Double WYSKs: We challenge Easyjet and WTTC farewell comments

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Double WYSKs: We challenge Easyjet and WTTC farewell comments

WYSK = What You Should Know

Excerpts from our monthly People-in-Travel report. As this is a subscription report, the following items are not from the current edition.


Recently, the heads of airline Easyjet and the lobbyist WTTC, have moved on. The following are our contemporary comments.



Carolyn McCall*, 56, CEO of UK-based Easyjet is due near the end of this year to become CEO UK-based TV company, ITV, in early 2018. She joined Easy in 2010.


According to our database, Easy’s seat sales have shown a +7.0% average annual growth rate since she joined. That looks weak alongside some key competitors – +8.2% AAGR at arch-rival Ryanair, the world’s biggest NFA (no-frills-airline), +14.5% at (relative) newcomer Norwegian, although only +5.9% at US-based Southwest, overtaken two months ago as the world’s biggest NFA. And Air Berlin, which has now shut down, is negative, -1.6%.


The same for Easy’s share price. At current prices, Easy’s share AAGR over end-2010 was +18.3%, Ryan +24.6%, Southwest +24.4%. Only two years for Norwegian, -25.2%, and Air Berlin was not a quoted airline.


Easy’s chairman John Barton added a few accolades but without accompanying data. According to him, McCall:


-“…transformed Easyjet’s performance in every respect…” Wrong, although ‘transform’ and ‘every’ are meaningless hagiographic words in this sense.

-“…built a solid operational performance…” Wrong. Even this year, the airline had some scheduling problems, and is not a leader in, for instance, on-time performance, or baggage handling. So these are non-specific banalities.

-“…has seen…the number and loyalty of Easy’s passengers grow…” Right, of course. Seat sales have grown since 2010 (we calculate +49.7% since 2010, although Ryan has grown +60.6%, Norwegian +124.9%, but Southwest +40.9%). Loyalty has also grown, although this is almost a given as traffic grows – and Barton gives no data.


When McCall took over, we worried that she was too UK-centric for the largely-European Easy.


There are no specific figures to prove or disprove this, although in her farewell comments – as in her arrival comments – she uses ‘Europe’ to mean the continent outside the UK. Although that is not an uncommon sentiment among many UK nationals, it should not be for the head of a deeply European airline. We reckon around 65% of Easy’s business is from non-UK residents and from routes that do not touch the UK – Rome-Berlin, for instance.


Also, considering that Europe-outside-the-UK may become a reality as the UK prepares for Brexit – leaving the European Union – McCall appears to have done nothing to prepare the airline for that eventuality.


True there are so many unknowns about Brexit that it is difficult to make specific plans. But her silence on most relevant matters – for example Easy’s base in non-EU Switzerland, which in theory will have to shut – indicates McCall’s weakness. Contrast that with Ryanair’s CEO, who has spoken out strongly on the need for Brexit clarity – if only in economic plans.


Perhaps she is leaving partly because does not want to get involved in that messy politics/business of Brexit. She joined Easy from UK-only media companies GMG and the Guardian, and is joining ITV, a UK-only media group. Although born and partly educated outside the UK, she seems to see the world exclusively through British eyes.


That is not good for Easy as the March 2019 EU departure date gets closer. And so we would look for a CEO replacement with strong international experience, preferably European.


But perhaps Easy still thinks it is a British airline. Despite all the figures that show it is a European airline, and despite the fact that it has grown strong because of the liberal aviation policies introduced by the EU.

*Her last-known remuneration (2014): US$864,000 (at US$1 to £0.77) salary, US$1.49mn bonus, US$7.67mn in shares.




WTTC , (World Travel & Tourism Council)

David Scowsill, before his sudden departure as head of WTTC in June, made a sort-of valedictory – presented as an outlook for the future.


Although he personally did not move WTTC towards the future – just managed the present business – the WTTC and some of its partners are well informed on the travel business, and thus should have provide some good insight and foresight for Scowsill.


Given the elevated status of WTTC in the market, we expected better. Some (edited) comments (may have been paraphrased for editorial expediency):


[] Some developments since I joined WTTC in 2010 – Arab Spring; rising populism; rising-number/changing-nature of terrorist attacks; growing economic power of China and India; rise of the sharing economy; move to mobile; wide awareness-of and almost complete acceptance-of the urgency with which we need to address climate change. [Presumed reference to US President Trump’s climate scepticism.]


[] Despite uncertainty, vulnerability, unpredictability, travel growth has remained at around 4% a year. New business models such as [no-frills-airlines], Trip Advisor, online hotel aggregators, sharing economy, have changed travel.


[] No large brand name has gone bankrupt, even with competition and the global financial crisis. [Presumed 2008.] This ability to adapt to market forces, respond to consumer demand and adopt new technologies is what I believe ensures the future of the [travel business].


[Scowsill mostly uses the (meaningless) term ‘travel and tourism’, sometimes ‘tourism’ and occasionally ‘travel’. We do not know if these are different to him, but we have changed all to our preferred terminology, the ‘travel business’ abbreviated from hereon to TB.]


[] AI, machine-learning, robotics, will certainly affect TB jobs over time. Many jobs will become redundant, but others will be created. Service delivery in the TB relies on people contact. People ultimately define the travel experience.


[We would want something bolder in a valedictory presentation, not motivational notes suitable for someone applying for Scowsill’s job. When? What is ‘many’ – 10%, 90%? We can see 65% of jobs being replaced with technology. Although there can be no argument about people ‘ultimately defining’ the travel experience, what happens before the ‘ultimate’ – ie, the final? Is that 10% or 50% of the travel experience?]


VR and AR movement will be phenomenal, but it will enhance the TB not compete with it. The opportunities  are huge – training [travel] workers to spot potential terrorists, engineers to learn how to diagnose problems, a terminally-ill person to visit the world from their bed .


The debate on online communications wiping out business travel is 20-years-old. We see Skype, WhatsApp, WeChat, Twitter, Facebook, video conferencing communications, merging over time on communication devices, for business meetings and leisure experiences. But people will still travel to see the world, business travel will grow because the human contact required for deal making will never disappear.


Much of this is debatable. And ‘human contact required for deal making will never disappear’ is wrong. Already many deals are done without human contact – buying an airline ticket, for instance. Scowsill would doubtless argue this is not a ‘deal’, but we believe it is, and presume he means ‘big’ deals. If that is the case, he should provide a level.


[] Travel websites will be replaced by apps on mobile devices.


[] The [TB] needs to firmly establish its credentials as a force for good. The economic and social impact of the sector is significant everywhere. But a lot of work is needed to ensure that travel growth is inclusive and environmentally sustainable. The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals provide a framework for making and monitoring change. All participants should engage with the SDGs and show how their activities are aligned with them.


[This glosses over a lot. What is ‘significant’, ‘inclusive’, etc? How to measure ‘firmly establish’ – which has actually been one of Scowsill’s tasks – or that travel is ‘inclusive’ and the probably-impossible ‘environmentally sustainable’? The UN’s SDGs are a (huge) wish-list that are unlikely to be achieved, even if everyone were ready to pay for implementation. The SDGs are used by organisations such as WTTC to switch the responsibility to those rather than the culprits – in this case, travellers and the TB.]

[] Although government recognition of the TB has come a long way since WTTC was formed in the early 1990s, the TB is often too low down the list of priorities. Policymakers must understand that travel contributes to sustainable development, and is committed to growing this contribution.


[How to measure? What was government recognition then and what is it now? How can visitors scrambling over Angkor Wat and the Galapagos ‘contribute to sustainable development’? How can an inanimate ‘travel’ be committed?]


In these disruptive times, knee-jerk responses to threats – whether from terrorism , climate change or immigration – can impact travel disproportionately. This affects the bottom line of businesses, and has a direct and often devastating effect on the 292mn people  whose livelihoods depend on travel.


[Another anti-Trump comment. Earlier in this presentation, however, Scowsill says travel counts have been unaffected by disruptions. So which is it?]


[] The TB – from the CEOs I have represented to ministers I have worked with, to the 1.2bn people who travel each year – must together ensure that travel continues to improve lives, protects the planet and is a force for peace, security and understanding.


[We find it ironic that Scowsill’s last words as head of WTTC misinterpret the most basic data. There are not 1.2bn people who travel each year. That is the visitor-arrivals total, produced by at most 1bn travellers, but perhaps as few as 800mn. Even if this may not seem a great difference – although 1.2bn would be 20% – such a mistake from the head of such a body is surely a serious error? Is this what he told those ministers he presented to?]



The Fox

Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.


*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Trump slumpish

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Trump slumpish

A fall in visitor arrivals in the US in the first-half would seem to confirm that this is indeed a Trump Slump – in other words, a fall caused primarily by the anti-foreigner actions and statements of the US president, Donald Trump.


That said, the fall was less in Q2 than in Q1, thus less for the first half.


The overall figures may not look so bad. There were 1.4mn fewer visitors in H1 out of a total of 33.9mn (and 1.0mn fewer from overseas out of 16.4mn). That is only 4% of the total (and 6% of the overseas total).


But even if not bad, it is certainly not good either. But perhaps worse is the inability of the US authorities to do anything about correcting the downturn. Because, alongside the anti-foreigner discourse, has been the reluctance to admit that anything might be wrong.


Observers are left with the opinion that – if the fall was discussed – more effort would go into either denying that the figures were correct, however absurd that seems, or explaining them with platitudes.


But nothing to turn the trend.


The following are our observations on the data:


-Of the top-2 contiguous sources, Canada has been growing, +5%, and now has a 28% share. Mexico continues to fall and faster, -9%, to a 24% share.


-Overseas visitors fell -8% in Q1, -4% Q2, -6% H1 – which is a sizeable fall.


-In the top-10 sources, only Korea and France grew in Q1, but in Q2 they were joined by a few – in order of size, UK, Japan, Germany, Australia, Italy. But for H1 there were only those two plus Germany and Italy.


-A few fell faster in Q2, of which China was the most significant – -6% compared with -0.5% in Q1. The others were Brazil (-15% -13%) and India (-18% -3%).


-Perhaps a big shock is that the top-5 overseas markets hardly fell (-0.1%). They fell -4% in Q1 but grew +4% in Q2. The main cause was Germany, switching from -12% in Q1 to +10% in Q2, for +0.3% in H1.


-The other big growth, in both Qs was from Korea. In fact, the US almost exactly maintained a fair market share of the Korea outbound market. In Q1 arrivals in the US were +16% compared with the +17% for all outbound travel from Korea. And in H1 +18% +19%.


-In conclusion, all nine regions into which the US breaks its arrivals fell in H1. Disregarding their size for a moment, little surprise was that the Middle East (the main target of Trump’s ‘travel ban’) fell the most – -30% in H1, and Africa, the 2nd-target next, with -27%. Lowest fall was Asia Pacific with -1%. But even the Caribbean, almost the closest but possibly less affected in the anti-foreigner positioning of Trump, also fell heavily, by -15%.


The Fox

Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.


* Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.