FOXTROTS*
Travel Industry Data News, March 1-5.
From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com
Selected market indicators, latest
5 March 2021
On the first Friday of every month, we show here a selection from an indicative 10 measures. Extracted from Market Monitor in the current issues of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. Percentage change.
[] Germany visitor arrivals YT-Dec -68.2%.
[] Lufthansa seat sales, group, YT-Dec -74.9%.
[] Singapore Airlines seat sales, group, Jan -97.7%.
[] Singapore visitor arrivals Jan -98.6%.
[] US hotel occupancy Jan +7.1%. STR.
[] US visitor arrivals, overseas YT-Dec -81.2%.
Travel business updates
5 March 2021
[] Finaria* reports on AirBnB (ABB):
-January bookings were 70% of pre-covid levels. Finaria does not say when ‘pre-covid’ was – usually it would be December 2019 or January 2020.
-In early March ABB’s market value was US$110.71bn; Expedia’s was US$20bn, Booking US$93bn, Trip Advisor US$5bn; Finaria rounded.
-In April 2020, ABB’s bookings were -72%. We do not know the relevance of this period.
-‘By June 2020’ domestic reservations (presumed US domestic) had doubled to reach 80%. We cannot calculate the value of this.
-Stays within 300km from home accounted for 56% of bookings, up from 31%. Period not known.
-By end January, bookings had recovered to 70% of pre-covid levels. Note as above.
*Notes:
-Finaria is an Italy-based financial trading company.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
[] PCW* reports on Latin America:
-Gross travel bookings, US$57.4bn +3% in 2019, ‘forecast’ to be US$21.7bn -62% in 2020. As this report was released this month, we assume that is PCW’s estimate.
-2021 forecast +88%, which we calculate would take it to US$40.8bn.
-Argentina ‘tourism’ will ‘rebound when travel with Brazil resumes’; we do not know the precise meaning of this. Brazil online share to reach 50% in 2023. Chile to return to 2018 level in 2023 when it reaches US$5bn. Colombia to recover to pre-covid levels in 2024, Mexico in 2023. Different measures by PCW, with no additional clarification.
-Airlines and hotels forecast to be 84% share in 2020. See note above on 2020.
-Forecasts travel bookings. Best outlook: 2021 $55.2bn, 2022 $66.2bn, 2023 $74.2bn, 2024 $83.1bn. Medium 41.0bn 51.0bn 57.0bn 62.0bn. Worst 31.0bn 46.5bn 51.2bn 56.3bn.
-Market share. Mexico 48%, Brazil 27%, Colombia 12%, Chile 10%, Argentina 2%. Presumed to be 2020.
-Online market share. Mexico 46%, Brazil 31%, Colombia 11%, Chile 10%, Argentina 2%. Presumed to be 2020.
*Notes:
-PCW = Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
Travel business updates
4 March 2021
[] Lufthansa Group in 2020:
-Revenue US$16.6bn (at US$1 to €0.82), which we calculate is -62.6%.
-Operating loss -US$6.71bn; previous-year profit US$2.44bn.
-Capacity (available seat kilometres) 31% of 2019, which we calculate means -69%.
-Seats sold 36.4mn -74.9%.
-Seat load factor 63% -19.3pts.
-Capacity forecast this year 40-50% of 2019, which we calculate would be 43.9-54.9bn -50.0-60.0% against 2020.
-Capacity forecast 2025 to be 90% of 2019, which we calculate would be 98.8bn -10.0% against 2020.
[] Private Fly reported +40% in France domestic bookings in February. No data given to put this in context.
[] Research & Markets* (RM), a company, reports on India hotels:
-In FY2020*, ARR was US$75.50 (at US$1 to Rs72.3), against US$78.44 in FY2017, and is forecast to be US$87.04 by FY2025. It puts 2021-25 annual average growth rate at +2.49%.
-RM names one hotel category as ‘new-age hotels’. No definition is given but it puts the new-age share of rooms at 6%.
*Notes:
-RM does not define the Fiscal Year; India’s is usually Apr-Mar. FY 2020 would therefore be through March 2021 – in other words, we are still in FY 2020. We therefore cannot clarify the periods that RM is covering.
-We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.
-At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.
Travel plans – China, Germany, US
3 March 2021
ITBB* and Statistica* (together, ITBS) report on travel behaviour in China, Germany, US:
-*70% are ‘thinking about’ ‘private’ trips this year.
-*Planning at least one trip this year – 66% in China, 37% in Germany, 42% in the US.
-*Spend. 35% in China, 25% in Germany, 25% in the US ‘believe they will spend’ more on travelling over the next 12 months than the previous 12 months.
-*50% in China, ‘think they [will] travel more on an ongoing basis’ after the covid pandemic ‘has passed’, 17% in Germany, 25% in the US.
-56% in China of those not planning to travel this year feel uneasy about taking trips during the covid pandemic, 50% in Germany, 34% in the US.
-45% in China give travel restrictions as their reason for staying at home, 23% in Germany, 21% in the US.
-*42% in China ‘take [beach holidays] into consideration’ in 34% in Germany, 36% in the US.
-*City breaks are most important for 49% in China. But VFR (visiting family or friends) is first for 37% in Germany, 42% in the US.
-*86% of ‘private’ travellers in China plan to stay in hotels, 42% in Germany, 56% in the US.
-16% in China plan to stay overnight with family or friends, 33% in Germany, 33% in the US.
-*50% in China believe their travel behaviour will change ‘long-term’, 35% in Germany, 38% in the US. Reasons given were environmental considerations (47% in China), covid (83% in China, 83% in Germany, 64% in the US).
-Among those who said their travel behaviour will change ‘long-term’, 88% in China, 76% in Germany, 77% in the US agree that “I will take more vacation in my country” (sic).
-Among those planning trips this year 29% in China plan to go ‘abroad’, 61% in Germany, 15% in the US.
-51% in China plan business trips this year, 27% in Germany, 34% in the US.
-*63% in China, 65% in Germany, 66% in the US agree that “I will take fewer business trips”.
-*91% in China, 61% in Germany, 68% in the US agree that “I will take more nature/outdoor trips”.
*Notes:
-Our Notes on this topic are too long to be readily shown here. Full details, usually those marked here with an asterisk (*) are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.
We have good news for IATA
2 March 2021
A month can be a long time in the airline business. IATA* reports sizeable falls in the value of airline shares in January. It shows -6.0% against end-2020. Our TBA-Tracking shows similar, -6.7%.
But there was a bump in February. IATA has not yet reported for that month, but we show +23.3% against January.
For other findings, see table.
Commentary:
-IATA shows its Index for World, 88.8, plus the three main regions. We calculate for World only – showing 138 in January, 170 in February. IATA’s 100 base is January 2014; our 100 base is earlier, December 2006. We plan to make the adjustment to the later date to match IATA.
-For end-January (over end-December) prices in the regions, there are differences between IATA growth and our growth, but not substantial.
-There are sizeable differences for the longer-term comparison. But IATA compares against ‘one-year’, which we assume is end-January 2020. Our comparison is with end-December-2019, as some stock prices in Asia Pacific started to show covid-related falls in January 2020.
IATA’s comparison-period would theoretically show a lesser fall. Yet IATA shows -24% and we show -10%. Unfortunately, we have no explanation for this – except the general one that we presumably have different airlines in our measures.
*Notes: IATA = International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.
Airline share prices
IATA | TBA | ||||||
Item | Index | Growth,% | Growth,% | ||||
Jan 29 | Jan 29 | Feb 26 | |||||
World | 88.8 | -6.0 | -29.5 | -6.7 | -32.3 | 23.3 | -14.4 |
Asia Pacific | 74.4 | -4.1 | -23.9 | -1.6 | -10.3 | 7.1 | -3.4 |
Europe | 77.3 | -9.3 | -27.1 | -10.2 | -44.3 | 18.9 | -33.5 |
North America | 110.0 | -4.3 | -31.2 | -6.5 | -46.0 | 27.8 | -30.7 |
Notes: | NA | 1month | 1 year | 1month | end-’19 | 1month | end-’19 |
Source: IATA (International Air Transport Association), TBA (Travel Business Analyst).
TBA Tracking: February travel stocks; the long climb-back starts?
1 March 2021
Commentary (category numbers below):
-We have added a new sector now tracked monthly – all (world) airlines, hotels, Others. See below.
-Also added is AirBnB to hotel sector; it was already in our travel-tech sector, and remains there also.
-AsPac airlines above their end-2019 prices? Yes, but misleading because includes big growth for Jet India, technically not an airline because it is not flying – although some indicators that it could relaunch. Without JI, prices against end-2019 were -22%.
-China is no longer the ‘star’ this year. Its travel shares grew +2% last month, compared with +20% for the rest of AsPac. But China is just ahead of end-2019 prices, compared with -9% for AsPac.
-US did well; no stock fell. Europe almost as good; only one stock (our ‘no-hoper’ Norwegian) fell.
-Performance for airlines in Europe – full-service or no-frills – was broadly similar. For example ICAG +34%, Easy +35%; Lufthansa and Ryan both +16%.
-Travel-tech looking good. 6/8 now above their end-2019, prices, +14% overall. The laggards are Amadeus (surprise) and Lastminute.
-Investors like cruisers, but in general, they still have much further to go to return to end-2019 prices – compared with other US Others.
-Air New Zealand flat, and airline the furthest (along with Air Asia) from post-covid recovery. But isn’t NZ a covid star? Go figure.
-In China, comfortably above their pre-covid prices are Beijing Hotels, Jinjiang Hotels, Spring Airlines.
Selected category-specifics (compared with previous month):
-Giant airlines, airline groups. China Southern +4%, Delta +26%, ICAG +34/38% (London/Madrid), Lufthansa +16%.
-No-frills-airlines. Air Asia +31%, Easyjet +35%, Norwegian -5%, Ryanair +16%, Southwest +32%, Spring China +4%, Wizz +22%.
-Giant hotel groups. Accor +24%, InterContinental +11%, Marriott +27%.
-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin -3%, Shangri-La +20%.
-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM +32%, Sands +30%, Wynn +32%.
-Planemakers. Airbus +15%, Boeing +9%, Embraer +39%.
-Big airports, airport groups. ADP +11%, Fraport +17%, Guangzhou -4%.
-Cruisers. Carnival +43%, RCC +43%, Star +85% (sic, but HK$0.28 to US$0.51).
-Travel-tech heavies. Amadeus +6%, Booking +20%, Expedia +30%, Trip +24%.
-No-hopers. Hertz flat, Jet India +70% (sic, on hopes of restart), Norwegian -5%.
-Big stockmarkets. Frankfurt +3%, Hong Kong +2%, London +1%, Tokyo +5%, US (average of our five +3%).
Numbers – Sectors:
-World (travel-related stocks). Compared with previous month: +17%. Compared with end-2019: -16%.
-World. Airlines +23%, Hotels +19%, Others +26%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -14%, Hotels -8%, Others -12%.
-Regions, all sectors. Compared with previous month: Asia Pacific +20%, Europe +20%, US +28%. Compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -9%, Europe -25%, US -1%.
-Asia Pacific, excluding China. Compared with previous month: Airlines +21%, Hotels +10%, Others +29%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines +3%, Hotels -13%, Others -19%.
-Europe. Compared with previous month: Airlines +19%, Hotels +24%, Others +18%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -34%, Hotels -11%, Others -29%.
-US. Compared with previous month: Airlines +30%, Hotels +24%, Others +30%. Compared with end-2019: Airlines -13%, Hotels -1%, Others +11%.
-China +2%; compared with end-2019, +1%. China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) +7%; compared with end-2019, +5%.
-Rest-of world. Compared with previous month: +16%. Compared with end-2019: -46%.
-Travel-tech +31%. Compared with end-2019: +20%.
-Stockmarkets +2%. Compared with end-2019: +9%.
Numbers – Indices:
-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 206, Asia Pacific 52, Europe 171, US 395. Index previous month: World 172, Asia Pacific 46, Europe 149, US 320. Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 100. Index previous month 90. Index end-2019 105.
-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 127. Index previous month 135. Index end-2019 170.
Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Our February issues include annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.
The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.
*Fox – sly. Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning. Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.