FOXTROTS*
Travel-Industry-Data News, March 4-8.
From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com
Travel Business Humour
Compiled by The Fox
A new section where we try to look lightly at the travel business. Each entry will be one from each category – Jokes; LetaLite; Travel Industry-V-Real World.
Jokes
-If Delta merges with United, will everyone be Delited?
LetaLite
We take a word or phrase, alter it by adding, cutting, or changing just one letter – and give it a new definition:
-Air Alta. Maltese airline bought by the Vatican.
Travel industry -versus- Real world
-Travel Industry phrase: We are a niche operator
-Real World meaning: Business is still not very good
Travel business updates
8 March 2024
[] Our summary of TDN* report on ITBB*:
-Note 1. Shown here if new, or different from other reports this week.
–100,000 visitors, which we calculate is +11.0%, -37.5% compared with pre-covid 2019.
-Media 3200, which we calculate is -4.0%, -41.3% compared with the last time ITBB published this data pre-covid, in 2017.
-Media from 103 countries/territories, which we calculate is +90.7% compared with the last time ITBB published this data, in 2021.
-Featured country Oman counted 4mn +22% visitors in 2023, of which 231,000 +182% came from Germany.
*Notes:
-ITBB = ITB Berlin, the annual travel trade exhibition in the city, generally held in early March. Frequently issues reports on the travel business, of which this is one.
-TDN is Greece-based publication Travel Daily News.
[] Our summary of STR* report on US hotels:
Weekly 7-day periods through:
2 March occupancy (against comparable week in 2023) 62.5% (-0.3%), average room rate US$155.29 (+2.7%)
-24 February 62.0% (-3.3%) US$156.62 (+0.3%)
-17 February 59.2% (-2.5%) US$162.24 (+4.2%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-January 56.2% (-0.3%) US$149.76 (+5.1%)
-December 50.1% (-7.1%) US$163.58 (-2.8%)
-November 49.4% (-1.4%) US$138.29 (+0.9%)
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
Travel business updates
7 March 2024
[] Lufthansa 2023 results:
Group
-Seat sales 123mn, which we calculate is +20.6%.
-Revenue US$38.5bn, which we calculate is +14.6% (which we have converted at US$1 to €0.92).
-Operating profit US$2.93bn, which we calculate is +80.0%.
-Seat capacity 84% of 2019.
-Seat load factor 83% +3.1pts.
Passenger airlines
-Revenue US$30.8bn, which we calculate is +24.1%.
-Operating profit US$2.17bn (2022 US$326mn loss).
Forecasts
-Booked load factors Mar-May above 2023 level. Note 1. 1, Not known if seat- or total-load factor. 2, Period not clear; ‘next three months’.
-Capacity this year +12%, 94% compared with 2019.
-Operating profit this year, same as 2023.
[] Our summary of TDN* report on the travel business, with data from PCW* (together, TP):
-Travel turnover above US$2tn this year and in 2025. Note 1. As stated; as fact, not forecast, and with no reference to other data.
-In pre-covid 2019 share of North America, Europe/Middle East, Asia each 33%. In 2022 North America 40%, then Europe, then Asia. Note 2. As stated; no shares given for other regions; for 2022, ME not shown with Europe, although that may be an editing error.
-Forecasts 2025 shares will revert to 33% each.
-Germany 2024 bookings above 2019.
-Germany winter holiday season +11% above ‘2019’. Note 3. Season noted as ‘just ended’, although normally measured as Nov-Mar. 2, Not known if comparison is with 2018/9 or 2019/20.
-Forecasts Germany summer +13%.
*Notes:
-PCW is Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data, or Phocuswire, a news outlet. The Northstar travel group bought it in 2011 from the late founder Philip C Wolf, after whom it had been named PhoCusWright.
-TDN is Greece-based publication Travel Daily News.
Travel business updates
6 March 2024
[] Our summary of WTTC* report on the travel business (TTB):
-‘Double-digit’ growth in visitor arrivals from ‘key’ source markets ‘such as’ Greece, Spain, UK. Note 1. As stated, this has little marketing value.
-‘More’ travellers from the US will visit Germany this year. Note 2. As stated, this has no marketing value.
-Arrivals into Greece +20%, Portugal +20%, Spain +13%. Note 3. No other data or dates given, making this of little marketing value.
-Estimated 2023 TTB was US$9.5tn, 9.2% of world GDP. In 2033, forecast to be 11.6% of world GDP, after growing at twice the rate of the rest of the economy. Note 4. Without further data, it is not easy to calculate what growth this would mean for TTB. But we calculate that on our positive estimate of +2.5% AAGR (annual average growth rate) for GDP, WTTC is estimating TTB’s AAGR will be around +5.2%.
-TTB caused 8.1% of global emissions in 2019. Note 5. No further data or information (CO2 or other?).
*Notes:
-WTTC = World Travel & Tourism Council. A UK-based lobby group for the travel business, established in 1990.
-From 2021, WTTC has claimed that it ‘represents’ the worldwide travel business. This is wrong (the WTTC does not represent us, for example), and surprisingly egocentric. We had hoped that this was a temporary editorial mis-statement.
[] WAS* reports that ACI* forecasts world air seat sales will be 9.7bn this year; international 4bn, domestic 5.7bn. It forecasts the total will be above pre-covid 2019.
*Notes:
-ACI = Airports Council International. Canada-based association for commercial airports.
-WAS is Washington Aviation Summary, a monthly publication produced by US-based legal company, Kirstein & Young.
-Changes not given.
-Rounding by ACI.
Travel business updates
5 March 2024
[] Our summary of AAPA* report on international seat sales of its member airlines:
-In December 27.9mn +66.2%. January-December 278.4mn +161%.
-Top-3 airlines, December only: Singapore 2.23mn +25.7%, Cathay P 1.78mn +122%, Korean 1.10mn +39.0%.
-Other usually-big airlines, December only: All Nippon 631k +38.1%, Japan 549k +21.1%.
*Notes: AAPA = Kuala Lumpur-based Association of Asia Pacific Airlines. Only 13 member airlines because from its beginning (as Orient Airlines Association) it limited membership, most notably excluding any airline from China and India.
[] Data on ITBB*, running March 5-7:
–Note 1. ITBB does not provide comparative data, but based on data from our database, the exhibition has still not recovered to pre-covid 2019 levels. In some measures, the shortfall is big enough that this may indicate a change in marketing patterns.
-Exhibition area booked 150,000sqm. Note 2. We calculate this is -6.3% compared with the last time ITBB published this data, in 2018.
-International participation 87%. Note 3. 62% the last time ITBB published this data, in 2000.
-1300 in Buyers Circle. Note 4. 1, ITBB’s definition for selected buyers, usually more important ones, but sometimes those to give a balance. 2, We have no comparative data.
–5500 exhibitors. Note 5. We calculate this is -45.0% compared with 2019.
–Exhibitors came from 170 +5.6% countries/territories, which we calculate was -6.1% compared with 2019.
-Conference 24,000 attendees, no change. Note 6. We calculate this is -14.3% compared with the last time ITBB published this data pre-covid, in 2017. The data was published before the event, and therefore we presume it was an estimate/forecast.
*Notes: ITBB = ITB Berlin, the annual travel trade exhibition in the city, generally held in early March.
Travel business updates
4 March 2024
[] Our summary of an IATA* report on January air traffic:
-Worldwide RPKs +16.6%, ASKs +14.1%, load factor 79.9% +1.7pt.
-RPKs by region – Asia Pacific +31.8%, Europe +10.0%, North America +6.0%.
-International RPKs +20.8% – Asia Pacific +45.4%, Europe +10.8%, North America +12.3%.
-Domestic RPKs +10.4% – Australia +5.3%, Brazil +0.2%, China +33.2%, India +3.9%, Japan +2.9%, Russia NA, US +3.1%.
*Notes:
-IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.
-In 2022, IATA misleadingly changed its practice of comparing data with the same period in pre-covid 2019, and now compares with 2023, which has less value for understanding progress. IATA provides some comparisons with 2019, but we do not have the data to enable us to calculate the missing measures.
-Where rounded, by IATA.
[] Accor on travel trends in Europe in 2024:
-Note 1. 1, The report uses nationality definitions – ‘French’ ‘Polish’ etc. But not clear if these refer to nationals living in any country, or only those living in the country of their nationality, or residents in that country of any nationality. 2, Because of poor editing, much of the following has little marketing value.
-54% will spend more, but 87% plan ‘saving measures’. Note 2. Appears contradictory, although there is an additional contradiction that increased costs automatically means travel spend will be higher.
-64% of ‘Poles’ are most confident in [spending more], then ‘Germans’ 61%, ‘French’ 54%. Lowest ‘Italy’ (sic) 44%.
-27% will book ‘more affordable’ accommodation, 27% will reduce expenses. Note 3. Not clear if percentages of 87% or 100%.
-74% of ‘French’ people will travel to Europe this year.
-For 20%, the ‘bleisure’ trend is confirmed. Note 4. As stated, this has little marketing value.
-For ‘French’ travellers, 27% go to Spain, 21% Italy, 16% Portugal.
-For travellers other than ‘French’ travelling in Europe, 23% go to Spain, 18% Italy, 16% France, 13% Portugal, 13% Greece. Travelling outside Europe, 16% go to North ‘or’ Central America, 16% Asia.
-71% say ‘sustainability is important’ in their travel decisions – 87% for ‘Italians’, 78% ‘Spanish’, 77% ‘Poles’, 75% ‘French’, 61% ‘British’.
-77% say climate concerns ‘will have an impact’ on their travel or booking activity. 11% will travel less, 14% fly less, 10% look for ‘eco-friendly’ accommodation or tour operators.
-20% avoid peak season because of climate change. Note 5. Hard to understand this finding. For instance, skiers cannot avoid peak season if they want to ski.
-32% will avoid the peak season to cut costs, 19% to ‘avoid the risk’ of heat waves. Note 5.
-35% follow recommendations from friends and family on destinations, 29% follow reviews on online sites, 17% to brand loyalty, 12% are influenced by destinations seen on social media, 12% are influenced by a travel agent.
-17% will travel alone, 9% will take their pet.
-19% plan to take a car trip, 9% boat or cruise, 3% luxury train. Note 6. 1, 69% balance not given. 2, Not known what share take a train trip that is not luxury.
The Fox. Remember, I’ll be famous after I’m dead.
*Fox – sly. Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning. Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.
Foxtrots 