Travel Industry Data News, March 1-5.

FOXTROTS*

Travel Industry Data News, March 1-5.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

Selected market indicators, latest

5 March 2021

On the first Friday of every month, we show here a selection from an indicative 10 measures. Extracted from Market Monitor in the current issues of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. Percentage change.

[] Germany visitor arrivals YT-Dec -68.2%.

[] Lufthansa seat sales, group, YT-Dec -74.9%.

[] Singapore Airlines seat sales, group, Jan -97.7%.

[] Singapore visitor arrivals Jan -98.6%.

[] US hotel occupancy Jan +7.1%. STR.

[] US visitor arrivals, overseas YT-Dec -81.2%.

Travel business updates

5 March 2021

[] Finaria* reports on AirBnB (ABB):

-January bookings were 70% of pre-covid levels. Finaria does not say when ‘pre-covid’ was – usually it would be December 2019 or January 2020.

-In early March ABB’s market value was US$110.71bn; Expedia’s was US$20bn, Booking US$93bn, Trip Advisor US$5bn; Finaria rounded.

-In April 2020, ABB’s bookings were -72%. We do not know the relevance of this period.

-‘By June 2020’ domestic reservations (presumed US domestic) had doubled to reach 80%. We cannot calculate the value of this.

-Stays within 300km from home accounted for 56% of bookings, up from 31%. Period not known.

-By end January, bookings had recovered to 70% of pre-covid levels. Note as above.

*Notes:

-Finaria is an Italy-based financial trading company.

-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

[] PCW* reports on Latin America:

-Gross travel bookings, US$57.4bn +3% in 2019, ‘forecast’ to be US$21.7bn -62% in 2020. As this report was released this month, we assume that is PCW’s estimate.

-2021 forecast +88%, which we calculate would take it to US$40.8bn.

-Argentina ‘tourism’ will ‘rebound when travel with Brazil resumes’; we do not know the precise meaning of this. Brazil online share to reach 50% in 2023. Chile to return to 2018 level in 2023 when it reaches US$5bn. Colombia to recover to pre-covid levels in 2024, Mexico in 2023. Different measures by PCW, with no additional clarification.

-Airlines and hotels forecast to be 84% share in 2020. See note above on 2020.

-Forecasts travel bookings. Best outlook: 2021 $55.2bn, 2022 $66.2bn, 2023 $74.2bn, 2024 $83.1bn. Medium 41.0bn 51.0bn 57.0bn 62.0bn. Worst 31.0bn 46.5bn 51.2bn 56.3bn.

-Market share. Mexico 48%, Brazil 27%, Colombia 12%, Chile 10%, Argentina 2%. Presumed to be 2020.

-Online market share. Mexico 46%, Brazil 31%, Colombia 11%, Chile 10%, Argentina 2%. Presumed to be 2020.

*Notes:

-PCW = Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data.

-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

Travel business updates

4 March 2021

[] Lufthansa Group in 2020:

-Revenue US$16.6bn (at US$1 to €0.82), which we calculate is -62.6%.

-Operating loss -US$6.71bn; previous-year profit US$2.44bn.

-Capacity (available seat kilometres) 31% of 2019, which we calculate means -69%.

-Seats sold 36.4mn -74.9%.

-Seat load factor 63% -19.3pts.

-Capacity forecast this year 40-50% of 2019, which we calculate would be 43.9-54.9bn -50.0-60.0% against 2020.

-Capacity forecast 2025 to be 90% of 2019, which we calculate would be 98.8bn -10.0% against 2020.

[] Private Fly reported +40% in France domestic bookings in February. No data given to put this in context.

[] Research & Markets* (RM), a company, reports on India hotels:

-In FY2020*, ARR was US$75.50 (at US$1 to Rs72.3), against US$78.44 in FY2017, and is forecast to be US$87.04 by FY2025. It puts 2021-25 annual average growth rate at +2.49%.

-RM names one hotel category as ‘new-age hotels’. No definition is given but it puts the new-age share of rooms at 6%.

*Notes:

-RM does not define the Fiscal Year; India’s is usually Apr-Mar. FY 2020 would therefore be through March 2021 – in other words, we are still in FY 2020. We therefore cannot clarify the periods that RM is covering.

-We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.

-At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.

Travel plans – China, Germany, US

3 March 2021

ITBB* and Statistica* (together, ITBS) report on travel behaviour in China, Germany, US:

-*70% are ‘thinking about’ ‘private’ trips this year.

-*Planning at least one trip this year – 66% in China, 37% in Germany, 42% in the US.

-*Spend. 35% in China, 25% in Germany, 25% in the US ‘believe they will spend’ more on travelling over the next 12 months than the previous 12 months.

-*50% in China, ‘think they [will] travel more on an ongoing basis’ after the covid pandemic ‘has passed’, 17% in Germany, 25% in the US.

-56% in China of those not planning to travel this year feel uneasy about taking trips during the covid pandemic, 50% in Germany, 34% in the US.

-45% in China give travel restrictions as their reason for staying at home, 23% in Germany, 21% in the US.

-*42% in China ‘take [beach holidays] into consideration’ in 34% in Germany, 36% in the US.

-*City breaks are most important for 49% in China. But VFR (visiting family or friends) is first for 37% in Germany, 42% in the US.

-*86% of ‘private’ travellers in China plan to stay in hotels, 42% in Germany, 56% in the US.

-16% in China plan to stay overnight with family or friends, 33% in Germany, 33% in the US.

-*50% in China believe their travel behaviour will change ‘long-term’, 35% in Germany, 38% in the US. Reasons given were environmental considerations (47% in China), covid (83% in China, 83% in Germany, 64% in the US).

-Among those who said their travel behaviour will change ‘long-term’, 88% in China, 76% in Germany, 77% in the US agree that “I will take more vacation in my country” (sic).

-Among those planning trips this year 29% in China plan to go ‘abroad’, 61% in Germany, 15% in the US.

-51% in China plan business trips this year, 27% in Germany, 34% in the US.

-*63% in China, 65% in Germany, 66% in the US agree that “I will take fewer business trips”.

-*91% in China, 61% in Germany, 68% in the US agree that “I will take more nature/outdoor trips”.

*Notes:

-Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

We have good news for IATA

2 March 2021

A month can be a long time in the airline business. IATA* reports sizeable falls in the value of airline shares in January. It shows -6.0% against end-2020. Our TBA-Tracking shows similar, -6.7%.

  But there was a bump in February. IATA has not yet reported for that month, but we show +23.3% against January.

  For other findings, see table.

  Commentary:

-IATA shows its Index for World, 88.8, plus the three main regions. We calculate for World only – showing 138 in January, 170 in February. IATA’s 100 base is January 2014; our 100 base is earlier, December 2006. We plan to make the adjustment to the later date to match IATA.

-For end-January (over end-December) prices in the regions, there are differences between IATA growth and our growth, but not substantial.

-There are sizeable differences for the longer-term comparison. But IATA compares against ‘one-year’, which we assume is end-January 2020. Our comparison is with end-December-2019, as some stock prices in Asia Pacific started to show covid-related falls in January 2020.

  IATA’s comparison-period would theoretically show a lesser fall. Yet IATA shows -24% and we show -10%. Unfortunately, we have no explanation for this – except the general one that we presumably have different airlines in our measures.

*Notes: IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.

Airline share prices

	IATA			TBA
Item	Index	Growth,%		Growth,%
	Jan 29			Jan 29		Feb 26
World	88.8	-6.0	-29.5	-6.7	-32.3	23.3	-14.4
Asia Pacific	74.4	-4.1	-23.9	-1.6	-10.3	7.1	-3.4
Europe	77.3	-9.3	-27.1	-10.2	-44.3	18.9	-33.5
North America	110.0	-4.3	-31.2	-6.5	-46.0	27.8	-30.7
Notes:	NA	1month	1 year	1month	end-’19	1month	end-’19

Source: IATA (International Air Transport Association), TBA (Travel Business Analyst).

TBA Tracking: February travel stocks; the long climb-back starts?

1 March 2021

Commentary (category numbers below):

-We have added a new sector now tracked monthly – all (world) airlines, hotels, Others. See below.

-Also added is AirBnB to hotel sector; it was already in our travel-tech sector, and remains there also.

-AsPac airlines above their end-2019 prices? Yes, but misleading because includes big growth for Jet India, technically not an airline because it is not flying – although some indicators that it could relaunch. Without JI, prices against end-2019 were -22%.

-China is no longer the ‘star’ this year. Its travel shares grew +2% last month, compared with +20% for the rest of AsPac. But China is just ahead of end-2019 prices, compared with -9% for AsPac.

-US did well; no stock fell. Europe almost as good; only one stock (our ‘no-hoper’ Norwegian) fell.

-Performance for airlines in Europe – full-service or no-frills – was broadly similar. For example ICAG +34%, Easy +35%; Lufthansa and Ryan both +16%.

-Travel-tech looking good. 6/8 now above their end-2019, prices, +14% overall. The laggards are Amadeus (surprise) and Lastminute.

-Investors like cruisers, but in general, they still have much further to go to return to end-2019 prices – compared with other US Others.

-Air New Zealand flat, and airline the furthest (along with Air Asia) from post-covid recovery. But isn’t NZ a covid star? Go figure.

-In China, comfortably above their pre-covid prices are Beijing Hotels, Jinjiang Hotels, Spring Airlines.

Selected category-specifics (compared with previous month):

-Giant airlines, airline groups. China Southern +4%, Delta +26%, ICAG +34/38% (London/Madrid), Lufthansa +16%.

-No-frills-airlines. Air Asia +31%, Easyjet +35%, Norwegian -5%, Ryanair +16%, Southwest +32%, Spring China +4%, Wizz +22%.

-Giant hotel groups. Accor +24%, InterContinental +11%, Marriott +27%.

-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin -3%, Shangri-La +20%.

-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM +32%, Sands +30%, Wynn +32%.

-Planemakers. Airbus +15%, Boeing +9%, Embraer +39%.

-Big airports, airport groups. ADP +11%, Fraport +17%, Guangzhou -4%.

-Cruisers. Carnival +43%, RCC +43%, Star +85% (sic, but HK$0.28 to US$0.51).

-Travel-tech heavies. Amadeus +6%, Booking +20%, Expedia +30%, Trip +24%.

-No-hopers. Hertz flat, Jet India +70% (sic, on hopes of restart), Norwegian -5%.

-Big stockmarkets. Frankfurt +3%, Hong Kong +2%, London +1%, Tokyo +5%, US (average of our five +3%).

Numbers – Sectors:

-World (travel-related stocks). Compared with previous month: +17%. Compared with end-2019: -16%.

-World. Airlines +23%, Hotels +19%, Others +26%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -14%, Hotels -8%, Others -12%.

-Regions, all sectors. Compared with previous month: Asia Pacific +20%, Europe +20%, US +28%. Compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -9%, Europe -25%, US -1%.

-Asia Pacific, excluding China. Compared with previous month: Airlines +21%, Hotels +10%, Others +29%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines +3%, Hotels -13%, Others -19%.

-Europe. Compared with previous month: Airlines +19%, Hotels +24%, Others +18%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -34%, Hotels -11%, Others -29%.

-US. Compared with previous month: Airlines +30%, Hotels +24%, Others +30%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -13%, Hotels -1%, Others +11%.

-China +2%; compared with end-2019, +1%. China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) +7%; compared with end-2019, +5%.

-Rest-of world. Compared with previous month: +16%. Compared with end-2019: -46%.

-Travel-tech +31%. Compared with end-2019: +20%.

-Stockmarkets +2%. Compared with end-2019: +9%.

Numbers – Indices:

-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 206, Asia Pacific 52, Europe 171, US 395. Index previous month: World 172, Asia Pacific 46, Europe 149, US 320. Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.

-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 100. Index previous month 90. Index end-2019 105.

-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 127. Index previous month 135. Index end-2019 170.

  Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Our February issues include annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

TBA Tracking: February travel stocks; the long climb-back starts?

FOXTROTS*

TBA Tracking: February travel stocks; the long climb-back starts?

Commentary (category numbers below):

-We have added a new sector now tracked monthly – all (world) airlines, hotels, Others. See below.

-Also added is AirBnB to hotel sector; it was already in our travel-tech sector, and remains there also.

-AsPac airlines above their end-2019 prices? Yes, but misleading because includes big growth for Jet India, technically not an airline because it is not flying – although some indicators that it could relaunch. Without JI, prices against end-2019 were -22%.

-China is no longer the ‘star’ this year. Its travel shares grew +2% last month, compared with +20% for the rest of AsPac. But China is just ahead of end-2019 prices, compared with -9% for AsPac.

-US did well; no stock fell. Europe almost as good; only one stock (our ‘no-hoper’ Norwegian) fell.

-Performance for airlines in Europe – full-service or no-frills – was broadly similar. For example ICAG +34%, Easy +35%; Lufthansa and Ryan both +16%.

-Travel-tech looking good. 6/8 now above their end-2019, prices, +14% overall. The laggards are Amadeus (surprise) and Lastminute.

-Investors like cruisers, but in general, they still have much further to go to return to end-2019 prices – compared with other US Others.

-Air New Zealand flat, and airline the furthest (along with Air Asia) from post-covid recovery. But isn’t NZ a covid star? Go figure.

-In China, comfortably above their pre-covid prices are Beijing Hotels, Jinjiang Hotels, Spring Airlines.

Selected category-specifics (compared with previous month):

-Giant airlines, airline groups. China Southern +4%, Delta +26%, ICAG +34/38% (London/Madrid), Lufthansa +16%.

-No-frills-airlines. Air Asia +31%, Easyjet +35%, Norwegian -5%, Ryanair +16%, Southwest +32%, Spring China +4%, Wizz +22%.

-Giant hotel groups. Accor +24%, InterContinental +11%, Marriott +27%.

-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin -3%, Shangri-La +20%.

-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM +32%, Sands +30%, Wynn +32%.

-Planemakers. Airbus +15%, Boeing +9%, Embraer +39%.

-Big airports, airport groups. ADP +11%, Fraport +17%, Guangzhou -4%.

-Cruisers. Carnival +43%, RCC +43%, Star +85% (sic, but HK$0.28 to $0.51).

-Travel-tech heavies. Amadeus +6%, Booking +20%, Expedia +30%, Trip +24%.

-No-hopers. Hertz flat, Jet India +70% (sic, on hopes of restart), Norwegian -5%.

-Big stockmarkets. Frankfurt +3%, Hong Kong +2%, London +1%, Tokyo +5%, US (average of our five +3%).

Numbers – Sectors:

-World (travel-related stocks).

Compared with previous month: +17%.

Compared with end-2019: -16%.

-World. Airlines +23%, Hotels +19%, Others +26%.

Compared with end-2019: Airlines -14%, Hotels -8%, Others -12%.

-Regions, all sectors.

Compared with previous month: Asia Pacific +20%, Europe +20%, US +28%.

Compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -9%, Europe -25%, US -1%.

-Asia Pacific, excluding China.

Compared with previous month: Airlines +21%, Hotels +10%, Others +29%.

Compared with end-2019: Airlines +3%, Hotels -13%, Others -19%.

-Europe.

Compared with previous month: Airlines +19%, Hotels +24%, Others +18%.

Compared with end-2019: Airlines -34%, Hotels -11%, Others -29%.

-US.

Compared with previous month: Airlines +30%, Hotels +24%, Others +30%.

Compared with end-2019: Airlines -13%, Hotels -1%, Others +11%.

-China +2%; compared with end-2019, +1%.

China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) +7%; compared with end-2019, +5%.

-Rest-of world.

Compared with previous month: +16%.

Compared with end-2019: -46%.

-Travel-tech +31%.

Compared with end-2019: +20%.

-Stockmarkets +2%.

Compared with end-2019: +9%.

Numbers – Indices:

-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 206, Asia Pacific 52, Europe 171, US 395.

Index previous month: World 172, Asia Pacific 46, Europe 149, US 320.

Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.

-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 100.

Index previous month 90.

Index end-2019 105.

-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 127.

Index previous month 135.

Index end-2019 170.

Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Our February issues include annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, February 22-26.

FOXTROTS*

Travel Industry Data News, February 22-26.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

Selected market indicators, latest

26 February 2021

Every Friday, we show here a selection from an indicative 10 measures. Extracted from Market Monitor in the current issues of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. Percentage change.

[] China Southern Airlines seat sales Jan -46.9%.

[] Frankfurt airport passengers Jan -80.9%.

[] US travel agency US$ sales Jan -85.6%. ARC.

Two travel-techs report

26 February 2021

[] 2020 revenue for Spain-based Amadeus was US$2.4bn (€2bn) -61%.

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] The first public financial report for US-based AirBnB shows:

Q4.

-Revenue US$859mn -22%.

-Loss US$3.9bn.

-Gross booking value US$5.9bn -31%.

-‘Nights and Experiences’ booked 46.3mn -39%.

2020.

-Revenue US$3.4bn -30%.

-Loss US$4.6bn.

-Gross booking value US$23.9bn -37%.

-‘Nights and Experiences’ booked 193.2mn -41%.

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Hotel business updates

25 February 2021

[] STR* results reports on US hotels, weekly:

-14-20 February occupancy 48.1% (-23.8%), average room rate US$101.57 (-22.1%).

-7-13 February 45.1% (-29.0%) US$99.21 (-25.7%).

-31 January-6 February 40.9% (-30.5%) US$91.44 (-29.0%).

-24-30 January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%).

-17-23 January 40.0% (-30.6%) US$90.13 (-28.1%).

-10-16 January 40.1% (-31.8%) US$89.39 (-31.9%).

-3-9 January 37.0% (-28.3%) US$87.97 (-27.1%).

-27 December-2 January 40.6% (-17.2%) US$107.93 (-21.5%).

-20-26 December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%).

-13-19 December 36.8% (-26.4%) US$85.50 (-21.9%).

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business

Travel business updates

24 February 2021

[] Leonardo Hotels* (LH) has signed with IWG* to convert 2000sqm on three floors of its Amsterdam Leonardo hotel from rooms into private offices for rental.

  The target is to do similar conversions at 13 ‘other locations’ – dates and additional information not given. LH also adds it is also planning to expand ‘abroad’. We presume this means outside Ntherlands, where it has 13 hotels.

*Notes:

-Germany-based LH, owned by Israel-based Fattal Hotels, operates about 200 hotels in Europe.

-IWG = International Workplace Group, Switzerland-based, which operates as Regus, its name until 2016.

–We understand this conversion covers about 50 rooms. Details are not clear, but we understand LH manages these offices fror IWG.

-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

US travel agencies, weekly

23 February 2021

ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-52-week-average. 1. -72.60%. 2. -82.50%. 3. -85.60%. 4. -62.20%. 5. -74.20%.

 In 7-day periods through:

-February 21. 1. -64.1%. 2. -79.9%. 3. -84.7%. 4. -46.5%. 5. -67.9%.

-February 14. 1. -66.6%. 2. -81.0%. 3. -85.7%. 4. -51.0%. 5. -69.3%.

-February 7. 1. -66.9%. 2. -81.5%. 3. -86.1%. 4. -50.4%. 5. -70.1%.

-January 31. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.

-January 24. 1. -70.5%. 2. -83.8%. 3. -87.5%. 4. -56.1%. 5. -73.4%.

-January 17. 1. -71.7%. 2. -83.3%. 3. -88.0%. 4. -59.3%. 5. -72.2%.

-January 10. 1. -63.2%. 2. -77.0%. 3. -82.8%. 4. -51.1%. 5. -63.0%.

-January 3. 1. -72.6%. 2. -82.9%. 3. -88.7%. 4. -62.8%. 5. -72.5%.

-December 27. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.

-December 20. 1. -66.2%. 2. -80.2%. 3. -84.9%. 4. -51.3%. 5. -69.6%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, February 15-19.

FOXTROTS*

Travel Industry Data News, February 15-19.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

TBA Tracking: a selection of latest travel data, world

19 February 2021

Every Friday, we show here a selection from an indicative 10 measures. Extracted from Market Monitor in the current issues of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. Percentage change.

[] Air traffic (RPKs), YT-Dec: AsPac -61.9%, Europe -69.9%, North America -65.2%, world -65.9%. IATA.

[] Singapore visitor arrivals YT-Dec 2.74mn -85.7%.

[] Visitor arrivals, YT-Dec: AsPac -84.1%, Europe -70.4%, North America -67.0%, world -73.9%. WTO.

Travel business updates

19 February 2021

[] STR* reports on US hotels in January: occupancy 39.3% -28.3%, average room rate US$90.79 -27.8%.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

[] ARC* reports for US travel agencies for January: air tickets sold US$1.3bn  -86%; average US roundtrip ticket US$335, which we calculate is -30.0%; passenger trips 8.0mn -72% (domestic 5.5mn -69%, international 2.4mn -77%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$2.52mn -71%; EMD transactions 50.3k -66%.

-For January (compared with December 2020), a (ARC) reduced set of measures: air tickets sold +21%; passenger trips +23% (domestic +31%, international +8%).

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-Any rounding by ARC.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

US travel business updates

18 February 2021

[] STR* results reports on US hotels, weekly:

-7-13 February occupancy 45.1% (-29.0%), average room rate US$99.21 (-25.7%).

-31 January-6 February 40.9% (-30.5%) US$91.44 (-29.0%).

-24-30 January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%).

-17-23 January 40.0% (-30.6%) US$90.13 (-28.1%).

-10-16 January 40.1% (-31.8%) US$89.39 (-31.9%).

-3-9 January 37.0% (-28.3%) US$87.97 (-27.1%).

-27 December-2 January 40.6% (-17.2%) US$107.93 (-21.5%).

-20-26 December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%).

-13-19 December 36.8% (-26.4%) US$85.50 (-21.9%).

-6-12 December 37.8% (-37.4%) US$85.88 (-31.7%).

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business

[] PCW* reports that gross bookings for US OTAs fell -59% in 2020.

*Notes:

-PCW = Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] US travel agencies, weekly

[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-52-week-average. 1. -73.1%. 2. -82.9%. 3. -83.9%. 4. -63.0%. 5. -74.7%.

 In 7-day periods through:

-February 14. 1. -66.6%. 2. -81.0%. 3. -85.7%. 4. -51.0%. 5. -69.3%.

-February 7. 1. -66.9%. 2. -81.5%. 3. -86.1%. 4. -50.4%. 5. -70.1%.

-January 31. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.

-January 24. 1. -70.5%. 2. -83.8%. 3. -87.5%. 4. -56.1%. 5. -73.4%.

-January 17. 1. -71.7%. 2. -83.3%. 3. -88.0%. 4. -59.3%. 5. -72.2%.

-January 10. 1. -63.2%. 2. -77.0%. 3. -82.8%. 4. -51.1%. 5. -63.0%.

-January 3. 1. -72.6%. 2. -82.9%. 3. -88.7%. 4. -62.8%. 5. -72.5%.

-December 27. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.

-December 20. 1. -66.2%. 2. -80.2%. 3. -84.9%. 4. -51.3%. 5. -69.6%.

-December 13. 1. -68.3%. 2. -80.4%. 3. -84.7%. 4. -56.4%. 5. -69.9%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel business updates

16 February 2021

[] Cotri* reports there were 2mn outbound travellers from China in Q4 (biggest destination Macau).

*Notes:

-Fall not given. Our database shows Macau counted 1.73mn -73.2% arrivals from China in Q4 – an ‘arrival’ is not the same number as a ‘departure’. That represented 92.4% of arrivals in Macau, whose total fell -79.6% in Q4.

-Cotri = China Outbound Tourism Research Institute. A Germany-based research body as well as a teaching institute.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in January at 2.55mn -64.4%.

TBA Tracking: Market Monitor, February

15 February 2021

An extract from the Market Monitor in current issues W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst – which also includes monthly growth data for principal travel companies in the three regions.%age change unless noted otherwise. E=estimate, P=provisional, TBA=Travel Business Analyst.

[] World airline stocks index, on 100: 2020: Dec 146; Nov 117; Oct 117; Sep 122; Aug 132; Jul 112. TBA.

[] World air traffic, total RPKs: 2020: Nov -70.3%; Oct -70.6%; Sep -72.8%; Aug -75.3%. IATA.

[] World hotel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Dec 178; Nov 175; Oct +144; Sep 147; Aug 153; Jul 132. TBA.

[] World travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Dec 187; Nov 177; Oct 139; Sep 142; Aug 154; Jul 132. TBA.

[] World travel-tech stocks index, on 100: 2020: Dec 139; Nov 131; Oct 91; Sep 99; Aug 103. Net Value.

[] World visitor arrivals: 2020: Oct -83.4%; Sep -79.6%; Aug -76.7%; Jul -79.6%; Jun -91.2%. WTO.

[] AsPac air traffic, total RPKs: 2020: Nov -61.6%; Oct -61.6%; Mar -59.9%; Feb -41.3%; Jan +0.4%. IATA.

[] AsPac travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Dec 49; Nov 50; Oct 44; Sep 44; Aug 45. TBA.

[] AsPac visitor arrivals, estimate: 2020: Oct -97.2%; Sep -97.5%; Aug -95.6%; Jul -95.9%. TBA.

[] Europe airport passengers, total: 2020: Oct -75.6%; Sep -73.1%; Aug -68.9%; Jul -77.7%. ACI.

[] Europe air traffic, total RPKs: 2020: Nov -82.2%; Oct -77.6%; Mar -51.8%; Feb +0.7%; Jan +1.6%. IATA.

[] Europe travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Dec 163; Nov 154; Oct 114; Sep 122; Aug 132. TBA.

[] Europe visitor arrivals: 2020: Oct -76.1%; Sep -71.5%; Aug -66.8%; Jul -71.0%; Jun -88.1%. WTO.

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, February 1-12.

FOXTROTS*

Travel Industry Data News, February 1-12.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

Germany travel trends

12 February 2021

ITBB* and Statista* survey on Germany’s travel business includes:

-*In 2018 57% of German nationals (note, not other residents) aged 18-64 favoured beach holidays. Then VFR 38.7%, ‘long’ weekend trips 35.3%, all-inclusive resorts 34.5%, lakes/mountains 28.3%, sightseeing 30.6%, camping/caravanning 16.0%, shopping 17.9%, charter/package holiday 17.4%, cruise & ‘stay’ 15.7%.

-*In 2020, 21.0% 15.8% 14.8% 13.5% 12.9% 11.6% 7.1% 6.4% 6.3% 5.3%. Lakes/mountains grew from 6th to 5th, camping/caravanning from 9th to 7th, sightseeing fell from 5th to 6th, shopping from 7th to 8th. Not noted is that charter/package holiday fell from 8th to 9th.

-*In Summer 2020, Google searches for hiking tours grew +44.3%, cycle tours grew +47.7%.

-*Komoot a website for planning outdoor activities, recorded 8.5mn hits in July 2020 (+113%, our calculation on Statista data).

-Those who agree that ‘Sustainability is an important aspect for me when travelling’ have grown from 10.8% in 2018 to 17.8% in 2020.

-Those who agree that ‘I always look for the cheapest offer when travelling’ have grown from 28.5% in 2018 to 35.0% in 2020.

-*Over 2000-09 there were 38 new companies whose focus was on sustainable travel. Over 2010-19 175, which we calculate is +360.5%.

-*New companies for ‘custom’ travel were 336.

-Statista reports ‘corona’-related measures. ‘Corona’ is either the outer atmosphere of the sun or a beer, launched in Mexico but now owned by Europe’s AB InBev.

*Notes:

-Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Travel business updates

11 February 2021

[] STR* results reports on US hotels, weekly:

-31 January-6 February occupancy 40.9% (-30.5%), average room rate US$91.44 (-29.0%).

-24-30 January 40.4% (-29.6%) US$89.62 (-29.8%).

-17-23 January 40.0% (-30.6%) US$90.13 (-28.1%).

-10-16 January 40.1% (-31.8%) US$89.39 (-31.9%).

-3-9 January 37.0% (-28.3%) US$87.97 (-27.1%).

-27 December-2 January 40.6% (-17.2%) US$107.93 (-21.5%).

-20-26 December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%).

-13-19 December 36.8% (-26.4%) US$85.50 (-21.9%).

-6-12 December 37.8% (-37.4%) US$85.88 (-31.7%).

-29 November-5 December 37.4% (-37.9%) US$86.21 (-33.1%).

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business

[] WTTC* reports:

-*In 2020 174mn jobs were ‘impacted’ globally.

-*Over 2011-19, Southeast Asia travel GDP annual average growth rate was +6.7%. It notes this was the fastest compared its +3.7% all-GDP. It provides data for just one other region – Middle East +3% +0.3%.

-*For every 34 visitors in a destination, one new job is created. In Africa it is 11, Asia Pacific 13, Middle East 24.

-For every US$1 generated in direct travel GDP globally, US$2 is generated indirectly.

-For every direct job globally, two new jobs are created indirectly or induced – effectively creating three jobs.

*Notes:

-Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

[] STR* reports on hotel results in January:

-Berlin occupancy 12.1% (-81.3%), average room rate US$77 (€63.34 -25.3%).

-Sydney 26.6% (-64.7%) US$141 (A$191.20 -7.3%).

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel business updates

10 February 2021

[] The VVF holiday-package company reports for France’s February school holidays:

-Mountain bookings occupancy 46% -32pts. 

-Seaside bookings occupancy 31% -22pts.

[] PATA (Pacific Asia Travel Association, a Bangkok-based regional promotional body) reports:

-Arrivals in 2023 could reach 96% of the total in 2019 – under the best scenario. Under the medium scenario 74%, severe 49%.

-In the Pacific 102% 78% 52%.

-Asia ‘slight deficit’ (not specified), medium not specified, severe 50%.

-South Asia mild 14% in 2021 (not 2023, as others). Other scenarios not specified.

Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] US travel agencies, weekly

ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-52-week-average. 1. -70.2%. 2. -79.7%. 3. -82.3%. 4. -60.5%. 5. -71.8%.

 In 7-day periods through:

-February 7. 1. -66.9%. 2. -81.5%. 3. -86.1%. 4. -50.4%. 5. -70.1%.

-January 31. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.

-January 24. 1. -70.5%. 2. -83.8%. 3. -87.5%. 4. -56.1%. 5. -73.4%.

-January 17. 1. -71.7%. 2. -83.3%. 3. -88.0%. 4. -59.3%. 5. -72.2%.

-January 10. 1. -63.2%. 2. -77.0%. 3. -82.8%. 4. -51.1%. 5. -63.0%.

-January 3. 1. -72.6%. 2. -82.9%. 3. -88.7%. 4. -62.8%. 5. -72.5%.

-December 27. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.

-December 20. 1. -66.2%. 2. -80.2%. 3. -84.9%. 4. -51.3%. 5. -69.6%.

-December 13. 1. -68.3%. 2. -80.4%. 3. -84.7%. 4. -56.4%. 5. -69.9%.

-December 6. 1. -70.8%. 2. -81.4%. 3. -86.0%. 4. -60.2%. 5. -71.4%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index

9 February 2021

Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 135 in December. Index previous month 131. Index end-2019 157.

  Comments:

-AirBnB was listed, in the US, starting last December. No growth to calculate yet.

-Another recovery-month, although index is still below end-2019.

-All but one (Lastminute) of our eight stocks grew, with growth in double-digits for eDreams, Trip Advisor, Trivago.

-However, three are still below their baseline prices – Trip, Trip Advisor, Trivago.

-Encouraging for the sector is that all but two stocks – Lastminute, Trip – performed above their local stockmarkets.

-(We note comparison with end-2019. Some stocks had started to fall in January 2020, because news about covid started to leak out during that month.)

-In August, Booking became the first to recover above end-2019 prices, but it dropped down again. At year-end, three were above their end-2019 prices – Booking, Expedia, Trip (just).

*Notes: NVTT = Net-Value Travel-Tech. The NVTT Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US – one of which, Trip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for Trip, end-2016 for Trip Advisor, Trivago.

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-20

Company	Price,local currency	Growth┼,%	NVTT* index
	Dec 20	Nov 20	Oct 20	Dec 19	Dec 18	Dec 15	stock	market	Company	All
AirBnB	147	na	na	na	na	na	na	3.7	101	75
Amadeus	59.6	57.5	41.0	72.8	60.8	40.7	3.7	0.0	180	134
Booking╪	2227	2028	1623	2054	1722	1275	9.8	5.7	195	145
eDreams	4.16	3.74	2.22	4.27	2.38	1.90	11.1	0.0	252	187
Expedia	132	124	94.2	108	113	124	6.4	3.7	155	115
Lastminute	26.0	26.8	15.7	46.0	17.5	13.1	-3.0	2.2	174	129
Trip╪	33.7	33.6	28.8	33.5	27.1	46.8	0.4	3.7	72	54
Trip Advisor	28.8	26.1	19.1	30.4	53.6	NA	10.3	3.7	62	46
Trivago	2.42	2.19	1.35	2.62	5.63	na	10.5	3.7	21	15

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed: Booking from Priceline in 2018; Trip from cTrip in 2019. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks

8 February 2021

The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in January for US hotel companies was 4,199 -8.2% (over previous month). Our database shows their end-2019 Index was 5,270 +6.1% +29.5%.

  Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:

  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 168. Previous month 178; end-2019 195.

  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 138. Previous month: 146; end-2019 211.

  -‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 172, Asia Pacific 46, Europe 149, US 320. Previous month: World 187, Asia Pacific 49, Europe 163, US 348. End-2019 World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.

  -The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-TechIndex’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) was at 127. Previous month 131; end-2019 160.

  -The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 90. Previous month 95; end-2019 109.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-TechIndex’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

Selected market indicators, latest

5 February 2021

Every Friday, we show here a selection from an indicative 10 measures. Extracted from Market Monitor in the current issues of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. Percentage change.

[] Air traffic (RPKs), YT-Dec: AsPac -61.9%, Europe -69.9%, North America -65.2%, world -65.9%. IATA.

[] Singapore visitor arrivals YT-Dec -85.7%.

[] Spain visitor arrivals YT-Nov -78.9%.

[] Visitor arrivals, YT-Dec: AsPac -84.1%, Europe -70.4%, North America -67.0%, world -73.9%. WTO.

Travel business updates

4 February 2021

[] PCW* reports:

–Spain’s 2020 travel gross bookings were estimated to have been US$10.9bn (at US$1 to €0.82) -70%, with online bookings US$5.5bn -66%.

-Forecasts* for total market – 2021 US$22bn, 2022 US$27bn, 2023 US$29bn, 2024 US$35bn.

-Forecasts* for online market – 2021 US$11bn, 2022 US$20bn, 2023 US$21bn, 2024 US$22bn.

*Notes:

-PCW = Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data.

-Most are our Net Value estimates on PCW data.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] Travel Mole reports that Thailand’s government forecasts 5mn visitors this year. Its previous forecast was for 10mn.

[] IATA* reports:

For December:

-Worldwide RPKs -69.7%, ASKs -56.7%, load factor -24.6pt.

For all-2020:

-Worldwide RPKs -65.9%, ASKs -56.5%, load factor -17.8 pt.

-RPKs by region – Asia Pacific -61.9%, Europe -69.9%, North America -65.2%.

-International RPKs -75.6% – Asia Pacific -80.3%, Europe -73.7%, North America -75.4%.

-Domestic RPKs -48.8% – Australia -69.5%, Brazil -49.0%, China -30.8%, India -55.6%, Japan -53.6%, Russia -23.5%, US -59.6%.

Forecast 2021:

-Worldwide RPKs +50.4%.

*Notes:

-IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

US travel business updates

3 February 2021

[] US hotel updates.

STR* results reports, weekly:

-17-23 January occupancy 40.0% (-30.6%), average room rate US$90.13 (-28.1%).

-10-16 January 40.1% (-31.8%) US$89.39 (-31.9%).

-3-9 January 37.0% (-28.3%) US$87.97 (-27.1%).

-27 December-2 January 40.6% (-17.2%) US$107.93 (-21.5%).

-20-26 December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%).

-13-19 December 36.8% (-26.4%) US$85.50 (-21.9%).

-6-12 December 37.8% (-37.4%) US$85.88 (-31.7%).

-29 November-5 December 37.4% (-37.9%) US$86.21 (-33.1%).

-22-28 November 36.2% (-28.5%) US$92.49 (-17.8%).

-15-21 November 41.2% (-32.6%) US$88.54 (-29.0%).

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

[] HNN (Hotel News Now) reports on US hotel deals:

-Q2 2020 6 -83% single-asset trades at at least US$10mn.

-Q3 12, which we calculate is -70%; HNN reports -80%.

-Q4 32, which we calculate is -41%; HNN reports -75%.

-All-2020 79 -52%.

-All-2020 value US$5.3bn -70%; average price per key US$273,000 -25%.

[] US travel agencies, weekly

ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-52-week-average. 1. -68.9%. 2. -78.2%. 3. -80.6%. 4. -59.6%. 5. -70.4%.

 In 7-day periods through:

-January 31. 1. -68.1%. 2. -81.8%. 3. -85.8%. 4. -53.5%. 5. -70.7%.

-January 24. 1. -70.5%. 2. -83.8%. 3. -87.5%. 4. -56.1%. 5. -73.4%.

-January 17. 1. -71.7%. 2. -83.3%. 3. -88.0%. 4. -59.3%. 5. -72.2%.

-January 10. 1. -63.2%. 2. -77.0%. 3. -82.8%. 4. -51.1%. 5. -63.0%.

-January 3. 1. -72.6%. 2. -82.9%. 3. -88.7%. 4. -62.8%. 5. -72.5%.

-December 27. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.

-December 20. 1. -66.2%. 2. -80.2%. 3. -84.9%. 4. -51.3%. 5. -69.6%.

-December 13. 1. -68.3%. 2. -80.4%. 3. -84.7%. 4. -56.4%. 5. -69.9%.

-December 6. 1. -70.8%. 2. -81.4%. 3. -86.0%. 4. -60.2%. 5. -71.4%.

-November 29. 1. -70.5%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -85.2%. 4. -61.0%. 5. -72.1%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Travel stocks; 20-year review

2 February 2021

Our full report on travel stock prices over the periods since 2015, 2010, 2000 is included in our February W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report.

  We include excerpts here for the US, rest-of-world, travel-tech, and stockmarkets. Excerpts for Asia Pacific and Europe travel stocks were published here last week.

[] US.

-Total. In 2020, travel stocks fell -21%. Over 2015-20, their AAGR was +0.3%; 2010-20 +8%. *Not 2000-20, as most other categories; our full records had not started then.

-Airlines. -32%; -8%; +10%.

-Hotels. -9%; +6%; +7%.

-Others. -27%; +2%; +5%.

[] Rest-of-world.

A new section for us, with comparison possible only against end-2019. In 2020, travel stocks fell -54%.

[] Travel-tech.

-In 2020, travel-tech stocks fell -6%.

-Over 2015-20*, their AAGR (annual average growth rate) was +8%, best of all our sectors. *Not 2010-20 or 2000-20, as most other categories; our full records had not started then.

[] Stockmarkets.

-All. In 2020, world stockmarket indices fell grew +3%. Over 2015-20, their AAGR was +5%; 2010-20 +5%.

-Asia Pacific. +8%; +6%; +4%.

-Europe. -12%; -2%; +6%.

-US. +12%; +11%; +5%.

TBA Tracking: January travel stocks; down we go again

1 February 2021

Commentary (category numbers below):

-Not a good start to 2021. Down -3%, and -24% over end-2019.

-Above their end-2019 price (excluding various special reasons), only 5 of our 34 travel stocks in AsPac (3 in China), 1 of 23 in Europe, 4 of 27 in the US, 0 of 4 outside those three regions.

-Most airlines fell. In our five separate regions, only 5 of the 37 we track grew – none in Europe.

-China’s recovery has stalled. Half of our listed 10 fell, and still 6 below their end-2019 price.

-In the US, unlike other regions, hotels performed worse than airlines. Choice, however, almost covid recovered; just -3% on end-2019.

-Also, not good for travel-tech – 6 of our 9 fell. There has been see-sawing, but Expedia and Travel Advisor are above their end-2019 prices.

-In the US, semi-merger (revenue-sharing) talks between American and Jet Blue probably helped American’s +9% and JB’s (only) -1%.

-No-hope airlines. Expectations of positive changes boosted prices of Jet India and Norwegian end-2020, but a return to reality has hit, and down they go again.

-On the last day of the month, China-based HNAG* was in the news concerning possible fraud of around US$10bn, and other related turmoil. But its stock in China grew +1% over the month, in Hong Kong +6%. *HNA was originally the official (mis-)acronym for Hainan Airlines; now a no-meaning corporate name for a Hainan-based conglomerate. We use ‘HNAG’ when covering the group.

-In Europe, ICAG hit harder than similar groups Air France-KLM, Lufthansa – -11%, -5%, -2%.

-Fall at no-frills Wizz -4% was region’s smallest fall. And Wizz is the only airline above its end-2019 price.

-Travel group TUI worst performer in Europe (except no-hoper Norwegian), -24%.

-AirBnB added to our Travel-Tech section (we will probably also include in Hotels at a later date); it had a good first-clear-month start, +25%.

Selected category-specifics:

-Giant airlines, airline groups. China Southern -2%, Delta -6%, ICAG -11/10% (London/Madrid), Lufthansa -2%.

-No-frills-airlines. Air Asia -21%, Easyjet -12%, Norwegian -33%, Ryanair -12%, Southwest -6%, Spring China +6%, Wizz -4%.

-Giant hotel groups. Accor -6%, InterContinental -4%, Marriott -12%.

-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin +3%, Shangri-La -4%.

-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM -9%, Sands -19%, Wynn -12%.

-Planemakers. Airbus -7%, Boeing -9%, Embraer -1%.

-Big airports, airport groups. ADP -10%, Fraport -8%, Guangzhou -2%.

-Cruisers. Carnival -14%, RCC -13%, Star flat.

-Travel-tech heavies. Amadeus -9%, Booking -13%, Expedia -6%, Trip -6%.

-No-hopers. Hertz flat, Jet India -35%, Norwegian -33%.

-Big stockmarkets. Frankfurt -2%, Hong Kong +4%, London -1%, Tokyo +1%, US (average of our five -1%).

Numbers – Sectors:

-World (travel-related stocks). Compared with previous month: -3%. Compared with end-2019: -24%.

-Regions, all sectors. Compared with previous month: Asia Pacific -3%, Europe -10%, US -5%. Compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -25%, Europe -37%, US -26%.

-Asia Pacific. Compared with previous month: Airlines -9%, Hotels -0.2%, Others -0.3%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -19%, Hotels -20%, Others -36%.

-Europe. Compared with previous month: Airlines -10%, Hotels -6%, Others -13%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -44%, Hotels -28%, Others -40%.

-US. Compared with previous month: Airlines -1%, Hotels -10%, Others -4%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -33%, Hotels -20%, Others -19%.

-China +0.4%; compared with end-2019, +22%. China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) -2%; compared with end-2019, +6%.

-Rest-of world. Compared with previous month: +4%. Compared with end-2019: -54%.

-Travel-tech -2%. Compared with end-2019: -11%.

-Stockmarkets -0.2%. Compared with end-2019: +7%.

Numbers – Indices:

-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 172, Asia Pacific 46, Europe 149, US 320. Index previous month: World 187, Asia Pacific 49, Europe 163, US 348. Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.

-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 90. Index previous month 95. Index end-2019 105.

-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 127. Index previous month 139. Index end-2019 170.

  Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Our February issues include annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel stocks; 20-year review

FOXTROTS*

Travel stocks; 20-year review

Our full report on travel stock prices over the periods since 2015, 2010, 2000 is included in our February W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report.

We include excerpts here.

[] Asia Pacific.

-Total. In covid-struck-2020, travel stocks fell -13%. Over 2015-20, their annual average growth rate (AAGR) was -7%; 2010-20 -6%; 2000-20 -1%.

-Airlines. -5%; -5%; -5%; -2%.

-Hotels. -20%; -3%; -7%; +2%.

-Others. -34%; -28%; -14%; NA.

[] Europe.

-Total. In 2020, travel stocks fell -28%. Over 2015-20, their AAGR was -6%; 2010-20 +1%. 2000-20 NA.

-Airlines. -21%; -10%; -2%; NA.

-Hotels. -23%; -3%; +3%; NA.

-Others. -36%; -2%; +4%; NA.

[] US.

-Total. In 2020, travel stocks fell -21%. Over 2015-20, their AAGR was +0.3%; 2010-20 +8%. *Not 2000-20, as most other categories; our full records had not started then.

-Airlines. -32%; -8%; +10%.

-Hotels. -9%; +6%; +7%.

-Others. -27%; +2%; +5%.

[] Rest-of-world.

A new section for us, with comparison possible only against end-2019. In 2020, travel stocks fell -54%.

[] Travel-tech.

-In 2020, travel-tech stocks fell -6%.

-Over 2015-20*, their AAGR was +8%, best of all our sectors. *Not 2010-20 or 2000-20, as most other categories; our full records had not started then.

[] Stockmarkets.

-All. In 2020, world stockmarket indices fell grew +3%. Over 2015-20, their AAGR was +5%; 2010-20 +5%.

-Asia Pacific. +8%; +6%; +4%.

-Europe. -12%; -2%; +6%.

-US. +12%; +11%; +5%.

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

TBA Tracking: January travel stocks; down we go again

FOXTROTS*

TBA Tracking: January travel stocks; down we go again

Commentary (category numbers below):

-Not a good start to 2021. Down -3%, and -24% over end-2019.

-Above their end-2019 price (excluding various special reasons), only 5 of our 34 travel stocks in AsPac (3 in China), 1 of 23 in Europe, 4 of 27 in the US, 0 of 4 outside those three regions.

-Most airlines fell. In our five separate regions, only 5 of the 37 we track grew – none in Europe.

-China’s recovery has stalled. Half of our listed 10 fell, and still 6 below their end-2019 price.

-In the US, unlike other regions, hotels performed worse than airlines. Choice, however, almost covid recovered; just -3% on end-2019.

-Also, not good for travel-tech – 6 of our 9 fell. There has been see-sawing, but Expedia and Travel Advisor are above their end-2019 prices.

-In the US, semi-merger (revenue-sharing) talks between American and Jet Blue probably helped American’s +9% and JB’s (only) -1%.

-No-hope airlines. Expectations of positive changes boosted prices of Jet India and Norwegian end-2020, but a return to reality has hit, and down they go again.

-On the last day of the month, China-based HNAG* was in the news concerning possible fraud of around US$10bn, and other related turmoil. But its stock in China grew +1% over the month, in Hong Kong +6%. *HNA was originally the official (mis-)acronym for Hainan Airlines; now a no-meaning corporate name for a Hainan-based conglomerate. We use ‘HNAG’ when covering the group.

-In Europe, ICAG hit harder than similar groups Air France-KLM, Lufthansa – -11%, -5%, -2%.

-Fall at no-frills Wizz -4% was region’s smallest fall. And Wizz is the only airline above its end-2019 price.

-Travel group TUI worst performer in Europe (except no-hoper Norwegian), -24%.

-AirBnB added to our Travel-Tech section (we will probably also include in Hotels at a later date); it had a good first-clear-month start, +25%.

Selected category-specifics:

-Giant airlines, airline groups. China Southern -2%, Delta -6%, ICAG -11/10% (London/Madrid), Lufthansa -2%.

-No-frills-airlines. Air Asia -21%, Easyjet -12%, Norwegian -33%, Ryanair -12%, Southwest -6%, Spring China +6%, Wizz -4%.

-Giant hotel groups. Accor -6%, InterContinental -4%, Marriott -12%.

-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin +3%, Shangri-La -4%.

-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM -9%, Sands -19%, Wynn -12%.

-Planemakers. Airbus -7%, Boeing -9%, Embraer -1%.

-Big airports, airport groups. ADP -10%, Fraport -8%, Guangzhou -2%.

-Cruisers. Carnival -14%, RCC -13%, Star flat.

-Travel-tech heavies. Amadeus -9%, Booking -13%, Expedia -6%, Trip -6%.

-No-hopers. Hertz flat, Jet India -35%, Norwegian -33%.

-Big stockmarkets. Frankfurt -2%, Hong Kong +4%, London -1%, Tokyo +1%, US (average of our five -1%).

Numbers – Sectors:

-World (travel-related stocks).

Compared with previous month: -3%.

Compared with end-2019: -24%.

-Regions, all sectors.

Compared with previous month: Asia Pacific -3%, Europe -10%, US -5%.

Compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -25%, Europe -37%, US -26%.

-Asia Pacific.

Compared with previous month: Airlines -9%, Hotels -0.2%, Others -0.3%.

Compared with end-2019: Airlines -19%, Hotels -20%, Others -36%.

-Europe.

Compared with previous month: Airlines -10%, Hotels -6%, Others -13%.

Compared with end-2019: Airlines -44%, Hotels -28%, Others -40%.

-US.

Compared with previous month: Airlines -1%, Hotels -10%, Others -4%.

Compared with end-2019: Airlines -33%, Hotels -20%, Others -19%.

-China +0.4%; compared with end-2019, +22%.

China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) -2%; compared with end-2019, +6%.

-Rest-of world.

Compared with previous month: +4%.

Compared with end-2019: -54%.

-Travel-tech -2%.

Compared with end-2019: -11%.

-Stockmarkets -0.2%.

Compared with end-2019: +7%.

Numbers – Indices:

-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 172, Asia Pacific 46, Europe 149, US 320.

Index previous month: World 187, Asia Pacific 49, Europe 163, US 348.

Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.

-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 90.

Index previous month 95.

Index end-2019 105.

-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 127.

Index previous month 139.

Index end-2019 170.

Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Our February issues include annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, January 25-29.

FOXTROTS*

Travel Industry Data News, January 25-29.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

Travel stocks; 10-year review

29 January 2021

Our full report on travel stock prices over the periods since 2015, 2010, 2000 is included in our February W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report.

  We include excerpts here for Asia Pacific and Europe travel stocks. Excerpts of other regions, other categories, stockmarkets – and the January report – are due here next week.

[] Sectors, Asia Pacific.

-Total. In covid-struck-2020, travel stocks fell -13%. Over 2015-20, their annual average growth rate (AAGR) was -7%; 2010-20 -6%; 2000-20 -1%.

-Airlines. -5%; -5%; -5%; -2%.

-Hotels. -20%; -3%; -7%; +2%.

-Others. -34%; -28%; -14%; NA.

[] Sectors, Europe.

-Total. In 2020, travel stocks fell -28%. Over 2015-20, their AAGR was -6%; 2010-20 +1%. 2000-20 NA.

-Airlines. -21%; -10%; -2%; NA.

-Hotels. -23%; -3%; +3%; NA.

-Others. -36%; -2%; +4%; NA.

2020 visitor arrivals

28 January 2021

WTO* reports:

-Visitor arrivals fell -1bn -74% in 2020. We presume this is WTO’s initial estimate; it does not clarify.

-The fall compares with -4% ‘during the 2009 global economic crisis’. The world economic crisis started September 2008 and is generally defined as 2008/9. Our database shows +2% in 2008, -4% 2009, +7% 2010.

-WTO estimates visitor spend was -US$1.3tn – 11x the fall in 2009.

-It puts 100-120mn direct travel jobs at risk. Period not given.

-According to a WTO survey:

  -45% of respondents forecast better prospects for this year compared with 2020, 25% similar, 30% worse.

  -50% forecast a ‘rebound’ in 2022; in October 2020 the share was 21%. The other 50% forecast a ‘potential rebound’ this year; in October 2020 the share was 79%. WTO does not define if these ‘rebounds’ relate to 2019 or 2020 arrivals. We believe it almost certain that the Dead Cat Bounce* will result in arrivals growth this year against 2020.

  -43% forecast a return to 2019 levels in 2023, 41% in 2024 or later. Forecasts of the 16% balance not given.

  WTO’s commentary has been challenged by Cotri* (edited for reasons of space):

-‘…to show the real extent of covid’s impact, it would make more sense to compare Mar-Dec 20, because arrivals in Jan/Feb in most parts of the world were not yet affected by covid. Apart from the fall in arrivals in China in February.

-‘The ‘worst year on record’? What about 1942-44? We should keep things in perspective.’

*Notes:

-Cotri = China Outbound Tourism Research Institute. A Germany-based research body as well as a teaching institute.

-Dead Cat Bounce. In general, a year after a fall for a specific reason, there would be a rebound. The financial world has an unkindly term for that – a Dead Cat Bounce. Even a dead cat bounces after a fall.

-WTO – World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO – is a Spain-based UN-designated lobbying body for the travel business.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

Selected market indicators, latest

27 January 2021

An extract from the Market Monitor in current issues W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Percentage change.

[] Air traffic (RPKs), YT-Nov: AsPac -61.7%, Europe -69.3%, North America -65.0%, world -65.6%. IATA.

[] China Southern Airlines seat sales YT-Dec 96.9mn -36.1%.

[] Frankfurt airport passengers YT-Dec 18.8mn -73.4%

[] Lufthansa seat sales, group, YT-Sep 32.2mn -71%.

[] Ryanair seat sales YT-Dec 52.0mn -65.9%.

[] Singapore Airlines seat sales, group, YT-Dec 7.01mn -81.6%.

[] Singapore visitor arrivals YT-Nov 2.72mn -84.4%.

[] US hotel occupancy YT-Dec 44.0% -33.3%. STR.

[] US travel agency sales YT-Dec US$23.0bn -76.4%. ARC.

[] Visitor arrivals, YT-Oct: AsPac -82.3%, Europe -68.5%, North America -67.6%, world -71.9%. WTO.

TBA Tracking: Travel Traffic, Asia Pacific, Europe, US, world

26 January 2021

Our ‘TBA Travel Industry Indices’ from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows the following monthly traffic growths*.

World

2020: Nov -79.7%E; Oct -79.6%P; Sep -79.7%; Aug -77.6%.

Asia Pacific

2020: Nov -92.4%E; Oct -92.5%P; Sep -93.0%; Aug -91.4%.

Europe

2020: Nov -81.8%E; Oct -79.8%P; Sep -78.4%; Aug -71.1%.

US

2020: Nov -71.2%E; Oct -72.4%P; Sep -73.7%; Aug -75.3%.

*Notes:

-Aggregates of airline seats sold, airline RPKs, airport passengers, hotel occupancies, resident departures, travel agency sales, visitor arrivals.

-Percentage change over previous year; E=estimate, P=provisional.

Travel business updates

25 January 2021

US travel agencies, weekly

[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-52-week-average. 1. -67.66%. 2. -76.63%. 3. -78.98%. 4. -58.66%. 5. -69.01%.

 In 7-day periods through:

-January 24. 1. -70.5%. 2. -83.8%. 3. -87.5%. 4. -56.1%. 5. -73.4%.

-January 17. 1. -71.7%. 2. -83.3%. 3. -88.0%. 4. -59.3%. 5. -72.2%.

-January 10. 1. -63.2%. 2. -77.0%. 3. -82.8%. 4. -51.1%. 5. -63.0%.

-January 3. 1. -72.6%. 2. -82.9%. 3. -88.7%. 4. -62.8%. 5. -72.5%.

-December 27. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.

-December 20. 1. -66.2%. 2. -80.2%. 3. -84.9%. 4. -51.3%. 5. -69.6%.

-December 13. 1. -68.3%. 2. -80.4%. 3. -84.7%. 4. -56.4%. 5. -69.9%.

-December 6. 1. -70.8%. 2. -81.4%. 3. -86.0%. 4. -60.2%. 5. -71.4%.

-November 29. 1. -70.5%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -85.2%. 4. -61.0%. 5. -72.1%.

-November 22. 1. -71.2%. 2. -81.7%. 3. -86.0%. 4. -60.4%. 5. -72.1%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] STR* reports on hotel results in 2020:

–Asia Pacific occupancy 44.5% (-35.6%), average room rate US$74.99 (-22.2%).

–Central/South America 30.0% (-48.7%), US$78.75 (-10.1%).

–Europe 33.1% (-54.2%), US$114 (€93.34 -18.2%).

–Middle East 45.9% (-30.3%), US$117.23 (-17.3%).

–UK 40.5% (-47.7%), US$99 (£72.08 -23.9%).

–US 44.0% (-33.3%), US$103.25 (-21.3%). Unsold roomnights 1bn; in 2009, during the 2008/9 financial fall, there were 786mn.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

[] Vista Jet reports*:

-Subscriber growth +29% – Europe 43% share of new members, North America 25%, Asia 18%, Middle East 10%.

-Bookings growth +15%.

-Flights – Europe 46% share, North America 26%. China 28% share of Asia. UAE 34% share of Middle East.

*Notes: VJ gives no data that puts these percentage growths into perspective.

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, January 13-22.

FOXTROTS*

Travel Industry Data News, January 13-22.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

Travel business updates

22 January 2021

[] 2020 visitor arrivals in Macau 5.90mn -85.0%.

[] STR* results reports on US hotels, weekly:

-10-16 January occupancy 40.1% (-31.8%), average room rate US$89.39 (-31.9%)

-3-9 January 37.0% (-28.3%) US$87.97 (-27.1%).

-27 December-2 January 40.6% (-17.2%) US$107.93 (-21.5%).

-20-26 December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%).

-13-19 December 36.8% (-26.4%) US$85.50 (-21.9%).

-6-12 December 37.8% (-37.4%) US$85.88 (-31.7%).

-29 November-5 December 37.4% (-37.9%) US$86.21 (-33.1%).

-22-28 November 36.2% (-28.5%) US$92.49 (-17.8%).

-15-21 November 41.2% (-32.6%) US$88.54 (-29.0%).

-8-14 November 43.2% (-32.7%) US$90.58 (-28.6%).

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel business updates

21 January 2021

[] Sales at CDA* for its Q1, Oct-Dec 20, were US$32.8mn (at US$1 to €0.82) -81.3%. Ski was US$2.21mn -97.0%, leisure resorts US$30.1mn -69.3%.

*Notes:

–CDA = France-based Compagnie des Alpes. Despite that name, it has not only 10 ski resorts (including Val d’Isere), but also 13 leisure resorts in France (including Futuroscope, Parc Asterix). And international – in Austria (one), Belgium (four), Canada (one), Netherlands (one), Switzerland (one; Chaplin’s World). Plus management and/or technical contracts in China, Georgia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Morocco, Russia, Turkey), and shares in four other ski resorts in France (including Chamonix).

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] Global Data reports that Norwegian Air* ending its longhaul routes ‘emphasises flaws in its business model’.

  Travel Business Analyst first criticised NA’s businessplan in 2015, when we also suggested it should change its name. We suggested Union Air, Air Europe.

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Asia Pacific arrival forecasts

21 January 2021

PATA* forecasts:

-2020 arrivals 121.84mn – assumed to be an estimate but not shown as that.

-Highest forecast for this year 152mn, which we calculate would be +24.9% on PATA’s estimate for 2020. For 2022 406mn +167.0%; 2023 677mn +66.7% – still below the 2019 count.

-(PATA selected) comments on regions:

   -Asia Pacific in 2023 arrivals -4% on 2019 on the best outlook.

   -Americas no growth until 2022. This year, arrivals to fall by 3.59mn to as much as almost 23.8mn.

*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Germany’s travel results

20 January 2021

Statista* reports some 2020 travel data for ITBB*:

-*The ‘travel market is set to recover’ from the covid-provoked fall ‘by 2023’. Statista does not further define what is the ‘travel market’, or ‘is set to’ (will? might?), or ‘by 2023’ (2022? end-2023?).

-*2021 ‘travel revenue’ to grow +50%. No further definition.

-2025 ‘revenue’ +23% against 2019.

-*‘Projects’ -55% ‘turnover loss’ for ‘tourism industry’ for 2020. Is ‘tourism industry’/’turnover loss’ the same as ‘travel market’/’revenue’? As 2020 has ended, we presume this projection is an estimate.

-Sources WTO* to report Jan-Oct 20 visitor arrivals -72%.

-*Sources WTO to report April hotel ‘visitors’ in Germany -91%. We are not aware of any data from WTO on hotels.

-*Sources Germany’s DRV travel association to report 2020 turnover fall of -US$34bn (at US$1 to €0.82) -80%. No further definition of what is included in ‘turnover’.

-*Sources ZDF-Polit Barometer to report that covid ‘affected’ travel plans of 50% of travellers from Germany. No further clarification.

-*Sources Allianz to report that before covid, 22% of German nationals (thus excluding other residents in Germany) favoured longhaul destinations; 6% after covid began. Those preferring staycations* grew from 30% to 61%.

-*In 2019 Germany’s domestic travel accounted for US$316bn, ‘85% of Germany’s domestic [travel] revenues, whereas for 2020 the share is projected to be 91%’ (US$211bn). We cannot understand how $316bn can be 85% of itself.

-*‘Turnover’ in Germany’s international tourism market is forecast to shrink by -60%, from US$55bn to US$20bn. We believe these figures cover 2020 over 2019; Statista does not clarify.

-Germany’s domestic travel ‘turnover’ is forecast to return to the level in 2019 in 2022.

*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Travel business updates

19 January 2021

[] WTTC* forecasts:

-Travel business jobs recovered worldwide in 2021 – 84mn worst outlook (25% below 2019; 82mn fewer jobs), 100mn medium (comparison with 2019 not given), 111mn best (17% 54mn).

-WTTC reports that ‘during the height of the pandemic’, it forecast 174mn jobs were at risk in 2020. Our database shows that in June it forecast 198mn (but also 197mn) jobs could be lost in 2020; and earlier it had forecast 100mn.

-Under its best outlook, the travel business’s contribution to global GDP would fall -17% compared with 2019, to US$7.4tn. Under a ‘more conservative’ outlook (not clarified if ‘medium’ or ‘worst’), the travel business’s contribution would drop -27%, to US$6.5tn.

*Notes: Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

 [] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-52-week-average. 1. -66.19%. 2. -74.88%. 3. -77.18%. 4. -57.51%. 5. -67.45%.

 In 7-day periods through:

-January 17. 1. -71.7%. 2. -83.3%. 3. -88.0%. 4. -59.3%. 5. -72.2%.

-January 10. 1. -63.2%. 2. -77.0%. 3. -82.8%. 4. -51.1%. 5. -63.0%.

-January 3. 1. -72.6%. 2. -82.9%. 3. -88.7%. 4. -62.8%. 5. -72.5%.

-December 27. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.

-December 20. 1. -66.2%. 2. -80.2%. 3. -84.9%. 4. -51.3%. 5. -69.6%.

-December 13. 1. -68.3%. 2. -80.4%. 3. -84.7%. 4. -56.4%. 5. -69.9%.

-December 6. 1. -70.8%. 2. -81.4%. 3. -86.0%. 4. -60.2%. 5. -71.4%.

-November 29. 1. -70.5%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -85.2%. 4. -61.0%. 5. -72.1%.

-November 22. 1. -71.2%. 2. -81.7%. 3. -86.0%. 4. -60.4%. 5. -72.1%.

-November 15. 1. -67.4%. 2. -78.9%. 3. -70.12%. 4. -53.59%. 5. -61.79%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] STR* reports on US hotels for all-2020: occupancy 36.7% -32.3%, average room rate US$91.96 -27.6%.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel business updates

18 January 2021

[] MKG* (a France-based hotel consultancy; name origin unknown) reports hotel results in France and Europe in 2020. A selection:

-France occupancy 32.4% -36.2pts, average room rate US$94.5 (at US$1 to €0.82) -18.1%.

-Paris 22.4% -57.6pts, US$157.2 -20.8%.

-Cote d’Azur 33% -32.8pts, US$111.8 -19.3%.

-MKG also reports hotel revenue in Europe. Our estimates on MKG data show hotels in France lost -62% of their revenue (Europe’s best performance). Then Germany -64%, Poland -69%, Luxembourg -70%, Switzerland -70%, UK -72%, Austria -73%, Lithuania -73%, Belgium -74%, Netherlands -75%, Spain -76%, Portugal -77%, Italy -78%, Greece -79%, Hungary -81%, Czech R -84%.

*Notes:

-MKG also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

-Any rounding by MKG.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] GD* reports new funding at US-based Hipcamp, which books accommodation such as camping, of US$57mn brings its value to US$300mn – double its 2019 value.

  GD also adds other pro US–domestic information* to support outlook for Hipcamp:

-11% more consumers said they would travel less internationally (39%) than would travel less domestically (28%) post covid.

-79% are ‘quite’ or ‘extremely’ concerned about covid.

*Notes:

-GD = Global Data, a US-based data and analytics company.

–We believe such covid-related sentiments become obsolete almost as soon as they are released – as events overtake sentiments. Such as, recently, the approval of a vaccine, then another, then inoculation plans, inoculation progress, and so on.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

US hotel updates

17 January 2021

STR* results reports, weekly:

-3-9 January occupancy 37.0% (-28.3%), average room rate US$87.97 (-27.1%).

-27 December-2 January 40.6% (-17.2%) US$107.93 (-21.5%).

-20-26 December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%).

-13-19 December 36.8% (-26.4%) US$85.50 (-21.9%).

-6-12 December 37.8% (-37.4%) US$85.88 (-31.7%).

-29 November-5 December 37.4% (-37.9%) US$86.21 (-33.1%).

-22-28 November 36.2% (-28.5%) US$92.49 (-17.8%).

-15-21 November 41.2% (-32.6%) US$88.54 (-29.0%).

-8-14 November 43.2% (-32.7%) US$90.58 (-28.6%).

-1-7 November 44.2% (-35.9%) US$91.40 (-31.1%).

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index

16 January 2021

Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 131 in November. Index previous month 91. Index end-2019 157.

  Comments:

-A strong recovery, although index is still below end-2019.

-Last month, we noted that we have been waiting for clear signs that travel-tech is performing better than all-travel. But we added that it needed rose-coloured glasses to see that. This month, those glasses worked; perhaps next month we can take them off and still see good times.

-Not only did all of our eight stocks grow, but growth was fast – the slowest was +17%. Even perpetual-loser Trivago grew – +62%!

-However, three are still below their baseline prices – Trip, Trip Advisor, Trivago.

-Encouraging for the sector is that all eight stocks performed well above their local stockmarkets. For most, their growth was more than double their stockmarkets’!

-(We now note comparison with end-2019. Some stocks had started to fall in January 2020, because news about covid started to leak out during that month.)

-In August, Booking became the first to recover above end-2019 prices, but it dropped down again. This month, two had climbed above their end-2019 prices – Expedia, and (just) Trip.

-AirBnB was listed starting last month, in the US. Later we will include the company in this travel-tech section. (And perhaps also in Hotels; our decision not yet made.)

*Notes: NVTT = Net-Value Travel-Tech. The NVTT Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US – one of which, Trip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for Trip, end-2016 for Trip Advisor, Trivago.

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-20

Company	Price,local currency	Growth┼,%	NVTT* index
	Nov 20	Oct 20	Sep 20	Dec 19	Dec 18	Dec 15	stock	market	Company	All
Amadeus	57.5	41.0	47.6	72.8	60.8	40.7	40.2	25.2	174	132
Booking╪	2028	1623	1711	2054	1722	1275	25.0	11.8	178	136
eDreams	3.74	2.22	2.31	4.27	2.38	1.90	68.5	25.2	227	173
Expedia	124.5	94.2	91.7	108	113	124	32.2	12.7	146	111
Lastminute	26.8	15.7	19.1	46.0	17.5	13.1	71.2	9.3	179	137
Trip╪	33.6	28.8	31.1	33.5	27.1	46.8	16.8	12.7	72	55
Trip Advisor	26.1	19.1	19.4	30.4	53.6	NA	36.6	12.7	56	43
Trivago	2.19	1.35	1.55	2.62	5.63	na	62.2	12.7	19	14

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed: Booking from Priceline in 2018; Trip from cTrip in 2019. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

Travel business updates

15 January 2021

[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in December at 2.19mn -68.8%, all-2020 25.2mn -70.0%.

  Our selection of some all-2020 counts: Argentina 9.96mn -77.1%, Armenia 0.83mn -74.1%, Brazil 9.09mn -52.3%, Italy 1.97mn -76.0%.

*Notes:

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] ARC* reports for US travel agencies for December: air tickets sold US$1bn  -83%; average US roundtrip ticket US$336, which we calculate is -29.4%; passenger trips 6.51mn -66% (domestic 4.2mn -64%, international 2.3mn -70%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$2.66mn -61%; EMD transactions 53.4k -56%.

-For December (compared with November 2020), a (ARC) reduced set of measures: passenger trips -6% (domestic -9%, international -1%).

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

-Any rounding by ARC.

[] STR* reports on hotels in December:.

–Dubai occupancy 71.0% (-10.0%), average room rate US$166 (Dh608.92 -9.1%).

–London 24.0% (-70.3%), US$117 (£85.58 -46.2%).

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

US travel agencies, weekly

14 January 2021

ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-52-week-average. 1. -64.69%. 2. -73.16%. 3. -75.36%. 4. -56.26%. 5. -65.91%.

 In 7-day periods through:

-January 10. 1. -63.2%. 2. -77.0%. 3. -82.8%. 4. -51.1%. 5. -63.0%.

-January 3. 1. -72.6%. 2. -82.9%. 3. -88.7%. 4. -62.8%. 5. -72.5%.

-December 27. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.

-December 20. 1. -66.2%. 2. -80.2%. 3. -84.9%. 4. -51.3%. 5. -69.6%.

-December 13. 1. -68.3%. 2. -80.4%. 3. -84.7%. 4. -56.4%. 5. -69.9%.

-December 6. 1. -70.8%. 2. -81.4%. 3. -86.0%. 4. -60.2%. 5. -71.4%.

-November 29. 1. -70.5%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -85.2%. 4. -61.0%. 5. -72.1%.

-November 22. 1. -71.2%. 2. -81.7%. 3. -86.0%. 4. -60.4%. 5. -72.1%.

-November 15. 1. -67.4%. 2. -78.9%. 3. -70.12%. 4. -53.59%. 5. -61.79%.

-November 8. 1. -68.4%. 2. -80.2%. 3. -85.7%. 4. -54.3%. 5. -69.1%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Our outlook

13 January 2021

The following extracted from our input for an external report.

1 What is your assessment of performance in your business September-December 2020 compared to what you reasonably would expect for that period?

Worse.

2 What have been the main determinants for the evolution of [the travel business] in the last 4-month period?

Covid-19.

3 What are prospects for performance in your business January-April compared to what you reasonably would expect for that period?

Worse.

4 What will be the main determinants for the evolution of [the travel business] for that period?

Worse, although better than outlook, say, two months ago. The reason is the arrival of vaccines for covid 19.

5 What is your assessment of performance in your business in 2020 as compared to 2019?

Worse.

6 What are your prospects for performance in your business in 2021 as compared to 2020?

Much better.

7 What will be the main determinants for the evolution of [the travel business] in 2021?

Vaccines for covid 19 will prompt a restart, but still a long way from 2019.

8 What will be the major travel trends in 2021?

Selected from choices provided:

-Domestic tourism, travel close to home

-Last-minute booking

-Health and safety measures

  But all still linked to the progress of covid-19 vaccines. And their presumed efficiency. For instance, slower restart in Bali – because Indonesia has approved China’s Sinovac-made vaccines, and if there is still no clear information on tests for these, and still not approved in US and Europe.

9 Will the vaccine contribute to accelerate the recovery of [the international travel business]?

(There is not a ‘vaccine’ (singular); there are many covid vaccines.)

Yes, but there may be twists – see #8.

10 When do you expect a rebound in [the international travel business] in your country?

We don’t have a ‘country’. But a ‘rebound’ will start with a Dead Cat Bounce from the big falls starting February and March 2020. So this February.

11 When do you expect [the international travel business] to return to pre-pandemic 2019 levels in your country?

We don’t have a ‘country’. However, worldwide – broadly – summer 2021, but with many differences.

12 What are the three main factors weighing on the recovery of [the international travel business]?

Selected from choices provided:

-Travel restrictions

-Slow virus containment

-Low consumer confidence

13 Is domestic [travel] driving the recovery in your destination?

We don’t have a ‘destination’. However, worldwide – broadly – yes.

*Notes:

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, January 1-8.

FOXTROTS*

Travel Industry Data News, January 1-8.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks

8 January 2021

The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in December for US hotel companies was 4,574 +5.0% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was -13.2%. Our database shows their end-2019 Index was 5,270 +6.1% +29.5%.

  Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:

  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 178. Previous month 175; end-2019 195.

  -The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 146. Previous month: 117; end-2019 211.

  -‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 187, Asia Pacific 49, Europe 163, US 348. Previous month: World 177, Asia Pacific 50, Europe 154, US 326. End-2019 World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.

  -The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-TechIndex’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) was at 139. Previous month 131; end-2019 160.

  -The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 95. Previous month 98; end-2019 109.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-TechIndex’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Airline business update, November

8 January 2021

IATA* reports for November:

-Worldwide RPKs -70.3%, ASKs -58.6%, load factor 58.0% -23.0pt.

-RPKs by region – Asia Pacific -61.6%, Europe -82.2%, Middle East -84.5%, North America -67.6%.

-International RPKs -88.3% – Asia Pacific -95.0%, Europe -87.0%, Middle East -86.0%, North America -83.0%.

-Domestic RPKs -41.0% – Australia -79.8%, Brazil -34.5%, China -4.8%, India -49.6%, Japan -39.5%, Russia -23.0%, US -59.9%.

*Notes:

-IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

US hotel updates

7 January 2021

STR* results reports, weekly:

-27 December-2 January occupancy 40.6% (-17.2%), average room rate US$107.93 (-21.5%).

-20-26 December 32.5% (-33.0%) US$92.08 (-28.8%).

-13-19 December 36.8% (-26.4%) US$85.50 (-21.9%).

-6-12 December 37.8% (-37.4%) US$85.88 (-31.7%).

-29 November-5 December 37.4% (-37.9%) US$86.21 (-33.1%).

-22-28 November 36.2% (-28.5%) US$92.49 (-17.8%).

-15-21 November 41.2% (-32.6%) US$88.54 (-29.0%).

-8-14 November 43.2% (-32.7%) US$90.58 (-28.6%).

-1-7 November 44.2% (-35.9%) US$91.40 (-31.1%).

-25-31 October 44.4% (-29.0%) US$91.56 (-27.4%).

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

US travel agencies, weekly

5 January 2021

ARC* reports weekly percentage falls for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-YTD. 1. -61.79%. 2. -69.92%. 3. -71.63%. 4. -54.11%. 5. -62.93%.

 In 7-day periods through:

-January 3. 1. -72.6%. 2. -82.9%. 3. -88.7%. 4. -62.8%. 5. -72.5%.

-December 27. 1. -63.8%. 2. -76.4%. 3. -77.9%. 4. -55.0%. 5. -69.9%.

-December 20. 1. -66.2%. 2. -80.2%. 3. -84.9%. 4. -51.3%. 5. -69.6%.

-December 13. 1. -68.3%. 2. -80.4%. 3. -84.7%. 4. -56.4%. 5. -69.9%.

-December 6. 1. -70.8%. 2. -81.4%. 3. -86.0%. 4. -60.2%. 5. -71.4%.

-November 29. 1. -70.5%. 2. -81.1%. 3. -85.2%. 4. -61.0%. 5. -72.1%.

-November 22. 1. -71.2%. 2. -81.7%. 3. -86.0%. 4. -60.4%. 5. -72.1%.

-November 15. 1. -67.4%. 2. -78.9%. 3. -70.12%. 4. -53.59%. 5. -61.79%.

-November 8. 1. -68.4%. 2. -80.2%. 3. -85.7%. 4. -54.3%. 5. -69.1%.

-November 1. 1. -68.6%. 2. -80.2%. 3. -85.3%. 4. -53.8%. 5. -69.6%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

TBA Tracking: selection of latest travel data, world

4 January 2021

Thru-November, likely to be close to full-year:

-China Southern seat sales -38%.

-Ryanair seat sales -65%.

-Singapore Airlines seat sales, group, -86%.

-US hotel occupancy -33%. STR.

-US travel agency $ sales -76%.

Thru-October:

-Air traffic (RPKs): AsPac -61.8%, Europe -68.2%, North America -64.7%, world -65.1%. IATA.

-Visitor arrivals: AsPac -82%, Europe -69%, North America -68%, world -72%. WTO.

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.