FOXTROTS*

Travel-Industry-Data News, April 15-19.

Hotel business updates

19 April 2024

[] Our summary of STR* report on US hotels:

Weekly 7-day periods through:

-13 April occupancy (against comparable week in 2023) 65.8% (+2.8%), average room rate US$160.20 (+2.9%)

-6 April 64.1% (+4.7%) US$156.96 (+2.1%)

-30 March 62.3% (-5.6%) US$157.14 (-0.7%)

End-month 7-day periods:

-February 62.0% (-3.3%) US$156.62 (+0.3%)

-January 56.2% (-0.3%) US$149.76 (+5.1%)

-December 50.1% (-7.1%) US$163.58 (-2.8%)

*Notes:

-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

[] Our summary of a Costar* reports on US hotel pipeline in March:

  We have added some calculations from our database, which does not include all measures given here by Costar.

-In construction: 156,525 +1.5% rooms. Our database indicates that is -23.2% compared with pre-covid 2019.

-Final planning: 263,316 +9.8%.

-Planning: 324,522 +39.5%.

  By category:
-Luxury 6466 rooms, 4.3% share of existing rooms. End-December was 6631 4.7%.
-Upper Upscale 19,766 2.8%. 19,112 2.7%.
-Upscale 35,912 4.0%. 34,457 3.9%.
-Upper Midscale 42,605 3.6%. 42,467 3.5%.
-Midscale 14,733 2.9%. 12,455 2.5%.
-Economy 7946 1.2%. 7837 1.2%.
*Notes: One of the Costar outlets – Costar, HNN, STR.

Travel business updates

18 April 2024

[] Our summary of BTN* report on Marriott:

-Targets adding 100/12,000 hotels/rooms conversion hotels in Europe by end-2026. Note 1. Change not given.

-Current portfolio in Europe 800/150,000.

*Notes: BTN is UK-based publication Business Travel News.

[] Our summary of a Costar* group report on Paris hotel bookings for the Summer Olympics this year:

-Bookings at 60% for 26 July-11 August; in bookings were 50%. Note 1. Not clarified, but assumed that this data and following means that current bookings would result in an occupancy level as shown.

-For weeks before the games, 20%. Note 2. Period not clarified.
-Highest booking 63.8%, on Saturday 27 July.

-2nd highest booking 63.1%, on Saturday 3 August.

-At the same time in 2023, booking levels for the two days were 19.3% and 19.8%.

-Lowest occupancy during the games 45.2%, on the night of the closing ceremony. 

-Room rates in July and August forecast to be +8.7% for luxury hotels, + 72.7% (sic) for upper upscale hotels. Note 3. 1, Not clarified whether rack- or average-room rates. 2, Other categories not given.

-In Ile-de-France, the main part of Paris, highest occupancy 60.3% on 3 August, lowest 46.1% on 11 August.

–We note that higher booking levels before the event do not automatically result in higher occupancy levels during the event. See BEB* below.

*Notes:

-One of the Costar outlets – Costar, HNN, STR.

-Any rounding, by Costar.

-BEB, Big Event Blues, is our semi-serious theory suggesting that momentous international events actually reduce visitor arrival totals. Although these events attract international visitors, many traditional travellers (such as business travellers and even holidaymakers) will stay away from that destination just before, during, and just after the event. They assume that there will be too much disruption to normal movement in the destination. In general, they are right; and not only is movement curtailed, but many prices are higher.

Travel business updates

17 April 2024

[] The Economist on travel in North America related to the solar eclipse April 8:

–ADNA* reports that a normal Sunday in April, 30% of homes would be booked on AirBnB or Vrbo in areas in or around the eclipse’s path. On April 7, 92% were booked.

–Costar reports hotel occupancies in those places were up from 12pts (in Montreal) to 67pts (in Indianapolis).

-The New York Times reported that 50 of Super 8 motels in those places rack rates were twice the standard rate. Note 1. This report appears to ignore hotel rate practices where published rack rates are high, and discounts offered most times – except on special occasions. In other words, the report should have noted that normal discounts were unavailable.

-Of the 92,000 short-term listings in the US in those places – 5% of the 1.6mn total – 85,000 had been reserved for April 7, compared with 20,000 for the following Sunday.

-The average booking on April 7 was for US$269, compared with US$245 for April 14.

*Notes:

-ADNA is US-based Air DNA. Despite its name, concentrates on data and analysis on accommodation.

-Costar provides information, analytics, and marketing on real estate,

[] Micenet* reports that the 3-tower Marina Bay Sands hotel in Singapore plans expansion:

-New hotel tower with all-suites. Note 1. Number of units not given.

-15-000-seat arena.

-Current US$1.75bn (quoted in US$) refurbishment.

-Construction due to start July 2025 and finish July 2029.

*Notes: Micenet is an Australia-based publication on the MICE business.

Hotel pipelines

16 April 2024

Costar* reports on world hotel pipelines in March.

  We have added some calculations from our database, which covers Asia Pacific, Europe, US only, but does not include all measures given here by Costar.

Americas

-In construction: 205,998 rooms +4.1%

-Final planning: 296,374 +6.8%

-Planning: 378,628 +36.0%

-Total under contract: 881,000 +16.9%

-Most in construction, US 156,525, then Mexico 13,335, Canada 7603, Brazil 5799. Changes not given.

Asia Pacific

-502,610 +5.6%. Calculations from our database show +18.7% compared with pre-covid 2019.

-109,926 +5.6%

-289,041 -11.0%

-901,577 -0.4%

-China 315,145, Vietnam 37,113. Only top-2 given.
Europe

-172,499 -6.8%. Calculations from our database show -7.9% compared with 2019.

-99,744 -25.3%

-160,404 +3.1%

-432,647 -8.8%

-Germany 28,500, UK 28,423. Only top-2 given.
Middle East & Africa

-110,783 -7.3%

-36,173 -20.9%

-81,316 -3.3%

-228,272 -8.5%

-Saudi Arabia 42,464, UAE 19,046. Only top-2 given.
*Notes: One of the Costar outlets – Costar, HNN, STR.

Travel business updates

15 April 2024

[] Radisson Hotels, whose current portfolio is 1340 hotels, opened or signed 50 hotels in Q1. Note 1. Change not given.

[] In Lufthansa‘s Q1, its operating loss was US$923mn +211% (which we have converted at US$1 to €0.92). It forecasts an operating profit for the full year of US$2.39bn -18.0%.

[] Our summary of PCW* report on 2023 revenue of digital travel brands:

–AirBnB +18%.

–Amadeus +21%.

–Booking +25%.

–Expedia +10%.

–Sabre +15%.

–Trip.com +122%.

*Notes: PCW is Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data, or Phocuswire, a news outlet. The Northstar travel group bought it in 2011 from the late founder Philip C Wolf, after whom it had been named PhoCusWright.

The Fox. Remember, I’ll be famous after I’m dead.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.