Travel Industry Data News, October 12-16.

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Travel Industry Data News, October 12-16.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

 

US travel business updates

16 October 2020

[] ARC* reports for US travel agencies for September: air tickets sold US$1.2bn -85%; average US roundtrip ticket US$343 -$153; passenger trips 7.61mn -69% (domestic 5.6mn -65%, international 2mn -78%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$2.30mn -66%; EMD transactions 55.0k -50%.

-Online travel agency ticket sales -51%, corporate bookings -86%, leisure bookings -71%. 

-For September (compared with August 2020), a (ARC) reduced set of measures: air tickets sold US +56%; passenger trips +25% (domestic +24%, international +29%); EMD sales +26%; EMD transactions +55%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

-Any rounding by ARC.

[] STR* reports on US hotels:

-4-10 October occupancy 50.0% (-29.2%), average room rate US$97.67 (-25.9%)

-27 September-3 October 47.9% (-29.6%) US$95.63 (-26.3%)

-20-26 September 48.7% (-31.5%) US$96.38 (-29.6%).

-13-19 September 48.6% (-31.9%) US$95.84 (-28.9%).

-6-12 September 48.5% (-30.2%) US$98.99 (-25.5%)

-30 August-5 September 49.4% (-18.9%) US$100.97 (-17.1%).

-23-29 August 48.2% (-27.7%) US$98.39 (-23.2%)

-16-22 August 48.8% (-30.3%) US$100.08 (-22.7%).

-9-15 August 50.2% (-30.0%) US$101.41 (-23.0%).

-2-8 August 49.9% (-32.6%) US$100.88 (-24.9%).

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

 

 

Travel business updates

15 October 2020

[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in September at 1.14mn -84.1%, YTD 20.1mn -68.2%.

[] Travel deals done*. Global Data* reports on corporate deals (sales, investments, etc) by companies in the world’s travel business in September. Findings include:

-Deals done 102 -11.3%, over August. (GD sometimes compares with average of previous 12 months, which is a better comparison.)

-M&A (mergers and acquisitions) deals were -3.2%, venture-financing -15.8%, private-equity -41.7%, partnership -33.3%, debt offerings -10.5%, equity offerings +4% (GD rounded). No data on another category that GD has – asset transactions.

-Deals fell in (GD-selected) key markets China, Japan, US, grew in UK (which GD reports as same level as Korea). No numbers given.

*Notes:

-Details as reported by Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company. Not all follow standard categorisation.

-We do not know GD’s criteria, but some do not appear to be travel-business deals. For instance, GD has a sub-category ‘tourism & leisure’ – which may be only part travel-business.

-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

 

Canada/US travel survey

14 October 2020

WTTC* and Travel Leaders Group* (together, WT), following a survey*, report:

-99% of respondents (WL define them as travellers, but they are not yet that) in Canada and the US are ‘eager’ to travel again.

-54% say they are ‘dreaming’ of when they can travel again.

-45% have made or started to make travel plans.

-23% plan to travel by end-2020, 70% in 2021, 18% in 2022. As reported; total above 100%.

-Above 50% (figure not given) are concerned about: the risk of being infected when travelling; being stuck while away from home; being quarantined.

-Less than 50% (figure not given) are concerned about: them or family member contracting covid while travelling; getting a refund if trip is cancelled; family members with higher-risk health conditions.

-60% said a requirement for a negative covid test (ie, the patient does not have covid) on arrival would make no difference, or would be regarded as a ‘positive’ (positive requirement; not a positive test). 40% said a negative covid test on arrival would be a deterrent to travelling.

-Of those who plan a holiday, 47% would fly, 21% drive, 22% cruise. Details of remaining 10% not given.

-International ‘destinations of interest’ are 38% Europe, 34% Caribbean, 15% Mexico. The balance is for nearly everywhere else, but not enumerated, although WL add Canada for those surveyed in the US, but do not include the US for travellers from Canada.

-‘Anywhere uncrowded’ is ‘high on the list’ as a desirable destination. That reminds us of a Yogi Berra quote: ‘No one goes there anymore; it’s too crowded’. And our rejoinder: ‘Everyone goes there now; it’s so quiet’.

*Notes:

-WTTC = World Travel & Tourism Council. A UK-based lobby group for the travel business, established in 1990.

-Travel Leaders Group is a US-based company that has 7000 owned, franchised, affiliate travel agencies mainly in Canada, US; other countries noted are Mexico, UK. Main Source: Wikipedia.

-Survey in September. Not clear if by the Travel Leaders Group for WTTC, or something else.

-At press time, WL had not answered our request for clarifications.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Hotel business updates

14 October 2020

STR* reports:

[] On Australia:
-September occupancy 43.1% -42.3%, average room rate US$102 (A$147.50) -17.9%.

-In capital cities November and December booked occupancy 8-17%, in other locations 14-32%.

-For October in Sydney 16%, surrounding Sydney 46%. For December, 10% 20%. 

[] For September:

Dubai hotel occupancy -37.6% to 45.4%, average room rate -20.8% to US$77 (Dh284.15).

London -65.8% 29.7%, -45.3% US$116 (£93.15).

[] On hotel openings March through September: US 55,395, China 23,470, Japan 16,304, Germany 9027, Canada 2748, UK 2481.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-Data selections by STR.

 

 

Travel business updates

12 October 2020

ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-YTD. 1. -60.12%. 2. -67.33%. 3. -68.30%. 4. -53.76%. 5. -61.05%.

 In 7-day periods through:

-October 11. 1. -67.0%. 2. -79.9%. 3. -85.7%. 4. -49.8%. 5. -69.7%.

-October 4. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.0%. 3. -86.1%. 4. -51.1%. 5. -71.5%.

-September 27. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -86.3%. 4. -51.2%. 5. -71.3%.

-September 20. 1. -69.0%. 2. -82.0%. 3. -86.8%. 4. -52.0%. 5. -72.3%.

-September 13. 1. -72.0%. 2. -84.5%. 3. -88.6%. 4. -55.2%. 5. -76.3%.

-September 6. 1. -70.4%. 2. -83.1%. 3. -87.7%. 4. -55.6%. 5. -59.50%.

-August 30. 1. -72.8%. 2. -84.8%. 3. -87.9%. 4. -57.9%. 5. -76.6%.

-August 23. 1. -75.2%. 2. -85.4%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -63.1%. 5. -77.3%.

-August 16. 1. -75.8%. 2. -86.1%. 3. -89.3%. 4. -64.3%. 5. -77.9%.

-August 9. 1. -77.0%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -66.7%. 5. -79.3%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, October 5-9.

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Travel Industry Data News, October 5-9.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks

9 October 2020

The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in September for US hotel companies was 3,329 -7.1% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was -36.8%. Our database shows end-2019 was 5,270 +6.1% +29.5%.

  Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:

  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 147. Previous month 155; end-2019 195.

  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 122. Previous month: 142; end-2019 211.

  -‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 142, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 122, US 261. Previous month: World 155, Asia Pacific 45, Europe 132, US 285. End-2019 World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.

  -The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-TechIndex’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) was at 99. Previous month 103; end-2019 160.

  -The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 89. Previous month 90; end-2019 109.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-TechIndex’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Hotel business updates

8 October 2020

STR* reports on US hotels:

-27 September-3 October occupancy 47.9% (-29.6%), average room rate US$95.63 (-26.3%)

-20-26 September 48.7% (-31.5%) US$96.38 (-29.6%).

-13-19 September 48.6% (-31.9%) US$95.84 (-28.9%).

-6-12 September 48.5% (-30.2%) US$98.99 (-25.5%)

-30 August-5 September 49.4% (-18.9%) US$100.97 (-17.1%).

-23-29 August 48.2% (-27.7%) US$98.39 (-23.2%)

-16-22 August 48.8% (-30.3%) US$100.08 (-22.7%).

-9-15 August 50.2% (-30.0%) US$101.41 (-23.0%).

-2-8 August 49.9% (-32.6%) US$100.88 (-24.9%).

-26 July-1 August 48.9% (-34.5%) US$100.04 (-25.3%)

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel plans

7 October 2020

A survey (in July and August) by OAG* and JD Power* (together OJ):

-79% of those surveyed*, and 81% of those in North America*, plan to fly on domestic routes in the next six months.

-69% 73% plan to fly on international routes in the next six months.

-33% have not (and do not plan to) changed their travel plans because of covid. No separate data for North America. Not reported, but this might properly be termed as 66% have changed their plans because of covid. OJ thus provide no information on what, and in what way, those potential travellers changed/might change their plans.

-Millennials* and Generation-Z* are more likely to fly domestically (84% v 79%), and less likely to change their travel plans (66% v 70%). Region (world or North America) not noted.

-Travel agents (OJ noted only OTAs, although we presume people would want the same from offline travel agents) to provide health notifications on flights and hotels (61%) and covid transmission rates at destinations (53%). Region (world or North America) not noted.

-Safety measures those flying in North America want are: passengers and staff to wear masks; middle-seat empty; distribution of individual disinfectant wipes for personal areas. No separate comment for all-world.

*Notes:

-Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Our outlook

6 October 2020

The following extracted from our input for an external report.

1 What is your assessment of performance in your business May-August 2020 compared to what you reasonably would expect for that period?

Much worse.

2 What have been the main determinants for the evolution of [the travel business] May-August?

There are only negatives. Worst is covid of course. But not just that there has been resurgence of cases in many parts of the world (although some are still on their ‘first wave’), but that it comes with the realisation that so much is still unknown. How long will the pandemic last, when will a vaccine be approved, what changes will this mean to the ‘sentiment’ of travel – business, leisure, MICE, VFR, etc? What will people want? For the moment, the answer is ‘I have no idea’, even if we can all express what we think.

3 What are prospects for performance in your business September-December compared to what you reasonably would expect for that period?

Much worse.

4 What will be the main determinants for the evolution of [the travel business] September-December?

There is only one concern – what happens about covid. Vaccine, 2nd-wave, continued 1st-wave. Hygiene protocols are not so important (although they must continue, and be seen to continue) when infections keep rising. The one hope, again, are proposed ‘travel bubbles’. If these work (but how to measure that?), that could help travel to restart. But, and another negative, so many actions have become political; a government proposes, the opposition opposes. Result: low confidence in the public concerning travel.

5 When do you expect a rebound in the international [travel business] in your market?

By Q2 2021. (The question/answer is misleading because there is likely to be a Dead Cat Bounce in Q2 2021, and perhaps even in Q1. What we need to know is Question 4.)

6 When do you expect the international [travel business] to return to pre-pandemic 2019 levels in your market?

2021. But that’s on the assumption a vaccine is approved in Q1 2021. If not, 6 months after a vaccine is approved.

7 What are the three main factors weighing on the recovery of the international [travel business]? Select three answers

Travel restrictions

Lack of coordinated response among countries

Low consumer confidence

Slow virus containment

Slow flight resumption

Economic environment

Other (please describe)

All of the above. Top-3 in order: Other (Vaccine approval), Travel restrictions, Low consumer confidence (which would start to improve once a vaccine is approved).

8 Is the domestic [travel business] driving the recovery in your market?

Yes, but ‘helping’ rather than ‘driving’; because ‘driving’ implies that it is driving international travel. But there are too many factors involved in ‘recovery’ of international travel.

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates

5 October 2020

ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-YTD. 1. -59.96%. 2. -67.03%. 3. -67.85%. 4. -53.85%. 5. -60.85%.

 In 7-day periods through:

-October 4. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.0%. 3. -86.1%. 4. -51.1%. 5. -71.5%.

-September 27. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -86.3%. 4. -51.2%. 5. -71.3%.

-September 20. 1. -69.0%. 2. -82.0%. 3. -86.8%. 4. -52.0%. 5. -72.3%.

-September 13. 1. -72.0%. 2. -84.5%. 3. -88.6%. 4. -55.2%. 5. -76.3%.

-September 6. 1. -70.4%. 2. -83.1%. 3. -87.7%. 4. -55.6%. 5. -59.50%.

-August 30. 1. -72.8%. 2. -84.8%. 3. -87.9%. 4. -57.9%. 5. -76.6%.

-August 23. 1. -75.2%. 2. -85.4%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -63.1%. 5. -77.3%.

-August 16. 1. -75.8%. 2. -86.1%. 3. -89.3%. 4. -64.3%. 5. -77.9%.

-August 9. 1. -77.0%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -66.7%. 5. -79.3%.

-August 2. 1. -79.1%. 2. -87.3%. 3. -89.7%. 4. -70.8%. 5. -80.5%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

TBA Tracking: September travel stocks’ ups and downs; it’s not getting better

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TBA Tracking: September travel stocks’ ups and downs; it’s not getting better

Commentary (category numbers below):

-In fact, some numbers are getting worryingly-worse.

-Big drop at some big airlines, notably in Europe. For ICAG in Madrid -54%! Have investors lost their confidence in the travel business?

-But it may not be just travel because most stockmarkets fell also, albeit not as much as travel company falls.

-Getting back to end-2019 prices once again looks a distant dream. Note, however, that China’s travel stocks are already +6%.

-That said, even China fell in the month, see below.

-Some surprises (although there are nearly always surprises): Why did media-darling Wizz fall -20%? Why is China’s CITS now 150% above its end-2019 price? Why are US hotels down more than US airlines?

Selected category-specifics:

-Giant airlines, airline groups. China Southern -1%, Delta +0.5%, ICAG -36/54% (London/Madrid), Lufthansa -16%.

-No-frills-airlines. Air Asia +2%, Easyjet -21%, Norwegian -22%, Ryanair -6%, Southwest -0.2%, Spring China +2%, Wizz -20%.

-Giant hotel groups. Accor -7%, InterContinental -7%, Marriott +10%.

-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin +8%, Shangri-La +0.5%.

-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM -4%, Sands -8%, Wynn -18%.

-Planemakers. Airbus -10%, Boeing -1%, Embraer -19%.

-Big airports, airport groups. ADP -4%, Fraport -11%, Guangzhou -11%.

-Cruisers. Carnival -7%, RCC -6%, Star -23%.

-Travel-tech heavies. Amadeus +1%, Booking -10%, Expedia -7%, Trip +3%.

-No-hopers. Hertz -25%, Jet India -2%, Norwegian -22%.

-Big stockmarkets. Frankfurt -2%, Hong Kong -7%, London -2%, Tokyo +0.2%, US (average of our five -3%).

Numbers – Sectors:

-Regions, all sectors. Compared with previous month: Asia Pacific -6%, Europe -15%, US -7%.

Compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -36%, Europe -52%, US -43%.

-Asia Pacific. Compared with previous month: Airlines -3%, Hotels -0.1%, Others -15%.

Compared with end-2019: Airlines -41%, Hotels -24%, Others -42%.

-Europe. Compared with previous month: Airlines -28%, Hotels -10%, Others -28%.

Compared with end-2019: Airlines -61%, Hotels -42%, Others -61%.

-US. Compared with previous month: Airlines -3%, Hotels -8%, Others -10%.

Compared with end-2019: Airlines -56%, Hotels -36%, Others -36%.

-China -2%. Compared with end-2019: +6%. China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) -3%.

Compared with end-2019: -6%.

-Travel-tech -6%.

Compared with end-2019: -32%.

-Stockmarkets -2%.

Compared with end-2019: -7%.

Numbers – Indices:

-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 142, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 122, US 261. Index previous month: World 154, Asia Pacific 45, Europe 132, US 285. Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.

-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 89. Index previous month 90. Index end-2019 105.

-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 99. Index previous month 103. Index end-2019 170.

Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. The February issue included annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, September 21-25.

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Travel Industry Data News, September 21-25.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

TBA Tracking: Market Monitor, October

25 September 2020

An extract from the Market Monitor in current issues W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst – which also includes monthly growth data for principal travel companies in the three regions. Percentage change unless noted otherwise. E=estimate, P=provisional, TBA=Travel Business Analyst.

[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, World: 2020: Jul -80.4%E; Jun -87.5%P; May -90.2%.

[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, Asia Pacific: 2020: Jul -89.7%E; Jun -92.1%P; May -93.0%.

[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, Europe: 2020: Jul -79.5%E; Jun -91.7%P; May -96.0%.

[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, US: 2020: Jul -76.4%E; Jun -83.9%P; May -86.7%.[] World airline stocks index, on 100: 2020: Aug 132; Jul 112; Jun 125. TBA.

[] World air traffic, total RPKs: 2020: Jul -79.8%; Jun -86.5%; May -91.3%. IATA.

[] World hotel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Aug 153; Jul 132; Jun 138. TBA.

[] World travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Aug 154; Jul 132; Jun 137. TBA.

[] World travel-tech stocks index, on 100: 2020: Aug 103; Jul 91; Jun 99. Net Value.

[] World visitor arrivals: 2020: Jun -92.6%; May -96.4%; Apr -97.1%. WTO. [] AsPac travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Aug 45; Jul 40; Jun 44. TBA.

[] AsPac visitor arrivals, estimate: 2020: Jun -98.5%; May -99.2%; Apr -99.6%. TBA.

[] Europe airport passengers, intl: 2020: Jun -93.2%; May -97.8%; Apr -98.4%. ACI.

[] Europe travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Aug 132; Jul 113; Jun 123. TBA.

[] Europe visitor arrivals: 2020: Jun -89.8%; May -96.3%; Apr -97.5%. WTO.

 

US travel business updates

24 September 2020

[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-YTD. 1. -59.55%. 2. -66.32%. 3. -66.85%. 4. -54.08%. 5. -60.24%.

In 7-day periods through:

-September 20. 1. -69.0%. 2. -82.0%. 3. -86.8%. 4. -52.0%. 5. -72.3%.

-September 13. 1. -72.0%. 2. -84.5%. 3. -88.6%. 4. -55.2%. 5. -76.3%.

-September 6. 1. -70.4%. 2. -83.1%. 3. -87.7%. 4. -55.6%. 5. -59.50%.

-August 30. 1. -72.8%. 2. -84.8%. 3. -87.9%. 4. -57.9%. 5. -76.6%.

-August 23. 1. -75.2%. 2. -85.4%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -63.1%. 5. -77.3%.

-August 16. 1. -75.8%. 2. -86.1%. 3. -89.3%. 4. -64.3%. 5. -77.9%.

-August 9. 1. -77.0%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -66.7%. 5. -79.3%.

-August 2. 1. -79.1%. 2. -87.3%. 3. -89.7%. 4. -70.8%. 5. -80.5%.

-July 26. 1. -78.7%. 2. -87.2%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -70.6%. 5. -80.2%.

-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] STR* reports on US hotels:

-13-19 September occupancy 48.6% (-31.9%), average room rate US$95.84 (-28.9%).

-6-12 September 48.5% (-30.2%) US$98.99 (-25.5%)

-30 August-5 September 49.4% (-18.9%) US$100.97 (-17.1%).

-23-29 August 48.2% (-27.7%) US$98.39 (-23.2%)

-16-22 August 48.8% (-30.3%) US$100.08 (-22.7%).

-9-15 August 50.2% (-30.0%) US$101.41 (-23.0%).

-2-8 August 49.9% (-32.6%) US$100.88 (-24.9%).

-26 July-1 August 48.9% (-34.5%) US$100.04 (-25.3%)

-19-25 July 48.1% (-37.9%) US$99.24 (-27.3%).

-12-18 July 47.5% (-38.9%) US$98.56 (-28.0%).

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

 

World region hotel results

23 September 2020

STR* reports on hotels in August:

-Asia Pacific occupancy -31.0% to 50.8%, average room rate -27.3% to US$69.81.

-Central/South America -66.4% 20.2% -34.7% US$53.66.

-Europe -44.6% 43.0%  -13.0% US$124 (€103.95).

-Middle East -32.5% 42.6% -26.3% US$115.46.

US -31.7% 48.6% -22.8% US$102.46.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

WTO on domestic travel

22 September 2020

WTO* reports on domestic travel – as a sector likely to recover from covid faster than international travel. (In fact, this is already happening, and seen in many statistics.)

It reports:

-In 2018, there were 9bn domestic trips.

WTO notes this was 6x international arrivals, but does not note growth, or estimates for 2019. Our database indicates growth was flat in 2018, or perhaps a fractional fall (-0.2%). For 2019 we estimated +3.5%, which is the same growth as for international travel.

  Travel numbers have less value because there are different types of measures, with many not comparable from one destination to the next. As noted above, WTO reports 9bn trips for 2018. We estimate 10bn but, as noted, the total itself does not have much value; country-by-country measures have more actionable value.

-WTO reports that domestic travel spend in (the 37) OECD* destinations is 75% of total travel spend, and in the EU* 1.8x higher than inbound travel spend.

  To partially match presentation of these two measures, we calculate that domestic travel spend: in the OECD is 3x higher than international spend; in the EU 64% of total travel spend.

  Note, however, that the WTO compares with outbound spend for the OECD measure, but with inbound spend for the EU measure. It does not attempt to harmonise these.

-Largest domestic markets in terms of spend are the US US$1tn, Germany US$249bn, Japan US$201bn, UK US$154bn, Mexico US$139bn. Changes or year not given.

-Some initiatives to boost domestic travel: Costa Rica moved all 2020-21 holidays to Mondays to create long weekends; Italy, per-capita (PC) contributions of US$595 (€500) to spend on domestic accommodation; Malaysia US$227 PC vouchers for domestic travel; Malta US$120 (€100) PC vouchers for retail spend; Thailand to subsidise 5mn hotel nights at 40% of ‘normal’ (whatever they are) room rates for five nights.

*Notes:

-OECD. (Most from Wikipedia.) Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. An inter-governmental economic body with 37 member countries. Founded in 1961 to stimulate economic progress and world trade. Sometimes described as a ‘rich-country body’ as its members are in general the wealthiest developed countries.

-EU (European Union) comprises 27 countries since the UK left end-2019.

-WTO – World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO – is a Spain-based UN-designated lobbying body for the travel business.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

TBA Tracking:

Travel Traffic, Asia Pacific, Europe, US, world

21 September 2020

Our ‘TBA Travel Industry Indices’ from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows the following monthly traffic growths*.

World

2020: Jul -80.4%E; Jun -87.5%P; May -90.2%; Apr -91.8%; Mar -62.8%; Feb -8.9%.

Asia Pacific

2020: Jul -89.7%E; Jun -92.1%P; May -93.0%; Apr -96.2%; Mar -64.4%; Feb -27.3%.

Europe

2020: Jul -79.5%E; Jun -91.7%P; May -96.0%; Apr -94.2%; Mar -56.7%; Feb +2.7%.

US

2020: Jul -76.4%E; Jun -83.9%P; May -86.7%; Apr -90.0%; Mar -53.2%; Feb -4.2%.

*Notes:

-Aggregates of airline seats sold, airline RPKs, airport passengers, hotel occupancies, resident departures, travel agency sales, visitor arrivals.

-Percentage change over previous year; E=estimate, P=provisional.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Travel Industry Data News, September 7-18.

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FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, September 7-18.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

US travel business updates

18 September 2020

[] ARC* reports for US travel agencies for August:

-Air tickets sold US$751mn -90%; average US roundtrip ticket US$321 -$162; passenger trips 6.07mn -76% (domestic 4.4mn -72%, international 1.6mn -82%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$1.80mn -73%; EMD transactions 35,508 -70%.

-Compared with July 2020), a (ARC) reduced set of measures: air tickets sold +94%; passenger trips +19% (domestic +22%, international +10%).

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-Any rounding by ARC.

[] STR* reports on US hotels:

-August occupancy 48.6% -31.7%, average room rate US$102.46 -22.8%.

-6-12 September 48.5% (-30.2%) US$98.99 (-25.5%)

-30 August-5 September 49.4% (-18.9%) US$100.97 (-17.1%).

-23-29 August 48.2% (-27.7%) US$98.39 (-23.2%)

-16-22 August 48.8% (-30.3%) US$100.08 (-22.7%).

-9-15 August 50.2% (-30.0%) US$101.41 (-23.0%).

-2-8 August 49.9% (-32.6%) US$100.88 (-24.9%).

-26 July-1 August 48.9% (-34.5%) US$100.04 (-25.3%)

-19-25 July 48.1% (-37.9%) US$99.24 (-27.3%).

-12-18 July 47.5% (-38.9%) US$98.56 (-28.0%).

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

 

Visitors; first half

17 September 2020

WTO* reports:

-Visitor arrivals fell -440mn -65% Jan-Jun, and -93% in June. Number not given.

-By region – Americas -55%, Asia Pacific -72%, Europe -66%, Middle East -57%.

-By sub-region – Northeast Asia -83%, Southern Mediterranean -72%. WTO lists just these two, noting their falls were the greatest.

-Visitor spend -US$460bn Jan-Jun, 5x the fall in 2009 after the 2008 world financial crisis.

-By early September, 53% of destinations had eased travel restrictions.

-In May, WTO forecast based on three scenarios, expecting 58-78% falls for all-2020. It now forecasts -70%.

-It forecasts a return to 2019 visitor arrival numbers will take 2-4 years.

*Notes:

-WTO – World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO – is a Spain-based UN-designated lobbying body for the travel business.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Travel business updates

16 September 2020

[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in August at 853k -88.8%, YTD 19.0mn -66.2%.

[] LTI (Luxury Travel Intelligence) publishes what it counts as the best luxury hotel brands.

We list just LTI’s top-5 – Six Senses 82.8% (of LTI’s 4494-point criteria; SS was #8 in 2019), Aman 82.3% (2), Auberge 79.3% (5; see below), Belmond 78.7% (1), Mandarin Oriental 78.0% (2).

However, we question in/ex-clusion of some other brands. In terms of travelling-public awareness – &Beyond, Alila, Althoff, Auberge, Cheval Blanc, Firmdale, Maybourne, Montage, Nikki Beach, Oetker. In terms of mix (luxury- having the same brandname as standard-hotels – Oberoi). Or exclusion (Regent, Waldorf-Astoria).
*Notes:

-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

France travellers

15 September 2020

A study by VVF* on France travellers found:

-Of those who took a holiday this past summer, 72% were satisfied; another 24% also, but felt concerned about the sanitary measures; 4% were not happy.

-Of the 83% who planned to take a holiday, 73% already did, 11% are due to go this month, 16% decided not to travel.

-Of that 16%, 60% were worried about covid, 17% did not have enough money, 13% problems related to travel agency or employer; 10% because they were concerned about ‘things’.

-90% travelled domestically this year, compared with 76% in 2019, and forecast to be 79% in 2021. Within Europe 9% 17% 15%. Outside Europe 1% 7% 6%.

-Accommodation shares. Camping/holiday centres etc were 77% this year, compared with 65% in 2019, and are forecast to be 74% in 2021. Friends/AirBnB-like 18% 24% 17%. Hotels 3% 11% 6%.

*Notes:

-VVF Ingenierie, a France-based consultant.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

US travel business updates

14 September 2020

[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-YTD. 1. -59.31%. 2. -65.91%. 3. -66.28%. 4. -54.13%. 5. -59.93%.

In 7-day periods through:

-September 13. 1. -72.0%. 2. -84.5%. 3. -88.6%. 4. -55.2%. 5. -76.3%.

-September 6. 1. -70.4%. 2. -83.1%. 3. -87.7%. 4. -55.6%. 5. -59.50%.

-August 30. 1. -72.8%. 2. -84.8%. 3. -87.9%. 4. -57.9%. 5. -76.6%.

-August 23. 1. -75.2%. 2. -85.4%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -63.1%. 5. -77.3%.

-August 16. 1. -75.8%. 2. -86.1%. 3. -89.3%. 4. -64.3%. 5. -77.9%.

-August 9. 1. -77.0%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -66.7%. 5. -79.3%.

-August 2. 1. -79.1%. 2. -87.3%. 3. -89.7%. 4. -70.8%. 5. -80.5%.

-July 26. 1. -78.7%. 2. -87.2%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -70.6%. 5. -80.2%.

-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.

-July 12. 1. -80.7%. 2. -87.7%. 3. -90.4%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -80.6%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] STR* reports on US hotels:

-30 August-5 September occupancy 49.4% (-18.9%), average room rate US$100.97 (-17.1%).

-23-29 August 48.2% (-27.7%) US$98.39 (-23.2%)

-16-22 August 48.8% (-30.3%) US$100.08 (-22.7%).

-9-15 August 50.2% (-30.0%) US$101.41 (-23.0%).

-2-8 August 49.9% (-32.6%) US$100.88 (-24.9%).

-26 July-1 August 48.9% (-34.5%) US$100.04 (-25.3%)

-19-25 July 48.1% (-37.9%) US$99.24 (-27.3%).

-12-18 July 47.5% (-38.9%) US$98.56 (-28.0%).

-5-11 July 45.9% (-38.0%) US$97.33 (-26.8%).

-28 June-4 July 45.6% (-30.2%) US$101.36 (-20.9%).

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

 

Travel business updates

11 September 2020

[] Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company, reports 115 corporate deals (sales, investments, etc) by companies in the worldwide travel business in August. It puts that at +4.5% over July; sometimes it makes comparisons over the same month one year earlier.

[] STR* reports on London hotels in August: occupancy -64.4% to 30.7%, average room rate -42.9% to US$108 (£86.40).

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.

 

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks

10 September 2020

The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in August for US hotel companies was 3,582 +19.0% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was -32.0%.

Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:

-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 155. Previous month: 132.

-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 132. Previous month: 112.

-‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 155, Asia Pacific 45, Europe 132, US 285. Previous month: World 132, Asia Pacific 40, Europe 113, US 243.

-The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) was at 103. Previous month: 91.

-The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 90. Previous month: 83.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

 

Travel business updates

9 September 2020

[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-YTD. 1. -58.97%. 2. -65.40%. 3. -65.59%. 4. -54.11%. 5. -72.7%.

In 7-day periods through:

-September 6. 1. -70.4%. 2. -83.1%. 3. -87.7%. 4. -55.6%. 5. -59.50%.

-August 30. 1. -72.8%. 2. -84.8%. 3. -87.9%. 4. -57.9%. 5. -76.6%.

-August 23. 1. -75.2%. 2. -85.4%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -63.1%. 5. -77.3%.

-August 16. 1. -75.8%. 2. -86.1%. 3. -89.3%. 4. -64.3%. 5. -77.9%.

-August 9. 1. -77.0%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -66.7%. 5. -79.3%.

-August 2. 1. -79.1%. 2. -87.3%. 3. -89.7%. 4. -70.8%. 5. -80.5%.

-July 26. 1. -78.7%. 2. -87.2%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -70.6%. 5. -80.2%.

-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.

-July 12. 1. -80.7%. 2. -87.7%. 3. -90.4%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -80.6%.

-July 5. 1. -79.3%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -88.2%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -79.8%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

US travel business updates

7 September 2020

[] STR* reports on US hotels:

-23-29 August occupancy 48.2% (-27.7%), average room rate US$98.39 (-23.2%)

-16-22 August 48.8% (-30.3%), US$100.08 (-22.7%).

-9-15 August 50.2% (-30.0%), US$101.41 (-23.0%).

-2-8 August 49.9% (-32.6%) US$100.88 (-24.9%).

-26 July-1 August 48.9% (-34.5%), US$100.04 (-25.3%)

-19-25 July 48.1% (-37.9%), US$99.24 (-27.3%).

-12-18 July 47.5% (-38.9 US$98.56 (-28.0%).

-5-11 July 45.9% (-38.0%), US$97.33 (-26.8%).

-28 June-4 July 45.6% (-30.2%), US$101.36 (-20.9%).

-21-27 June 46.2% (-38.7%), US$95.37 (-29.0%).

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-YTD. 1. -58.67%. 2. -64.94%. 3. -64.94%. 4. -54.07%. 5. -59.17%.

In 7-day periods through:

-August 30. 1. -72.8%. 2. -84.8%. 3. -87.9%. 4. -57.9%. 5. -76.6%.

-August 23. 1. -75.2%. 2. -85.4%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -63.1%. 5. -77.3%.

-August 16. 1. -75.8%. 2. -86.1%. 3. -89.3%. 4. -64.3%. 5. -77.9%.

-August 9. 1. -77.0%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -66.7%. 5. -79.3%.

-August 2. 1. -79.1%. 2. -87.3%. 3. -89.7%. 4. -70.8%. 5. -80.5%.

-July 26. 1. -78.7%. 2. -87.2%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -70.6%. 5. -80.2%.

-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.

-July 12. 1. -80.7%. 2. -87.7%. 3. -90.4%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -80.6%.

-July 5. 1. -79.3%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -88.2%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -79.8%.

-June 28. 1. -77.0%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -69.1%. 5. -78.6%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Travel Industry Data News, August 31 – September 4.

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Travel Industry Data News, August 31 – September 4.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Mastercard on travel spend

4 September 2020

Mastercard reports travel & entertainment (T&E) spend in one month* (July) was:

-For fastest-3 recovery markets -25% in Italy, -28% Russia, -28% France.

-Slowest-3 -84% Korea, -82% India, -81% China.

-Selected (by TBA) important markets -34% Australia, -41% Germany, -41% US, -64% UK.

-Other findings: World recovery rate of small independent hotels outpaced recovery of large hotels by 50%. US T&E spend -21.5% in July (-25.9% June).

*Notes:

-Data for one month is risky in normal times, but in these covid times, may be worth almost nothing.

Most are our estimates on MC data.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

WTTC forecasts spend in US

3 September 2020

WTTC* forecasts:

-Spend by visitors to the US this year will be US$155bn below what was originally forecast (we believe by WTTC), which would be -79%.

Other relative past data:
-2019 visitor-spend US$195.1bn, a 16% share; domestic travel 84%.

-New York shares (in 2018) were 45% and 55%.

*Notes:

-WTTC = World Travel & Tourism Council. A UK-based lobby group for the travel business, established in 1990.

-An important part of its work has been to explain to world governments how valuable was the travel business (which, in respect of its name, the WTTC must define as the meaningless ‘travel & tourism’).

-What the WTTC has been struggling to do in its 30 years of existence, was achieved in 4/5 months of the covid coronavirus this year. Surely everyone now knows the value of the travel business?

-Although not expected to disband, WTTC has not yet announced any new/replacement mission.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Travel business updates

2 September 2020

[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) reports July RPKs -79.8%, ASKs -70.1%, load factor 57.9% -27.7pt.

RPKs by region – Asia Pacific -72.2%, Europe -81.3%, Middle East -92.5%, North America -80.6%.

International RPKs -91.9% – Asia Pacific -96.5%, Europe -87.1%, Middle East -93.3%, North America -94.5%.

Domestic RPKs -57.5% – Australia -90.0%, Brazil -77.7%, China -28.4%, Japan -65.2%, Russia -17.1%, US -72.6%.

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] Updates from France:

-A survey by France’s DMO found the following markets thinking of a leisure trip to France in the next six months, in order of interest: France 68%, Belgium 24, Switzerland 15, Netherlands 12, China 9, Germany 8, Spain 7, UK 7, Italy 6, US 5.

-Those using Ski-Mojo* on ski slopes in France this past winter totalled 9000 +35%.

*Notes: Leg-support equipment, helping skiers ski longer and better.

 

TBA Tracking: August travel stocks – mainly ups!

1 September 2020

Commentary (category numbers below):

-Travel stocks in our three regions grew over the month, although they are still well below their end-2019 prices. See below.

-Despite that generally good news, some big unexpected falls – SAS -18%, Genting -35%, CITS -14%.

-Outside China, those back to end-2019 levels – Avis +6% its end-2019 price, China Airlines -5%, Choice -4%, Wizz -0.2%. In China, CITS, Jinjiang Hotels, Spring, are above their end-2019 prices.

-Airlines did not grow as fast as hotels (except in AsPac, although the hotel sector there is less developed), but at least they grew.

Some specifics:

-Giant airlines, airline groups. China Southern +10%, Delta +24%, ICAG +27%/+21% (London/Madrid), Lufthansa +16%.

-No-frills-airlines. Air Asia +3%, Easyjet +28%, Norwegian -47%, Ryanair +15%, Southwest +22%, Spring China +11%, Wizz +21%.

-Giant hotel groups – Accor +22%, InterContinental +25%, Marriott 23%. (The first-2 boosted by merger rumours?)

-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin, Shangri-La both +13%.

-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM +40%, Sands +16%, Wynn +21%.

-Planemakers. Airbus +12%, Boeing +9%.

-Big airports, airport groups. ADP +11%, Fraport +16%, Guangzhou +7%.

-Cruisers. Good for Carnival +19% and RCC +41%, but bad for Star -35% (but its business model is mixed).

-Travel-techs. Good; only one fall, Lastminute -4%.

-No-hopers mixed. Norwegian -47% but Hertz +1%, Jet India flat.

-TUI, despite bad general news, +15% in Frankfurt, +14% in London, but still -68%/-65% since end-2019.

Numbers – Sectors:

-Regions, all sectors. Compared with previous month: Asia Pacific +3%, Europe +13%, US +18%. Compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -32%, Europe -45%, US -38%.

-Asia Pacific. Compared with previous month: Airlines +13%, Hotels +5%, Others -9%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -39%, Hotels -24%, Others -34%.

-Europe. Compared with previous month: Airlines +7%, Hotels +19%, Others +11%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -50%, Hotels -36%, Others -48%.

-US. Compared with previous month: Airlines +19%, Hotels +21%, Others +16%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -54%, Hotels -30%, Others -30%.

-China +7%. Compared with end-2019: +7%. China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) +7%. Compared with end-2019: -4%.

-Travel-tech +12%. Compared with end-2019: -28%.

-Stockmarkets +3%. Compared with end-2019: -5%. Above their end-2019 levels Korea New York-Nasdaq New York-S&P New Zealand Shanghai Stockholm Taipei.

Numbers – Indices:

-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 154, Asia Pacific 45, Europe 132, US 285. Index previous month: World 132, Asia Pacific 40, Europe 113, US 243. Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.

-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 90. Index previous month 83. Index end-2019 105.

-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 103. Index previous month 91. Index end-2019 170.

  Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. The February issue included annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

 

TBA Tracking: Airline financial results compared

31 August 2020

Our results database compares latest airline results against our calculated non-industry-standard measures*. For Qantas whole group US$259 revenue-per-seat-sold, US$2.25 operating-profit-per-seat-sold (year earlier US$216 US$15.7).

*Notes: Data from airline, and most excerpted from the current Asia Pacific edition of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

TBA Tracking: August travel stocks – mainly ups!

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TBA Tracking: August travel stocks – mainly ups!

Commentary (category numbers below):

Travel stocks in our three regions grew over the month, although they are still well below their end-2019 prices. See below.

 

-Despite that generally good news, some big unexpected falls – SAS -18%, Genting -35%, CITS -14%.

 

-Outside China, those back to end-2019 levels – Avis +6% its end-2019 price, China Airlines -5%, Choice -4%, Wizz -0.2%. In China, CITS, Jinjiang Hotels, Spring, are above their end-2019 prices.

 

-Airlines did not grow as fast as hotels (except in AsPac, although the hotel sector there is less developed), but at least they grew.

 

 

Some specifics:

Giant airlines, airline groups. China Southern +10%, Delta +24%, ICAG +27%/+21% (London/Madrid), Lufthansa +16%.

 

-No-frills-airlines. Air Asia +3%, Easyjet +28%, Norwegian -47%, Ryanair +15%, Southwest +22%, Spring China +11%, Wizz +21%.

 

-Giant hotel groups – Accor +22%, InterContinental +25%, Marriott 23%. (The first-2 boosted by merger rumours?)

 

-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin, Shangri-La both +13%.

 

-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM +40%, Sands +16%, Wynn +21%.

 

-Planemakers. Airbus +12%, Boeing +9%.

 

-Big airports, airport groups. ADP +11%, Fraport +16%, Guangzhou +7%.

 

-Cruisers. Good for Carnival +19% and RCC +41%, but bad for Star -35% (but its business model is mixed).

 

-Travel-techs. Good; only one fall, Lastminute -4%.

 

-No-hopers mixed. Norwegian -47% but Hertz +1%, Jet India flat.

 

-TUI, despite bad general news, +15% in Frankfurt, +14% in London, but still -68%/-65% since end-2019.

 

 

Numbers – Sectors:

Regions, all sectors. Compared with previous month: Asia Pacific +3%, Europe +13%, US +18%.

Compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -32%, Europe -45%, US -38%.

 

-Asia Pacific. Compared with previous month: Airlines +13%, Hotels +5%, Others -9%.

Compared with end-2019: Airlines -39%, Hotels -24%, Others -34%.

 

-Europe. Compared with previous month: Airlines +7%, Hotels +19%, Others +11%.

Compared with end-2019: Airlines -50%, Hotels -36%, Others -48%.

 

-US. Compared with previous month: Airlines +19%, Hotels +21%, Others +16%.

Compared with end-2019: Airlines -54%, Hotels -30%, Others -30%.

 

-China +7%. Compared with end-2019: +7%. China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) +7%.

Compared with end-2019: -4%.

 

-Travel-tech +12%.

Compared with end-2019: -28%.

 

-Stockmarkets +3%.

Compared with end-2019: -5%.

Above their end-2019 levels Korea New York-Nasdaq New York-S&P New Zealand Shanghai Stockholm Taipei.

 

 

Numbers – Indices:

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 154, Asia Pacific 45, Europe 132, US 285.

Index previous month: World 132, Asia Pacific 40, Europe 113, US 243.

Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.

 

-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 90.

Index previous month 83.

Index end-2019 105.

 

-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 103.

Index previous month 91.

Index end-2019 170.

 

 

Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. The February issue included annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Travel Industry Data News, August 24-28.

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FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, August 24-28.

 

Travel business updates

28 August 2020

[] Hong Kong-based Shangri-La Hotels Jan-Jun results include:

-Revenue US$453.5mn (quoted in US$) -62.1%.

-Occupancy 26% -40pts, average room rate US$139, which we calculate is -16.8%.

-Highest occupancy Singapore 42%, which we calculate is -36pts; highest rate France US$1128, which we calculate is -7.5%.

SLH now includes Hong Kong as part of China, not a semi-separate special zone in China – as its official name.

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] GD* forecasts overtourism this year. However, it gives no data, only forecasts international departures from Europe’s main markets – France, Germany, Italy, UK – will be -40% this year, domestic -25%.

*Notes:

-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.

-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.

-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

[] STR* reports on US hotels:

-16-22 August occupancy 48.8% (-30.3%), average room rate US$100.08 (-22.7%).

-9-15 August 50.2% (-30.0%), US$101.41 (-23.0%).

-2-8 August 49.9% (-32.6%) US$100.88 (-24.9%).

-26 July-1 August 48.9% (-34.5%), US$100.04 (-25.3%)

-19-25 July 48.1% (-37.9%), US$99.24 (-27.3%).

-12-18 July 47.5% (-38.9 US$98.56 (-28.0%).

-5-11 July 45.9% (-38.0%), US$97.33 (-26.8%).

-28 June-4 July 45.6% (-30.2%), US$101.36 (-20.9%).

-21-27 June 46.2% (-38.7%), US$95.37 (-29.0%).

-14-20 June -41.8% to 43.9%, -31.7% to US$92.20.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

 

Travel business updates

27 August 2020

[] PCW (Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data) reports on Japan‘s travel market:

-2019 gross bookings US$104.4bn (quoted in US$) +3.6%, 2nd after China.

-Forecast this year US$47.8bn -54.2%.

-Once highest online penetration in AsPac – 42% 2018, 43% 2019, forecast 45% this year. Now 4th after Australia/New Zealand (which PCW reports as a single market), China, India.

-Forecast share this year 45% of travel bookings will be made online.

-Channel shares (our Net Value estimates on PCW data) – 2018 supplier 27%, OTA 18%, offline 55%; 2019 28% 19% 53%; forecast this year 30% 20% 50%.

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] A study by IGLTA* found:

-66% of its members would ‘feel comfortable’ travelling again for leisure before end-2020; September and October most popular.

-45% would be likely/very likely to take a shorthaul flight (up to 3-hours) in the next six months.

*Notes:

-The industry segment, and thus the initials, is complicated. US-based IGLTA is formally the International LGBTQ+ Travel Association; before it added Q as a category, it was the International Gay & Lesbian Travel Association. Of those, L=lesbian, G=Gay, B=Bi-sexual, T=trans-sexual, Q=queer (US meaning, not UK), and the + is for other categories. One count gave 27 categories – which may mean the industry segment is now too diverse to warrant a specific marketing approach.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] Global Data reports on deals* by companies in the travel business in July:

Deals done 110 +0.9%. GD usually gives growth over average of last 12 months, but this one over previous month.

*Notes:

-We do not know GD’s criteria, but some do not appear to be travel-business deals. For instance, GD has a sub-category ‘tourism & leisure’ – which may be only part travel-business.

-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index

26 August 2020

Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 91 in July. Index previous month 99. Index end-2019 157.

Comments:

-July results were disappointing – another fall in our Index, and still further below the 100 baseline.

-Yet part of the disappointment is that travel-tech was generally assumed likely to perform better than all-travel.

-As last month, five of our eight stocks were falling, but different ones. Only Booking, Trip, Trip Advisor grew.

-There does not seem to be a close like with moves in their local stockmarkets. In the two stockmarkets that fell, our travel-tech stocks fell further.

-Four are still below their base price. That’s a continuing surprise for Expedia and Trip, but Trivago has been falling for most of the time it has been listed.

-All eight are still below their pre-covid prices, this past January. (Not shown in table.)

-We are frequently caught out with trends. With April results, we thought none seemed likely to catch up in statistical terms for at least 3/4 months. In May, we thought Booking’s trend line indicated it might recover by end-July. In June, it fell back again, and then recovered in July! Now, along with Trip, both are around -20% of their end-2019 prices; recovery, then, before end-2020?

*Notes: NVTT = Net-Value Travel-Tech. The NVTT Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US – one of which, Trip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for Trip, end-2016 for Trip Advisor, Trivago.

 

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-20

Company Price,local currency Growth┼,% NVTT* index
Jul 20 Jun 20 May 20 Dec 19 Dec 18 Dec 15 stock market Company All
Amadeus 42.4 46.4 46.9 72.8 60.8 40.7 -8.7 -4.5 128 140
Booking╪ 1662 1592 1639 2054 1722 1275 4.4 6.8 146 159
eDreams 1.79 2.47 2.86 4.27 2.38 1.90 -27.5 -4.5 108 119
Expedia 81.0 82.2 79.5 108 113 124 -1.4 4.8 95 104
Lastminute 20.5 22.8 20.2 46.0 17.5 13.1 -10.1 -0.2 137 150
Trip╪ 27.2 25.9 25.9 34.9 27.1 46.8 4.9 4.8 58 64
Trip Advisor 20.2 19.0 20.0 30.4 53.6 NA 6.4 4.8 44 48
Trivago 1.82 1.97 2.10 2.62 5.63 na -7.6 4.8 15 17

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed: Booking from Priceline in 2018; Trip from cTrip in 2019. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

 

Travel business updates

25 August 2020

[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-YTD. 1. -58.30%. 2. -64.41%. 3. -64.28%. 4. -53.98%. 5. -58.71%.

In 7-day periods through:

-August 23. 1. -75.2%. 2. -85.4%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -63.1%. 5. -77.3%.

-August 16. 1. -75.8%. 2. -86.1%. 3. -89.3%. 4. -64.3%. 5. -77.9%.

-August 9. 1. -77.0%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -66.7%. 5. -79.3%.

-August 2. 1. -79.1%. 2. -87.3%. 3. -89.7%. 4. -70.8%. 5. -80.5%.

-July 26. 1. -78.7%. 2. -87.2%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -70.6%. 5. -80.2%.

-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.

-July 12. 1. -80.7%. 2. -87.7%. 3. -90.4%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -80.6%.

-July 5. 1. -79.3%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -88.2%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -79.8%.

-June 28. 1. -77.0%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -69.1%. 5. -78.6%.

-June 21. 1. -76.5%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -89.8%. 4. -67.0%. 5. -78.9%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] UK-based Juniper Research forecasts:

Digital ticketing transaction volumes will grow to 32bn (JR rounded) in 2022. It puts this as +150% growth. It is actually +152% – but that is based on JR’s 12.7bn forecast for this year; it gives no data for 2019. We calculate 2020-22 AAGR (annual average growth rate) would be +58.8%; we believe that is not fast as we estimate a Dead Cat Bounce would produce around +50% in 2021 over 2020.

-Ticket sales to recover from 18bn fall in 2020. JR provides no further data. We do not know what the 18bn is, or when it will recover.

-Digital ticket values forecast to fall -US$400bn this year. No further data.

-Contactless ticketing transaction volumes forecast to grow to 13bn in 2022. JR reports this as +200% growth, although its own figures calculate to +664.7%! We calculate 2020-22 AAGR +176.5%.

*Notes:

-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

-A full report on this topic in our Net Value monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] Consumer Choice Center reports top passenger-friendly airports in Europe – Zurich 205 points, Dusseldorf 165, Copenhagen 155, Manchester 153,  Brussels 152.

 

TBA Tracking: Market Monitor, September

24 August 2020

An extract from the Market Monitor in current issues W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst – which also includes monthly growth data for principal travel companies in the three regions. Percentage change unless noted otherwise. E=estimate, P=provisional, TBA=Travel Business Analyst.

[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, World: 2020: Jun -85.7%E; May -90.8%P; Apr -91.8%.

[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, Asia Pacific: 2020: Jun -91.8%E; May -95.8%P; Apr -96.2%%.

[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, Europe: 2020: Jun -88.7%E; May -94.9%P; Apr -94.2%.

[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, US: 2020: Jun -82.7%E; May -86.7%P; Apr -90.0%.

[] World airline stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jul 112; Jun 125; May 137. TBA.

[] World air traffic, total RPKs: 2020: Jun -86.5%; May -91.3%; Apr -94.3%. IATA.

[] World hotel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jul 132; Jun 138; May 144. TBA.

[] World travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jul 132; Jun 137; May 136. TBA.

[] World travel-tech stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jul 91; Jun 99; May 100. Net Value.

[] World visitor arrivals: 2020: May -97.6%; Apr -96.9%; Mar -55.0%. WTO.

[] AsPac travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jul 40; Jun 44; May 44. TBA.

[] AsPac visitor arrivals, estimate: 2020: May -99.2%; Apr -99.6%; Mar -64.4%. TBA.

[] Europe airport passengers, intl: 2020: May -97.8%; Apr -98.4%; Mar -59.5%. ACI.

[] Europe travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jul 113; Jun 123; May 126. TBA.

[] Africa visitor arrivals: 2020: May -98.5%; Apr -95.8%. WTO.

[] China travel stocks index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US), on 100: 2020: Jul 83; Jun 78; May 80; Apr 81. TBA.

[] Eva Air seat sales: 2020: Jul -95.8%; Jun -97.5%; May -98.0%.

[] Frankfurt airport passengers: 2020: Jul -80.9%; Jun -90.9%; May -95.6%.

[] Hawaii visitor arrivals: 2020: Jun -98.2%; May -98.9%.

[] Hong Kong visitor arrivals: 2020: Jun -99.3%; May -99.8%; Apr -99.9%.

[] North America air traffic, total RPKs: 2020: Jun -86.3%; May -92.5%; Apr -96.6%. IATA.

[] Ryanair seat sales: 2020: Jul -70.3%; Jun -97.2%; May -99.5%.

[] Singapore Airlines seat sales: 2020: Jul -98.6%; Jun -99.3%; May -99.5%.

[] South America visitor arrivals: 2020: May -99.6%; Apr -98.6%. WTO.

[] Southwest Airlines seat sales: 2020: Q2 -85.0%; Q1 -20.9%.

[] Spain visitor arrivals: 2020: May -100%; Apr -100%; Mar -64.3%. Tourmis/WTO.

[] UK resident departures: 2020: Q1 -23.5%. 2019: Dec +4.3%; Nov +5.0%. gov.

[] UK visitor arrivals: 2020: Q1 -16.1%. 2019: Dec +12.0%; Nov -1.2%. gov.

[] US hotel occupancy: 2020: Jun -42.6%; May -51.8%. STR.

[] US outbound travel, overseas: 2019: Dec +5.0%; Nov +2.9%.

[] US travel agency sales: 2020: Jun -94.0%; May -102.1%. ARC.

[] US travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Jul 243; Jun 243. TBA.

[] US visitor arrivals, overseas (2017 restated Sep 18): 2020: Jun -98.9%; May -99.4%.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Travel Industry Data News, August 17-21.

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Travel Industry Data News, August 17-21.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Travel business updates

21 August 2020

[] MKG* (a France-based hotel consultancy; name origin unknown) has reported some hotel data for summer*. Some excerpts (our commentary; see also Notes):

[] France occupancy (Jan-mid/Aug) 80%, Paris 47%.

Although Paris is a big tourist destination in July and August, reduced business travel in those months lowers total occupancy. In addition, this year results were obviously affected by covid. All-France was less affected by covid as greater domestic travel boosted totals.

[] July. France occupancy 51%, average room rate US$97 (at US$1 to €0.84); Italy 36 117; Germany 35 101; Spain 30 136. MKG does not report the region’s biggest market, the UK.

*Notes:

-MKG focuses on hotel revpar (revenue per available room), which has little marketing value to those outside the hotel business. As a result, we reduce our report to measures other than revpar.

-Surprisingly, MKG does not define ‘summer’, but we assume it is reporting for July through August 16, although ‘summer’ should normally be July-plus-August. We presume competitive pressure pushes MKG to give some results before the end of the period covered!

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in Q2 0.4mn -97.8%, YTD 17.6mn -56.7%.

[] STR* reports on hotels in July:

-Asia Pacific occupancy -36.5% to 46.3%, average room rate -30.6% to US$64.35.

-Brazil -71.7% to 17.0%, -28.1% to US$39 (R208.61).

-Central/South America -68.6% to 19.0%, -33.8% to US$53.40.

-Europe (not defined) -66.4% to 26.5%, -20.9% to US$114.80 (at US$1 to €0.84).

-Middle East -41.8% to 35.3% -9.6% to US$106.93.

-UK -67.1% to 28.0%, -36.3% to US$83 (£66.74).
*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Travel business updates

20 August 2020

[] ARC* reports for US travel agencies for July: air tickets sold US$387mn -95%; average US roundtrip ticket US$355 -$143; passenger trips 5.12mn -80% (domestic 3.6mn -77%, international 1.4mn -84%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$1.74mn -75%; EMD transactions 32.5k -73%.

-For July (compared with June 2020), a (ARC) reduced set of measures: passenger trips -10% (domestic -14%, international +2%).

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-Any rounding by ARC.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] STR* reports on US hotels:

-9-15 August occupancy 50.2% (-30.0%), average room rate US$101.41 (-23.0%)

-2-8 August 49.9% (-32.6%) US$100.88 (-24.9%).

-26 July-1 August 48.9% (-34.5%), US$100.04 (-25.3%)

-19-25 July 48.1% (-37.9%), US$99.24 (-27.3%).

-12-18 July 47.5% (-38.9 US$98.56 (-28.0%).

-5-11 July 45.9% (-38.0%), US$97.33 (-26.8%).

-28 June-4 July 45.6% (-30.2%), US$101.36 (-20.9%).

-21-27 June: 46.2% (-38.7%), US$95.37 (-29.0%).

-14-20 June -41.8% to 43.9%, -31.7% to US$92.20.

-7-13 June -43.4% 41.7%, -33.9% to US$89.09.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

[] OE* forecasts visitor arrivals (VAs) will fall -57% this year, which would mean 847mn fewer arrivals. Other forecasts:

-VAs to return to 2019 levels ‘by 2024’. OE does not give totals, nor clarify if that is a total for 2023 or 2024; we believe it is 2024.

-Region VAs this year. North America -69% ((it also reports -70%) this year, Asia Pacific -57% or -203mn, Northeast Asia -61%, Europe -56% or -414mn arrivals.

-Destination VAs this year. Spain -55%, US -76.5% or -61mn VAs.

-City VAs this year, top-3 in three regions. Bangkok -66% (-14.5mn all-Thailand), Hong Kong -71%, Macau -60%. London -60% or -9.8mn, Paris -48%, Rome -53%. Los Angeles -77%, New York -79%, Orlando -78%.

-Domestic VAs forecast to return to 2019 levels ‘by 2022’. OE does not give totals, nor clarify if that is a total for 2021 or 2022; we believe it is 2022.

*Notes:

-OE = UK-based Oxford Economics, unrelated to the university.

-Topics and numbers selected by OE.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Travel business updates

19 August 2020

[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-YTD. 1. -57.83%. 2. -63.84%. 3. -63.54%. 4. -53.74%. 5. -58.20%.

In 7-day periods through:

-August 16. 1. -75.8%. 2. -86.1%. 3. -89.3%. 4. -64.3%. 5. -77.9%.

-August 9. 1. -77.0%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -66.7%. 5. -79.3%.

-August 2. 1. -79.1%. 2. -87.3%. 3. -89.7%. 4. -70.8%. 5. -80.5%.

-July 26. 1. -78.7%. 2. -87.2%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -70.6%. 5. -80.2%.

-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.

-July 12. 1. -80.7%. 2. -87.7%. 3. -90.4%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -80.6%.

-July 5. 1. -79.3%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -88.2%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -79.8%.

-June 28. 1. -77.0%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -69.1%. 5. -78.6%.

-June 21. 1. -76.5%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -89.8%. 4. -67.0%. 5. -78.9%.

-June 14. 1. -75.2%. 2. -56.32%. 3. -54.79%. 4. -48.16%. 5. -51.07%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in July 563k -92.9%, YTD 18.1mn -62.7%.

[] STR* reports July US hotels occupancy 47.0% -36.1%, average room rate US$101.76 -24.8%.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

 

Travel deals done

18 August 2020

Global Data reports on deals* by companies in the travel business. Findings include:

[] In Europe Q2:

-Deals done 53 -53.1% over average of last 4 Qs, which was 113.

-Deals done worth US$2.81bn.

-M&A (mergers and acquisitions) accounted for 35 deals, a 66.0% share, worth US$2.64bn. Venture-financing 12 US$42.26mn, Private-equity six US$128.67mn.

-Top-5 deals worth US$2.69bn, 95.6% share.

[] In the US Q2:

-Deals done 35 -37.5% over Q1, and -50% (GD rounded) over last four Qs average.

-Deals done worth US$387.67mn -94.4% over Q1, and -96.4% over last four Qs average of US$10.73bn.

-US M&A (mergers and acquisitions) worth US$3.64bn, 10.7% share.

-Top-5 deals worth US$380.6mn, 98.2% share.

[] North America deals Q2

-Deals done 60, -52% over average of last 12 months, which was 125.

-Deals done worth US$3.3bn. Growth not given.

-Leading category, deals: M&A 30 deals, 60% share; venture financing 20, 33.3%; private equity 4, 6.7%.

-Leading category, value: private equity US$2.25bn; venture financing US$666.95mn; M&A US$387.67mn.

[] M&A deals Q2

-Deals done worth US$3.64bn -71.8% over last Q, and -80.4% over average of last 4 Qs, which was US$18.59bn.

-Europe top, US$2.64bn; Sweden top US$2.32bn.

-Top country US 35 deals, UK 15, China 10.

[] M&A deals H1

-Deals done worth US$16.58bn -58.3%.

[] Venture financing deals Q2

-Deals done worth US$1.09bn +86.6% over Q1, and -39.9% over average of last 4 Qs, which was US$1.91bn.

-Top region North America US$667.0mn.

-Top country US US$597.0mn.

-Top country US 19 deals, India 9, China 8.

[] Venture financing deals H1

-Deals done worth US$1.67bn -65.4%.

-Top-5 US$779.01m, 71.7% share. Growth not given.

*Notes:

-Details as reported by GD. Not all follow standard categorisation. Not all same, or same data, etc.

-We do not know GD’s criteria, but some do not appear to be travel-business deals. For instance, GD has a sub-category ‘tourism & leisure’ – which may be only part travel-business.

-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Aviation business updates

17 August 2020

[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) reports* on Europe:

-August flights -50%.

-Seat sales all-2020 forecast 705mn -60% (IATA uses an irregular term, ‘passenger journeys’; we wonder if IATA counts a traveller Paris-Dubai(flight change)-Singapore-return as 1 passenger journey or 4).

-Seat sales forecast to reach 2019 levels in 2024.

-JAR (Jobs at Risk) in aviation (IATA includes undefined ‘tourism’, but we assume it means the total travel business) 7mn jobs. (IATA’s previous estimate in June was 6mn.)

-Selected markets, by TBA, August (key: Seat sales/Jobs at Risk/GDP): Germany -118mn/551k/-US$39bn; UK -165mn/780k/-US$59bn. (Most rounded by TBA.)

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) reports* on the Middle East:

-All-2020 traffic forecast to fall -56%. (IATA’s previous estimate in June was -51%.)

-Aviation GDP -US$85bn. (-US$66bn.)

-Job losses in aviation and related industries could be 1.5mn, which we calculate is a 63% share of the region’s total. (1.2mn.)

-Selected markets, by TBA, August (key: Seat sales/Jobs at Risk/GDP): Egypt -14mn/298k/-US$4bn; Saudi Arabia -39mn/323k/-US$20bn; UAE -35mn/421k/-US$26bn. (Most rounded by TBA.)

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Travel Industry Data News, August 10-14.

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FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, August 10-14.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Travel business updates

14 August 2020

[] PCW (Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data) reports on air trends in selected markets:

-H2 available seats: US 62mn -33%, Brazil 6mn -44%, Canada 5mn -47%, Mexico 5mn -31%.

-July available seats: US 50mn, Brazil 3mn, Canada 2mn, Mexico 4mn. August: 82 12 7 7. September: 93 12 8 8. October: 100 12 8 8. November: 96 12 7 8. December: 99 13 8 9.

-Searches. H1 US 299mn -20%, H1 Mexico -40%. July China +100% (against August), for July India +300% (against August). (Numbers, categories, as shown. As released mid-August, this number will presumably decrease; PCW makes no comment.)

-July available seats Europe -47%.

-Q2 available seats Australia -90%.

-Search shares, July: US domestic 65%, international 35%, Brazil 58%/42%, Canada 26%/74%, Mexico 39%/61%. August: 53/47 53/47 23/77 33/67. September: 47/53 45/55 16/84 30/70. October: 47/53 40/60 11/89 32/68. November: 41/59 28/72 6/94 31/69. December:  31/69 35/65 6/94 34/66.

-Searches, Jan-Jun: China +11% -52% -44% -48% -32% -23%. India +3 +9 -1 -67 -58 -72. Japan +6 +3 -18 -44 -49 -48. Australia -1 0 -12 -87 -91 -87. UAE -1 +2 -31 -88 -86 -85

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] STR/TE* forecast 2021 US hotel room revenue +US$32bn -32.5% below 2019 revenue.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-TE = Tourism Economics, US-based. Part of Oxford Economics, UK-based, and unrelated to the university.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Travel business updates

13 August 2020

[] Cote d’Azur’s DMO reports on summer (presumed July/August but report in mid-August):

-July hotel occupancy 58% – 39% in the first week, 72% at the end. (Comparison not given.)

-August 1st 2-weeks 85% -4pts.

-July visits, museums and monuments -40%. (Number not given.)

*Notes:

-Cote d’Azur (CDA) in France – a ‘brandname’ also known as the South of France, the French Riviera, or sometimes by the names of some of its main cities, Cannes, Monaco/Monte Carlo, Nice, St Tropez. The problem is brand identity; knowing what is meant by CDA.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] GD* reports on TUI’s Apr-Jun results (its Q3):

-Summer 2021 bookings +145%. GD does not clarify comparison measure (S20 bookings or actuals). This is important because of the covid distortion this year.

-Revenue US$88.7mn (€75mn) -98.5%.

*Notes:

-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] STR* reports on US hotels:

-2-8 August occupancy 49.9% (-32.6%), average room rate US$100.88 (-24.9%).

-26 July-1 August 48.9% (-34.5%), US$100.04 (-25.3%)

-19-25 July 48.1% (-37.9%), US$99.24 (-27.3%).

-12-18 July 47.5% (-38.9 US$98.56 (-28.0%).

-5-11 July 45.9% (-38.0%), US$97.33 (-26.8%).

-28 June-4 July 45.6% (-30.2%), US$101.36 (-20.9%).

-21-27 June: 46.2% (-38.7%), US$95.37 (-29.0%).

-14-20 June -41.8% to 43.9%, -31.7% to US$92.20.

-7-13 June -43.4% 41.7%, -33.9% to US$89.09.

-31 May-6 June: -45.3% 39.3%, -35.9% US$85.01.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

 

Travel business updates

12 August 2020

[] Findings from an ITB China (ITBC) survey on industry-participants in the China travel market include:

-90% say travel is a preferred leisure activity.

-40% have recently received enquiries from consumers about outbound travel.

-Over May and June, 60% said their clients were interested in buying travel products.

-Annual spend in the next year. 10.5% estimate under US$700, 60% US$700-2800, 24% US$2800-7060, 5.5% above US$7060. (ITBC roundings.)

-During the Tomb-Sweeping public holiday in April, there were 43.3mn domestic visitors spending US$1.18bn. (Methodology and comparisons not given.)

-During public holidays in May, there were 115mn domestic visitors spending US$6.79bn. (Ditto.)

-During the Dragon Boat public holiday in June, there were 48.8mn domestic visitors spending US$1.75bn. (Ditto.)

-Highest visitor numbers to ‘popular destinations’ has grown +273% over previous period (believed to be start-July to mid-July). Highest number of ‘tourists from popular departure destinations’ +1200% month-on-month. (Methodology, descriptions, numbers, not given.)

*Notes:

-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] STR* reports on hotels in July:

London occupancy -74.8% to 22.8%, average room rate -52.4% to  US$105 (£83.61).

Sydney -57.9% to 33.2%, -25.7% to US$100 (A$143.68).

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Travel business updates

11 August 2020

[] Flightright (FR) reports flights from selected (by TBA) France airports in July:

-Nice -51.3%.

-Paris CDG -51% (FR rounded).

-Paris-Orly -72% (ditto).

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] GD* reports on Royal Caribbean’s Q2:

-Q2 net loss -US$1.6bn; Q1 -US$1.4bn.

-Cash reserves US$4.1bn.

*Notes:

-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-YTD. 1. -57.31%. 2. -63.21%. 3. -62.72%. 4. -53.45%. 5. -57.65%.

In 7-day periods through:

-August 9. 1. -77.0%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -66.7%. 5. -79.3%.

-August 2. 1. -79.1%. 2. -87.3%. 3. -89.7%. 4. -70.8%. 5. -80.5%.

-July 26. 1. -78.7%. 2. -87.2%. 3. -89.2%. 4. -70.6%. 5. -80.2%.

-July 19. 1. -80.6%. 2. -88.0%. 3. -90.0%. 4. -73.8%. 5. -81.1%.

-July 12. 1. -80.7%. 2. -87.7%. 3. -90.4%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -80.6%.

-July 5. 1. -79.3%. 2. -86.5%. 3. -88.2%. 4. -74.1%. 5. -79.8%.

-June 28. 1. -77.0%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -88.9%. 4. -69.1%. 5. -78.6%.

-June 21. 1. -76.5%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -89.8%. 4. -67.0%. 5. -78.9%.

-June 14. 1. -75.2%. 2. -56.32%. 3. -54.79%. 4. -48.16%. 5. -51.07%.

-June 7. 1. -81.1%. 2. -88.5%. 3. -92.0%. 4. -73.2%. 5. -82.6%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks

10 August 2020

The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in July for US hotel companies was 3,010 -1.7% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was -42.9%.

Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:

-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 132. Previous month: 138.

-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 112. Previous month: 125.

-‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 132, Asia Pacific 40, Europe 113, US 243. Previous month: World 137, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 123, US 243.

-The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) was at 91. Previous month: 99.

-The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 83. Previous month: 78.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

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