Did you spot this? Some recent trends.

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Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.


Did you spot this? Some recent trends.

China to Japan

Is the long China/Japan face-off ending? Arrivals in Japan from China in the first two months grew 99%. That helped Japan to report an extraordinary 43% growth in total arrivals over Jan-Feb. That’s the good news. The bad is that outbound travel continues to crumble – down 6% over Jan-Feb.


Korea’s outbound overtakes Japan’s

It happened much faster and much bigger than I expected. Korea is now a bigger outbound travel market than Japan. Jan-Feb: 2.5mn from Japan; 3.3mn from Korea.


China’s airlines – big and fast

Phew! Air China’s international business grew 21% in the first two months. It was China’s No3 airline. At this rate will it overtake China Eastern this year? Ah, no. CE grew at 23%! What about the leader (and Asia’s biggest), China Southern? Only +20%…


Robots don’t answer questions

The best report I have seen on the robot-staffed hotel in Japan is in the current edition of Net Value. And it’s short (the article, not the robot). I am biased, being the editor. I just hope that Kokoro will not make their robots too life-like. Because, according to my experience with Kokoro, the robots will not respond to questions…


Air Asia Q4

Air Asia’s India operation seems to be starting well. Seat factor at 84%, the highest of AA’s six airlines, and seat sales were 70% above its first operating Q, Q3. However, Q4 was bad for the group – growing only 2% – following falls in seat sales for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines.


US inbound, outbound

-In. Growth 7%, and +8% for the overseas markets (non Canada, Mexico). Best was Mexico, representing around 23% of the total – and growing at 20%! That overall growth hides the fact that two or the top-4 markets were falling – Canada, Japan. The other, the UK, was +3%. US out. Total +10%. The big item was travel to Mexico.

-Out. There seems to be a mutual pact with Mexico, with outbound +22% matching the +20% inbound-from-Mexico. That growth makes Mexico 37% of the total. Europe and Asia Pacific were each +4%, but the Caribbean (smaller than Europe but bigger than AsPac) was +10%.



-In. Earlier official counts do not add up to the 2014 total now given. My counts show foreign (passport holders) visitors were flat (+0.5%). Of the biggest sources: Koreans +5%, Japanese -6%, US nationals +0.4%. But note the distortion – an American national living in Hong Kong, for example, is counted as being from the US.

-Out. A storming end to the year, after some weak earlier months. I estimate the total grew 14%.



Some noteworthy 2014 results*: -Visitor arrivals. Full-year – Japan +29%! Korea +18%! Taiwan +23%! YTD Asia Pacific regional +5%. -International seat sales. Full-year – Air China +18%! China Southern +21%! -Outbound travel, YTD, our estimates. China +14%, India +1%, Asia Pacific regional +9%. *A report in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here




The Fox

Remember, I’ll be famous after I’m dead.

Trottings; East Berlin still there.

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TROTTINGS = Trip Jottings

The Fox Trots: Travel Stories from The Fox’s Friends.


Trottings; East Berlin still there.

If you would like a reminder of what East Berlin was like, take the S-Bahn from the city to Schoenefeld airport – but note that this is not the fastest way to get to the airport. Much of the last 25 minutes of the trip is a 25-year flashback through East Berlin.


Even the stations still show signs of the past. Don’t look at the seats, trashcans, signage, etc; that is all post-reunification. Look at the flooring, and the building structures. They are crumbling, and dirty even if they are cleaned.


Some now abandoned signal structures seem to date from World War Two.


Outside the stations, some of the housing blocks of flats now look much better, as do some of the small single houses. It is amazing what a coat of pop-paint does.


But next to the train tracks, there are still many single storey houses about the size of a biggish room, each with a small garden. Again, many have been prettified, but are sad reminders nevertheless.


Even the Schoenefeld airport terminal building still has many leftovers from those communist days – but it needs an experienced eye to see behind the post-reunification renewals.



The Fox’s Friends; MB


Hotel-room Pipeline, ITB Berlin, Travel Stocks

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Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.


Hotel-room Pipeline, ITB Berlin, Travel Stocks


Hotel-room pipeline

I calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for February, the number of rooms in the pipeline has increased: World +14%, US +18%, AsPac +20%, Eur +2%.



ITB Berlin 2015

Some results for last week’s ITB Berlin were better than I outlined earlier. Details:


-175,000 total visitors, +0.6%.


-115,000 trade visitors, +0.9%, of which 43% were from abroad, +3pts. Their length of stay was 2.4 days. +14.3%.


-10,096 exhibitors, -0.5%, from 186 countries, -1.6%.


-23,000 visitors, +4.5%, attended ITBB’s convention, but as entrance is free, the count is not a clear indicator of its value.


-Volume of business conducted (a figure not possible to verify) was US$7.4bn (at US$1 to €0.90), +3.1%. I calculate that as: US$42,500 per visitor, +2%; US$64,750 per trade visitor, +2%; US$737,000 per exhibitor, +4%.



Travel Stocks

Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in February. Airlines: biggest growth, SAS +11%; biggest fall, Jet -14%. Hotels: Starwood +12%, Jinjiang -10%. Others: Orbitz +17%, CTS -4%.


Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Jet +23%; biggest fall, American -8%. Hotels: Accor +19%, Banyan -11%. Others: Airbus +14%, Hertz -18%.


TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 179, US 315, AsPac 98, Eur 125.  Index previous month: WW 172, US 290, AsPac 101, Eur 124.


Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Dublin +9%; biggest fall, Istanbul -5%.


Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in April’s newsletters. 2014 review – including comparison with end-year prices over the past 12 months, and with 5- and 10-years ago – in February newsletters.


*A report on these topics in our Travel Business Analyst newsletters contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.




The Fox

Remember, I’ll be famous after I’m dead.