TBA Tracking: June travel stocks’ downs and, yes, ups

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TBA Tracking: June travel stocks’ downs and, yes, ups

Commentary (numbers below):

 

Instead of an unmitigated disaster, it is becoming a mitigated disaster. (Yes, that’s an improvement.)

 

-There is the beginning of a pattern. At its broadest, travel stocks in Asia Pacific slight growth (+3% compared with previous month), Europe still falling (-6%), US quite good (+6%).

 

-Compared with pre-covid end-2019, however, there is some way to go. AsPac -30% compared with end-2019 prices, Europe -47%, US -40%.

 

-We track 12 separate sectors (geographical, business, etc), with some minor duplication (eg, a travel-tech stock in Europe also covered in all-travel-tech stocks). Of these, 5 are falling compared with previous month, 7 growing. But compared with end-2019, all are still down; closest to recovery is, not unexpectedly, China, down -12%. Outside China, relative best is AsPac hotels, down -22%.

 

-Among airlines, Norwegian continues its tumble. It was NK324 at its 2015 end-year peak; now NK3. Perhaps it is better to shut down – India’s non-flying Jet was +41% and only -1% over end-2019!

 

-For airlines, in AsPac 10 of our 14 were still down; in Europe, 8 of 10. But in the US only 1 of 7. That said, US airlines have fallen further this year. With renewed concern in the US over covid infections, they will probably fall this month.

 

-For hotels, falls were generally slighter. InterContinental and Marriott, the two giants, were -8% and -3%. In AsPac, only 1 of 6 fell.

 

-Travel-tech was -1% but with mixed individual results, from +13% to -14%.

 

-For Others:

  -Much commentary on Hertz which, despite filing for bankruptcy, was the fastest-growing in the US in June +41%, but down the most, -91%, on its end-2019 price.

  -Our two airport-group companies – Paris (ADP) -2%, Frankfurt (Fraport) -13%. Our single airports are in China – Beijing (Hong Kong-quoted) +0.4%, Guangzhou -7%, Shanghai -0.4%.

  -Airbus and Boeing, despite general negative reports for both, grew – +12% +26%.

  -Cruisers Carnival and Royal Caribbean were +4% -3%, but both had fallen further than most other US stocks. They are -68% -62% on end-2019.

 

-China’s travel stocks were +4% – same for both, quoted in China and out.

 

-No clear pattern for NFAs (no-frills-airlines). In AsPac, Air Asia +27% but half its end-2019 price, and China’s Spring -2%. In Europe 1 up, 1 down, 1 unchanged. In the US, Southwest +6%.

 

-China’s big-3 airlines similar moves, as usual – +2%, +1%, +2%.

 

-The three top-end hotel groups – Peninsula +4%, Mandarin +5%, Shangri-La flat. All are -16-18% below their end-2019 prices.

 

-Of stockmarkets, Istanbul is the only one back above end-2019, although that market is often more out of line with apparent ‘facts-on-the-ground’ than other markets. Of those other (slightly)-more-understandable markets, New Zealand’s was just short, -1%, of end-2019.

 

Furthest from recovery is Travel Weekly US, -34%, which as discouraging in that this is a travel industry measure; others cover all industries.

 

 

Numbers – Indices:

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 137, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 123, US 243. Index previous month: World 137, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 126, US 241. Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.

 

-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 78. Index previous month 77. Index end-2019 105.

 

-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 107. Index previous month 109. Index end-2019 170.

 

 

Numbers – Sectors:

 

Asia Pacific. Airlines +2%, Hotels +2%, Others +4%.

 

-Europe. Airlines -7%, Hotels -10%, Others -2%.

 

-US. Airlines +13%, Hotels -6%, Others +6%.

 

-China +4%. China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) +4%.

 

-Travel-tech -1%.

 

-Stockmarkets +3%.

 

 

Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. The February issue included annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, June 22-26.

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Travel Industry Data News, June 22-26.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Travel business updates

26 June 2020

[] WTO* reports that at June 15:

-A 22% share of the 141 destinations (that the WTO counts) had eased travel restrictions; it was 3% May 18. In the Americas 6 destinations, Asia Pacific 3, Europe 37.

-65% still had their borders closed. In the Americas 76%, Asia Pacific 67%, Europe 26%.

-At June 15, 24% of destinations had had travel restrictions for 19 weeks, 37% for 15 weeks.

*Notes:

-WTO – World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO – is a Spain-based lobby group for the travel business.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] STR* and TE* forecast have improved (meaning less bad) their forecast last-month for US hotels in 2020. Occupancy -36.2% (they say they forecast -45.0%, but our database shows -45.8%); average room rate +5.2% (+1.7%).

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-TE = Tourism Economics, US-based. Part of Oxford Economics, UK-based, and unrelated to the university.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Travel business updates

25 June 2020

[] WTO* reports on damage caused by the covid coronavirus:

-Arrivals – Jan-Apr -44%, April -97%, March -55%.

-Spend – Jan-Apr about -US$195bn.

-Jan-Apr arrivals – Americas -36%, Asia Pacific -51%, Europe -44%, World -44%.

*Notes:

-WTO – World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO – is a Spain-based lobby group for the travel business.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] PCW (Phocuswright, a travel research company specialising in online data) reports that US travellers booking short-term rentals took a 34% +4pts share in 2019. And 40% of those booking were under 35.

 

Travel business updates

24 June 2020

[] STR* reports on hotels:

Central/South America May occupancy -73.0% to 15.3%, average room rate -34.3% to US$54.17.

Asia Pacific May -47.3% 35.8%, -40.2% US$55.93.

Europe May -82.3% 13.3%, -33.7% US$83 (€77.56).

Middle East May -31.0% 36.0%, -45.6% US$87.84.

US hotels June 14-20 -41.8% 43.9%, -31.7% US$92.20.

US hotels revenue per available room in May was -88.3% to US$28.62.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company, US-based.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in May for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-YTD. 1. -51.9%. 2. -57.4%. 3. -56.0%. 4. -48.9%. 5. -52.1%.

In 7-day periods through:

-June 21. 1. -76.5%. 2. -85.2%. 3. -89.8%. 4. -67.0%. 5. -78.9%.

-June 14. 1. -75.2%. 2. -56.32%. 3. -54.79%. 4. -48.16%. 5. -51.07%.

-June 7. 1. -81.1%. 2. -88.5%. 3. -92.0%. 4. -73.2%. 5. -82.6%.

-May 31. 1. -83.7%. 2. -89.9%. 3. -92.9%. 4. -77.4%. 5. -84.7%.

-May 24. 1. -85.2%. 2. -91.1%. 3. -93.3%. 4. -79.0%. 5. -86.4%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Travel business updates

23 June 2020

[] ARC* reports for US travel agencies:

-For May compared with May 2019: air tickets sold -US$198mn -102% (ie, refunds totalled more than sales); average US roundtrip ticket US$353 -$158; passenger trips 3.6mn -87% (domestic 2.7mn -84%, international 925.6k -91%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$1.4mn -81%; EMD transactions 28.6k -76%.

-For May compared with April 2020, (an ARC) reduced set of measures: air tickets sold +69%; passenger trips +67% (domestic +85%, international +30%).

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-Any rounding by ARC.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] Travel deals done*. GD* reports on latest deals done by companies in the travel business. Findings:

-Deals Jun 8-14 27 (which we calculate +42.1%); Jun 1-7 19 (change not given); May 25-31 -31.3% (number not given); May 18-24 -38.5% (number not given); May 11-17 26 -3.7%; May 4-10 27 (growth not given). GD usually gives growth over average of last 12 months, but these are over the previous weeks.

-GD information on locations is inconsistent, and some appears to be incorrect, viz:

   -It reported for Jun 8-14 that deals grew in Australia (not usually included), UK, US (numbers not given). China fell; India no change. No information given for the other market GD usually covers – Korea.

   -For May 25-31 deals fell in the UK and US (numbers not given). No information for China, India, Korea.

   -For May 18-24 deals fell in the US (number not given). Yet for May 11-17 GD did not note where the 26 deals it listed were done; we presumed the US. For that same week for China, India, UK it noted no deals. And for May 4-10, one deal each for China, India, UK.

   -For UK May 11-17 GD notes an ‘improvement’ – although for the previous week it reported zero deals. And it added that in Korea deal numbers were the same as the previous week – although it gave no number that previous week. In addition, GD made no reference to China, India.

*Notes:

-Details as reported by GD, a data and analytics company.

-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

If outbound travel switched to domestic

22 June 2020

See table for our calculation. Excerpts:

-Both China and India would actually have more ‘visitors’ if some of its residents switched from travelling outbound.

-Biggest loser would be Hong Kong. In addition to our statistical finding, we believe that few (less than 5%?) of outbound travellers would switch to a domestic ‘break’.

-Likewise for Singapore.

-For Australia, Japan, and possibly Korea, we believe those switching to domestic would be greater than our statistics indicate.

-For India, our calculation indicates a gain for the inbound market if 40% switched.

 

If outbound travel switched to domestic

If 40% of outbound travellers switched to travel domestically, that would represent xxx% of visitor arrivals

Market Share*,%
Australia 47.8
China 173.7
Hong Kong 9.3
India 117.1
Japan 25.2
Korea 65.6
Singapore 22.4

Notes: Based on 2019 data. TBA=Travel Business Analyst. TBA manipulation on counts of inbound and outbound travel. China and Hong Kong include technically-domestic travel between China, Hong Kong, Macau. Source: DMOs for all except Australia (government), China (TBA estimates), Hong Kong (government for outbound), India (TBA estimates for outbound), Singapore (government).

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, June 15-19.

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Travel Industry Data News, June 15-19.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Travel business updates

19 June 2020

[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in May for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-YTD. 1. -50.90%. 2. -85.4%. 3. -90.3%. 4. -63.5%. 5. -78.4%.

In 7-day periods through:

-June 14. 1. -75.2%. 2. -56.32%. 3. -54.79%. 4. -48.16%. 5. -51.07%.

-June 7. 1. -81.1%. 2. -88.5%. 3. -92.0%. 4. -73.2%. 5. -82.6%.

-May 31. 1. -83.7%. 2. -89.9%. 3. -92.9%. 4. -77.4%. 5. -84.7%.

-May 24. 1. -85.2%. 2. -91.1%. 3. -93.3%. 4. -79.0%. 5. -86.4%.

-May 17. 1. -87.4%. 2. -92.6%. 3. -94.3%. 4. -82.4%. 5. -87.9%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] STR* reports on US hotels:

-7-13 June occupancy -43.4% to 41.7%, average room rate -33.9% to US$89.09.

-31 May-6 June: -45.3% 39.3%, -35.9% US$85.01.

-May -51.7% 33.1%, -39.9% US$79.57.
-24-30 May: -43.2% 36.6%, -33.3% US$82.94.

-17-23 May: -50.2% 35.4%, -39.7% US$80.92.

-10-16 May: -54.1% 32.4%, -42.4% US$77.55.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.

[] GD* on Generation X in the UAE* about covid and travel.

-36% ‘strongly agree’ they have changed or cancelled domestic- and 41% international-travel. As we have noted about some earlier GD surveys, we cannot understand why this is a matter of ‘agreeing’; either they cancelled/changed, or they didn’t. We have seen no data, but we believe UAE domestic travel is small, under 1mn.

-65% remain ‘extremely concerned’ about covid. This may or may not be important for travel. Many would-be travellers are concerned about covid; but will they travel or not, and when?

*Notes:

-GD = Global Data, a data and analytics company.

-UAE = United Arab Emirates. Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Ajman, Fujairah, Ras al Khaimah, Sharjah, Umm al Quwain

-Wikipedia defines Generation X as those born around 1965-80, but some for those born 1960 through 1977-85. GD does not define the term.

-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

US travel forecast to fall

18 June 2020

TE* forecasts for USTA* a -45% fall in total travel spend in the US this year. That is a bigger fall than the -31% expected in domestic and international travel. That means travellers are forecast to spend less when they do travel.

This matches TE’s May forecast for STR* – a -46% fall in 2020 US hotel occupancy, then +46% in 2021.

Other findings:

-Domestic traveller spend -40% to US$583bn.

-International visitor spend -75% to US$39bn, with most of the percentage fall from Overseas visitors, -69% to US$12bn. (Spend from Canada and Mexico visitors is bigger, totalling US$17bn.)

-Although recovery is forecast from 2021 in all sectors, some sectors are forecast to be below 2019 results at the end of this forecast period, 2023.

-Still below would be 2023 total visitor arrivals (although Canada and Mexico are forecast to have passed their 2019 totals). But 2023 spend is still forecast to be below 2019 – domestic and international.

-Of course, AAGRs (annual average growth rates) are forecast to be much slower. Of those, where our database has earlier forecasts, USTA forecast a +2.5% AAGR 2018-24 for visitor arrivals; now we calculate it forecasts a -4.9% AAGR over a different 2019-23. (Even if we extrapolate, an AAGR 2019-24 would still be negative, -1.7%.)

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.

-TE = Tourism Economics. Part of Oxford Economics, and unrelated to the university.

-USTA = US Travel Association. Member- not government-funded. Acts as an industry association, not a promoting body such as a DMO.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Travel Trottings: A bumbling bureaucrat

17 June 2020

See https://wp.me/pTv9-qq
Excerpt:
…‘Our interpretation is that Guterres (Antonio, head of the United Nations) tells us that travelling can help the world recover from the damage caused by the covid coronavirus.
…‘Now for the most egregious countering fact – travel was the sole cause of the worldwide spread of covid. If the virus started in Wuhan, China, as generally believed, then it would likely have not gone further if the first carrier/s stayed in Wuhan. But they travelled, as did others, and so spread the virus worldwide.
…‘To have the chutzpah not only to ignore this fact, but to add that travel can help the recovery, seems shockingly irresponsible – if not plain stupid.’

 

TBA Tracking: Asia Pacific YTD visitor arrivals, resident departures

16 June 2020

A brief review of YTD counts*, growth only, for visitor arrivals in selected destinations, and resident/citizen departures from selected markets.

-Visitor arrivals – China -7%, Hong Kong -35%, Singapore -8%, Thailand 0.4%.

-Resident/citizen departures – China -12%, Japan -6%, Korea -16%, Taiwan +4%.

*Notes:

-January through March.

-Data from various sources, mainly DMOs, government departments, and most excerpted from our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

TBA Tracking

15 June 2020

Starting this week, and probably for at least the next one or two months, we have suspended most of our reports under this heading.

  This is because most current measures show falls of around 95-99%, and we believe that there is little marketing value in the information that one measure has fallen, say, -96.5% compared with -98.7% for another.

  In addition, those measures that arrive late, showing data from before the covid virus, or even at the start, are also almost irrelevant.

  We plan to restart as falls begin to vary – -30% here, but still -80% there. Hopefully, that will probably be from next August for some of the missing reports.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Travel Industry Data News, June 8-12

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Travel Industry Data News, June 8-12.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

WTTC on job/business losses

12 June 2020

The WTTC* has reissued forecasts on job losses due to the covid coronavirus. Its earlier forecasts, in late-April, contained mistakes, some of which we refer to here.

WTTC did not respond to our questions, and so we were unable to provide all corrections. Its reissued forecast is better presented than its first, although some mistakes are repeated.

WTTC has forecast for three different scenarios, see below. Its current forecast for the worst-case (see below) includes:

-198mn (WTTC also reports 197mn) travel jobs will be lost due to covid. Previously WTTC did not clarify the period; its new forecast is for 2020. It earlier forecast -101mn job losses, but as the period was not provided, we cannot determine how its current forecast compares with the previous one. WTTC presents this as ‘new research’ and as a +96% growth from the -101mn jobs lost, so it would appear to be the same period, thus 2020.

Regions:

Regions in the ‘worst case’ (numbers rounded by Travel Business Analyst):

-Americas. -30mn (WTTC also reports -31mn) jobs lost (in April it forecast -14mn), -US$5.5tn loss in TGDP (travel GDP) (-US$791bn).

 We cannot understand the 7x difference between the old and new GDP forecasts, particularly as job losses are under 2x.

  Previously, we calculated that sub-regions North America, Latin America, Caribbean, were included in the Americas total. WTTC did not clarify that, but now it does.

  However, WTTC’s geographical knowledge on the Americas remains wrong – surprising given the fact that the organisation’s head is from Mexico! To explain (again), Mexico is part of North America as well as WTTC’s (non-geographical and technically incorrect) ‘Latin America’ (think of the three non-Latin ‘Guyanas’).

  We presume WTTC has not double-counted Mexico’s total, but that it has (wrongly) excluded the country from North America and included it in Latin America.

-Asia Pacific. -115mn -$1.9tn TGDP (-63mn -$1041bn). ThePacific’ was not shown in the earlier report; we presumed it was included in the Asia total but not so marked. WTTC has corrected what we now know was an error.

-Europe. -30mn -$1.6tn TGDP (-13mn -$709bn).

-Sub-region North America -18.2mn -$1.5tn TGDP (-8mn -$681bn).

Scenarios:

[] Worst-case. Current restrictions starting to ease from September for shorthaul- and regional-travel, from October for medium-haul, from November for longhaul. WTTC forecasts that this would cause a -73% fall in arrivals, and -64% in domestic travel – presumably for all-2020. WTTC notes domestic ‘arrivals’, but it is not clear if this is for arrivals in accommodation units, or something different.

[] Mid-case. Current restrictions starting to ease from June for regional travel, from July for shorthaul- and regional-travel, from August for medium-haul, from September for longhaul. That would cause a -53% fall in arrivals, and -34% in domestic travel.

[] Best-case: Current measures starting to ease from June for shorthaul- and regional-travel, from July for medium-haul, from August for longhaul. That would cause a -41% fall in arrivals, and -26% in domestic travel.

*Notes:

-WTTC (World Travel & Tourism Council), a lobby group for the travel business, has its own methodology for calculating the turnover of the travel business including not just inbound, outbound, and domestic travel, but other industries involved in the business. For instance, if 0.5% of the world’s cars go into the car-rental business, that measure would be calculated into the turnover of the overall travel business. It terms all this a travel GDP (gross domestic product), which we usually reduce to TGDP.

-Unfortunately, WTTC is not always clear that its data is related to this grand total, and often its commentary appears to be related to just one sector – often, the inbound visitor business. In addition, it sometimes uses the terms ‘travel’ or ‘tourism’ alone; we cannot always determine if these mean something different from ‘travel & tourism’.

-WTTC’s name does not help – the ‘TT’ is ‘travel & tourism’, where we would define ‘travel’ as covering all segments of the travel business, with ‘tourism’ meaning ‘leisure travel’ to most observers, just one segment. This means that most people and bodies the WTTC lobbies may think they are discussing just inbound leisure travel.

-WTTC reports that the travel business in 2019 represented a 10% (330mn) share of jobs, 25% of new jobs, 10.3% of world GDP.

-At press time, WTTC had not answered our request for clarifications.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Hotel business updates

11 June 2020

[] STR* reports:

-On Berlin hotels in May: occupancy -88.0% to 10.0%, average room rate -28.6% to US$83 (€76.84).

-On Sydney hotels in May: occupancy -71.6% to 23.1%, average room rate -41.1% to US$78 (A$122.01).

-On US hotels 31 May-6 June: occupancy -45.3% to 39.3%, average room rate -35.9% to US$85.01.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research; despite that name, a hotel-research company.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.

 

Travel business updates

10 June 2020

[] Malta forecasts its 2020 visitor arrivals will not reach 25% of the 2.8mn in 2019. That would be about 688k. Its airport, shut March 20, is due to open July 1.

[] Research & Markets* (RM), a company, forecasts:

-That Turkey’s hotel market will be US$1.6bn at end-2026. No growth given. We presume this is hotel revenue.

-RM adds that in 2019, Turkey ‘has named the 6th most visited country across the globe hosted a large number of tourists’ (sic). We believe RM means that Turkey counted 51mn visitors in 2019, which was 6th after France Spain US China Italy – according to our database. It would be 5th if WTO did not include domestic travel from Hong Kong and Macau into China proper.

*Notes:

-We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.

-At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] A study by Travel Agent Central on US travel found:

-50% plan to take their next vacation this year – 18% summer, 24% autumn, 8% (not clear). 43% plan for 2021, 7% plan for 2022.

-Of those travelling this year 45% will fly, 25% drive, 18% cruise. We presume the balance is undecided.

-Of the main international destinations, 38% are ‘interested’ in Europe, 34% Caribbean, 15% Mexico.

*Notes:

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks

9 June 2020

The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in May for US hotel companies was 3232 +1.7% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was -38.7%.

Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:

-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 144. Previous month: 139.

-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 125. Previous month: 123.

-‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 136, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 123, US 241. Previous month: World 129, Asia Pacific 46, Europe 119, US 223.

-The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) was at 111. Previous month: 99.

-The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 80. Previous month: 81.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research; despite that name, a hotel-research company.

-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

 

Travel business updates

8 June 2020

[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in May for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-YTD. 1. -49.91%. 2. -55.11%. 3. -53.37%. 4. -47.52%. 5. -49.97%.

In 7-day periods through:

-June 7. 1. -81.1%. 2. -88.5%. 3. -92.0%. 4. -73.2%. 5. -82.6%.

-May 31. 1. -83.7%. 2. -89.9%. 3. -92.9%. 4. -77.4%. 5. -84.7%.

-May 24. 1. -85.2%. 2. -91.1%. 3. -93.3%. 4. -79.0%. 5. -86.4%.

-May 17. 1. -87.4%. 2. -92.6%. 3. -94.3%. 4. -82.4%. 5. -87.9%.

-May 10. 1. -88.6%. 2. -93.5%. 3. -94.8%. 4. -84.0%. 5. -89.3%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Travel Industry Data News, June 1-5.

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Travel Industry Data News, June 1-5.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Travel business updates

5 June 2020

[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in May for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-YTD. 1. -48.50%. 2. -53.58%. 3. -51.67%. 4. -46.33%. 5. -48.53%.

In 7-day periods through:

-May 31. 1. -83.7%. 2. -89.9%. 3. -92.9%. 4. -77.4%. 5. -84.7%.

-May 24. 1. -85.2%. 2. -91.1%. 3. -93.3%. 4. -79.0%. 5. -86.4%.

-May 17. 1. -87.4%. 2. -92.6%. 3. -94.3%. 4. -82.4%. 5. -87.9%.

-May 10. 1. -88.6%. 2. -93.5%. 3. -94.8%. 4. -84.0%. 5. -89.3%.

-May 3. 1. -81.8%. 2. -89.5%. 3. -91.1%. 4. -74.0%. 5. -82.5%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) reports April RPKs -94.3%, ASKs -87.0%, load factor 36.6% -46.6pt.

RPKs by region – Asia Pacific -88.5%, Europe -98.1%, Middle East -97.3%, North America -96.6%.

International RPKs -98.4% – Asia Pacific -98.0%, Europe -99.0%,, Middle East -97.3%, North America -98.3%.

Domestic RPKs -86.9% – Australia -96.8%, Brazil -93.1%, China -66.6%, Japan -88.7%, Russia -82.7%, US -95.7%.

*Notes:

-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] STR* reports on US hotels 24-30 May: occupancy 36.6% (-43.2%), average room rate US$82.94 (-33.3%).

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research; despite that name, a hotel-research company.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.

 

TBA Tracking: Visitor-spend in Europe; Eurotunnel traffic; Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index

4 June 2020

Visitor-spend in Europe, latest

A brief ‘main-points’ review* of latest visitor-spend counts, growth only:

-Austria +5%, France +5%, Germany +2%, Greece +13%, Italy +7%, Russia -5%, Spain +3%, Switzerland +2%, Turkey +18%, UK +7%. Europe +1%.

*Notes:

-Months are usually for larger/significant cities/destinations, latest available. All are January through December.

-Data from various sources, mainly Tourmis, WTO, and destinations.

-Most excerpted from our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

Eurotunnel traffic, latest

A brief ‘main-points’ review* of latest Eurotunnel, growth only:

-Eurostar passengers. Q1 -20%.

-Cars transported. Q1 -14%.

-Buses transported. Q1 -30%.

*Notes:

-Eurotunnel releases some data monthly and other data quarterly. Here, we show only quarterly data.

-Excerpted from our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index

Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 99 in April. Index previous month 90. Index end-2019 170.

Comments:

-There was recovery in April, with six of our seven stocks growing. Only Lastminute fell.

-However, bad in that three are still below their base price – cTrip, Expedia, Trivago.

-All seven are still below their pre-covid prices, this past January, and seem unlikely, statistically, to catch up for at least 3/4 months.

*Notes:

-NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech. The Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US – one of which, cTrip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for cTrip, end-2016 for Trivago.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-20

Company Price,local currency Growth┼,% NVTT* index
Apr 20 Dec 19 stock market Company All
Amadeus 43.9 72.8 1.7 2.0 133 135
Booking╪ 1481 2054 10.1 15.4 130 132
cTrip 25.8 34.9 14.4 10.4 55 56
eDreams 2.15 4.27 15.9 2.0 130 132
Expedia 71.0 108 26.1 10.4 83 84
Lastminute 21.4 46.0 -0.5 3.4 143 145
Trivago 1.83 2.62 25.3 10.4 16 16

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed 2018; was Priceline. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

 

Travel business updates

3 June 2020

[] GD* reports on latest deals done by companies in the travel business. Findings:

-Deals -31.3% (number not given) May 25-31; -38.5% (number not given) May 18-24; 26 -3.7% May 11-17; 27 (growth not given) May 4-10. GD usually gives growth over average of last 12 months, but these are over the previous weeks.

-GD information on locations is inconsistent, and appears to be incorrect, viz:

   -It reported for May 25-31 that deals fell in the UK and US (numbers not given). No information was given for the other markets GD usually covers – China, India, Korea.

   -For May 18-24 deals fell in the US (number not given). Yet for May 11-17 GD did not note where the 26 deals it listed were done; we presumed the US. For that same week for China, India, UK (markets selected by GD) it noted no deals. And for May 4-10, one deal each for China, India, UK.

   -For UK May 11-17 GD notes an ‘improvement’ – although for the previous week it had reported zero deals. And it adds that in Korea deal numbers were the same as the previous week – although it had given no number that previous week. In addition, GD made no reference to the other two markets – China, India.

*Notes:

-GD = Global Data, a data and analytics company.

-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] UK-based Technavio, a research company, forecasts India’s ‘travel services’ market will grow +18.1% this year, and +US$56bn over 2020-24, a 19% AAGR (annual average growth rate).

  These are the same figures as its forecast in early-March. Given the disruption caused by the covid virus, this damages the credibility of forecast.

*Notes:

-We understand that ‘travel services’ means travel agencies, on- and off-line. This would normally include domestic-, inbound-, outbound-travel.

-Data as shown; nothing to put these growth figures into context.

-In March it also forecast that 82% of growth would be from online. We do not know if that forecast is maintained.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

-At press time, Technavio had not answered our request for clarifications.

[] Starting this year, the Lufthansa group reports traffic results quarterly rather than monthly. Those for Q1 along with April have just been released. Excerpts:

-Seat sales 21.8mn -26.1%. April 241k -98.1%.

-Seat load factor 73.3% -4.7 pts. April 47.5% -35.8ots.

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] New data from the WTO* indicates that visitor-spend growth in Europe in 2019 was slower than generally accepted. WTO does not give growth (perhaps it is waiting for final figures) but it puts spend at US$574bn, which we calculate would be +0.9%. Arrivals grew +4.0%.

*Notes: WTO (World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO) is a lobby group for the travel business).

 

TBA Tracking: Airline financial results; passenger counts to/from Singapore and Sydney; and to/from AsPac to/from Australia, France, Germany, UK

2 June 2020

Airline financial results compared

Our results database compares latest airline results against our calculated non-industry-standard measures*. For Japan Airlines US$314 US$22 (year earlier US$316 US$37), Singapore Airlines US$297 US$14 (US$326 US$14).

*Notes:

-Extract shows revenue-per-seat-sold and operating-profit-per-seat-sold, in US$ for latest reported fiscal year; whole groups where relevant.

-Data from airlines, and most excerpted from the current Asia Pacific edition of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

Air passenger counts to/from Singapore and Sydney

A brief ‘main-points’ report on latest YTD* air passenger counts* to/from Singapore, Sydney over selected country/regional-pairs in Asia Pacific, Europe, UAE/Dubai, US. Growth only:

-To/from Singapore: China -61%, Hong Kong -58%, Japan -30%, Thailand -36%, UK -15%. Europe -17%, Middle East -66%, North America -14%, Oceania -15%, South Asia -24%. All -33%.

-To/from Sydney: Auckland -18%, Bangkok -33%, Beijing -54%, Denpasar -0.3%, Hong Kong -39%, Singapore -13%, Tokyo -19%. Dubai -8%, London -3%, Los Angeles -13%. All -20%.

*Notes:

-Data is for January through March.

-Data from Singapore Dept of Statistics, Dept Transport & Communications (Australia), and most excerpted from our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

Air passenger counts to/from AsPac to/from Australia, France, Germany, UK

A brief ‘main-points’ report on latest YTD* air passenger counts* to/from Australia, France, Germany, UK over selected country-pairs to/from Asia Pacific. Growth only:

-To/from Australia: China -55%, Hong Kong -39%, India -3%, Japan -12%, Korea -29%, Singapore -16%, Thailand -9%. UAE -10%. All -18%.

-To/from France (Paris only): China -67%, Hong Kong -63%, India -47%, Japan -39%, Korea -42%, Singapore -43%, Thailand -31%. UAE -35%. All -46%.

-To/from Germany: China -54%, Hong Kong -52%, India -22%, Japan -30%, Korea -28%, Singapore -16%, Thailand -4%. UAE -17%. All -23%.

-To/from UK: Australia -5%, China -31%, Hong Kong -18%, India -22%, Japan +8%, Korea -12%, Singapore -4%, Thailand +4%. UAE +6%. All +0.4%.

*Notes:

-Different months, which currently can make a big difference. January through February for UK (its CAA is running behind with data, and still not correcting mistakes we have found for Dec 19), through March for Australia and Germany, through April for France.

-Data from Dept Transport & Communications (Australia), Aeroports de Paris, Statistisches Bundesamt (Germany), Civil Aviation Authority (UK).

-Most excerpted from the current Asia Pacific edition of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

TBA Tracking: May travel stocks; what’s going on?

1 June 2020

Commentary (numbers below):

-Stockmarkets – the only measure we track that is not specifically travel-business – grew only +3%. But most travel stocks grew faster.

-The Travel Weekly index, comprising only US travel companies, was +4.9%, effectively the same as our composite index of US markets, +4.6%.

-Surprising was the fall in Asia Pacific – in all sectors. General commentary has been on the region’s recovery-mode; the end of the lockdown. Do these falls indicate that the market believes that recovery for the travel business will take longer?

-China stocks provide no clarity – +1% for travel stocks quoted in China, but -1% for China travel stocks quoted in China and outside. That said, that difference is not great.

-As usual, some big movements twist the total. For US airlines, for instance, American was -13%. Remove that, and the all-airline fall becomes +1%.

-With Hertz shutting down, its stock was down -75%, but are investors switching to rival Avis, +31%?

-Boeing was up a cautious +3%, but rival Airbus seems to be shutting down production of its pride, the all-new double-deck new-technology A380, which probably prompted the -2% fall in the company’s stock price.

-Travel-tech had a good month, with only Last Minute falling, -6%. However, all except China’s cTrip are still well down on their end-2019 prices, even hallowed Booking -20% and Expedia -26%.

-Some strange moves for airlines in Asia. The top-4 China airlines (we now include Cathay in that category) fell badly, minus 14-19%. Yet Singapore was -37%, almost as bad as -44% at Thai, which is in bankruptcy protection. And no longer, it seems, can Air Asia do-no-wrong; down -15%, and -59% since end-2019.

-Europe’s top-3 no-frills-airlines did well – Easy +13%, Ryan +7%, Wizz +14%. In the US, Southwest was +3%.

-TUI is storming ahead – +33% in Frankfurt, +38% in London. Is there a bid coming, or a break-up?

-The two giant hotel groups performed differently – UK-quoted InterContinental +7%, US-quoted Marriott -3%.

Numbers – Indices:

-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 136, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 123, US 241. Index previous month: World 129, Asia Pacific 46, Europe 119, US 223. Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.

-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 80. Index previous month 81. Index end-2019 105.

-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 111. Index previous month 99. Index end-2019 170.

Numbers – Sectors:

-Asia Pacific. Airlines -9%, Hotels -3%, Others -5%.

-Europe. Airlines +3%, Hotels +8%, Others +5%.

-US. Airlines -1%, Hotels +4%, Others +5%.

-China +1%.

-China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) -1%.

-Travel-tech +15%.

-Stockmarkets +3%.

Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. The February issue included annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

TBA Tracking: May travel stocks; what’s going on?

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FOXTROTS*

 

TBA Tracking: May travel stocks; what’s going on?

Commentary (numbers below):

-Stockmarkets – the only measure we track that is not specifically travel-business – grew only +3%. But most travel stocks grew faster.

 

-The Travel Weekly index, comprising only US travel companies, was +4.9%, effectively the same as our composite index of US markets, +4.6%.

 

-Surprising was the fall in Asia Pacific – in all sectors. General commentary has been on the region’s recovery-mode; the end of the lockdown. Do these falls indicate that the market believes that recovery for the travel business will take longer?

 

-China stocks provide no clarity – +1% for travel stocks quoted in China, but -1% for China travel stocks quoted in China and outside. That said, that difference is not great.

 

-As usual, some big movements twist the total. For US airlines, for instance, American was -13%. Remove that, and the all-airline fall becomes +1%.

 

-With Hertz shutting down, its stock was down -75%, but are investors switching to rival Avis, +31%?

 

-Boeing was up a cautious +3%, but rival Airbus seems to be shutting down production of its pride, the all-new double-deck new-technology A380, which probably prompted the -2% fall in the company’s stock price.

 

-Travel-tech had a good month, with only Last Minute falling, -6%. However, all except China’s cTrip are still well down on their end-2019 prices, even hallowed Booking -20% and Expedia -26%.

 

-Some strange moves for airlines in Asia. The top-4 China airlines (we now include Cathay in that category) fell badly, minus 14-19%. Yet Singapore was -37%, almost as bad as -44% at Thai, which is in bankruptcy protection. And no longer, it seems, can Air Asia do-no-wrong; down -15%, and -59% since end-2019.

 

-Europe’s top-3 no-frills-airlines did well – Easy +13%, Ryan +7%, Wizz +14%. In the US, Southwest was +3%.

 

-TUI is storming ahead – +33% in Frankfurt, +38% in London. Is there a bid coming, or a break-up?

 

-The two giant hotel groups performed differently – UK-quoted InterContinental +7%, US-quoted Marriott -3%.

 

 

Numbers – Indices:

-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 136, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 123, US 241.

Index previous month: World 129, Asia Pacific 46, Europe 119, US 223.

Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.

 

-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 80.

Index previous month 81.

Index end-2019 105.

 

-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 111.

Index previous month 99.

Index end-2019 170.

 

Numbers – Sectors:

-Asia Pacific. Airlines -9%, Hotels -3%, Others -5%.

 

-Europe. Airlines +3%, Hotels +8%, Others +5%.

 

-US. Airlines -1%, Hotels +4%, Others +5%.

 

-China +1%.

 

-China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) -1%.

 

-Travel-tech +15%.

 

-Stockmarkets +3%.

 

 

Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. The February issue included annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, May 25-29.

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Travel Industry Data News, May 25-29.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Travel business updates

29 May 2020

[] Finbold reports* on the drone business:

-Investments in 2019 US$1.2bn +67%, of which venture-capital (VC) funding represented US$930mn, a 68.9% share.

-Total funding 2008-19 US$4.43bn, of which VC funding was US$3.46bn. (Finbold gives the wrong share percentage, 68.9%; on these figures we calculate it at 78.1%.)

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] STR* reports on hotel results:

-On Asia Pacific hotels in April: occupancy -60.3% to 28.0%, average room rate -44.8% to US$54.97.

-On Europe hotels in April: occupancy -84.6% to 11.1%, average room rate -30.1% to US$83.35 (€77.52).

-On Middle East hotels in April: occupancy -58.0% to 31.2%, average room rate -35.1% to US$95.54.

-On US hotels 17-23 May: occupancy -50.2% to 35.4%, average room rate -39.7% to US$80.92.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research; despite that name, a hotel-research company.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

 

Travel business updates

28 May 2020

[] Global Data reports on latest deals done* by companies in the travel business. Findings:

-Deals -38.5% (number not given); 26 -3.7% May 11-17; 27 (growth not given) May 4-10. GD usually gives growth over average of last 12 months, but these are over weeks earlier.

-GD information on locations is inconsistent, and appears to be incorrect, viz:

  -It notes for May 18-24 deals fell in the US (number not given). Yet for May 11-17 GD did not note where the 26 deals it listed were done; we presumed the US. For that same week for China, India, UK (markets selected by GD) it noted no deals. And for May 4-10, one deal each for China, India, UK.

  -For UK May 11-17 GD notes an ‘improvement’ – although for the previous week it had reported zero deals. And it adds that in Korea deal numbers were the same as the previous week – although it had given no number that previous week. In addition, GD made no reference to the other two markets – China, India.

*Notes:

-Details as reported by GD, a data and analytics company.

-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] Research & Markets* (RM), a company, forecasts outbound travel from India to GCC countries will be US$12bn ‘by 2025’ – meaning in 2024 – from 7.7mn travellers. In August 2019 it forecast US$24bn.

  It gave no traveller-number in August 2019, but we presume this also has been lowered by 50%. However definitions have changed (‘outbound tourism’ then, ‘outbound travel’ now; we do not know if RM has its own definitions.

*Notes:

-GCC=Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).

-We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.

-At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

Travel business updates

27 May 2020

[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in May for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-YTD. 1. -46.95%. 2. -51.97%. 3. -49.93%. 4. -44.90%. 5. -46.99%.

In 7-day periods through:

-May 24. 1. -85.2%. 2. -91.1%. 3. -93.3%. 4. -79.0%. 5. -86.4%.

-May 17. 1. -87.4%. 2. -92.6%. 3. -94.3%. 4. -82.4%. 5. -87.9%.

-May 10. 1. -88.6%. 2. -93.5%. 3. -94.8%. 4. -84.0%. 5. -89.3%.

-May 3. 1. -81.8%. 2. -89.5%. 3. -91.1%. 4. -74.0%. 5. -82.5%.

-April 26. 1. -91.5%. 2. -94.8%. 3. -95.9%. 4. -88.5%. 5. -91.3%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Done deals

26 May 2020

Global Data reports on deals* by companies in the travel business in April:

-Deals done 57 -50% (GD rounded) over average of last 12 months.

-Deals done worth US$4.86bn +67.4% over March, and -45.2% over average of last 12 months, which was US$8.86bn.

-North America top, US$2.81bn.

-Top-5 ‘tourism & leisure’ (T&L) deals share 81.5%, worth US$3.96bn. We do not know GD’s definition, such as how ‘travel’ is different to T&L.

-Top-5: Apollo and Silver Lake US$1.2bn private-equity deal with Expedia; Silver Lake and TPG Sixth Street US$1bn private-equity deal with AirBnB; Legend Capital’s US$1bn venture financing of Qingju; Broadscale (plus Ervington, Exor, 83North, Hearst, Macquarie Capital, Mori Trust, Pitango, Planven, River Park, Shell Ventures) US$400mn venture financing of Via Transportation; Midnight Acacia’s US$357.42mn private-equity deal with Crown Resorts.

*Notes:

-Details as reported by GD, a data and analytics company. Not all follow standard categorisation.

-We have shortened the name of some companies.

-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Traveller travel plans

25 May 2020

[] A study on residents by Oliver Wyman* found:

-51% of potential travellers in the US (Oliver Wyman* reports as ‘American’, but indications are that this is not passport-defined) are comfortable flying, compared with 48% staying in a hotel, 46% dining in restaurants. OW reports that a higher percentage is more comfortable driving than flying, but does not give the figure.

-Most comfortable with flying (no figures) are those in China, Australia, then the US. Those in Italy are the least comfortable. No data.

-64% said improvements in health and cleaning of rooms and public spaces would significantly influence their decision to stay at a hotel.

-80% prefer a large hotel compared with 57% for home rentals. (China 94% and 49%, US 83% and 61%. This finding looks contradictory because home rentals would likely be preferred because the customer is not close to others. Perhaps the OW question was closely linked to disinfections – where hotels would reasonably be expected to be cleaner than rented homes.

-People in China, Italy, Spain, US, are most likely to travel domestically. No data.

-75% of those in the US who travel for business intend to travel the same or more when restrictions are lifted.

*Notes:

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

-Oliver Wyman is a consulting firm.

[] A study on residents in France (QAPA* reports as ‘French’, but indications are that this is not passport-defined) found:

-78% still want to take their summer holidays.

-76% will stay in France. (But that response could be because they do not know if foreign travel will be allowed.)

-Only 11% plan to go to PACA (broadly the south), No 4. Ile-de-France (broadly Paris) 6% No 6. (Likewise, that response could be because Paris is the only major area – apart from some of France’s colonies, technically ‘France’ – still with strict restrictions at the time of the survey.)

*Notes:

-*QAPA is a website for part-time workers.

-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, May 18-22.

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FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, May 18-22.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Travel business updates

22 May 2020

[] A study by Likibu* on travel this summer by residents in France found:

-Enquiries/searches +50% (presumed May 11-17 over May 4-10).

-89% of searches for Jul/Aug holidays are for France; 3% Spain, Italy 1.5%. In 2019 its bookings were for France 30%, Spain 19%, Portugal 12%, Italy 11%, Greece 5%, Croatia 3%.

-Searches for PACA (broadly the south), among the main regions (our selection) were up only +9%. Paris not shown.

*Notes:

-France-based Likibu is a search-engine for holidays for France residents. It has 5mn offers, and links with Home Away, Booking, in six languages.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] Global Data reports on deals done* by companies in the travel business. Findings:

-Deals 27 (growth not given) May 4-10; 26 -3.7% May 11-17. GD usually gives growth over average of last 12 months, but latest one is over previous week.

-China, India, UK, one deal each May 4-10; zero May 11-17. GD did not note where the 26 deals were done; we presume the US.

*Notes:

-Details as reported by GD, a data and analytics company. Not all follow standard categorisation.

-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

US travel business updates

21 May 2020

[] STR* reports/forecasts:

-On Los Angeles hotels. End-March it forecast May occupancy at 25.7%, June 25.6%, July 37.4%. At May 3 it changed those forecasts to 15.6% 22.0% 31.6%.

-On US hotels 10-16 May: occupancy 32.4% -54.1%, average room rate US$77.55 -42.4%.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research; despite that name, a hotel-research company.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those outside the hotel business.

[] Hotel Management reports on CBRE data/forecasts for US hotels:

-2019 occupancy 66.1% -0.1%, average room rate (ARR) US$131.11 +0.9%.

-2020 41.0% -38.0% (HM/CBRE have also reported -37%). Luxury hotels 33.4%, economy hotels 46.4%; other categories not shown. ARR US$101.67 -22.5%.

-Q2 2020 occupancy 26.2%. Other data not shown.

-2021 55.9% +36.3%, ARR US$110.69 +8.9%.

[] STR* and TE* have again revised downwards their forecasts for US hotels:

-In 2019 occupancy was -0.1%, average room rate +0.9%.

-2020 forecast: -45.8% -21.6%.

-2021: +45.5% +1.7%.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research; despite that name, a hotel-research company.

-TE = Tourism Economics is part of Oxford Economics, and unrelated to the university.

-STR/TE also report hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.

[] ARC* reports for US-based travel agencies for April (any rounding by ARC): air tickets sold -US$648mn -107% (ie, refunds totalled more than sales); average US roundtrip ticket US$336 -$163; passenger trips 2.18mn -92% (domestic – 1.46mn -92%, international 712k -93%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$845k -90%; EMD transactions 11k -90%.

*Notes: ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

 

Travel business updates

20 May 2020

[] Reports from Global Data*:

AirBnB

-Domestic bookings in Denmark in May were 90% of the previous month, in the Netherlands 80%. We are unclear of dates – whether 1st week of May compared with same in April, or whole month.

Spain

-Forecasts 2020 visitors will total 50.2mn. We calculate that would be -40.0% on WTO’s 2019 figure that GD uses – 83.7mn.

UAE

-56% cancelled upcoming trips. We are not sure if this fact is as clear as it appears because GD also reports:

those that ‘strongly agree’ with that ‘cancelling’ statement grew +2% over the past week, and +8% over the week before. To us travellers cancelled or didn’t, and it is not a question of agreeing.

*Notes:

-A full report on these topics in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.

-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

TBA Tracking; China outbound – monthly

19 May 2020

We estimate that outbound travel from China, including travel to Hong Kong and Macau, fell -86.5% in the latest month. The earlier month was +3.0%, then +5.9% +7.0%, +2.1%, +6.7%. Details in the current editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

Travel business updates

18 May 2020

[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in April at 112k -98.3%, YTD 17.2mn -36.8%.

[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in May for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-YTD. 1. 1. -45.19%. 2. -50.09%. 3. -47.98%. 4. -43.34%. 5. -45.13%.

In 7-day periods through:

-May 17. 1. -87.4%. 2. -92.6%. 3. -94.3%. 4. -82.4%. 5. -87.9%.

-May 10. 1. -88.6%. 2. -93.5%. 3. -94.8%. 4. -84.0%. 5. -89.3%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] LM Holdings (nee Last Minute) reports Q1 revenue US$75.6mn (€70.3mn) -12.9%.

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, May 11-15.

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FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, May 11-15.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

If outbound travellers became domestic travellers. See https://wp.me/pTv9-q8

15 May 2020

 

Excerpt:

If outbound travel from selected markets in Europe switched to domestic

Market Share*,%
  Of inbound Of domestic
Austria 15.4 38.0
Belgium 57.5 138.1
Denmark 21.8 23.3
France┼ 11.8 6.3
Germany 111.7 27.2
Greece 1.2 6.1
Italy 9.3 10.6
Netherlands 43.9 35.3
Poland 26.0 10.7
Spain 7.9 4.7
Switzerland 52.2 91.8
UK╪ 67.1 19.5

Notes:

-TBA manipulation on ES counts on outbound and domestic travel, and on WTO counts on inbound travel.

-*If 40% of outbound travellers switched to travel domestically, that would represent xx% of the annual inbound-visitor or domestic-traveller count.

-┼ES has also given an implausible, but unexplained, figure that would near double the shares shown.

-╪Based on 2013 data; even before it decided in 2016 to leave the European Union, the UK cooperated poorly with EU institutions.

Source: ES=Eurostat, TBA=Travel Business Analyst, WTO=World Tourism Organization.

 

France, Spain summer forecasts

14 May 2020

Home Exchange (HE) and Happydemics (together, HH) have forecast summer travel plans for the France and Spain markets. (HH reports as ‘French’ and ‘Spanish’, but indications are that this is not passport-defined.) Some findings:

[] France.

-49% plan to take a summer holiday. That is -20pts on a 2019 study by Trip Advisor (TA).

-21% have no plans; 13% will not take a summer holiday.

-76% will travel in France, with 15% internationally. We presume the 9% balance is undecided.

-58% will stay in their own holiday home, family home, or private home. HH commentary indicates this is to avoid hotels or holiday centres, to avoid crowding, but no data given. This share looks high, and as it is HE’s business area, perhaps the survey recipients were targetted.

[] Spain.

-43% plan a summer holiday – but with the (cancelling-out) proviso of ‘if the situation gets better’. No comparison given with 2019.

-62% plan to travel in Spain, 27% internationally. As this is 100%, the shares must be of those who plan to travel. In 2019 TA reported 39% planned their summer vacation in Spain. We do not know if we can deduce from this that the 2019 international share was 61%.

*Notes:

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

-At press time, HH had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

Travel business updates

13 May 2020

[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in May for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-YTD. 1. 1. -43.01%. 2. -47.81%. 3. -45.62%. 4. -41.30%. 5. -42.89%.

In 7-day periods through:

-May 10. 1. -88.6%. 2. -93.5%. 3. -94.8%. 4. -84.0%. 5. -89.3%.

-May 3. 1. -90.2%. 2. -94.3%. 3. -95.4%. 4. -86.4%. 5. -90.8%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] STR* reports:

-On London hotels in April: occupancy -73.0% to 21.9%, average room rate -38.9% to US$108 (£87.18).

-On Melbourne hotels in April: occupancy -62.8% to 28.8%, average room rate -32.8% to US$74 (A$115.22).

-On US hotels 3-9 May: occupancy -55.9% to 30.1%, average room rate -42.1% to US$76.35.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research; despite that name, a hotel-research company.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those outside the hotel business.

[] WTO* reports:

-100% of the world’s 217 destinations have restrictions on visitor arrivals, and 72% have stopped all arrivals.

-In 25% of destinations, visitor restrictions have been in place for at least three months. In 40%, restrictions were introduced at least two months ago.

-No destination has lifted or eased visitor restrictions.

-In Europe 83% of destinations have stopped all arrivals; in the Americas 80%; Asia Pacific 70%.

*Notes:

-WTO (World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO), is a lobby group for the travel business).

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

If outbound travellers became domestic travellers

12 May 2020

Bernstein* appears to have taken OECD data to calculate winners and losers in dollars if international outbound travel this year switches to domestic travel.

-Top-3 losers – Spain -US$52.4bn, US -US$52.0bn, Turkey -US$32.5bn.

-Top-3 gainers – China +US$238.0bn, UK +US$31.4bn, Germany +US$30.3bn.

*Notes:

-Bernstein is a respected US-based research company, but at press time, it had not answered our request for clarifications.

-We believe its data is for 2018 and takes, say, visitor inbound spend, and deducts outbound spend by residents. We do that with WTO data and get US$55bn for Spain – close to Bernstein’s US$52bn.

-More complicated is China. Does Bernstein include Hong Kong and Macau, which are technically domestic areas? Again, our calculation is US$243bn without HK&M, which appears to indicate HK&M are not included in Bernstein’s China total.

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

TBA Tracking: Europe airports; Air passengers France/Germany/UK; Travel Stock Indices

11 May 2020

Airports in Europe

A brief ‘main-points’ review of latest YTD* airport-passenger throughputs*, growth only, usually for larger airports:

Main airports: Amsterdam -3%, Berlin (two) -10%, Frankfurt (two) -5%, Istanbul (two) +0.1%, London (five) -2%, Madrid +6%, Moscow (three) -3%, Paris (two) -59%, Rome (two) -9%.

‘Low-fare airports’ (LFAp*): Berlin Schonefeld -12%, Dublin +2%, London Luton -5%, London Stansted -0.1%, Milan Bergamo +1%, Palma +2%, Paris Orly -59%, Rome Ciampino +4%. All +0.2%.

*Notes:

-January through February. Currently, a month makes a big difference, so those counts through March are Paris (two), Paris Orly.

-Data mainly from ACI (Airports Council International), some directly from airports, and most excerpted from our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

-LFAp – those with sizeable portion (broadly, 25%) of no-frills-airline traffic.

Air passenger counts in France, Germany, UK

A brief ‘main-points’ report on latest YTD* air passenger counts* to/from France, Germany, UK over selected country-pairs in Europe, UAE, US. Growth only:

-To/from France (Paris only): Germany -25%, Italy -34%, Spain -21%, UK -19%. UAE -11%, US -20%. All -25%.

-To/from Germany: France -24%, Italy -36%, Spain -26%, UK -29%. UAE -17%, US -19%. All -23%.

-To/from UK: France +4%, Germany -9%, Ireland +1%, Italy -1%, Spain -1%. UAE +7%, US +2%. All +0.4%.

*Notes:

-January through March for France, Germany; through February for the UK.

-Data from Aeroports de Paris, Statistisches Bundesamt, Civil Aviation Authority, and most excerpted from our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

Indices, Travel Stocks

The Baird/STR* Hotel Stock Index in April for US hotel companies was 3177 +15.6% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was -39.7%.

Travel Business Analyst indices for the same month, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:

-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ was at 139. Previous month: 125.

-The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ was at 123. Previous month: 122.

-‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ was World 129, Asia Pacific 46, Europe 119, US 223. Previous month: World 119, Asia Pacific 41, Europe 116, US 200.

-The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) was at 99. Previous month: 90.

-The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong, New York, Shanghai) was at 81. Previous month: 75.

*Notes:

-STR=Smith Travel Research.

-The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at March 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Travel Industry Data News, May 4 – 8.

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FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, May 4 – 8.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

WTO 2020 forecast

8 May 2020

The WTO* forecasts all-2020 visitor arrivals (what it terms ‘international tourism’) minus 60-80%. Other data/forecasts:

-Details: World -22% Q1 2020, against +4% all-2019; AsPac -35% +4%; Europe -19% +4%; Americas -15% +2%.

-Fall in Q1 visitor spend (what WTO terms ‘exports’) -US$80bn. It also reports that figure for only March. Our database shows annual total US$1.5tn, so a monthly average US$122bn, but normally around US$100bn monthly in Q1.

-March visitor arrivals -57%.

-WTO’s 2020 forecast-falls are based on three different scenarios: 1, gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions in early July, -58%; 2, same but in early September, -70%; 3, same but in early December, -78%.

-Fall in 2020: visitor arrivals, minus 0.85-1.1bn; visitor spend minus US$0.91-1.2tn.

-Direct ‘tourism’  jobs at risk 100-120mn. Unclear how WTO measures this, as some travel-industry jobs include not just those related to the inbound visitor business but also, say, domestic and outbound.

WTO also asked some managers in the travel business to forecast:

-Q1: When do you expect tourism demand in your destination will start to recover? Contradiction with other data, some of which comments just on the inbound visitor business, and some of which are unclear.

-Q2: When do you expect international demand for your destination will start to recover? Different from Q1 in that this seems to be for the inbound visitor business.

-Selected findings, Q1: May-Jun (domestic 14%, intl 3%); Jul-Sep (45%, 24%); Oct-Nov (25%, 34%); 2021 (15%, 39%).

-Q2: May-Jun (AsPac 4%, Europe 2%, Americas 0 %); Jul-Sep (26%, 28%, 10%); Oct-Nov (31%, 31%, 40%); 2021 (39%, 39%, 50%).

*Notes:

-WTO (World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO), is a lobby group for the travel business.

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Travel business updates

7 May 2020

[] The Air Asia group Q1 seats sold 18.7mn -17.4%. This is our calculation of the total; AA does not show a combined total.

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] Travel Mole reports April casino gaming revenue in Macau was US$94mn -97% (quoted in US$), YTD -68.7% (total not given).

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] Our counts* on selected UK-registered airline companies shows percentage UK traffic growth*: British Airways +1.2%; Easyjet +26.7%; FlyBe -5.6%; Jet2 +18.3%; Norwegian Air +28.3%; Thomas Cook -24.0%; TUI Airways +9.4%; Virgin Atlantic +6.1%; Wizz Air +812.7% (sic).

*Notes:

-Our processing of CAA data. Seat sales 2019. Names shown may not be full formal name. Includes all airlines registered under relevant group.

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] STR* reports on US hotels 28 April – 4 May 2019: occupancy -58.5% to 28.6%, average room rate -44.0% to US$74.72.

*Notes:

-STR = Smith Travel Research; despite that name, a hotel-research company.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those outside the hotel business.

[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in April/May for US-based travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

-YTD. 1. -38.33%. 2. -43.07%. 3. -40.85%. 4. -36.79%. 5. -38.05%.

In 7-day periods through:

-May 3. 1. -81.8%. 2. -89.5%. 3. -91.1%. 4. -74.0%. 5. -82.5%.

-April 26. 1. -91.5%. 2. -94.8%. 3. -95.9%. 4. -88.5%. 5. -91.3%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

TBA Tracking: Travel traffic AsPac/Europe/US/world; Visitor arrivals AsPac; Airports AsPac

6 May 2020

Travel Traffic, Asia Pacific, Europe, US, world

Our ‘TBA Travel Industry Indices’ from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows the following monthly traffic growths*.

-World. 2020: Jan +2.9%E. 2019: Dec +4.4%P; Nov +3.3%; Oct +1.1%; Sep +1.6%; Aug +1.9%.

-Asia Pacific. 2020: Jan +3.6%E. 2019: Dec +4.5%P; Nov +5.2%; Oct +4.5%; Sep +4.3%; Aug +2.9%.

-Europe. 2020: Jan +1.7%E. 2019: Dec +3.5%P; Nov +3.2%; Oct +1.7%; Sep +2.4%; Aug +3.0%.

-US. 2020: Jan +3.1%E. 2019: Dec +5.4%P; Nov +1.7%; Oct +2.4%; Sep +2.5%; Aug +2.7%.

*Notes:

-Aggregates of airline seats sold, airline RPKs, airport passengers, hotel occupancies, resident departures, travel agency sales, visitor arrivals.

-Percentage change over previous year; E=estimate, P=provisional.

Visitor arrivals in Asia Pacific, latest

A brief ‘main-points’ review of latest visitor-arrival counts*, growth only, usually for larger destinations:

-Australia +5%, Bali -0.3%, Hong Kong -72%, India -22%, Japan -51%, Korea -47%, Maldives +1%, Singapore -23%, Thailand -20%, Vietnam -18%.

-Selected destinations outside Asia Pacific: UK +3%, US -27%.

*Notes:

-January through February. Currently, a month makes a big difference, so those counts through March are India, Japan, Korea, US; through December for UK.

-Data from various sources, mainly WTO, DMOs, government departments, and most excerpted from our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

Airports in Asia Pacific

A brief ‘main-points’ review of latest YTD* airport-passenger throughputs*, growth only, usually for larger airports:

Main/significant airports: Bangkok Suvarnabhumi -32%, Delhi +7%, Hong Kong -56%, Mumbai +3%, Seoul Incheon -42%, Singapore -1%, Sydney -7%, Tokyo Narita -26%.

Selected airports outside Asia Pacific: London LHR -18%, New York JFK +2%.

*Notes:

-January through March. Currently, a month makes a big difference, so those counts only through February are Delhi, Mumbai, Singapore, Sydney; through December for New York.

-We collect most data directly from airports or relevant aviation authority.

-Most excerpted from our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index

5 May 2020

Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 90 in March. Previous month 137.

Comments:

-Not surprisingly, all of our seven stocks fell.

-Also not a surprise is that all fell faster than their local stockmarket – because the travel business has probably been hit hardest.

-Our analysis this month stops there – as all has been overwhelmed by the covid coronavirus.

*Notes: NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech. The Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and four in the US – one of which, cTrip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for cTrip, end-2016 for Trivago.

 

Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-20

Company Price,local currency   Growth┼,% NVTT* index
Mar 20 Feb 20 Jan 20 Dec 19 Dec 18 Dec 15 stock market Company All
Amadeus 43.2 62.5 70.8 72.8 60.8 40.7 -30.9 -23.0 131 145
Booking╪ 1345 1729 1831 2054 1722 1275 -22.2 -14.0 118 131
cTrip 22.5 34.9 34.9 34.9 27.1 46.8 -25.9 -19.7 48 53
eDreams 1.85 3.67 4.42 4.27 2.38 1.90 -49.6 -23.0 112 124
Expedia 56 96 108 108 113 124 -41.4 -19.7 66 73
Lastminute 21.5 35.8 44.4 46.0 17.5 13.1 -39.9 -7.7 144 160
Trivago 1.46 1.82 2.63 2.62 5.63 na -19.8 -19.7 12 14

Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed 2018; was Priceline. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.

 

TBA Tracking: Market Monitor, May

4 May 2020

An extract from the Market Monitor in current issues WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst – which also includes monthly growth data for principal travel companies in the three regions. Percentage change unless noted otherwise. E=estimate, P=provisional, TBA=Travel Business Analyst.

-World airline stocks index, on 100: 2020: Mar 122; Feb 170; Jan 202. TBA.

-World airport passengers, intl: 2020: Jan +2.7%. 2019: Dec +4.9%; Nov +2.7%. ACI.

-World air traffic, total RPKs: 2020: Feb -14.1%; Jan +2.4%. 2019: Dec +4.5%. IATA.

-World air traffic, intl RPKs: 2020: Feb -10.1%; Jan +2.5%. 2019: Dec +3.8%. IATA.

-World hotel occupancy, pts: 2020: Jan -2.8. 2019: Dec +1.8; Nov +1.6. TBA.

-World hotel rooms planned (new system): 2020: Jan +3.5%. 2019: Nov +26.8%; Jul +21.3%. STR/TBA.

-World hotel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Mar 130; Feb 176; Jan 191. TBA.

-World travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Mar 119; Feb 176; Jan 203. TBA.

-World travel-tech stocks index, on 100: 2020: Mar 93; Feb 137; Jan 156. Net Value.

-World visitor arrivals: 2019: Dec +2.3%; Nov +2.9%; Oct +3.2%. WTO.

-AsPac airlines seat sales: 2020: Jan +0.5%. 2019: Dec +2.7%; Nov +3.0%. AAPA.

-AsPac airport passengers, intl: 2020: Jan +1.0%. 2019: Dec +7.6%; Nov +2.3%. ACI.

-AsPac air traffic, total RPKs: 2020: Feb -41.3%; Jan +0.4%. 2019: Dec +3.5%. IATA.

-AsPac air traffic, intl RPKs: 2020: Feb -30.4%; Jan +2.5%. 2019: Dec +3.9%. IATA.

-AsPac hotel occupancy, pts: 2020: Jan -7.1. 2019: Dec +0.6; Nov +0.9. TBA.

-AsPac hotel rooms planned (new system): 2020: Jan +4.4%. 2019: Nov +20.7%; Jul +27.0%. STR TBA.

-AsPac outbound travel, estimate: 2019: Dec +3.2%; Nov +3.0%; Oct +3.2%. TBA.

-AsPac travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Mar 41; Feb 54; Jan 69. TBA.

-AsPac visitor arrivals: 2019: Dec +1.3%; Nov +1.7%; Oct +2.1%. TBA/WTO.

-Europe airlines seat sales: 2019: Dec total +3.4%, FSAs +1.7%, NFAs +5.5%. TBA.

-Europe airport passengers, intl: 2020: Jan +3.6%. 2019: Dec +4.4%; Nov +3.1%. ACI.

-Europe air traffic, total RPKs: 2020: Feb +0.7%; Jan +1.6%. 2019: Dec +2.5%. IATA.

-Europe air traffic, intl RPKs: 2020: Feb +0.2%; Jan +1.6%. 2019: Dec +2.6%. IATA.

-Europe hotel occupancy, pts: 2020: Jan -1.6. 2019: Dec +4.5; Nov +3.9. TBA.

-Europe hotel rooms planned (new system): 2020: Jan +12.2%. 2019: Nov +44.3%; Jul +52.4%. STR TBA.

-Europe travel stocks index, on 100: 2020: Mar 116; Feb 172; Jan 208. TBA.

-Europe visitor arrivals: 2019: Dec +2.3%; Nov +3.5%; Oct +3.8%. WTO.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

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