FOXTROTS*
Travel-Industry-Data News, January 16-20.
From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com
Travel business updates
20 January 2023
[] Macau Jan-Dec visitors totalled 7.71mn -26.0%, of which mainland China was 7.05mn -27.5%.
[] STR* reports on US hotels.
2022:
-62.7% occupancy (-4.9%), average room rate (ARR) US$148.83 (+13.6%)
-Among top-25 markets, Oahu, Hawaii, highest occupancy 75.4%, which was -10.5% compared with pre-covid 2019.
-Among top-25 markets, Miami largest ARR growth, +30.0%, to US$253.11.
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-14 January (against comparable week in 2019, not 2020 or 2021) occupancy 54.8% (-5.5%), average room rate US$144.81 (+15.7%)
-7 January 47.2% (-11.5%) US$142.82 (+11.2%)
-24 December 43.9% (-9.7%) US$132.29 (+2.3%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-November occupancy 50.4% (-0.5%), average room rate US$135.49 (+20.4%)
-October 65.8% (+5.2%) US$152.94 (+21.4%)
-September 70.0% (-1.5%) US$157.99 (+15.7%)
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
[] Our precis of PCW* forecasts on Southeast Asia (Note 1) by 2025:
-Gross bookings to reach 94% of pre-covid (record) 2019.
-Online bookings to double 2022-25. Note 2.
-Mobile gross bookings to double 2019. Note 2.
-Mobile gross bookings*, US$bn. 2025 11,2024 10,2023 8,2022 5,2021 2,2020 3,2019 6.
*Notes:
Our Notes on this topic are too numerous to be conveniently included here. Full details, including those marked here with a ‘Note’ reference, are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.
Travel business updates
19 January 2023
[] Our precis of TDN* report on WTTC* and OE* study, sponsored by Visa, on ‘most powerful city destination’. Note 1. Measure based on contribution of the travel business to GDP, employment, ‘traveller spend’. These measures do not confer ‘power’, but could indicate importance of the travel business; ‘strongest’ or ‘biggest’ travel destination would be a better description. 2, OE/TDN/WTTC use measure of ‘traveller spend’; this indicates an outbound measure, but it appears OE/TDN/WTTC mean ‘visitor spend’. This, in turn, is misleading, as outbound is an element in OE/WTTC travel measures, including employment; OE/WTTC do not appear to have taken this into account.
Findings include:
-Paris top in 2022. OE/WTTC report travel’s direct GDP contribution was US$36bn in 2022.Forecasts in 2032 Paris will be #3, but worth US$49bn. Note 2.
-Beijing #2 in 2022, counting US$33bn. Forecast to be #1 in 2032, US$77bn.
-Orlando #3 US$31bn. #4, US$45bn. Note 3.
-Shanghai US$30bn. #2, US$71bn. Note 4.
-Las Vegas #5 US$23bn. #5 US$36bn. Note 3.
-Non-comparable data given for some other selected (by OE/TDN/WTTC) cities. Las Vegas 16.3% share of city’s economy. Macau 40.4% share of city’s economy. Orlando 20.4% share of city’s economy. Paris 3.5% share of city’s economy. Sanya +10.2% travel-GDP compared with pre-covid 2019. Warsaw +14.4% travel-GDP; 43.6% share of city’s economy. Note 3.
–Top cities in international traveller spend in 2022: Dubai US$29.4bn; Doha US$16.8bn; London US$16.1bn; Macau US$15.6bn; Amsterdam US$13.6bn; Istanbul US$13.1bn; Barcelona US$12.7bn; New York US$12.5bn; Singapore US$11.0bn; Paris US$9.76bn. Note 3.
–Top cities in international traveller spend in 2032: Hong Kong US$52.1bn, up 38 places from 2022; Macau US$43.1bn, +2; Dubai US$43.0bn, -2; Singapore US$37.4bn, +5; Bangkok US$33.5bn, +7; Doha US$31.6bn, -4; Tokyo US$25.4bn, +30; New York US$21.7bn, no change #8; Amsterdam US$21.5bn, -4; Shanghai US$21.3bn, +11.
*Notes:
Our Notes on this topic are too numerous to be conveniently included here. Full details, including those marked here with a ‘Note’ reference, are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.
[] STR* reports on hotel-room pipelines in December.
We have added some calculations from our database, which covers Asia Pacific, Europe, US only, and does not include all measures given here by STR.
Americas
-In construction: 207,112 rooms -2.1%, compared with 2021
-Final planning: 244,982 +11.3%
-Planning: 284,829 -13.6%
-Total under contract: 736,823 -3.2%
-Most in construction, US 159,344, then Mexico 11,398, Canada 6752. Change not given.
Asia Pacific
-476,942 +0.6%. Calculations from our database show +5.9% against 2019.
-108,955 -36.0%
-305,339 +2.6%
-891,236 -5.4%. Calculations from our database show +22.3% against 2018 not 2019.
-China 300,163, Vietnam 31,570. Top-2 only.
Europe
-189,698 -14.5%. Calculations from our database show -7.6% against 2019.
-140,663 -14.1%
-153,587 -3.6%
-483,948 -11.2%. Calculations from our database show +25.5% against 2018 not 2019.
-Germany 36,162, UK 28,426. Top-2 only.
Middle East & Africa
-122,686 rooms -5.8%
-41,086 rooms +6.0%
-74,863 rooms +11.5%
-238,635 +1.1%
-Saudi Arabia 40,742, UAE 27,456. Top-2 only.
*Notes: STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
Travel business updates
18 January 2023
[] Our precis of ARC* report on results of US travel agencies in December: air tickets sold US$5.5bn +76%; average US roundtrip ticket US$531 -4.8%; passenger trips 16mn +23% (domestic +8%, international +57%); ancillary sales US$15.7mn +117%; ancillary transactions 242k +71%.
-For the month (compared with November), a (ARC) reduced set of measures: air tickets sold -16%; passenger trips -15% (domestic -18%, international -10%).
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-Any rounding by ARC.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] Our precis of WTO* report and forecasts on visitor arrivals:
-2023 visitor arrivals to be 80-95% of pre-covid level. Note 1. We presume ‘pre-covid’ is related to data in 2019.
-In 2022, 900mn +100% visitors, 63% of pre-covid level. Note 1.
-Americas visitors 65% of pre-covid level. Note 2. 1, Growth or total not given. 2, We presume ‘pre-covid’ is related to data in 2019.
-Asia Pacific 23% of pre-covid level. Note 2.
-Europe 585mn, 80% of pre-covid level. Note 2.
*Notes: WTO – World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO – is a Spain-based UN-designated lobbying body for the travel business.
[] STR* reports on US hotel-room pipeline in December:
We have added some calculations from our database; this does not include all measures given here by STR.
Total
In construction: 159,344 rooms +0.3%, compared with 2021. Calculations from our database show -22.4% against 2019.
Final planning: 213,066 rooms +15.0%
Planning: 240,092 rooms -15.6%
Top-5 cities, in construction
-New York City 8.5% of existing supply, 10,944 rooms; change not given
-Phoenix 7.1%, 4,968
-Dallas 5.0%, 4,877
-Nashville 4.8%, 2,746
-Detroit 4.7%, 2,192
Categories
-Luxury 5.3% of existing supply, 7,241 rooms; change not given
-Upscale 4.6%, 41,111
-Upper midscale 3.7%, 43,946
-Upper upscale 3.0%, 20,140
-Midscale 2.5%, 10,766
-Economy 0.9%, 6,482
*Notes: STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
Travel business updates
17 January 2023
[] Radisson Hotels reports:
-Blu opened five hotels in 2022.
-Collection opened six.
-Individuals (sic) opened 20.
-Red opened four.
-Resorts 13.
-Asia Pacific +40% ‘signed’. Note 1. 1, Total not given. 2, Not same measure as other categories.
–China 80 ‘signed and opened’. Note 1.
-Alliance with Ruptub Solutions (sic) in India forecast to add 150 hotels under Radisson’s Park Inn brand. Note 2. Forecast not dated, reducing value of information.
[] Our precis of US inbound and outbound travel* in all-2022 and December from its NTTO*:
2022
-International air traveller boardings were 196.7mn +97%, 77% of 2019.
-Non-US nationals air arrivals in the US 42.8mn +108%, 66% of 2019.
-Overseas arrivals (excluding from Canada, Mexico) 24.0mn +161%,59% of 2019.
-US nationals air departures were 54.6mn +88%, 90% of 2019.
-Air passengers to/from, top-5: Mexico 36.2mn, Canada 22.0mn, UK 15.5mn, Dominican R 9.14mn, Germany 8.85mn. Note 1. 1, We reproduce this, but do not believe combined data has much marketing value. 2, Changes not given.
-Air passengers to/from, Europe 57.5mn +248%, -24.2% compared with 2019.Asia 12.4mn +206%, -68%. Note 2. 1, We reproduce this, but do not believe combined data has much marketing value. 2, Asia excludes Pacific.
-Top-5 US international airports: New York JFK 27.5mn, Miami 21.1mn, Los Angeles 16.7mn, New York EWR 12.6mn, Chicago ORD 11.5mn. Note 3. Changes not given.
-Top-5 airports for the US: London LHR 13.5mn, Cancun 12.3mn, Toronto 9.3mn, Mexico 7.49mn, Paris CDG 6.76mn. Note 3.
December
-International air traveller boardings were 18.7mn +44%, 89% of 2019.
-Non-US nationals air arrivals in the US 4.37mn +48%, 78% of 2019.
-Overseas arrivals (excluding from Canada, Mexico) 71.2% of 2019.
-US nationals air departures were 5.45mn +43%, +3.6% compared with 2019.
-Air passengers to/from, top-5: Mexico 3.20mn, Canada 2.21mn, UK 1.43mn, Dominican R 795k, Germany 789k. Note 2.
*Notes:
-NTTO = National Travel and Tourism Office. The US DMO.
-When rounded, by NTTO.
Travel business updates
16 January 2023
[] Our excerpt of AAPA* report on seat sales of its member airlines:
-In October 12.1mn +717%. January-October 74.1mn +470%.
-Top-3 airlines, October only: Singapore 1.54mn +830%, Thai 559k +5158%, Korean 530k +480%.
-Other usually-big airlines, October only: Cathay P 401k +425%, Japan 363k +487%, All Nippon 324k +485%.
*Notes: AAPA = Kuala Lumpur-based Association of Asia Pacific Airlines. Only 13 member airlines because from its beginning (as Orient Airlines Association) it limited membership, most notably excluding any airline from China and India.
[] Thailand’s DMO reports/targets:
Note. Changes not given for most measures.
-In 2022, 11.8mn visitors; 189mn domestic trips.
-Forecasts for this year:
-25mn visitors, which we calculate would be +112%; 250mn domestic trips, which we calculate would be +32.3%.
-Visitor spend US$39.1bn (at US$1 to Bht38.4), domestic spend US$17-23bn
-Total, which the DMO puts at US$62.0bn, would be 80% of pre-covid 2019.
[] At Trip.com’s cTrip in China:
-Searches for outbound flights from China December 26-January 5 grew +83% compared with the 2-weeks before that. Flight bookings grew +59%. Note 1. No additional data given to put these figures into perspective.
-Outbound bookings for travel over the January 21-27 Lunar New Year (LNY) holidays grew +540%; average price grew +32%. Note 1.
-At January 12, bookings to Southeast Asia grew +1026%*. Note 2.
–Top-5 destinations in Southeast Asia over LNY are Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Indonesia. Note 3.
-Travellers to Malaysia in LNY +584%, Singapore +499%. Note 4.
-Trip.com, with Thailand’s DMO, sold 20,000 roomnights worth US$5.52mn (Y40mn), during a promotional amounting broadcast. Note 5.
*Notes:
Our Notes on this topic are too numerous to be conveniently included here. Full details, including those marked here with a ‘Note’ reference, are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.
The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.
*Fox – sly. Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning. Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.
Foxtrots 