Outbound Asia. Up 4%?

FOXTROTS 

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance. 

2007 January 29

Outbound
Asia. Up 4%? 

Overall counts on outbound travel for the whole of Asia Pacific in late 2006 (not precise, but estimated from data collected by the Pacific Asia Travel Association), shows that regional growth was 4% year-to-date, and slowing. 

That compares with about 6% growth for all-2005. 

Both sets of figures are slower than growth in inbound travel counts. And that in turn probably shows that the faster inbound growth is being driven from markets inside Asia Pacific. 

Among certain key markets: 

– The
Japan market – once the most-sought-after in Asia Pacific – has struggled for so long that many have forgotten that it still exists. But there is not much in the latest data that seems likely to change this. Year-to-date growth was at 2%, although the most-recent month produced a better 4%. 

–
Australia – becoming a market difficult to read – was up 3% year-to-date, but fell in the latest month. 

end

Sickening trend. Or Unhealthy growth?

FOXTROTS 

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance. 

2006 May 30

Sickening trend. Or Unhealthy growth? 

I refer to what is called medical tourism, but I will resist any more puns, and continue with the facts. 

Dr Ridzwan Bakar of the Asian Hospital Federation says that there were over 2mn visitors in
India, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand in 2005 who combined their trip with some sort of medical procedure at a hospital or clinic. That would be near-6% of the total (depending on who’s counting), and probably a higher share than most thought. 

Bakar also said health tourists spent an average US$362 daily compared with US$144 for leisure travellers. But none of his data was sourced, and so for the present should probably be considered just an indication. 

But the business seems likely to grow at a rate faster than general travel. Although as with VFR (visiting friends/relatives), it may be difficult to clearly measure. 

Some may be related to general leisure travel, but more likely not. After all, the head of Bumrungrad hospital in Bangkok – which has been successful at attracting patients from outside Thailand – says ‘Sun, Sand, and Surgery’ is a myth. 

“The first thing a doctor tells you after a procedure is ‘Don’t go in the sun, don’t swim, don’t go in the sand, don’t drink, and don’t over-exert yourself.'” 

But there may be medical business for hotels. Bumrungrad owns two small hotels in the grounds of the hospital, although it manages these itself. But – just as some hotel groups, mainly in the
US, actually run the service sector of hospitals – there will be opportunities to run pure-hotel operations where the main or only clientele is related to the hospital.  end

Thailand. Selling online?

FOXTROTS

Fox – sly. Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.
Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

2007 January 26

Thailand. Selling online?

The Tourism Authority of Thailand, the country’s national tourist office, has launched an emarketing campaign – ThailandHotDeal.com.

Its target is to get 20,000 online bookings through this August selling US$5.3mn (at US$1 to B37.7) of travel – which would mean an average US$265 for each booking.

Earlier, the TAT ran a similar program, and sold US$2.1mn online for the destination’s six Andaman-Sea provinces through April 2006.

The new program covers all Thailand. There are 27 target markets – which in practical terms, means most of the markets where the TAT has at least some activity. But the offers can be booked in other markets.

The word “hot” is intended to mean “bargain” to travellers. For that reason, the sales might not be to new customers, but just those seeking a special deal. Over 100 hotels have created special prices and packages for ThailandHotDeal.

Last year’s military coup in Thailand may not have affected tourist traffic – if it remains bloodless. And this online program was also unlikely to be affected. But the end-of-year bombs in Bangkok will certainly reduce potential – although genuine bargains usually overcome fear. And so does the attraction of the sex business in Thailand – travellers looking for sex are less likely to be turned away by bombs.

However, there may be some change in business traffic – which, of course, is included in the overall visitor count. The government’s anti-foreign-business moves might cause change.

end

Middle East. Airports up in first-half.

FOXTROTS 

 

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance. 

 

 

2007 January 24

 

 

 

Middle East. Airports up in first-half. 

 

 

The total number of passengers passing through airports in the
Middle East* increased 11% in the first half of this year to 53mn. That growth is double the worldwide rate. 

 

According to the data, from ACI (Airports Council International), the bulk of the traffic (80%) is international, and that is also growing at a faster rate – near-14%. 

 

Dubai remains by far the airport with the largest international traffic in the region – over 30%. But apart from that some of the results from the first half could indicate changing patterns. 

 

They include (based on international traffic): 

 

–
Abu Dhabi. Its overall 10% growth indicates (faster) growth at Etihad is being countered by reduced activity by other airlines. 

 

–
Bahrain. Is its 29% growth just a surge from Gulf Air or is it related to
Abu Dhabi realities, see above? 

 

–
Beirut (up 4%),
Cairo (up 9%). Both affected by external non-travel events which can distort analysis on current figures. 

 

–
Dubai. Onwards and upwards. Up 32%. 

 

– Jeddah (up 8%),
Kuwait (up 7%). Missing out on regional growth? 

 

–
Muscat, Sharjah. Still small. But
Muscat is now larger than, say,
Amman. And although Sharjah’s 41% growth (fastest in the region) is mainly self-generated, some would, in effect, be related to
Dubai demand. And thus making
Dubai’s growth even more remarkable. 

 

The region’s domestic traffic numbers are generally small, for obvious reasons. Only
Cairo and the three airports in
Saudi Arabia counted more than 1mn each in the first six months. (Note that domestic traffic would normally also include helicopter flights.) 

 

(*
Damascus and
Doha are the only major non-members of ACI in the region. As a result, their data is not included here.) 

 

end

India. Travel spending confusion.

FOXTROTS 

 

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance. 

 

 

2007 January 22

 

 

 

India. Travel spending confusion. 

 

 

New date from the World Tourism Organisation on
India’s travel spending supports the evidence that statistics lie. 

 

Earlier figures indicated that
India‘s travel deficit (amount spent on outbound travel by residents minus amount spent in
India by inbound visitors) increased substantially in 2005. 

 

New figures – in theory final – indicate a near-completely-different outlook. 

 

To reach these totals WTO adds up amounts spent in other destinations by travellers from
India (or, depending on the destination, Indian-citizen travellers, who may live in
India or other countries) but takes
India’s own figures for spending by foreign visitors in
India. 

 

This usually means that figures for outbound-spend will change – not only because different periods of time as measured, which is understood, but sometimes new figures are received for periods past. 

 

Usually, inbound-spend does not change much – because of the single source – with only currency fluctuations causing differences. 

 

But in 2005? The WTO reports a growth of 17% in spend by visitors to US$7.4bn – but based on data the WTO released earlier, growth calculates to 54%. 

 

There has also been changes in the data given for outbound spend – but not so great as for inbound. 

 

The main result of these changes is that travel is no longer in deficit. There is actually a surplus – visitors to
India spent US$1.5bn more than Indians travelling overseas. 

 

The other significant change is that this indicates that outbound travel from
India is not growing as fast as has been reported – or as believed. Although current reported growth on spending – 12% – is fast, it is below general conception of the market, which is more like 20% and above. 

 

Current data indicates that in 2005 visitors in
India spent 26% more than
India residents spent overseas. 

 

 

end

TUI. Michael Frenzel.

FOXTROTS 

 

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance. 

 

 

2007 January 20

 

 

TUI. Michael Frenzel. 

 

Is Michael Frenzel losing his grip as head of
Germany’s giant tour operator, TUI? 

 

We look to
France, where Eric Debry, the head of TUI’s Nouvelles Frontieres, has jumped, or was pushed, after years of losses – before and after TUI took over. 

 

This seems to confirm failure. TUI took over NF when it was a successful marketing operation, but doing badly – it was then run by founder Jacques Maillot, who is/was a brilliant concept man, but found that managing the success he created much more difficult. 

 

Frenzel presumably thought German efficiency would simply replace the inefficiency. But the concept and moral got lost along the way, so there was not much of a business to run – efficiently or not. 

 

And now NF – once a leader (like Club Med, another French company that has lost its pre-eminence), is now reduced to catching up with competitors rather than leading them. 

 

If Frenzel cannot see his mistakes in this operation, he may not be capable of adapting TUI to the new world realities in travel retailing. Or, rather, travel selling – because retailing and wholesaling and others are now intermixed. 

 

end

Hotels. Rich Mandarins in Tokyo.

FOXTROTS 

 

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance. 

 

2007 January 17

 

 

 

Hotels. Rich Mandarins in
Tokyo. 

 

 

The Hong Kong-based Mandarin Oriental hotel group has made a stunning start with its year-old hotel in
Tokyo. 

 

We believe the hotel’s average room rate is running at over US$500 – which would make it the city’s rate leader. 

 

We are not clear about occupancy levels. At the start of 2006 they were not so high, probably close to 60%. But they likely grew over the year, along with
Japan‘s economy – because the other remarkable factor about the hotel is that a high share of business is domestic, perhaps 80%. 

 

The product (the hotel itself and service) seems to warrant this auspicious result. This includes a high (particularly for high-cost
Japan) staff:room ratio of 2.5:1. And all but about 10 of the 450 staff are Japanese. 

 

Mandarin Oriental already sets a high standard with its hotels. This
Tokyo hotel, along with its new one in
Hong Kong and, probably, the original MO in
Hong Kong, now reopened, may put the company a notch higher. 

 

We also hear that the group’s hotel in
New York is also reporting stunning results. Part of this is undoubtedly because of overall results in
New York; these days, it is hard to be doing badly in
New York. 

 

end