Travel Industry Data Updates, June 10-14.

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Travel Industry Data Updates, June 10-14.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks

14 June 2019

The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in May for US hotel companies was 4645 +4.9% (over previous month). YTD, the stock index was +14.1%.

The ‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ for May, from the current editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows: World 210, Asia Pacific 89, Europe 188, US 351.

The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ for May, from the current editions of our Travel Business Analyst newsletters, was at 192.

The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ for May, from the current editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 163.

The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in, from the current edition of our monthly Net Value report, was at 130.

The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong and New York, as well as Shanghai), in May from the current editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 94.

Notes: The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at February 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

 

Travel business updates

13 June 2019

[] ACI reports March airport passenger throughput +2.0% in Asia Pacific and -0.3% in the Middle East. Q1 Asia Pacific +3.4%, Middle East +1.1%. Others in March:

-In China, +1.1%.

-In India -2.7%.

-In the Middle East, Dubai, the airport in the region, was -4.2% as.

[] A new Phocuswright report reports that gross bookings for the 13 Asia Pacific markets its covers were US$418.1bn +7% in 2018. That puts the region well above Europe and the US; no data.

Of that US$418.1bn it reports the online share is 44% – US$182.2bn. We estimate – from PCW data – growth at about +21%.

We estimate – from PCW data – that the 2022 total market will be US$480bn +3.5% AAGR (annual average growth rate), and online US$260bn +9.3% AAGR.

 

Outbound from Russia

12 June 2019

Global Data*, a data and analytics company, forecasts outbound travel from Russia will grow from 45.3mn in 2018 to 50.2mn in 2023.

It puts that at +10.4%, although our calculator calculates +10.8%, and that the AAGR (annual average growth rate) would be +2.08%, which looks slow.

However, GD says that AAGR (it calculates +2.05%) would be better than the -0.28% achieved over 2014-18.

(It reports -31% 2016 over 2014, then +43% 2018/16, +4% 2020/18, +6% over a 3-year 2023/20.)

Two other findings – that raise questions:

-62% of millennials are likely to travel abroad this year. This looks too high. Millennials are not precisely defined, but Pew counts those born between 1981 and 1996. We estimate that might be 40% of Russia’s population, thus 58mn – more than the total outbound-travel forecast for 2023.

-Those aged 55-64 have no holiday plans. Obviously some do.

*Notes:

-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data.

-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

Hotel pipeline, Europe

11 June 2019

Hotel Management and Lodging Econometrics report:

-Europe’s hotel construction pipeline is 1670 +22% hotels with 254,600 +19% rooms. Rival STR shows 1454/187,198; growth NA because new methodology.

-That comprises 844/133,620 under construction, 480/72,588 due to start construction in the next 12 months, 346/48,392 at early planning. Growths not given for this and all of following.

-Due to open this year 390/53,241, in 2020 426/61,490.

-Overall pipeline, countries – Germany 319/57,152, UK 261/37,910, France 188/22,537, Portugal 121/12,190 Poland 91/13,748.

-Overall pipeline, cities – London 78/13,285, Paris 60/9255, Dusseldorf 53/10,347, Lisbon 39/3457, Hamburg 31/6101 rooms.

-Overall pipeline, hotel groups – Accor 256/35,073, Marriott 208/33,395, Hilton 172/26,466, InterContinental 147/24,483. These four companies take a 47% share.

-Overall pipeline, hotel brands – Ibis (Accor group) 134/16,901, Moxy/Marriott 64/11,422, Holiday Inn Express/InterContinental 72/10,900, Hampton/Hilton 70 10,790, Holiday Inn/InterContinental 33/7541, Garden/Hilton 43 6416, Courtyard/Marriott 33/5758, Novotel 25/4246, DoubleTree/Hilton 23/2985, Mercure/Accor 28/2918, Residence/Marriott 17/1607, Indigo/InterContinental 13/1554.

 

Travel business updates

10 June 2019

[] ACI reports Q1 Europe airport passenger throughput +4.4%. Others:

-March. EU +4.1%, non-EU +2.9%.

-Q1. Airports/markets (EU), and order, selected by ACI. Austria +21.6%, Estonia +13.3%, Sweden -4.1%, Denmark +0.9%, Belgium +1.9%, Netherlands +1.8%. Berlin Tegel +32.4%, Vienna +24.6%, Tallinn +13.3%, Dusseldorf +12.5%, Milan Malpensa +10.6%, Palma +10.2%, Athens +9.5%, Luxembourg +9.3%.

-Q1. Airports/markets (non-EU), and order, selected by ACI. Turkey -3.7%, Iceland -8.8%. Moscow Sheremetevo +17.6%, Moscow Vnukovo +13.2%, St Petersburg +14.7%, Minsk +15.7%, Tbilisi +11.2%, Kiev +15.2% Antalya +13.2%, Sochi +12.9%.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels 2-8 June: occupancy -1.3% to 72.0%, average room rate +0.5% to US$132.40.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

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Travel Industry Data Updates, June 3-7.

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Travel Industry Data Updates, June 3-7.

From www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

WTO on visitor spend

7 June 2019

WTO (World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO) reports travel spend was US$1.7tn +4% in 2018. It defines this as ‘exports from international tourism’.

WTTC, the rival lobby group for the travel business, counts all the travel business. It reported US$8.8tn +3.9%.

Other WTO findings:

-The total grew faster than the +3% of merchandise exports.

-Accounted for 29% of global service exports and 7% of overall exports of goods and services.

-Visitor spend was US$1.45tn +4%. WTO calls this ‘consistent’ with the +6% growth in visitor arrivals, but for us this means that per-visitor-spend fell substantially.

-International passenger transport US$256bn; WTO does not give the growth rate, which usually means it fell.

-Regional visitor spend. Asia Pacific +7% growth, Europe +5%, Middle East +3%, Americas flat.

-Sub-regional visitor spend. Central/Eastern Europe +9%, Northeast Asia +9%. No others given.

-Growth size is also given for what WTO calls leading source markets, but this information less value without noting size. WTO puts France +11%, Russia +11%, Australia +10%.

-China’s spend put as largest, at US$277bn +5%, the US US$144bn +7%.

-For others, just growth given, and no reason for the order – we do not think it is size. UK +3%, Italy +4%, Germany and Korea ‘rather flat’ (we do not know what this means), Spain +12%.

 

Macau outlook

6 June 2019

Research & Markets* (RM), a company, forecasts for Macau:

-In 2025 ‘revenue’ from international visitors will be US$15bn. We believe this means the same as visitor spend, and that ‘international’ excludes visitors from neighbouring China and Hong Kong.

-There will be 2mn MICE visitors in 2025.

-Growth not given for these two measures.

-RM notes that China, Hong Kong, Taiwan ‘remained’ Macau’s top-3 visitor sources. Period not given, but we presume 2018. Our database shows these three have a 91% market share (of which China was 71%). Unlike some of the other figures here, these include China and Hong Kong, meaning that even some data within this section may not be comparable with some other.

*Notes: We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – most apparently due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

US hotel business updates

5 June 2019

STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels:

[] 27 May through 2 June occupancy +0.6% to 64.5%, average room rate +1.0% to US$124.16.

[] STR with Tourism Economics – here, ST – have lowered their forecast for this year. The data:

-2019 occupancy +0.1%, average room rate +1.9%.

-What ST call overall performance – measured as revpar (revenue per available room) – for 2019 has been lowered from the +2.3% forecast this February to +2.0%.

-2020 occupancy -0.2%, average room rate +2.2%.

 

TBA Tracking: May travel stocks’ ups and downs – another bad month

3 June 2019

Travel stock prices (Asia Pacific, Europe, US) in May.

Airlines: biggest growth, Jet (India) +8%; biggest fall, China Southern -26%.

Hotels: Millennium & Copthorne +12%, Marriott -17%.

Tech: LastMinute +23%, cTrip -18%.

China travel stocks (new): HNA (airline, not group; China quote) -8% (sic), China Southern (HK quote) -26%.

Others: Amex -2% (sic), Thomas Cook -20%.

 

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Jet Blue +14%; biggest fall, Norwegian -13%. Hotels: Dusit +21%, Jinjiang -8%. Tech: eDreams +15%, Amadeus -5%. China travel stocks (new): HNA (airline, not group; China quote) +0.5%, Jinjiang (HK quote) -8%. Others: Disney +19%, Thomas Cook -13%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 210, Asia Pacific 89, Europe 188, US 351. Index previous month: World 228, Asia Pacific 97, Europe 197, US 390.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 130; previous month 132.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, India +2%; biggest fall Hong Kong -9%. Previous month: biggest growth New York-Travel Weekly +12%; biggest fall Shanghai -0.4%.

 

Comments:

-Yet another bad month. More travel stock prices fell than grew. In two sectors (China stocks and Others) the fastest growth stocks were actually those that fell least.

-There are not many companies that are above their end-2017 price (not end-2018, because there was a big fall towards the end of 2018) – Asia Pacific 1 (out of 27 we track), Europe 6/23, US 9/23.

-As usual, some oddities. The fastest-growing airline stock was Jet Airways, despite the fact that it has actually stopped flying! However, its shares are still changing hands, presumably with investors calculating the gains and losses from liquidation.

-Travel-tech stocks once again had a mixed month. Even Booking (nee Priceline) was down badly, -9%. Fortunes may be turning for LastMinute, up +23%. But that cannot be said for Trivago, still falling, and almost half its end-2017 price.

-Star performer was InterContinental Hotels – albeit because others were so dull. Its +3% is admittedly slow, but it is +8% above its end-2017 price.

-China (which now also includes Hong Kong in terms of stock sentiments), suffered most – presumably because of the trade war that the US has started with China. The Hong Kong market fell most, but Shanghai also fell heavily, -6%.

-Stockmarkets had a particularly-bad month. Only 4 grew, of the 25 we track; all of those were AsPac markets.

 

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

TBA Tracking: May travel stocks’ ups and downs – another bad month

FOXTROTS*

 

TBA Tracking: May travel stocks’ ups and downs – another bad month

Travel stock prices (Asia Pacific, Europe, US) in May.

 

Airlines: biggest growth, Jet (India) +8%; biggest fall, China Southern -26%.

Hotels: Millennium & Copthorne +12%, Marriott -17%.

Tech: LastMinute +23%, cTrip -18%.

China travel stocks (new): HNA (airline, not group; China quote) -8% (sic), China Southern (HK quote) -26%.

Others: Amex -2% (sic), Thomas Cook -20%.

 

Previous month:

Airlines: biggest growth, Jet Blue +14%; biggest fall, Norwegian -13%.

Hotels: Dusit +21%, Jinjiang -8%.

Tech: eDreams +15%, Amadeus -5%.

China travel stocks (new): HNA (airline, not group; China quote) +0.5%, Jinjiang (HK quote) -8%.

Others: Disney +19%, Thomas Cook -13%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 210, Asia Pacific 89, Europe 188, US 351. Index previous month: World 228, Asia Pacific 97, Europe 197, US 390.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 130; previous month 132.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, India +2%; biggest fall Hong Kong -9%. Previous month: biggest growth New York-Travel Weekly +12%; biggest fall Shanghai -0.4%.

 

Comments:

-Yet another bad month. More travel stock prices fell than grew. In two sectors (China stocks and Others) the fastest growth stocks were actually those that fell least.

 

-There are not many companies that are above their end-2017 price (not end-2018, because there was a big fall towards the end of 2018) – Asia Pacific 1 (out of 27 we track), Europe 6/23, US 9/23.

 

-As usual, some oddities. The fastest-growing airline stock was Jet Airways, which has actually stopped flying. However, its shares are still changing hands, presumably with investors calculating the gains and losses from liquidation.

 

-Travel-tech stocks once again had a mixed month. Even Booking (nee Priceline) was down badly, -9%. Fortunes may be turning for LastMinute, up +23%. But that cannot be said for Trivago, still falling, and almost half its end-2017 price.

 

-Star performer was InterContinental Hotels – albeit because others were so dull. Its +3% is admittedly slow, but it is +8% above its end-2017 price.

 

-China (which now also includes Hong Kong in terms of stock sentiments), suffered most – presumably because of the trade war that the US has started with China. The Hong Kong market fell most, but Shanghai also fell heavily, -6%.

 

-Stockmarkets had a particularly-bad month. Only 4 grew, of the 25 we track; all of those were AsPac markets.

 

 

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Travel Industry Data Updates, May 27-31.

FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data Updates, May 27-31.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Hotel business updates

31 May 2019

[] Hyatt plans 21 more hotels in Asia Pacific* by end-2020, which would be +25%. Brands: 2 Alila (an independent brand that Hyatt took over in 2018), 6 Andaz, 6 Grand, 7 Park.

*Notes: Hyatt includes part of the Middle East in this definition. Although most of the eastern part of Turkey is considered geographically to be in Asia – actually Asia Minor – the countries that Hyatt includes in its ‘Asia’ are not. And parts that are in Asia – such as that ‘Asian’ eastern Turkey – are not included in Hyatt’s list!

 

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports:

–US hotels 19-25 May: occupancy +0.9% to 71.2%, average room rate +2.1% to US$133.81.

-Top-3 hotel groups in North America are Marriott 886,308 rooms, Hilton 703,238, Wyndham 546,716. Top-3 brands Hampton (part of Hilton group) 227,581 rooms, Holiday Inn Express (InterContinental) 203,792, Courtyard (Marriott) 147,462.

 

Travel business updates

30 May 2019

[] Greece’s DMO reports air arrivals April +18.7%, YTD +13.0%. Bank of Greece all arrivals March +9.1%, YTD +7.8%; spend +32.2%, +37.2%.

 

[] IATA (International Air Transport Association):

-Reports April RPKs +4.3%, ASKs +3.6%, load factor 82.8% +0.6pt. RPKs by region – Asia Pacific +2.1%, Europe +7.6%, Middle East +2.6%, North America +4.4%. International RPKs +5.1% – Asia Pacific +2.9%, Europe +8.0%, Middle East +2.9%, North America +5.5%. Domestic RPKs +2.8% – Australia -0.7%, Brazil +0.6%, China +3.4%, India -0.5%, Japan +3.4%, Russia +10.4%, US +4.1%.

-Forecasts 2019 RPKs will be +5.0% (they were +7.4% in 2018) – Asia Pacific +6.3% +9.5%, Europe +4.9% +7.5%, Middle East +2.0% +5.0%, North America +4.3% +5.3%.

 

[] The US DMO reports that visitors from China in 2018 were 2.9mn -5.7% – the first fall since 2003.
The DMO still forecasts growth this year, +2% to 3.3mn, then to 4.1mn in 2023. We calculate that would mean +7.17% annual average growth rate, possible for the China market in normal times – except that these are not normal times.

 

China domestic/outbound

29 May 2019

Research & Markets* (RM), a company, reports on China’s domestic and outbound market. Some findings:

-74% choose city breaks, 70% sun-beach-holidays as holiday destinations. No clarification if this is domestic, international, or total; RM rounded.

-57.5% of domestic travel is for leisure, 69.2% of international in 2018.

-Transport costs, US$249bn in 2018, were the largest domestic travel spend. No share given.

-International spend forecast to be US375bn in 2022 +11.3% AAGR (annual average growth rate, presumably from 2018).

-Retail spend, largest share, forecast to be US$115bn in 2022; AAGR not given.

*Notes: We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – most apparently due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

 

PATA’s misunderstandings

28 May 2019

PATA (Pacific Asia Travel Association), detailing data in its recently-released annual statistical report on the region, illustrates its misunderstanding of the data it has collected.

Its headline highlights one fact – that the region’s fastest growth was the number of visitor arrivals in Laos from Myanmar. Indeed, growth is big – +677%. But does PATA know that could be growth from, say, 50 visitors in 2017 to 400 in 2018?

For this reason, we have not excerpted much:

-81% of arrivals into Asia were from Asia.

-For the first time, PATA notes that counts for China and Hong Kong include some that would not normally be visitors. We have been saying that, and estimating the numbers, for 20 years. Although PATA is in a better position to estimate the numbers, it does not.

-Venezuela (yes) is listed as having the fastest annual average growth rate – albeit for arrivals in Chile and Peru.

 

World arrivals Q1

27 May 2019

WTO (World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO) reports for Q1:

-Visitor arrivals +4%; Americas +3%, Asia Pacific +6%, Europe +4%, Middle East +8%.

-Americas. Caribbean +17%; other regions not given.

-Asia Pacific. Northeast +9%; other regions not given.

-Europe. Southern and Mediterranean +5%, Central and Eastern +5%; other regions not given.

-North Africa +11%.

-Forecasts +3-4% for all-2019.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data Updates, May 20-24.

FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data Updates, May 20-24.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Travel business updates

24 May 2019

[] ARC (the Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines), reports for April: air tickets sold US$9.05bn +5.9%; average US roundtrip ticket US$499, flat; passenger trips 27.7mn +4% (domestic – +4.2%, international +3.9%.); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$8.5mn +23.7%; EMD transactions +4%.

[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in Q1 at 20.4mn +2.6%.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports:

-Middle East hotels occupancy +4.1% to 74.6%, average room rate -7.1% to US$148.28:

-US hotels 12-18 May occupancy +0.8% to 70.8%, average room rate +1.4% to US$134.36:

-US hotels April occupancy +0.3 at 68.0%, average room rate +0.9% to US$131.85

[] Travel Mole reports India’s airline seat sales in April were 10.9mn -4.5%.

 

ITB China

23 May 2019

Some data from ITB China (ITBC), held in Shanghai 15-17 May (most growth calculations are ours, from ITBC data published in 2018):

-Total attendees 17,000 +13.3%.

-Conference attendees 4000 +0.0%, speakers 120 +0.0%, topics 70 +0.0%.

-Buyers 850 +6.3%. 40% from 2nd- and 3rd-tier cities. No data in 2018 – just 73% from outside Shanghai.

-Exhibitors 800 +14.3% from 84 +5.0% countries.

-Buyers circle, new in 2019 – 30 agents from 400 agencies.

-Media 300 +15.4%.

 

ICCA on 2018 meetings

22 May 2019

ICCA* has issued its report for 2018. We include some baseline data here, but brief as ICCA’s data is based on single-year counts.

  Our main analysis is based on multi-year results. We are motivated by those in the MICE segment of the travel business – who tell us that single-year figures can be misleading. As a result, we calculate average-annual totals based on 5-year periods – to balance out distortions caused by unusually-big or -small events in one year.

  Surprisingly, the industry itself still works on annual figures! Even more surprising is that in 2013 ICCA said it was following our lead and tracking results in 5-year averages. Despite that, all its analysis and observations continues to be based on single-year figures!

  Our report on this topic is included in the June issue of our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. This contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Some excerpts from ICCA’s single-year data (our calculations on growth):

-12,937 +3.0% meetings.

-Top-3 countries, largest first, US +0.6%, Germany -5.9%, Spain +5.5%. Of note among others, France +14.4%, UK -3.0% (is that Brexit-related?).

-Top-2 from Asia Pacific (only two in published top-10) Japan +18.8%, China +19.4%.

-Top-3 cities Paris +11.6%, Vienna -9.5%, Madrid +7.8%. Of note among others, Barcelona -16.4% (is that Catalonia-troubles related?), London -15.3% (is that Brexit-related?).

-Top-2 from Asia Pacific (only two in published top-10) Singapore -9.4%, Bangkok +22.7%.

*Notes:

-ICCA’s counts are meetings of associations (and follow precise definitions), and thus are just one segment of the big MICE business. We have not seen estimates, but we would be surprised if ICCA’s segment was more than 20% of the total. Why do these counts attract so much interest? (Possibly, we answer ourselves, because no other worldwide trade body tracks the whole MICE business.)

-Until 2009, ICCA gave us additional information for our analysis, but has refused this since. Full data is reserved for ICCA members; a policy with which we agree, even if it causes us some difficulty. As a result, however, our coverage is now limited to meetings numbers, rather than adding commentary on attendance numbers as well.

-ICCA was initially an abbreviation for the International Congress and Conventions Association. Then it used ICCA as a name, which it described as The International Meetings Association. It has now reverted to almost the same – ICCA, International Congress and Convention Association.

-A report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst, contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Travel business updates

21 May 2019

[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in April at 6.5mn +1.8%, YTD 27.0mn +3.4%.

[] Greece’s DMO reports air arrivals Mar -0.2%, YTD +7.7%. Bank of Greece all arrivals Feb +4.0%, YTD +7.0%; spend +29.6%, +41.1%.

[] Ireland‘s growth in visitors will slow over 2018-23, forecasts Global Data (GD). After +3.8% over 2014-18, GD forecasts +3.8% 2018-23.

Its counts show 6.8mn in 2014, 9.3mn +7% (GD rounded) in 2018, and it forecasts +3.9% this year, to 9.7mn. Growth from the UK, leading market, will fall from +6.8% in 2018, to forecast +1.7% this year.

GD says markets in Europe (GD does not include the UK in Europe, although it is) accounted for a 76% share.

Also noted is a forecast +7% this year (GD rounded).

[] MKG* reports Jan-Apr hotel occupancy in Europe* +0.2pt, and what appears to be average room rate (MKG’s description is ‘average price’) +1.5%.

*Notes:

-No definition given for ‘Europe’; we presume it is a list of destinations from which MKG collects data.

-MKG (a France-based hotel consultancy; name origin unknown) focuses on hotel revpar (revenue per available room), which has little marketing value to those outside the hotel business. As a result, we reduce our report to measures other than revpar.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels 5-11 May: occupancy -0.3% to 68.3%, average room rate +1.2% to US$131.72.

 

PATA on 2018 counts

20 May 2019

PATA* reports for 2018:

-Arrivals 699.6mn +7.7%.

-Over 2014-18, Southeast Asia gained 1.34pts of share, North America lost 1.55pts.
-China counted most visitors, 161mn, 22.6% of the Asia Pacific total. However, this includes some movement that we would term ‘excursionist’, particularly land-traffic between China, Hong Kong, Macau. As PATA gives no additional information, it is not possible to determine what share this land-crossing traffic represents.

-AAGRs over 2014-18, Japan +24%, Vietnam +18% respectively. (PATA rounded.) PATA also includes Cyprus in this section. Cyprus is actually an island in the Mediterranean Sea, but PATA erroneously reports it as being in (geographically-non-existent) ‘West Asia’.

*Notes:

-PATA=Pacific Asia Travel Association. PATA’s 39 destinations include many not usually associated with Asia Pacific – such as Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, US, and sometimes Cyprus and Turkey (yes; but, ironically, not Turkey-recognised North Cyprus). PATA’s data should thus be read with that qualification in mind. PATA gives no support (including response to questions) to subscription publishing groups such as ours, and so we are unable to clarify what may be misleading.

-PATA also shows percentage growth in some destinations. We have not shown this because as we have remarked before, a growth from 150,000 visitors to 300,000 is an impressive-sounding +100%. Likewise, growth in numbers. We would show both these if PATA reported the actual figures.

-PATA has reported other data – such as growth without the total – but not actionable data, and so we have not shown these.

-The point of our analysis is that PATA seems to make this seem like a publicity exercise and not to inform.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

TBA Tracking: April travel stocks’ ups and downs

FOXTROTS*

 

 

TBA Tracking: April travel stocks’ ups and downs

Travel stock prices (US, Asia Pacific, Europe) in April.

 

Airlines: biggest growth, Jet Blue +14%; biggest fall, Norwegian -13%.

Hotels: Dusit +21%, Jinjiang -8%.

Tech: eDreams +15%, Amadeus -5%.

China travel stocks (new): HNA (airline, not group; China quote) +0.5%, Jinjiang (HK quote) -8%.

Others: Disney +19%, Thomas Cook -13%.

 

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Jet Airways +21%; biggest fall, Norwegian -24%. Hotels: NH +7%, Wyndham -10%. Tech: cTrip +28%, Trivago -14%. Others: Eurotunnel +4%, Thomas Cook -18%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 228, Asia Pacific 97, Europe 197, US 390. Index previous month: World 222, Asia Pacific 100, Europe 194, US 371.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 132; previous month 128.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth New York-Travel Weekly +12%; biggest fall Shanghai -0.4%. Previous month: biggest growth India +8%; biggest fall Istanbul -10%.

 

Comments:

-Among airlines, Wizz wozz alzo gudd, +13%. India’s Jet was actually lowest, -50% (yes), but it has stopped flying and seems likely to shut down, and so that is a special price.

 

-Among hotels, Wynn was also good, +19%. And two giants showed impressive growth – Choice and Marriott, both +12%.

 

-Among Others, TUI also did well – strangely the opposite of its direct competitor, Thomas Cook. TUI was +13% in its Germany quote, +16% in its UK quote.

 

-Among travel-tech, a fall for Amadeus, -5%, is unusual. To be the fastest faller is even rarer.

 

-Among stockmarkets, Kuala Lumpur’s also fell 0.4%, but fractionally below, where Shanghai was fractionally above.

 

-We have started a China-travel-stocks-track – of China companies, not just China quotes. Our quotes are from Hong Kong and New York as well as Shanghai markets. Oddly, HNA, the airline part of the trouble HNA group, is doing better in China, +0.5%, than the group is doing in Hong Kong, -3%. In HK, trading in HNAG shares is currently suspended.

 

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data Updates, April 22-26

FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data Updates, April 22-26.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Travel business updates

26 April 2019

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports:

-On Middle East hotels Q1 occupancy +0.9% to 71.0%, average room rate -8.8% to US$148.43.

-On US hotels 14-20 April occupancy -6.2% to 65.7%, average room rate -1.9% to US$128.79.

[] PCW (Phocuswright) report on Europe’s three largest markets:

-Germany 43mn outbound travellers, 61% of adults.

-UK 33mn 60%.

-France 32mn 59%.

 

Our outlook for travel

25 April 2019

The following is extracted from our input for an external report.

[] Assessment of travel business in the past four months compared to what we would expect for that period:

–Equal.

Our outlook for this period was not positive, and this has been the outcome. There seem to be more negative (or uncertain, which is almost the same) factors than positive ones. And this seems to be slowing growth in travel, and in some cases, slowing.

  Overall growth, according to WTO data, seems to be continuing as normal. But are there factors that require additional analysis (such as shorter trips, which may show up as bigger spend, because per-day spend is higher for shorter trips than for longer ones)?

[] Assessment of travel business in the next four months compared to what we would expect for that period:

–Equal.

Same reasoning. Outlook has not been positive, and this seems unlikely to change in the next 12 months. Again, there are too many negative factors, and too many circumstances that may get worse.

  If only one or two negatives, that would not be a problem, but if there are more (we could count 10), there is a mathematical chance that at least one will ‘explode’.

 

Travel Canada-US

24 April 2019

Global Data forecasts travel from Canada to the US will fall from 23.3mn in 2013 to 14.9mn in 2022, falling at a -4.8% AAGR (annual average growth rate).

Other GD data:

-Visitor numbers fell from 23.3mn to 18.9mn over 2013-18, a -4.1% AAGR.

-33% of Canada (residents? GD reports ‘Canadians’) have no holiday plans.

-23% take city breaks.

We report on US official data:

-US data and forecasts on arrivals from Canada – 21.1mn +4% in 2018, 22.3mn +2% 2020, 23.7mn +3% 2022.

-That would represent +3.2% 2017-22.

 

Hotel business updates

23 April 2019

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports:

-On US hotels Q1 occupancy +0.4% to 61.8%, average room rate +1.1% to US$129.02.

-On US hotels March occupancy flat at 68.4%, average room rate +0.6% to US$132.66.

 

Russia outbound travel +6%

22 April 2019

Russian nationals made 44mn +6.1% outbound trips in 2018, according to Romir (with some government, some survey, and data).

Apart from border destinations (no data), top-5, were Turkey 5.72mn +26%, Germany 1.30mn +5%, Thailand 1.17mn +7%, Italy 1.09mn +22%, Spain 0.96mn +3%.

Top-5 leisure destinations were Turkey 4.50mn, Thailand 852,000, Italy 805,000, Spain 780,000, and UAE 749,000. Growth not given.

Other findings:

-Nine of top-10 destinations are known (at least in part) for their beach/seaside attractions.

-Of leading leisure destinations, 88% visit Tunisia for leisure reasons; Montenegro 82%; Greece 80%; Bulgaria 79%; UAE 78%.

-No visa required (considered an important factor) for Korea, Montenegro, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, UAE, Vietnam.

-Seaside/water destinations mostly attract youth aged 18-24, the most active travel sector of the market. 53% are interested in such destinations.

-Of those above-60 years, 10% will visit seaside/water destinations.

For this year:

-36% will visit a destination for its beach (or other waters) attractions – plus 16% ‘may’ go, 48% ‘will not’ go.

-17% (18, 65) to a cultural destination to visit sites such as museums, monuments etc. People aged 35-44 are more interested in this, 23%.

-16% (14 70) to an ecotourism destination (including hiking, fishing, rafting). Men chose this 22% compared with 11% for women.

-14% will visit a health resort – most popular among those above-60 years and those with high income (not defined).

-8% (10 82) to ski resorts; 15% of those aged 18-24.

*Notes:

-More in Romir’s Russian Tourism Market Report.

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK: What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.