What’s working, what’s not – airlines in Europe and Asia Pacific

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FOXTROTS*

 

Double WYSKs:

What’s working, what’s not – airlines in Europe and Asia Pacific

WYSK = What You Should Know

 

Airlines in Europe

Our summary of traffic results for the leading airlines in Europe, excerpts from the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, over January-September. Seat sales (RPKs for British; our estimates for Ryan): Air France+Hop +3%; British +1%; Easyjet +10%; Lufthansa +5%; Ryanair +12%.

 

Notes (on notable details; on whole-group for Air France, British (=ICAG), Lufthansa):

-Air France. KLM growing at twice AF’s rate. Transavia seat factor still good, around 90%, but beware – growth slowing.

 

-British (=ICAG). The engine for growth has been Iberia, but will the Catalan crisis threaten this, although IB is growing 4x as fast as BA?! AerLingus still good growth albeit slowing. But the weakness seems to be Vueling, once the group’s star. Only +1% in the month and +2% YTD. V’s slowdown started before the Catalan crisis so cannot all be blamed on that – although it will be, of course.

 

-Easyjet looks good all round.

 

-Lufthansa. Small seems to be beautiful; growth smallest at the biggest (of the group’s five sizeable airlines), and biggest at the smallest – if you can follow that. The group’s Americas routes are falling; these are combined and so we do not know if the problem is North, South, or both.

 

-Ryanair. Don’t say anything, but growth is slowing, albeit still a super level for such a big airline. Some must be related to the airline’s flight cancellations. Seat factor at near-unbelievable levels, 97%. We suspect management is somehow also including bookings on cancelled flights, and rebookings to other flights.

 

 

 

Airlines in Asia Pacific

Our summary of traffic results for the leading airlines in Asia Pacific, excerpts from the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, over January-September. Seat sales at biggest FSAs (full-service-airlines) in Asia Pacific (whole-group results for all): Air China +4%; Cathay flat; China Eastern +8%; China Southern +10%; Japan (estimate) +2%; Singapore +2%.

 

Notes (on notable details):

-Air China. Fall on international routes; what’s happening?

 

-Cathay. Is ‘flat’ good news – because it is not a fall?

 

-China Eastern. International (including Hong Kong) growing twice the rate of domestic.

 

-China Southern. Same as CE.

 

-Japan. No comment.

 

-Singapore. Some results look right, but: Scoot/Tiger seat factor too low at 85%; Silk’s a disaster at 73%. Will traffic growth – a good +7% for SAG – pull the group out of trouble?

 

The Fox

Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

 

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

 

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Double WYSKs: What’s working, what’s not – airlines in Europe; Travel Stocks’ ups and downs.

Leave a comment

FOXTROTS*

 

Double WYSKs:

What’s working, what’s not – airlines in Europe;

Travel Stocks’ ups and downs.

WYSK = What You Should Know.

 

 

What’s working; what’s not. Airlines in Europe

January-August seat sales (RPKs for British; our estimates for Ryan): Air France+Hop +3%; British +1%; Easyjet +9%; Lufthansa +5%; Ryanair +10%.

 

Notes (on notable details; on whole-group for Air France, British, Lufthansa):

 

Air France group starting to look good. But contrary to some news reports, the group’s stock price is the 2nd-worst performer in our TBA-100 Airline Index.

 

British. The problem is now Spain. The group has two airlines based in Barcelona – Level (sic) and Vueling – plus Iberia in Madrid. They will surely be hurt by Catalonia government’s attempted political coup d’etat.

 

Easyjet starting to produce solid monthly gains around 10%. But when will the Brexit shadow fall? (Despite what the airline says, it can only partly solve the problem by creating an EU-based airline, which would have to be majority-EU-owned.)

 

Lufthansa roars ahead thanks to its Eurowing subsidiary, and its newest group member, Brussels (although that growth is mainly a rebound from terrorist-caused falls in 2016).

 

Ryanair growth is slowing but should still become world’s largest no-frills-airline with next month’s counts, overtaking Southwest. Still producing awesome seat factors (remember though, that this includes passenger no-shows).

 

 

 

Travel Stocks’ ups and downs

Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in October. Airlines: biggest growth, Turkish +19%; biggest fall, Alaska -13%. Hotels: Millennium & Copthorne +34%, Banyan -7%. Tech: Amadeus +6%, Trivago -33% sic. Others: HNA +25%, Walt Disney -1%.

 

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, SAS +33%; biggest fall, Jet AW -17%. Hotels: Jinjiang +31%, Millennium & Copthorne -4%. Tech: Amadeus +6%, Trivago -30% sic. Others: Airbus +14%, Star Cruises -9%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 236, AsPac 114, Eur 199, US 394. Index previous month: World 229, AsPac 108, Eur 188, US 391.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 124; previous month 130.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Tokyo +8%; biggest fall Kuala Lumpur -0.4%. Previous month: Frankfurt +6%; Istanbul -7%.

 

Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

 

 

 

The Fox

Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

 

 

*FOXTROTS

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.