Travel Industry Data Updates, May 20-24.

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FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data Updates, May 20-24.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Travel business updates

24 May 2019

[] ARC (the Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines), reports for April: air tickets sold US$9.05bn +5.9%; average US roundtrip ticket US$499, flat; passenger trips 27.7mn +4% (domestic – +4.2%, international +3.9%.); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$8.5mn +23.7%; EMD transactions +4%.

[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in Q1 at 20.4mn +2.6%.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports:

-Middle East hotels occupancy +4.1% to 74.6%, average room rate -7.1% to US$148.28:

-US hotels 12-18 May occupancy +0.8% to 70.8%, average room rate +1.4% to US$134.36:

-US hotels April occupancy +0.3 at 68.0%, average room rate +0.9% to US$131.85

[] Travel Mole reports India’s airline seat sales in April were 10.9mn -4.5%.

 

ITB China

23 May 2019

Some data from ITB China (ITBC), held in Shanghai 15-17 May (most growth calculations are ours, from ITBC data published in 2018):

-Total attendees 17,000 +13.3%.

-Conference attendees 4000 +0.0%, speakers 120 +0.0%, topics 70 +0.0%.

-Buyers 850 +6.3%. 40% from 2nd- and 3rd-tier cities. No data in 2018 – just 73% from outside Shanghai.

-Exhibitors 800 +14.3% from 84 +5.0% countries.

-Buyers circle, new in 2019 – 30 agents from 400 agencies.

-Media 300 +15.4%.

 

ICCA on 2018 meetings

22 May 2019

ICCA* has issued its report for 2018. We include some baseline data here, but brief as ICCA’s data is based on single-year counts.

  Our main analysis is based on multi-year results. We are motivated by those in the MICE segment of the travel business – who tell us that single-year figures can be misleading. As a result, we calculate average-annual totals based on 5-year periods – to balance out distortions caused by unusually-big or -small events in one year.

  Surprisingly, the industry itself still works on annual figures! Even more surprising is that in 2013 ICCA said it was following our lead and tracking results in 5-year averages. Despite that, all its analysis and observations continues to be based on single-year figures!

  Our report on this topic is included in the June issue of our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. This contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Some excerpts from ICCA’s single-year data (our calculations on growth):

-12,937 +3.0% meetings.

-Top-3 countries, largest first, US +0.6%, Germany -5.9%, Spain +5.5%. Of note among others, France +14.4%, UK -3.0% (is that Brexit-related?).

-Top-2 from Asia Pacific (only two in published top-10) Japan +18.8%, China +19.4%.

-Top-3 cities Paris +11.6%, Vienna -9.5%, Madrid +7.8%. Of note among others, Barcelona -16.4% (is that Catalonia-troubles related?), London -15.3% (is that Brexit-related?).

-Top-2 from Asia Pacific (only two in published top-10) Singapore -9.4%, Bangkok +22.7%.

*Notes:

-ICCA’s counts are meetings of associations (and follow precise definitions), and thus are just one segment of the big MICE business. We have not seen estimates, but we would be surprised if ICCA’s segment was more than 20% of the total. Why do these counts attract so much interest? (Possibly, we answer ourselves, because no other worldwide trade body tracks the whole MICE business.)

-Until 2009, ICCA gave us additional information for our analysis, but has refused this since. Full data is reserved for ICCA members; a policy with which we agree, even if it causes us some difficulty. As a result, however, our coverage is now limited to meetings numbers, rather than adding commentary on attendance numbers as well.

-ICCA was initially an abbreviation for the International Congress and Conventions Association. Then it used ICCA as a name, which it described as The International Meetings Association. It has now reverted to almost the same – ICCA, International Congress and Convention Association.

-A report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst, contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Travel business updates

21 May 2019

[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in April at 6.5mn +1.8%, YTD 27.0mn +3.4%.

[] Greece’s DMO reports air arrivals Mar -0.2%, YTD +7.7%. Bank of Greece all arrivals Feb +4.0%, YTD +7.0%; spend +29.6%, +41.1%.

[] Ireland‘s growth in visitors will slow over 2018-23, forecasts Global Data (GD). After +3.8% over 2014-18, GD forecasts +3.8% 2018-23.

Its counts show 6.8mn in 2014, 9.3mn +7% (GD rounded) in 2018, and it forecasts +3.9% this year, to 9.7mn. Growth from the UK, leading market, will fall from +6.8% in 2018, to forecast +1.7% this year.

GD says markets in Europe (GD does not include the UK in Europe, although it is) accounted for a 76% share.

Also noted is a forecast +7% this year (GD rounded).

[] MKG* reports Jan-Apr hotel occupancy in Europe* +0.2pt, and what appears to be average room rate (MKG’s description is ‘average price’) +1.5%.

*Notes:

-No definition given for ‘Europe’; we presume it is a list of destinations from which MKG collects data.

-MKG (a France-based hotel consultancy; name origin unknown) focuses on hotel revpar (revenue per available room), which has little marketing value to those outside the hotel business. As a result, we reduce our report to measures other than revpar.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels 5-11 May: occupancy -0.3% to 68.3%, average room rate +1.2% to US$131.72.

 

PATA on 2018 counts

20 May 2019

PATA* reports for 2018:

-Arrivals 699.6mn +7.7%.

-Over 2014-18, Southeast Asia gained 1.34pts of share, North America lost 1.55pts.
-China counted most visitors, 161mn, 22.6% of the Asia Pacific total. However, this includes some movement that we would term ‘excursionist’, particularly land-traffic between China, Hong Kong, Macau. As PATA gives no additional information, it is not possible to determine what share this land-crossing traffic represents.

-AAGRs over 2014-18, Japan +24%, Vietnam +18% respectively. (PATA rounded.) PATA also includes Cyprus in this section. Cyprus is actually an island in the Mediterranean Sea, but PATA erroneously reports it as being in (geographically-non-existent) ‘West Asia’.

*Notes:

-PATA=Pacific Asia Travel Association. PATA’s 39 destinations include many not usually associated with Asia Pacific – such as Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, US, and sometimes Cyprus and Turkey (yes; but, ironically, not Turkey-recognised North Cyprus). PATA’s data should thus be read with that qualification in mind. PATA gives no support (including response to questions) to subscription publishing groups such as ours, and so we are unable to clarify what may be misleading.

-PATA also shows percentage growth in some destinations. We have not shown this because as we have remarked before, a growth from 150,000 visitors to 300,000 is an impressive-sounding +100%. Likewise, growth in numbers. We would show both these if PATA reported the actual figures.

-PATA has reported other data – such as growth without the total – but not actionable data, and so we have not shown these.

-The point of our analysis is that PATA seems to make this seem like a publicity exercise and not to inform.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

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TBA Tracking: April travel stocks’ ups and downs

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FOXTROTS*

 

 

TBA Tracking: April travel stocks’ ups and downs

Travel stock prices (US, Asia Pacific, Europe) in April.

 

Airlines: biggest growth, Jet Blue +14%; biggest fall, Norwegian -13%.

Hotels: Dusit +21%, Jinjiang -8%.

Tech: eDreams +15%, Amadeus -5%.

China travel stocks (new): HNA (airline, not group; China quote) +0.5%, Jinjiang (HK quote) -8%.

Others: Disney +19%, Thomas Cook -13%.

 

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Jet Airways +21%; biggest fall, Norwegian -24%. Hotels: NH +7%, Wyndham -10%. Tech: cTrip +28%, Trivago -14%. Others: Eurotunnel +4%, Thomas Cook -18%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 228, Asia Pacific 97, Europe 197, US 390. Index previous month: World 222, Asia Pacific 100, Europe 194, US 371.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 132; previous month 128.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth New York-Travel Weekly +12%; biggest fall Shanghai -0.4%. Previous month: biggest growth India +8%; biggest fall Istanbul -10%.

 

Comments:

-Among airlines, Wizz wozz alzo gudd, +13%. India’s Jet was actually lowest, -50% (yes), but it has stopped flying and seems likely to shut down, and so that is a special price.

 

-Among hotels, Wynn was also good, +19%. And two giants showed impressive growth – Choice and Marriott, both +12%.

 

-Among Others, TUI also did well – strangely the opposite of its direct competitor, Thomas Cook. TUI was +13% in its Germany quote, +16% in its UK quote.

 

-Among travel-tech, a fall for Amadeus, -5%, is unusual. To be the fastest faller is even rarer.

 

-Among stockmarkets, Kuala Lumpur’s also fell 0.4%, but fractionally below, where Shanghai was fractionally above.

 

-We have started a China-travel-stocks-track – of China companies, not just China quotes. Our quotes are from Hong Kong and New York as well as Shanghai markets. Oddly, HNA, the airline part of the trouble HNA group, is doing better in China, +0.5%, than the group is doing in Hong Kong, -3%. In HK, trading in HNAG shares is currently suspended.

 

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.