Obamania. Infects travel.

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FOXTROTS

 

 

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning. 

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

 

2009 January 26

Obamania. Infects travel.

Worldwide interest in the new US president Barack Hussein Obama is also being felt in the travel business. Obama has been recruited to promote travel – to some of the many places with which he can be associated.

 

This is not the first time that a new US president has motivated tourism, although an international connection is not common. For instance, Plains got a visitor boost when President Carter was elected, and so did Crawford in Texas for President Bush.

 

In order of credibility, Obamania venues include:

 

[] Hawaii, Obama’s birthplace, is the most likely to enjoy an Obaboom. An Obama Tour visits the places he lived (an apartment tower with his grandmother, and a smaller apartment block where his mother and sister lived), his school (Punahou, in the 1970s, when he graduated), where he played basketball, went to the movies, and first went to work. It’s all there; well, almost.

 

[] Chicago, Obama’s current home town; the city’s visitor authorities suggest visitors to “experience the city the Obamas enjoy”. The Illinois Bureau of Tourism has a 3-day getaway promotion featuring Barack Obama sites, including the visit of its Chicago neighbourhood at Hyde Park (where he currently lives). The package should be available from January 20, when Obama is due to be sworn in as president.

 

[] In Jakarta, Indonesia, the small art-deco-style small house where Obama (and his mother with her second (Indonesian) husband) stayed in the early 1970s, starting getting visitors after Obama’s nomination as a presidential candidate last August. Same for the school he attended there.

 

[] At some travel trade shows, Kenya’s visitor-promotion-office displays a giant picture of the future US president and distributes Obama pins. Tour operators from markets in Europe and North America take travellers for one day or more in Kogelo area, the land of Obama’s forefathers.

 

[] Most surprising, perhaps, is the growth of visitors to the city of Obama – yes there is one, but in Japan! The port city, 400km west of Tokyo with a population of only 32,000, has experienced a growing interest from Japanese travellers. The Obama-hype has prompted Obama city to produce souvenirs such as T-shirts and chopsticks showing pictures of the president-elect.

 

Question: Will Busch Gardens in Florida now change its name? 

 

 

The Fox

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Crisis Market Monitor.

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FOXTROTS

 

 

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning. 

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

 

2009 January 23

Crisis Market Monitor.

Excerpt from Travel Business Analyst, Asia Pacific edition.

Data shown here may also be shown differently in the Travel Business Analyst newsletters. Not all sources shown, for reasons of brevity; not shown are usually relevant principals.

 

• AsPac airlines (AAPA) international seat sales: Sep -8.2%.

• AsPac travel stocks index: Sep 73; Oct 57.

• AsPac IATA air traffic (RPKs), Sep: -6.8%. Oct: -6.1%.

• Australia resident departures: Sep +2.7%.

• Australia visitor arrivals: Sep -7.6%.

• Bali visitor arrivals: Sep +18.7; Oct +23.8%.

• Eva Air seat sales, Sep: -14.3%. Oct: -3.0%.

• Cathay Pacific seat sales: Sep -0.7%; Oct +2.6%.

• China Southern seat sales: Sep -0.9%; Oct +8.3%.

• China foreign visitor arrivals: Sep -15.1%; Oct -11.5%.

• Hawaii visitor arrivals: Sep -18.5%; Oct -12.3%.

• Hong Kong airport passengers, Sep: -4.7%.

• Hong Kong visitor arrivals: Sep +3.5%; Oct -1.4%.

• India visitor arrivals, Sep: +1.5%.

• Japan Airlines intl seat sales: Sep -17.1%; Oct -12.8%.

• Japan citizen departures: Sep -9.7%; Oct -9.5%.

• Japan visitor arrivals: Sep -6.9%; Oct -5.9%.

• Jet Airways seat sales, Oct: -1.7%.

• Macau visitor arrivals: Sep +2.1%; Oct +2.2%.

• Korea resident departures: Sep -12.1%; Oct -5.8%.

• Korea visitor arrivals, Sep: +3%.

• Maldives visitor arrivals: Sep +4.6%; Oct -4.0%.

• New Zealand visitor arrivals, Sep: -8%.

• Qantas Group seat sales, Sep: -0.2%.

• Singapore air passengers, Sep: -0.3%.

• Singapore Airlines seat sales: Sep -1.6%; Oct +1.3%.

• Singapore airport passengers, Sep: +4.5%.

• Singapore visitor arrivals: Sep -4.1%; Oct -8.1%.

• Taiwan resident departures: Sep -13.3%; Oct -4.9%.

• Thai Airways seat sales, Oct: -12.2%.

• Tokyo Narita airport passengers, Sep: -10.1%.

• Vietnam visitor arrivals, Oct: -11%.

• Industry IATA air traffic (RPKs): Sep -2.9%; Oct -1.3%.

• London ‘luxury’ hotels Oct: occupancy -3.7%; rate -5.0%.

• New York ‘luxury’ hotels Oct: occupancy -5.7%; rate -6.5%.

• US hotels Oct: occupancy -6.5%; rate -0.5%.

• US Thanksgiving holiday; trips -1.4%.

 

 

 

The Fox

Crisis Market Monitor.

Leave a comment

FOXTROTS

 

 

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning. 

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

 

2009 January 22

Crisis Market Monitor

Excerpt from Travel Business Analyst, Europe edition.

Data shown here may also be shown differently in the Travel Business Analyst newsletters. Not all sources shown, for reasons of brevity; not shown are usually relevant principals.

 

• AAPA international seat sales, Sep: -6.6%.

• Air France seat sales, Sep: -1.5% (Europe -2.5%).

• American Airlines seat sales, Sep: -10.0%.

• Amsterdam airport passengers, Sep: -2.9%.

• British Airways seat sales, Sep: -5.6% (Europe -5.9%).

Premium seat sales, Sep: -8.6%.

• Cathay Pacific seat sales, Sep: -0.7%.

• Delta Airlines seat sales, Sep: -4.6%.

• Industry IATA air traffic (RPKs), Sep: -2.9%.

• Japan Airlines international seat sales, Sep: -6.7%.

• Europe IATA air traffic (RPKs), Sep: -0.5%.

• AsPac IATA air traffic (RPKs), Sep: -6.8%.

• London airports international passengers, Sep. Gatwick

-6.5%; Heathrow -3.7%; Stansted -5.1%.

• Lufthansa seat sales, Sep: -0.4% (Europe -0.4%).

• Singapore Airlines seat sales, Sep: -1.6%.

• Singapore visitor arrivals, Sep: -4.1%.

• Southwest Airlines seat sales, Sep: -8.1%.

• World travel stocks index, Sep: 57. Oct est: 47.

• Europe travel stocks index, Sep: 50. Oct est: 42.

• AsPac travel stocks index, Sep: 73. Oct est: 57.

• United Airlines seat sales, Sep: -7.9%.

 

 

 

The Fox

Crisis Market Monitor.

Leave a comment

FOXTROTS

 

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning. 

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

2009 January 21

Crisis Market Monitor.

Excerpt from Travel Business Analyst, Asia Pacific edition.

Data shown here may also be shown differently in the Travel Business Analyst newsletters. Not all sources shown, for reasons of brevity; not shown are usually relevant principals.

 

• Industry air traffic (RPKs), Sep: -2.9%.

• Air France seat sales, Sep: -1.5%.

• Amsterdam airport passengers, Sep: -2.9%.

• AsPac air traffic (RPKs), Sep: -6.8%.

• AsPac travel stocks index, Sep: 73. Oct est: 57.

• AAPA international seat sales, Sep: -6.6%.

• British Airways seat sales, Sep: -5.6%.

• Cathay Pacific seat sales, Sep: -0.7%.

• Europe IATA air traffic (RPKs), Sep: -0.5%.

• Europe travel stocks index, Sep: 50. Oct est: 42.

• Hong Kong visitor arrivals, Sep: +3.5%.

• India visitor arrivals, Sep: +9.6%.

• London Heathrow international passengers, Sep. -3.7%.

• Lufthansa seat sales, Sep: -0.4%.

• Macau visitor arrivals, Sep: +2.1%.

• Maldives visitor arrivals, Sep: +4.6%.

• Singapore Airlines seat sales, Sep: -1.6%.

• Singapore visitor arrivals, Sep: -4.1%.

• World travel stocks index, Sep: 57. Oct est: 47.

 

  

The Fox

2009. Outbound travel potential from Hong Kong.

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FOXTROTS

 

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning. 

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

 

2009 January 20

2009. Outbound travel potential from Hong Kong.

Numerically, the mainland will be the largest. Easy (plenty of cities), close, convenient (usually, no visas), connectivity (relatives, friends). But not always the cheapest option.

 

And the coming year may also be unusual for a few reasons:

-prices are changing, usually downwards (air fares and hotels).

-fuel surcharges are (slowly, reluctantly almost) being lifted, so longhaul prices (Australia, Europe, North America) are not so awesome.

 

But:

-The Crisis. So some will avoid longhaul travel, second short holiday, better hotels. And stay shorter, spend less. And some will say, “What the…Australia is 20% cheaper than it was in 2008; let’s go!”

 

Thus:

Mainland; see above.

Macau. Had a bad 2008 with no growth in visitors from Hong Kong. But that may change in 2009 because we think Macau’s V-factor (Venetian) will trump Hong Kong’s D-factor (Disneyland).

Singapore. Slow 2009 because noticeable increase in hotel prices (even if they fall a little, still higher than in past two years). And because in 2010 a few big-time attractions are due to open – including Singapore’s ‘V-factors’ – the Marina Bay Sands, and Resorts World on Singapore’s Sentosa island (including a Universal Studios theme park), and more.

Canada. Because sluggish growth in past four years, so pent-up demand.

US. Still tough because still-unfriendly welcome because of entry formalities.

Thailand. November’s airports-closure chaos will stop some from going, but low prices will attract many, but probably more to somewhere other than Bangkok.

Bali. Growing strongly, and will attract some Thailand-avoiding resort-seekers. But prices may not tumble as much there (because the resort island is still trying to get back to pre-bombing prices).

Penang. Once an important resort in Asia, but which lost its shine many years ago. But may come back a little in 2009 as some travellers avoid: Pattaya and Phuket because of uncertain politics in Thailand; Sri Lanka and Goa in India because of violence fears; and Bali because of higher prices.

Shopping? More to Japan, and also to Korea (which has had fewer Hong Kong visitors over the past two years).

Longhaul? (Australia, Canada, US above). Europe? Still costly, particularly now Oasis has gone. Maybe 2010?

Outsiders. Left behind in recent years, Malaysia and Philippines may see a resurgence in 2009 thanks mainly to lower prices.

 

-Then there’s Obamania – with travel getting a boost as a result of their Obama connections in, no less, Chicago, Hawaii, Indonesia, Kenya. And, yes, in Obama, west Japan.

 

 

 

 

The Fox