notes:

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK: What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

-WTTC (World Travel & Tourism Council), a lobby group for the travel business, has its own methodology for calculating the turnover of the travel business including not just inbound, outbound, and domestic travel, but other industries involved in the business. For instance, if 0.5% of the world’s cars go into the car-rental business, that measure would be calculated into the turnover of the overall travel business.

  Unfortunately, WTTC is not always clear that its data is related to this grand total, and often its commentary appears to be related to just one sector – often, the inbound visitor business. In addition, it sometimes uses the terms ‘travel’ or ‘tourism’ alone; we cannot always determine if these mean something different from ‘travel & tourism’.

  WTTC’s name does not help – the ‘TT’ is ‘travel & tourism’, where we would define ‘travel’ as covering all segments of the travel business, with ‘tourism’ meaning ‘leisure travel’ to most observers, just one segment. This means that most people and bodies the WTTC lobbies may think they are discussing just inbound leisure travel.

  In addition, the group is so careless in its presentations that the professional observer is sometimes left to guess what WTTC’s research shows. We believe its presentations are in contrast with the professionalism of its research.

-At press time, WTTC had not answered our request for clarifications.

-WTTC does not clarify if it includes UK in these EU totals – because the UK is due to leave the EU end-March.

 

Europe’s city counts

6 March 2019

ECM (European Cities Marketing) on 2018 results*:

-City ‘tourism growth’ (we presume bednights in hotels in member cities) +1.9% – domestic +4.0%, international 0.0%. ECM says this is the first time since the 2008 economic crisis that domestic has grown faster. 2012-17 annual average growth rate +4.8%.

-Top performing cities and ranking unchanged – London top even with -8.7%, Paris +8.9%, Berlin +5.2%, Madrid +2.4%, Barcelona +2.7%.

-Main source markets US 12%, Germany 9%, UK 8%. Of the most important source markets, China was fastest +9.2%, US +6% (presumed 6.0), Japan +5.7%, France -2.3%. Italy +1.7%.

*Notes:

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK: What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

-Preliminary data from 58 out of 121 cities, representing 435mn bednights.

 

STR on Brexit

5 March 2019

Some findings by STR (nee Smith Travel Research) on a survey on Brexit’s travel impact:

-61% said Brexit* was not affecting their 2019 travel plans, while 11% said it was. Brexit has had a greater impact on 17%  of British and 15% of European travellers.

-9% of UK travellers said they were less likely to go to Europe in 2019 due to Brexit, and 10% of Europeans said they are less likely to go to the UK.

-38% of Europeans said the Brexit issue had negatively affected their perception of the UK as a visitor destination.

-17% from the rest of the world said they would be less likely to travel to the UK in the future because of Brexit.

*Notes:

Brexit. Term now used loosely. It originally related to the referendum vote in the UK in June 2016 to leave the European Union, since fixed for March 2019. Some reports are written as though the exit has taken place (‘since Brexit’), but which therefore mean since the Brexit vote. But it is now also used to mean the actual exit (‘after Brexit’). The word is ‘BR’ for Great Britain, and ‘exit’ for that. Technically, then, ‘BR’ is wrong to describe the UK, whose formal name is the ‘United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland’. That NI is missed out of ‘Brexit’ is ironic in that NI is one of the three major problems in negotiating the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU.

-STR does not clarify if it includes UK in these EU totals – because the UK is due to leave the EU end-March.

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK: What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

TBA Tracking: February travel stocks’ ups and downs

4 March 2019

Travel stock prices (US, Asia Pacific, Europe) in February. Airlines: biggest growth, China Southern +15%; biggest fall, Norwegian -53% (sic). Hotels: Shangri-La +10%, MGM -10%. Tech: eDreams +9%, Booking -11%. Others: Avis +35%, TUI -32%.

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Southwest +24%; biggest fall, Norwegian -28%. Hotels: Wynn +32%, Shangri-La -12%. Tech: cTrip +25%, Trivago -2%. Others: Boeing +27%, Thomas Cook -5%.

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 224, Asia Pacific 98, Europe 194, US 380. Index previous month: World 227, Asia Pacific 98, Europe 194, US 388.

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 124; previous month 125.

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Shanghai +12%; biggest fall, India -2%. Previous month: biggest growth Istanbul +12%; biggest fall Kuala Lumpur -0.1%.

Comments:

-That shocking fall for Norwegian follows a -28% fall in January. It is now 67% below its end-2017 price. Technically, this fall is making it a cheaper buy for an investor. But would an investor be interested if it seems clear the airline’s business-model is not working?

-Although TUI fell most among Others, Malaysia’s Genting (quoted in Hong Kong) was not far behind, -26%. In fact, a fall for this leisure (include gambling) group, is unusual.

-Also rare to fall is Booking (née Priceline).

-One to watch is ICAG. Although down ‘only’ 10%, is this Brexit related? With three of its airlines based in the EU, it has British based in soon-to-be non-EU UK. For long ICAG has been saying that there would be no problem. Now, although it is still in partial denial, it is clear that some things will change. All options/changes are worse – if it deems current conditions are good.

-Shangri-La fastest hotel stock this month, but last it fell furthest!

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

TBA Tracking: February travel stocks’ ups and downs

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TBA Tracking: February travel stocks’ ups and downs

Travel stock prices (US, Asia Pacific, Europe) in February. Airlines: biggest growth, China Southern +15%; biggest fall, Norwegian -53% (sic). Hotels: Shangri-La +10%, MGM -10%. Tech: eDreams +9%, Booking -11%. Others: Avis +35%, TUI -32%.

 

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Southwest +24%; biggest fall, Norwegian -28%. Hotels: Wynn +32%, Shangri-La -12%. Tech: cTrip +25%, Trivago -2%. Others: Boeing +27%, Thomas Cook -5%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 224, Asia Pacific 98, Europe 194, US 380. Index previous month: World 227, Asia Pacific 98, Europe 194, US 388.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 124; previous month 125.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Shanghai +12%; biggest fall, India -2%. Previous month: biggest growth Istanbul +12%; biggest fall Kuala Lumpur -0.1%.

 

Comments:

-That shocking fall for Norwegian follows a -28% fall in January. It is now 67% below its end-2017 price. Technically, this fall is making it a cheaper buy for an investor. But would an investor be interested if it seems clear the airline’s business-model is not working?

 

-Although TUI fell most among Others, Malaysia’s Genting (quoted in Hong Kong) was not far behind, -26%. In fact, a fall for this leisure (include gambling) group, is unusual.

-Also rare to fall is Booking (née Priceline).

 

-One to watch is ICAG. Although down ‘only’ 10%, is this Brexit related? With three of its airlines based in the EU, it has British based in soon-to-be non-EU UK. For long ICAG has been saying that there would be no problem. Now, although it is still in partial denial, it is clear that some things will change. All options/changes are worse – if it deems current conditions are good.

 

-Shangri-La fastest hotel stock this month, but last it fell furthest!

 

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

 

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Travel Business News February 25 – March 1

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Travel Business News February 25 – March 1

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Global Hotel Alliance in 2018

1 March 2019

GHA* has announced 2018 results. Most information is about its loyalty program, Discovery. Selected business results:

-Same-store room-revenue from Discovery members at US$1.6bn +10% (quoted in US$). Our database shows US$1.51bn +9% in 2017.

-Cross-brand revenue (revenue produced by members enrolled at one GHA company/brand staying in the property of another GHA member) US$108mn +17%. (2017 US$100mn +21%.) This seems a low share, and appears to indicate that the alliance is not working well. GHA reported cross-brand roomnights for 2017 – 500,000 – but data not given for 2018.

-As in 2017, revenue growth came partly from growth in Discovery membership, 13.6mn +21% members at end-2018 – North America 6mn (assume 6.0mn; we calculate +20%), Asia 2.3mn (we calculate +27.8%), Europe 2.2mn (+15.8%), Australasia 1.3mn (+30.0%, although GHA rounded data in 2017 to 1mn).

2017: 11.3mn +25% – North America 5mn (assume 5.0mn), Europe 1.9mn, Asia 1.8mn, Australia/New Zealand 1mn (assume 1.0mn). Rounding by GHA; growth not given.

-In 2018 top-tier Discovery members were 2.6% of active members but produced US$400mn. We calculate that to be a 25% share – which is substantial if correct. 2017 data shows a rounded 3% traffic share but 28% revenue share – thus US$400mn, and meaning no growth in 2018.

-In terms of channel, there was +24% growth on website bookings ($s not given). In 2017 +62% .

-GPA reports that its newish (2016) Discovery app grew 100% in 2018 bookings to US$1m monthly. In the first full-year , 2017, bookings were US$4mn – which indicates that growth in 2018 was +200%, not +100%.

-Discovery members who booked direct paid a 47% (2017 48%) rate premium over the average Discovery rate, despite a 10% direct-booking discount.

-Highest growth of cross-brand bookings was into Dubai +26%, London +20%, Bangkok +15%. In 2017 four cities named – Melbourne +11%, Sydney +10%, London +8%, Bangkok +6%. Also in 2017, GHA named top destinations – Australia +38%, US +13%, Singapore +11% – but not in 2018.

-Receiving most website bookings were almost the same as in 2017 – Pan Pacific Singapore, Adlon Kempinski Berlin, Outrigger Waikiki Beach Honolulu. In 2017 they were Pan Pacific Singapore, Vier Jahreszeiten Kempinski Munich, Outrigger Waikiki Beach Honolulu. No further data.

*Notes:

-GHA is an alliance of small hotel groups – 35 brands, 500 hotels, 75 countries; room count not given. It is not well known publicly, but works well as a back-desk referrer.

-At press time, GHA had not answered our request for clarifications.

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK: What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

WTTC reports on world travel

28 February 2019

WTTC* findings on the world travel business* include:

-The travel business (TTB) in 2018 was worth US$8.8tn.

-TTB growth +3.9%; world GDP growth +3.2%.

-Other sector growth – Manufacturing +4% (rounded by WTTC; we presume from +4.0%), Healthcare +3.1%, Information Technology +1.7%, Financial Services +1.7%.

-TTB 10.4% share of ‘economic activity’ (we are not sure if this ‘EA’ is the same as GDP).

-78.5% +1.0pt share of ‘leisure spend’ (we presume ‘leisure travel spend’), thus 21.5% ‘business spend’ (we presume ‘business travel spend’). No indications of other main categories – we presume MICE is in the ‘business’ total, VFR in ‘leisure’, but other (sport, religion, etc) we cannot categorise, although they probably represent under 10% of the spend total.

-International visitor spend 28.8% +1.5pts share, domestic 71.2%. Note this appears to be only destination spend and not, for instance, air fares – which are included in WTTC’s overall total.

*Notes:

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK: What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

-WTTC (World Travel & Tourism Council), a lobby group for the travel business, has its own methodology for calculating the turnover of the travel business including not just inbound, outbound, and domestic travel, but other industries involved in the business. For instance, if 0.5% of the world’s cars go into the car-rental business, that measure would be calculated into the turnover of the overall travel business.

  Unfortunately, WTTC is not always clear that its data is related to this grand total, and often its commentary appears to be related to just one sector – often, the inbound visitor business. In addition, it sometimes uses the terms ‘travel’ or ‘tourism’ alone; we cannot always determine if these mean something different from ‘travel & tourism’.

  WTTC’s name does not help – the ‘TT’ is ‘travel & tourism’, where we would define ‘travel’ as covering all segments of the travel business, with ‘tourism’ meaning ‘leisure travel’ to most observers, just one segment. This means that most people and bodies the WTTC lobbies may think they are discussing just inbound leisure travel.

  In addition, the group is so careless in its presentations that the professional observer is sometimes left to guess what WTTC’s research shows. We believe its presentations are in contrast with the professionalism of its research.

  At press time, WTTC had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

ITB on Malaysia

27 February 2019

ITBB* on Malaysia, its promotional partner March 2018 through next month’s event:

-Targets 30mn visitors in 2020, which we calculate would be an average +7.8% over the two years. The only time it has counted close to that growth-rate in the past 10 years was +6.7% in 2014. The main reason is that it counts land visitors from Singapore (if Singapore counted visitors from Malaysia in the same way as Malaysia counts visitors from Singapore, then we estimate Singapore’s visitor count would be about 30% bigger than Malaysia’s; with the current system, Singapore shows smaller counts than Malaysia).

-Visitors 2018 25.8mn. Change not given, possibly because this was a fall; we calculate -0.6%.

-Visitor-spend US$24.6bn (at US$1 to MR1.07) in 2020. Change not given.

-Revenue from its homestay program in 2017 was US$6.8mn; change not given, which usually means there was a fall. Homestay visitors (local and foreign) 372,475 – but for 2018, and change not given. We calculate this as around US$18 per visitor, which looks low; ITBB makes no comment, even on whether this is total spend, or just accommodation.

*Notes:

-ITBB=ITB Berlin, the big travel trade exhibition in the city. At press time, ITBB had not answered our request for clarifications.

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK: What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Travel business updates

26 February 2019

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on Middle East hotels in January: occupancy -0.9% to 68.2%, average room rate -8.9% to US$154.18.

[] STR reports on US hotels 17-23 February: occupancy -1.7% to 64.7%, average room rate +1.7% to US$129.05.

[] TBA Tracking: Our calculation of seats sold by the big-3 airline groups in Europe in December, from the current editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows for AF+KL+A5+HV +4%, BA+EI+IB+VY +8%, LH+LX+OS+EW+SN +6%. Last month +3%, +7%, +6%.

 

China to Europe

25 February 2019

EF* report on travel from China into Europe (in this case, the 28 country members of the European Union). Selected extracts:

-Chinese* arrivals in 2018 in EU destinations +5.1%.

-Top-3 destinations in volume: UK +2.4%, Germany +2.6%, France +7.7%.

-Bookings for Jan-Apr 2019 up +16.9%; total world +9.3%.

-Excluding the UK (due to leave the EU end-March), the EU would have been +5.8%, and Jan-Apr 2019 bookings +17.7%. Part of the problem is that a separate visa is required to visit the UK, whereas most of the EU is covered with one visa (the so-called Schengen visa).

-Chinese departures from mainland China were +5.2% in 2018, with bookings +16.7% for Jan-Apr 2019. Tier-2 cities in China – Chengdu, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Xiamen +18.1% and +51.3%. Hong Kong/Macau +7.6% and +35.4%.

*Notes:

-ETC=European Travel Commission, FK=Forward Keys, EF=ETC-FK report on arrival and booking trends.

-FK analyses 17mn flight booking transactions daily from major global reservation systems.

-EF use ‘Chinese’, but this is misleading. Some are China nationals, some residents in China, and some may be China nationals living outside China.

*A full report on this topic in our WYSK: What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.