TBA Tracking: August travel stocks; another bad month

FOXTROTS*

 

TBA Tracking: August travel stocks; another bad month

Travel stock prices (Asia Pacific, Europe, US) in August.

Airlines: biggest growth, Air-France/KLM +9%; biggest fall, China Eastern -15%.

Hotels: Choice +6%, Peninsula -19%.

Tech: LastMinute +8%, cTrip -17%.

China travel stocks (new): CITS +6%, Air China -12%.

Others: Boeing +7%, Avis -32%.

 

Previous month:

Airlines: biggest growth, Norwegian +12%; biggest fall, Air Asia -28%.

Hotels: InterContinental +11%, Jinjiang -12%.

Tech: Trivago +22%, Expedia -0.2%.

China travel stocks: CITS +2%, China United -8%.

Others: TUI (UK quote ) +6%, Thomas Cook -58% (sic).

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 217, Asia Pacific 76, Europe 190, US 385. Index previous month: World 225, Asia Pacific 81, Europe 198, US 395.

 

TBA China Travel Stocks Index (new; quotes from China, Hong Kong, US): 92; previous month 104.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 147; previous month 150.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth Oslo +0.3%; biggest fall Singapore -6%. Previous month: biggest growth Istanbul +6%; biggest fall Korea -5%.

 

Comments:

 

-Stockmarket results say it all – 24 of the 25 markets we track fell. And #25, Oslo, was up +0.3%.

 

-When the travel business is bad, it is often airlines that suffer most. This past month it was hotels – of the 20 we track, only two reported growth, and a 3rd was flat.

 

-That said, airlines did badly also – out of our 31, just six grew.

 

-Of the two ‘death-row’ stocks, Thomas Cook fell -8% (and is now -83% its end-2018 price). But India’s grounded Jet Airways actually grew over the month, +19%, but is -86% its end-2018 price.

 

-Jet was actually the best performing airline stock, but as it is grounded, perhaps it is no longer an ‘airline’?

 

-Asia’s main hotel groups had a disastrous month – although Peninsula was the worst (of all hotel groups), Jinjiang was -16%, Mandarin Oriental -13%, Shangri La -14%.

 

-China’s travel stocks were also hit. Our Index shows the extent, but in the three world regions we cover, China Eastern was the worst-performing airline, Jinjiang the second-worst hotel group, -16%, cTrip the worst travel-tech stock (although quoted in New York).

 

-Not sure why the two car-rental companes were hit so hard – Avis worst, but Hertz was -22%.

 

-Boeing, despite its continuing B737 problems, grew +7% in the month, taking it to +13% on its end-2018 price.

 

-Also beating the bad news was Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific – firing staff for their political views, disliked by many China commentators for not being loyal enough to China, and disliked by many in Hong Kong for kow-towing too much to China. Its stock fell -8%, taking it below its end-2018 price. But the Hong Kong stockmarket fell -7%. And China’s three Hong Kong-quoted airline stocks all fell more than Cathay. And so, by way of example, did Singapore Airlines, -9%.

 

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

%d bloggers like this: