Travel Industry Data News, January 27 – February 7.

FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, January 27 – February 7.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Travel business updates

7 February 2020

[] Coronavirus effect on hotels in China. STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports for 14-26 January:

-Hotel occupancy fell -75% in China.
-Occupancy was 70% on 14 January, but fell each day after that, to 17% on 26 January.

-Average room rate grew 61% to US$107.10 (Y754) on 26 January.

-Tourism Economics, an STR partner, forecasts a 28% fall in arrivals in China from the US this year – 4.6mn fewer hotel roomnights, -US$5.8bn less visitor spend.
[] Dubai Business Events, the city-state’s convention bureau, won 301 bids in 2019 for events – forecast to generate 150,095 delegates, 620,000 roomnights.

DBE forecasts the total is now 1.03mn. Period not given; we would expect some as long as eight years forward.

DBE submitted 595 +7% bids in 2019 – which we calculate is a high 50% success rate.

[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) reports December RPKs +4.5%.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels:

-26 January – 1 February: occupancy +1.7% to 57.6%, average room rate +2.2% to US$127.94.

-19-25 January: occupancy -0.3% to 57.8%, average room rate +0.6% to US$125.07.

 

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks

6 February 2020

The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in January for US hotel companies was 4863 +7.7% (over previous month).

The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ for January, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 191.

The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ for January, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 202.

The ‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ for January, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows: World 199, Asia Pacific 58, Europe 206, US 333.

The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in January, from the current edition of our monthly Net Value report, was at 156.

The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong and New York, as well as Shanghai), in January from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 88.

Notes: The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at February 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

 

TBA Tracking: Travel Traffic Indices, Asia Pacific, Europe, US, world

5 February 2020

Our ‘TBA Travel Industry Indices’ from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows the following monthly traffic growths*.

Asia Pacific

2019: Oct +4.5%E; Sep +4.3%P; Aug +2.9%.

Europe

2019: Oct +1.7%E; Sep +2.4%P; Aug +3.0%.

US

2019: Oct +2.4%E; Sep +2.5%P; Aug +2.7%.

World

2019: Oct +1.1%E; Sep +1.6%P; Aug +1.9%.

*Notes:

-Airline seats sold & RPKs, airport passengers, hotel occupancies, resident departures, travel agency US$ sales, visitor arrivals.

-Percentage change over previous year; E=estimate, P=provisional.

 

TBA Tracking: January travel stocks; debris everywhere

4 February 2020

Travel stock prices (Asia Pacific, Europe, US) in January. Airlines: biggest growth, Wizz +8%; biggest fall, Air Asia -25%. Hotels: NH Hoteles +11%, Jinjiang -18%. Tech: eDreams +4%, Booking -11%. China travel stocks (new): Hainan -13% (sic), Beijing Hotels -25%. Others: Amex +4%, Genting -21%.

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Korean +15%; biggest fall, SAS -24%. Hotels: Wynn +15%, Peninsula -7%. Tech: Trivago +12%, cTrip 0.0%. China travel stocks (new): Jinjiang +19%, Guangzhou Airport +4% (sic). Others: Carnival +13%, Boeing -11%.

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 203, Asia Pacific 69, Europe 208, US 333.

TBA China Travel Stocks Index (new; quotes from China, Hong Kong, US): 88; previous month 105.

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 156; previous month 160.

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Istanbul +4%; biggest fall Shanghai -10%. Previous month: biggest growth Istanbul +11%; biggest fall Australia -2%.

Commentary:

-Where to start? Debris everywhere.

-Most hit by the coronavirus, more or less in proportion to the distance from where it started, in China.

-All 24 of the travel stocks we track monthly in Asia Pacific fell! Plus, of course, all 11 of those in China we track.

-Air Asia is usually a favoured company – of the public if not always investors – but its heavy fall is probably primarily related to concerns that back around 2010, the group’s top-2 executives may have taken bribes to buy Airbus aircraft. Both deny this.

-The ‘best-performing’ travel stock in China fell -13%! Ironically, that was the Hainan Airlines stock, which has been running bad for a year now.

-US travel stocks also did badly – 17 of our 28 fell or did not change (an unusually-high four of those). Presumably that was the result of a cocktail of bad news – coronavirus, US trade wars and verbal venom, and nasty US politics (which occasionally hurts the economic sentiment).

-Still-troubled Boeing was -2%, but that is better than many ‘Others’ in the US, although not so good as Airbus, its rival in Europe, +2%.

-In Europe, just behind Wizz was the world’s biggest no-frills-airline, Ryanair, at +7%. This might not mean good thoughts for NFAs (Easy and Air Asia fell, although Southwest was +2%), but for their customer  base. Which is mainly 3rd- and 4th-freedom travellers, and so away from coronavirus (apart, of course, for AA). However, we doubt that many investors are that travel-business-smart.

-India’s zombie airline Jet was -15% – matching the market. Presumably, coronavirus cannot have a great effect on airline that does not fly.

-Travel tech stocks were less damaged – only 3 down, plus 3 up, 2 unchanged.

-Some big names fell big. Thai -18%, TUI -18%, China Southern -17%, Lufthansa -16%, Air-France/KLM -15%, United -15%, Carnival Cruises -14%.

-Most of our 25 stockmarkets fell – only 5 grew, albeit 3 of them less than +1%. Including a fall for mighty New York; our composite count of five US indices was -1%.

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. This month’s editions include annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

 

Travel business updates

3 February 2020

[] Greece’s DMO reports December air arrivals +7.8%, YTD +3.9%. Bank of Greece all arrivals November +18.2%, YTD +4.0%; spend -0.8%, YTD +13.0%.

[] A Technavio report on India includes:

-Travel services market AAGR (annual average growth rate) of 19% over 2020-24, which it puts at US$56bn (quoted in US$; risky given current substantial changes in exchange rates). Technavio does not define ‘travel services’; we believe it is spend on travel, but possibly only inbound visitor spend.

-82% of the ‘share’ from the ‘online market’. We read this as 82% of the $56bn.

-2020 growth forecast at 18.1%.

-Visitor growth ‘considerable…in recent years’. Our database shows an estimated +3% in 2019, +4% 2018, +15% 2017, +10% 2016, +5% 2015; we believe growth in three of those five years was not ‘considerable’, although that is impossible to define.

-It attributes this to travel for business, leisure, sports. We do not know if this means other sectors – such as MICE, religious, VFR – did not grow.

-‘Indian business travel spend’ forecast to grow at a 12% AAGR. This may not be domestic spend because Technavio explains that it is a result of more companies ‘conducting business visits to India’.

-At press time, Technavio had not answered our request for clarifications.

[] Airline ancillary revenue* estimated to have been US$109.5bn +17.9% in 2019, according to Car Trawler and Idea Works (CTIW). However, as this figure was reported before year-end, we assume it was an estimate.

CTIW put the total at US$22.6bn in 2010, which we calculate means a +19.2% AAGR (annual average growth rate) since then.

Major US airlines earned 15.2% of their revenue from ancillaries in 2019 (thus another estimate). They report 14.2% in 2018.

CTIW add that some growth is from better reporting of frequent flyer programs and co-branded credit cards.

Total frequent flyer program revenue is given for Alaska, American, Delta, Southwest, United. We do not know why this group, although they could be the largest. Data only for 2018, when CTIW says it was US$18.3bn +56.4%.

*Notes:

-Ancillary revenue (in the travel business usually used only for airlines although it could be used for other travel sectors) is generated by extra activities and services – for airlines this would be anything in addition to the air fare. Activities for airlines could be commission from hotel bookings, sale of frequent flyer points to partners. A big problem for measurement is that some airlines – usually no-frills-airlines but now often all types of airlines – charge extra for baggage transport and food (= ancillary), and others do not.

-At press time, CTIW had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

Hotel markets: Japan, Spain

31 January 2020

Research & Markets* (RM), a company, reports on hotel markets in Japan and Spain:

[] Japan.

-It will be US$26.8bn (quoted in US$) in 2025; growth not given. RM does not explain what this figure is, but RM’s comments indicate it is turnover.

  It credits this to a growing inbound visitor market. In fact, the domestic market is 80% of total hotel business; RM makes no comment on that, even adding that continued growth from inbound visitors is driving development of new hotels.

-In nine cities, not named, RM forecasts for 2019-21 but gives data only for ‘over the past year’, which we assume means 2019 – although the year had not finished.

-It says rooms opening grew 2.5x from 30,000 to 80,000; period not clear. This appears to be not growth, but actual growth of 50,000 rooms. We find this too low, but RM does not give enough details for us to confirm.

-RM reports that Japan targets 40mn visitors this year and 60mn ‘by’ 2030. That would be a +4.6% AAGR if 2020-29 and +4.1% if 2020-30. We calculate that over the past 10 years AAGR was +16.8%.

[] Spain.

-It will be US$24.1bn (quoted in US$) in 2025; growth not given. RM does not explain what this figure is, but RM’s comments indicate it is turnover.

-In 2018, Spain counted 82.6mn visitors, 3rd after France 90mn, US 81mn (both WTO rounded); growths not given. Our estimates for 2019 are about 83.5mn +1%, 90.2mn +1%, 78.9mn -1%.

-In spend, Spain was second after the US; believed also to be 2018. (Our database for 2018 shows Spain US$81.5bn +3.5%, US US$214.5bn +1.8%; growths in 2019 about +3.1%, -0.5%.) The reason that France is lower (#3 in our database) is because has a higher share of transit visitors, thus shorter stay.

-RM notes ‘by the year 2019 to 2020, Spain will open more hotels’. We presume it means in 2019 and 2020. For Madrid it reports 3/854 hotels/rooms, Barcelona 3/422 rooms. Once again this looks small – for Barcelona 210 rooms/year? (Our database indicates around 450/60,000 hotels/rooms in the city.)

*Notes:

-We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.

-At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index

30 January 2020

Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 151 in November. Previous month 156.

Comments:

-Last month we reported that results were ‘getting better, just about’. Whoops.

-We have seen Trivago fall almost more often than growing. But this month it fell one-third! It is now only 20% of its market debut price end-2016.

-The other big fall was not quite as bad, -26%, but this was Expedia! If there is the ‘first’ OTA – in the sense of size – that is probably Expedia.

-The reasons are known – the company’s top-2 executives fired because of a disagreement over direction. So investors are not yet clear on the new direction, and of course do not know if the change is the right one. Thus the fall.

-Perhaps many investors piled into cTrip, which grew +6%.

*Notes: NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech. The Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US – one of which, cTrip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for cTrip, end-2016 for Trivago.

 

TBA Tracking: Airports in Europe

29 January 2020

A brief ‘main-points’ review of latest YTD* airport-passenger throughputs*, growth only, usually for larger airports:

Main airports. Lots of Ones – Amsterdam +1%, Barcelona +5%, Berlin (two) +3%, Brussels (two) -1%, Copenhagen flat, Frankfurt (two) +1%, Istanbul (two) +1%, London (five) +1%, Madrid +7%, Milan (2/3) +11%, Moscow (three) +6%, Paris (2/3) +1%, Rome (two) +1%, Zurich +1%.

‘Low-fare airports’ (LFAp*): Berlin Schonefeld -10%, Brussels Charleroi +3%, Dublin +5%, Frankfurt Hahn -26%, Geneva +1%, London Luton +8%, London Stansted +1%, Milan Bergamo +7%, Palma +2%, Paris Orly -4%, Rome Ciampino +1%.

*Notes:

-Generally through November, so not much change likely for all-2019.

-Data mainly from ACI (Airports Council International), some directly from airports, and most excerpted from our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

-LFAp – those with sizeable portion (broadly, 25%) of no-frills-airline traffic.

 

Travel business updates

28 January 2020

[] Global Data*, a data and analytics company, forecasts for France and Japan:

–France 99.6mn visitors in 2022; AAGR (annual average growth rate) not shown. GD adds that the official visitor target was 100mn for this year.

–Japan arrivals AAGR will be +11.3%. Period not clear; we believe for 2019-22.

GD forecasts arrivals total will be 1.7bn in 2022. This is so wrong that we cannot begin to guess what GD is showing. To give an idea, as the 2019 total was about 32mn, GD’s forecast would be a 50-fold growth!

*Notes:

-We have found in other reports that Global Data sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on:

–Middle East hotels in 2019: occupancy +2.3% to 66.2%, average room rate -7.2% to US$143.70.

–US hotels 12-18 January: occupancy +1.1% to 58.9%, average room rate +5.2% to US$130.99.

–US hotels in 2019: occupancy flat at 66.1%, average room rate +1.0% to US$131.21.

–US hotels in December: occupancy +0.6% to 54.4%, average room rate +2.0% to US$126.84.

 

Australia counts costs

27 January 2020

Travel Mole reports:

-Australia’s ‘tourism industry’ (we understand this is only the visitor business, domestic and international) has been allocated an aid package worth US$52.4mn (at US$1 to A$1.45) following the recent fires in the country.
-Forward bookings from international markets down -40%. No further details.
-Domestic market bookings down -70%. No further details.
-Financial ‘damage’ (not otherwise qualified) to the industry US$690mn, but ‘may be’ much larger, US$3.1bn, by end-2020. The Economist reports this same figure as lost sales, adding that it represents 1% of annual sales.
-US$13.8mn for an ad campaign. We don’t know if this is included in the $52.4mn.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, January 27-31.

FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, January 27-31.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Hotel markets: Japan, Spain

31 January 2020

Research & Markets* (RM), a company, reports on hotel markets in Japan and Spain:

[] Japan.

-It will be US$26.8bn (quoted in US$) in 2025; growth not given. RM does not explain what this figure is, but RM’s comments indicate it is turnover.

  It credits this to a growing inbound visitor market. In fact, the domestic market is 80% of total hotel business; RM makes no comment on that, even adding that continued growth from inbound visitors is driving development of new hotels.

-In nine cities, not named, RM forecasts for 2019-21 but gives data only for ‘over the past year’, which we assume means 2019 – although the year had not finished.

-It says rooms opening grew 2.5x from 30,000 to 80,000; period not clear. This appears to be not growth, but actual growth of 50,000 rooms. We find this too low, but RM does not give enough details for us to confirm.

-RM reports that Japan targets 40mn visitors this year and 60mn ‘by’ 2030. That would be a +4.6% AAGR if 2020-29 and +4.1% if 2020-30. We calculate that over the past 10 years AAGR was +16.8%.

[] Spain.

-It will be US$24.1bn (quoted in US$) in 2025; growth not given. RM does not explain what this figure is, but RM’s comments indicate it is turnover.

-In 2018, Spain counted 82.6mn visitors, 3rd after France 90mn, US 81mn (both WTO rounded); growths not given. Our estimates for 2019 are about 83.5mn +1%, 90.2mn +1%, 78.9mn -1%.

-In spend, Spain was second after the US; believed also to be 2018. (Our database for 2018 shows Spain US$81.5bn +3.5%, US US$214.5bn +1.8%; growths in 2019 about +3.1%, -0.5%.) The reason that France is lower (#3 in our database) is because has a higher share of transit visitors, thus shorter stay.

-RM notes ‘by the year 2019 to 2020, Spain will open more hotels’. We presume it means in 2019 and 2020. For Madrid it reports 3/854 hotels/rooms, Barcelona 3/422 rooms. Once again this looks small – for Barcelona 210 rooms/year? (Our database indicates around 450/60,000 hotels/rooms in the city.)

*Notes:

-We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.

-At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index

30 January 2020

Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 151 in November. Previous month 156.

Comments:

-Last month we reported that results were ‘getting better, just about’. Whoops.

-We have seen Trivago fall almost more often than growing. But this month it fell one-third! It is now only 20% of its market debut price end-2016.

-The other big fall was not quite as bad, -26%, but this was Expedia! If there is the ‘first’ OTA – in the sense of size – that is probably Expedia.

-The reasons are known – the company’s top-2 executives fired because of a disagreement over direction. So investors are not yet clear on the new direction, and of course do not know if the change is the right one. Thus the fall.

-Perhaps many investors piled into cTrip, which grew +6%.

*Notes: NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech. The Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US – one of which, cTrip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for cTrip, end-2016 for Trivago.

 

TBA Tracking: Airports in Europe

29 January 2020

A brief ‘main-points’ review of latest YTD* airport-passenger throughputs*, growth only, usually for larger airports:

Main airports. Lots of Ones – Amsterdam +1%, Barcelona +5%, Berlin (two) +3%, Brussels (two) -1%, Copenhagen flat, Frankfurt (two) +1%, Istanbul (two) +1%, London (five) +1%, Madrid +7%, Milan (2/3) +11%, Moscow (three) +6%, Paris (2/3) +1%, Rome (two) +1%, Zurich +1%.

‘Low-fare airports’ (LFAp*): Berlin Schonefeld -10%, Brussels Charleroi +3%, Dublin +5%, Frankfurt Hahn -26%, Geneva +1%, London Luton +8%, London Stansted +1%, Milan Bergamo +7%, Palma +2%, Paris Orly -4%, Rome Ciampino +1%.

*Notes:

-Generally through November, so not much change likely for all-2019.

-Data mainly from ACI (Airports Council International), some directly from airports, and most excerpted from our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

-LFAp – those with sizeable portion (broadly, 25%) of no-frills-airline traffic.

 

Travel business updates

28 January 2020

[] Global Data*, a data and analytics company, forecasts for France and Japan:

–France 99.6mn visitors in 2022; AAGR (annual average growth rate) not shown. GD adds that the official visitor target was 100mn for this year.

–Japan arrivals AAGR will be +11.3%. Period not clear; we believe for 2019-22.

GD forecasts arrivals total will be 1.7bn in 2022. This is so wrong that we cannot begin to guess what GD is showing. To give an idea, as the 2019 total was about 32mn, GD’s forecast would be a 50-fold growth!

*Notes:

-We have found in other reports that Global Data sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on:

–Middle East hotels in 2019: occupancy +2.3% to 66.2%, average room rate -7.2% to US$143.70.

–US hotels 12-18 January: occupancy +1.1% to 58.9%, average room rate +5.2% to US$130.99.

–US hotels in 2019: occupancy flat at 66.1%, average room rate +1.0% to US$131.21.

–US hotels in December: occupancy +0.6% to 54.4%, average room rate +2.0% to US$126.84.

 

Australia counts costs

27 January 2020

Travel Mole reports:

-Australia’s ‘tourism industry’ (we understand this is only the visitor business, domestic and international) has been allocated an aid package worth US$52.4mn (at US$1 to A$1.45) following the recent fires in the country.
-Forward bookings from international markets down -40%. No further details.
-Domestic market bookings down -70%. No further details.
-Financial ‘damage’ (not otherwise qualified) to the industry US$690mn, but ‘may be’ much larger, US$3.1bn, by end-2020. The Economist reports this same figure as lost sales, adding that it represents 1% of annual sales.
-US$13.8mn for an ad campaign. We don’t know if this is included in the $52.4mn.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

TBA Tracking: January travel stocks; debris everywhere

FOXTROTS*

 

TBA Tracking: January travel stocks; debris everywhere

Travel stock prices (Asia Pacific, Europe, US) in January.

Airlines: biggest growth, Wizz +8%; biggest fall, Air Asia -25%.

Hotels: NH Hoteles +11%, Jinjiang -18%.

Tech: eDreams +4%, Booking -11%.

China travel stocks (new): Hainan -13% (sic), Beijing Hotels -25%.

Others: Amex +4%, Genting -21%.

 

Previous month:

Airlines: biggest growth, Korean +15%; biggest fall, SAS -24%.

Hotels: Wynn +15%, Peninsula -7%.

Tech: Trivago +12%, cTrip 0.0%.

China travel stocks (new): Jinjiang +19%, Guangzhou Airport +4% (sic).

Others: Carnival +13%, Boeing -11%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 203, Asia Pacific 69, Europe 208, US 333.

 

TBA China Travel Stocks Index (new; quotes from China, Hong Kong, US): 88; previous month 105.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 156; previous month 160.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Istanbul +4%; biggest fall Shanghai -10%. Previous month: biggest growth Istanbul +11%; biggest fall Australia -2%.

 

Commentary:

-Where to start? Debris everywhere.

 

-Most hit by the coronavirus, more or less in proportion to the distance from where it started, in China.

 

-All 24 of the travel stocks we track monthly in Asia Pacific fell! Plus, of course, all 11 of those in China we track.

 

-Air Asia is usually a favoured company – of the public if not always investors – but its heavy fall is probably primarily related to concerns that back around 2010, the group’s top-2 executives may have taken bribes to buy Airbus aircraft. Both deny this.

 

-The ‘best-performing’ travel stock in China fell -13%! Ironically, that was the Hainan Airlines stock, which has been running bad for a year now.

 

-US travel stocks also did badly – 17 of our 28 fell or did not change (an unusually-high four of those). Presumably that was the result of a cocktail of bad news – coronavirus, US trade wars and verbal venom, and nasty US politics (which occasionally hurts the economic sentiment).

 

-Still-troubled Boeing was -2%, but that is better than many ‘Others’ in the US, although not so good as Airbus, its rival in Europe, +2%.

 

-In Europe, just behind Wizz was the world’s biggest no-frills-airline, Ryanair, at +7%. This might not mean good thoughts for NFAs (Easy and Air Asia fell, although Southwest was +2%), but for their customer  base. Which is mainly 3rd- and 4th-freedom travellers, and so away from coronavirus (apart, of course, for AA). However, we doubt that many investors are that travel-business-smart.

 

-India’s zombie airline Jet was -15% – matching the market. Presumably, coronavirus cannot have a great effect on airline that does not fly.

 

-Travel tech stocks were less damaged – only 3 down, plus 3 up, 2 unchanged.

 

-Some big names fell big. Thai -18%, TUI -18%, China Southern -17%, Lufthansa -16%, Air-France/KLM -15%, United -15%, Carnival Cruises -14%.

 

-Most of our 25 stockmarkets fell – only 5 grew, albeit 3 of them less than +1%. Including a fall for mighty New York; our composite count of five US indices was -1%.

 

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. This month’s editions include annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

 

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, January 20-24.

FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, January 20-24.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

PATA on Asia Pacific visitor counts

24 January 2020

PATA* (Pacific Asia Travel Association, a regional promotional body) forecasts:

-971mn visitor arrivals by 2024, AAGR (average annual growth rate) forecast to be +6.3% over 2019-24. Was +5.3% over 2014-19.
-Additional arrivals forecast to total 162mn over 2019-24. Was 256mn over 2014-19..

-Asia share of arrivals 77% ‘by 2024’ – which we understand is ‘in 2024’.

-Asia share of departures 68%. Period not shown; probably 2024.

*Notes:

-PATA=Pacific Asia Travel Association. PATA’s destinations include many not usually associated with Asia Pacific – such as Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, US, and sometimes Turkey (yes). PATA’s data should thus be read with that qualification in mind. PATA gives no support (including response to questions) to non-member subscription publications such as ours, and so we are unable to clarify what may be misleading.

-Usually, PATA tracks 46 destinations. This report notes 39 destinations; we do not know why.

-PATA has reported other data – such as growth without the total – but not actionable data, and so we have not shown these.

-The top-5 destinations, in order, are China, US, Hong Kong, Turkey, Macau. We have problems with all five. Turkey and US for us should not be included in an Asia Pacific travel study. And China, Hong Kong, Macau are all ‘China’ – a fact endorsed by PATA adding the moniker ‘SAR’ (Special Administrative Region, of China) for HK&M. Thus many of these ‘visitors’ are actually domestic travellers.

-PATA might be unwilling to make a change that would probably upset all three destinations – likely to ‘lose’ millions of visitors (50mn total?). Also, China not only likes to come top in any ranking, but dislikes even more being down-rated.

 

WTO on world visitor counts

23 January 2020

WTO (World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO, a loose lobby group for the travel business) reports on 2019 and forecasts for this year:

-1.5bn +4% arrivals in 2019, making it the 10th consecutive year of growth.

-The Middle East* fastest-growing at +8%. But negative events – wars, terrorism, etc – can make such big differences that analysis needs to consider this. For instance, with demonstrations already in Lebanon, 2020 looks likely to be at least a slowdown, if not a fall. That could slow the region.

-Americas (+2%). Total, share, not given.

-Asia Pacific +5%. Total, share, not given.

-Europe 743mn +4%; 51% share.

-France visitor spend +11%. US, largest, grew +6%. Totals not given.

-Growth forecast for this year +3-4%. WTO does not note that this is a slowdown.

*Notes:

-WTO excludes Israel from its Middle East counts, and includes Egypt (which is in Africa).

-For obvious reasons, four destinations count zero – Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen.

 

India outbound 2019

22 January 2020

Excerpts from II* findings on India’s outbound travel Jan-Aug:

-Growth +7%. Number not given.

-Asia market share 70% in 2019. Growth not given.

-North America growth +7%. Share not given.

-Categories*. Holiday Trips share 65% (80% for all Asia). City Breaks plus Round Trips share 65%. Sun and Beach Holidays share 16%.

-Travel agency bookings share 45% (for all-Asia 25%, world also 25%).

-IPKI forecasts +6% growth this year. Base (all 2019 or Jan-Aug) not clarified.

*Notes:

-II=Germany-based IPK International (IPKI), a research company, with ITB Berlin (ITBB), the 10k-exhibitor travel trade exhibition in the city. Unfortunately, II are often casual in reporting their findings, although we believe they are precise in their research work.

-For ‘holiday travel’, we believe II mean non-business travel, sometimes known as ‘leisure travel’.

-In 2019, II introduced ‘roundtrips’ as a category in some reports. There has been no further definition although the term makes no sense, as presumably around 95% of trips are roundtrips.

-In other reports, II have had a category ‘tour [sometimes ‘touring’] holidays’ (II has also never defined this, and as it is open to interpretation, we wonder how those questioned defined it).

-At press time, II had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

Australia hotel results after fires
21 January 2020
[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on Australia’s bushfire impact on hotel performance, for December:
-Sydney Drive Regional, a submarket within a 2-hour-drive of Greater Sydney. Roomnights sold -14.7%, occupancy -14.5% to 52.2%, average room rate (ARR) -18.4% to US$134.30 (A$194.74).
-New South Wales, North Coast submarket, or Northern Rivers region. Roomnights sold +7.0%, ARR +5.8%. Occupancy not given.
-NSW, North Coast South submarket, or Mid North Coast. Roomnights sold +0.4%. Occupancy and ARR not given.

ATF; Asean Tourism Forum; Brunei blocks Asean
20 January 2020
This time of the year, we usually report on travel product and travel marketing developments in the 10 Asean* destinations.
This year, the Brunei host-committee for the Asean Travel Forum this month in Brunei, blocked attendance by Travel Business Analyst.
Our first reaction was disappointment, then umbrage. Then on reflection, perhaps this is a better way. We espouse liberalism in the travel business, so that should be applied to coverage of travel industry events.
But there are other factors, most important is that Brunei should not decide for Asean.
Organisers need to think the reason for media attendance in the first place – to encourage editorial coverage of travel-related developments in the 10 destinations, not just the host destination.
As it is, we will wait until ITB in Berlin in March to get the information we usually collect at ATF. But, because of ITBB logistics, we will probably not cover some smaller destinations that are also less important to Asean – say Brunei, Laos, Myanmar.
There needs to be a change in rules for host destinations.
Asean should give host committees their ‘must’ list of media (and probably of other hosted sectors as well, such as buyers). This can be companies as well as individuals. For instance, TTG Asia could be on the ‘must’ list as could, say, some named media people.
If a person or company is on the host destination’s ‘banned’ list, then the host committee would have to transmit its reasons for the ‘no’, and Asean could decide whether to accept those reasons or not.
Incredibly, Brunei’s host committee does not have to transmit to anyone why we were delisted. So it could have been one person on the committee who said no, or other reasons. But without knowing those reasons, there is little we could do to change the decision.
As a result, Brunei – representing about 5% of Asean’s travel business – has prevented us from reporting on the 95%. Worse, no one in Asean cares whether this is a good or bad situation.
We are prompted to write this because of our own experience, but the reasons are professional. For sure this has happened to other people in other destinations.
Hosting an Asean event is a privilege, and a service to Asean. But Brunei appears to have ignored both those factors.
*Notes:
-Asean = Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean writes ‘Southeast’, even though that should make the abbreviation ASAN). Asean members are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.
-We did not seek comments from Asean for this report. Unfortunately, our experience is no acknowledgement, and never have we received a comment. We believe that despite the economic importance of the travel business to many of the 10 destinations, matters of state, not economics, get most attention.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, January 13-17

FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, January 13-17

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

 

Travel business updates

17 January 2020

[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in December at 6.96mn +2.1%, YTD 83.5mn +2.7%.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels 5-11 January: occupancy -3.1% to 51.7%, average room rate -4.7% to US$120.43.

 

Americas outbound 2019

16 January 2020

Excerpts from II* findings on outbound travel from Latin America (LAm) and North America (NAm) over Jan-Aug.

See Notes below, which include important caveats and qualifications.

-LAm -3% (II rounded). Number not given. Negatively affected by ‘high-volume’ Mexico (total not given, but our database shows almost 20mn arrivals in the US alone), -5%.

-NAm growth +4.5%. Number not given. Boosted by travel from the US (II uses the term ‘US-Americans’), +6%.

-All Americas growth +3.5%.

-Travel to Europe +7% (from the Americas). Travel to Spain +11%, Italy +10%. These two destinations are believed to have been listed because they were the fastest-growing; they are not the largest.

-Outbound travel within the Americas grew +3%. Trips to Asia also +3%.

-‘Holidays’ grew +5%; now 60% share. Business travel fall -1%; share not given. II do not make clear if it records other categories, such as VFR; no other categories are shown.

–The following categories are believed to be sub-categories under ‘holidays’ as above. City Breaks +10%, ‘Holidays in the Country’ +9%, Cruises +6%, ‘Round Trips’ +5%, ‘Sun & Beach’ -1%.

-IPKI forecasts LAm outbound to grow +1% this year, NAm outbound +3%. Base (all 2019 or Jan-Aug) not clarified.

*Notes:

-II=Germany-based IPK International (IPKI), a research company, with ITB Berlin (ITBB), the 10k-exhibitor travel trade exhibition in the city. Unfortunately, II are often casual in reporting their findings, although we believe they are precise in their research work.

-A common fault with II reports concerns Mexico. II do not seem to be aware that Mexico is part of North America. They often include it in Latin America (correct, although LAm is not a geographical term and which II do not clearly define), but then comment separately on North America. Does II’s NAm include or exclude Mexico?

  We believe II exclude Mexico from North America, because they include it in LAm. (And sometimes in South America, which is wrong.)

-For ‘holiday travel’, we believe II mean non-business travel, sometimes known as ‘leisure travel’.

-In 2019, II introduced ‘roundtrips’ as a category in some reports. There has been no further definition although the term makes little sense, as presumably around 95% of trips are roundtrips.

-Also added are ‘Holidays in the Country’ (not clear if this is same as a previously-used category, ‘Countryside’, but definitions not known.

-In some reports, II have had a category ‘tour [sometimes ‘touring’] holidays’ (II have also never defined this, and as it is open to interpretation, we wonder how those questioned defined it).

-At press time, II had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

Travel business updates

15 January 2020

[] ARC (the Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines), reports for 2019: air tickets sold US$97.4bn +2.8%; EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$84.6mn +8%; EMD transactions 1.4mn +8.5%.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports that the largest single hotel transaction in Europe in 2019 was the 557-room Amsterdam Double Tree (a Hilton brand). Sale price was US$422mn (at US$1 to €0.90), US$758,000 per room.

[] Magic Stay* is currently claiming a portfolio of 700,000 ‘accommodations’ – which include apartments, studios, villas.

However, two years ago it reported 150,000 apartments in 90 countries, although in some other reports – at the same time – it noted 130,000 ‘accommodations’ in 110 countries. We have no easy way of confirming these statements.

MS has never published operating data.

*Notes:

-France-based 6-year-old Magic Stay, despite that name, specialises in short-term apartment rentals for business travellers.

-We believe ‘Magic’ is the wrong word for a BT site, although MS has already changed its name from Magic Event.

 

Travel business updates

14 January 2020

[] ARC (the Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines), reports for December (any rounding by ARC): air tickets sold US$6.1bn +10%; average US roundtrip ticket US$494 +$4; passenger trips 302.3mn +2.3% (domestic – +2%, international +3%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales +44%.

[] Research & Markets* (RM), a company, forecasts:

–China outbound travel to GCC* destinations will generate US$9bn revenue by 2026 (which we presume is 2025). Although we do not understand the marketing value of this measure, we note that RM earlier forecast that the India outbound market to GCC destinations would be US$24bn ‘by 2025’ – meaning in 2024.

–India outbound will generate US$62bn revenue by 2026. RM makes no attempt to convert this into trip numbers. Our back-of-envelope calculations indicate 41mn, which is obviously wrong. That indicates that RM has missed providing important caveats to its data.

*Notes: GCC=Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).

 

Outbound Germany

31 December 2019

Excerpts from II* findings on outbound travel from Germany over Jan-Aug:

-Trips grew +2%.

-Selected destinations (by II; reason, and reason for order, not known): Turkey +14%, Spain +2%, Greece fall (no data), Croatia fall (no data), Netherlands +5%, Poland +4%.

-Categories*. City breaks +8%, Sun & Beach +3%, Roundtrips (sic) -4%, Mountains fall (no data), Holidays in the Country (sic; sometimes defined as Countryside?) fall (no data).

-Mode. Rail +6%, Air +4%, Car fall (no data). Bus, no information.

-IPKI forecasts 2020 outbound travel from Germany will be +2%. Presumed to be Jan-Dec, not Jan-Aug. Base figure or growth for Jan-Dec 19 not known.

*Notes:

-II=Germany-based IPK International (IPKI), a research company, with ITB Berlin (ITBB), the 10k-exhibitor travel trade exhibition in the city. Unfortunately, II are often casual in reporting their findings, although we believe they are precise in their research work.

-In 2019, II introduced ‘roundtrips’ as a category in some reports. There has been no further definition although the term makes no sense, as presumably around 95% of trips are roundtrips.

-In some other reports, II have ‘holiday travel’ as a category, which we believe means non-business travel, sometimes known as ‘leisure travel’. We do not know if that category is excluded in this report, or is given another name.

-This report also introduces ‘Holidays in the Country’ (not clear if this is same as a previously-used category, ‘Countryside’, but definitions not known.

-In other reports, II have had a category ‘tour (sometimes ‘touring’) holidays’ (II has also never defined this, and as it is open to interpretation, we wonder how those questioned defined it).

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

-At press time, II had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, January 6 – 10. Travel Stocks Indices, more

FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, January 6 – 10

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

 

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks

10 January 2020

The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in December for US hotel companies was 5270 +6.1% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was +29.5%.

The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ for December, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 195.

The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ for December, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 211.

The ‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ for December, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.

The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in December, from the current edition of our monthly Net Value report, was at 160.

The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong and New York, as well as Shanghai), in December from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 109.

Notes: The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at February 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

 

Travel business updates

9 January 2020

[] Greece’s DMO reports November air arrivals +18.5%, YTD +3.8%. Bank of Greece all arrivals October +1.9%, YTD +3.7%; spend +4.1%, YTD +13.1%.

[] Research & Markets* (RM), a company, forecasts annual average growth rate of India’s ‘Travel Services Market*’ will be +19% over 2020-24. This looks too high; neither domestic nor inbound nor outbound has reached double figures over the past five years.

*Notes:

-We understand that TSM means all travel bookings.

-We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.

-At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.

[] UK-based Tripism* claims to reach 1mn business travellers. However, it bases this on the number of employees at the companies with which it has contracts. It adds those companies spend US$4.5bn annually on travel and travel-related activities. It also has contracts with 50 travel suppliers (airlines, hotels, transportation, etc).

*Notes:

-A market network for business travel. Companies use to give their business travellers personalised travel information. 

 

Airline business updates

8 January 2020

[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) reports November RPKs +3.3%, ASKs +1.8%, load factor 81.1% +1.1 pt. RPKs by region – Asia Pacific +4.4%, Europe +1.3%, Middle East +7.2%, North America +2.3%.

International RPKs +3.1% – Asia Pacific +3.9%, Europe +1.2%, Middle East +7.4%, North America +2.3%.

Domestic RPKs +3.5% – Australia +1.1%, Brazil +1.4%, China +5.3%, India +11.3%, Japan +3.7%, Russia +2.4%, US +2.4%.

 

Hotel business updates

6 January 2020

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels:

-29 December 2019 through 4 January 2020: occupancy +0.3% to 49.0%, average room rate +4.0% to US$136.46.

-23-29 December: occupancy -4.9% to 48.5%, average room rate -2.6% to US$127.92.

[] MKG* reports France’s 2019 hotel results:

-Average room rate +1.5%. Other data not given.

-Sector low budget ARR (+3.1%). Other sectors ARR +1-2%; MKG’s rounding). Other data not given.

-Paris occupancy 71.2%; compared with 2017 (75.2%), not 2018. However, in the same communication, MKG also reports Paris occupancy at 80.8% -0.5pts, and ARR US$183.67 (€165.3; MKG’s rounding) +1.0%.

*Notes:

-MKG is a France-based hotel consultancy; name origin unknown.

-MKG focuses on hotel revpar (revenue per available room), which has little marketing value to those outside the hotel business. As a result, we reduce our report to measures other than revpar.

-At press time, MKG had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, December 23 – January 3. December stocks; more.

FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, December 23 – January 3. December stocks; more.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

 

TBA Tracking: December travel stocks’ ups and downs

3 January 2020

Travel stock prices (Asia Pacific, Europe, US) in December. Airlines: biggest growth, Korean +15%; biggest fall, SAS -24%. Hotels: Wynn +15%, Peninsula -7%. Tech: Trivago +12%, cTrip 0.0%. China travel stocks (new): Jinjiang +19%, Guangzhou Airport +4% (sic). Others: Carnival +13%, Boeing -11%.

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, SAS +33%; biggest fall, Norwegian -12%. Hotels: Jinjiang +20%, NH -3%. Tech: Amadeus +9%, Trivago -33%. China travel stocks: China United Tvl +8%, China International Tvl -7%. Others: Walt Disney +17%, Genting -15%.

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399. Index previous month: World 226, Asia Pacific 80, Europe 213, US 384.

TBA China Travel Stocks Index (new; quotes from China, Hong Kong, US): 105; previous month 96.

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 160; previous month 151.

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth Istanbul +11%; biggest fall Australia -2%. Previous month: biggest growth New York-Travel Weekly +9%; biggest fall Kuala Lumpur -2%.

Commentary:

-Airlines. India’s Jet was actually the fastest – +39%. But as it is not operating any flights, it is really no longer an ‘airline’. Not far behind fastest Korean was the London quote for ICAG – +13% – good for a giant group.

-Hotels. Just behind Las Vegas’s Wynn was China’s Jinjiang (+14% in Hong Kong, and even higher in Shanghai).

-China travel stocks. Did two of China’s top-3 airports, Guangzhou and Shanghai, fall because Beijing’s Daxing opened? (Daxing is not on the stockmarket; the older airport, Beijing Capital, is quoted on the Hong Kong stockmarket.)

-Travel-Tech. Pleased to see Trivago grow, even better to be the fastest. But still a long way to go – it is less than half its end-2018 price. Just behind Trivago was LastMinute – just a fraction below +12%. LM is 2.5x its end-2018 price, and the best performer in our TT Index – over 3x the price it entered our Index five years ago.

-Others. Boeing’s much-publicised troubles were matched with its stock price fall. Just behind fastest Carnival was another cruiser, Royal Caribbean, at +11%.

-US. Despite reports on euphoria in US stock markets, prices of six of our seven airlines fell. However, all hotels grew, although the two falls in Others were among the biggest names – Boeing and Disney.

-Stockmarkets. Hong Kong, despite the city’s social problems, also grew +7%, but a fraction slower than Istanbul.

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. This will include annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

 

R&M on Japan outbound

2 January 2020

Research & Markets* (RM), a company, report on Japan’s outbound travel spend:

-Total was US$38.6bn (quoted in US$) in 2018, which we calculate on RM data was +3.5% growth.

–Our database (based on WTO data) shows sizeably different figures – US$20.2bn +9.4%, and growing at about +5% in 2019.

-‘Japanese tourists’ (we are uncertain if this is actually all Japan residents, not just nationals) spend an average of US$114 per domestic trip. No comparative data for international outbound.

-Domestic trips were 16x greater in 2018 than international outbound trips. We are not clear on the relevance of this – particularly as neither figure is given.

-‘Japanese travellers’ aged 50-64 take most domestic and international trips. No data.

-Spend is growing ‘at an accumulative rate’. We do not know what RM means by this phrase.

*Notes:

-We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.

-At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

Outbound Germany

31 December 2019

Excerpts from II* findings on outbound travel from Germany over Jan-Aug:

-Trips grew +2%.

-Selected destinations (by II; reason, and reason for order, not known): Turkey +14%, Spain +2%, Greece fall (no data), Croatia fall (no data), Netherlands +5%, Poland +4%.

-Categories*. City breaks +8%, Sun & Beach +3%, Roundtrips (sic) -4%, Mountains fall (no data), Holidays in the Country (sic; sometimes defined as Countryside?) fall (no data).

-Mode. Rail +6%, Air +4%, Car fall (no data). Bus, no information.

-IPKI forecasts 2020 outbound travel from Germany will be +2%. Presumed to be Jan-Dec, not Jan-Aug. Base figure or growth for Jan-Dec 19 not known.

*Notes:

-II=Germany-based IPK International (IPKI), a research company, with ITB Berlin (ITBB), the 10k-exhibitor travel trade exhibition in the city. Unfortunately, II are often casual in reporting their findings, although we believe they are precise in their research work.

-In 2019, II introduced ‘roundtrips’ as a category in some reports. There has been no further definition although the term makes no sense, as presumably around 95% of trips are roundtrips.

-In some other reports, II have ‘holiday travel’ as a category, which we believe means non-business travel, sometimes known as ‘leisure travel’. We do not know if that category is excluded in this report, or is given another name.

-This report also introduces ‘Holidays in the Country’ (not clear if this is same as a previously-used category, ‘Countryside’, but definitions not known.

-In other reports, II have had a category ‘tour (sometimes ‘touring’) holidays’ (II has also never defined this, and as it is open to interpretation, we wonder how those questioned defined it).

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

-At press time, II had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

Our outlook for travel

30 December 2019

The following is extracted from our input for an external report.

[] Assessment of travel business in the past four months compared to what we would expect for that period:

-Equal.

  Equal does not mean good. Business is static, as with a holding pattern. No particularly bad news – which is almost the same as good news.

[] Assessment of travel business in the next four months compared to what we would expect for that period:

-Better.

  Macro matters:

  -Presumably the US will continue the same, after the impeachment matter is over (on the assumption Trump is ‘acquitted’).

  -And the US/China trade war seems likely to get better, rather than worse.

  -And the UK has made one important decision in its Brexit matter, but others to make, and these seem likely to be bad for the UK economy.

  -Other worries beckon, though – Brazil corruption/economy, Mexico economy, Spain political impasse, etc.

[] Assessment of travel business in 2019 as compared to 2018:

-About the same.

  The macro negatives – few positives. But that was expected.

[] Assessment of travel business in 2020 as compared to 2019:

-About the same.

  Some of the potential good news noted above for the upcoming four months. But there are still areas of concern:

  -From the Middle East (unstable; will it get better or worse?);

  -North Africa (Sudan still unstable, Algeria new president, but still disturbances);

  -Other Africa (terrorism concerns in more than a few countries);

  -China/Asia (if the China/US news gets better, will China turn again to expanding its power in the seas?);

  -2020 is presidential election year in the US; this seems certain to be turbulent; how will that affect the travel business?

  -The UK is due to negotiate with the EU on future trade relations; this seems likely to lead to bad news for the UK; when will that become obvious and how will that affect the travel business – certainly air connections?

 

Agoda on the 2020s

27 December 2019

We find some trend forecasts from Agoda* on travellers from Asia the 2020s to be almost meaningless without more data, or a better-constructed survey. Here are some:

-Expecting ‘a lot more’ from their travels: Indonesia 56%, Singapore 54%, Malaysia 53%, Taiwan 50%, Philippines 48%, Thailand 48%. Outside Asia – UK one-third, US 33%.

We are surprised this is not nearer 100% everywhere, as people usually want more/better. Agoda presents the lower UK and US shares as a comparative negative, although it could also be that they are happier with their current travel experiences than travellers from those Asia markets. Agoda reports ‘one-third’ and ‘33%’ as different, but we presume one has been mis-stated.

-Expect passport-free travel – Singapore 50%, Vietnam 47%, Philippines 45%, China 44%, Australia 41%, UK 20%, US 20%.

Not clear if this is an administrative or technical question, because passport-free travel already exists in many regions, most notably for much of Europe. The coded machine-readable information in a passport is technically ‘passport-free’ and it is relatively simple to include this information on, for instance, a boarding pass, or some other document. For these reasons, we cannot understand Agoda’s 20% findings for the UK and the US – although the UK is not in Europe’s passport-free area and after its exit from the European Union due next month, document-free travel will likely become more difficult.

-40% of all respondents (breakouts not given) plan more domestic travel, 35% international. Another near-meaningless finding. Over 10 years, what does ‘more’ mean?

-‘Above’ 25% plan more eco-friendly travel – those from Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia most keen. We do not know reason for the selection of those three markets, nor the order, and whether others are below 25%?

-Travellers from China, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, US, Vietnam choose domestic destinations in their top-3. Again, over 10 years, this does not add up to much insight.

-Travellers from Korea and Japan plan more solo trips. Agoda’s order; it terms them ‘Korean’ and ‘Japanese’ but we believe these are residential- not nationality-categories. Again, over 10 years, this does not add up to much insight.

-Kyoto is the most-desired destination. Agoda also lists Bangkok and Bali but does not clarify if these are #2 and #3.

Agoda also gives more (and better) findings on the US. These include:

-42% expect mobile-phone hotel-check-in will be the standard.

-29% expect to use one app for all travel needs.

-12% plan to take more eco-friendly trips.

-Most-desired destinations – New York then London, then Sydney.

-38% would like to take more domestic trips, 26% more international trips.

*Notes:

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

-Agoda is a Singapore-based online travel agency, owned by US-based Bookings (nee Priceline). Started in 2005, it is more of a hotel-booking site than all-travel. It has 2.5mn properties.

-At press time, Agoda had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

Hotel business updates

26 December 2019

STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports:

-on Middle East hotels in November: occupancy +3.4% to 72.1%, average room rate -5.9% to US$146.47.

-on US hotels 15-21 December: occupancy +5.9% to 50.1%, average room rate +1.8% to US$108.96.

 

Phocuswright on Europe

24 December 2019

To promote its Europe conference in Amsterdam next May, PCW (Phocuswright, a travel research company specialising in online data) has published some data on the region, including:

-PCW estimates online travel penetration in Denmark, Norway, Sweden will be 62% this year. We believe this is the share of total travel booked online.

-France’s travel market is forecast to grow from US$52.2bn (at US$1 to €0.90) in 2019 to US$55.4bn ‘by 2023’. We calculate this would be a +2.0% annual average growth rate if 2019-22 and +1.5% if 2019-23.

-Germany’s travel market is forecast to grow 2% annually to US$76.8bn in 2023. Other details not known; we calculate this would mean PCW estimates the market will be US$69.1bn this year.

-UK’s travel market is forecast to grow 1.5-2% annually through 2023. Other details not known.

*Notes:

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

-At press time, PCW had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

Euromonitor city-visitor forecasts

23 December 2019

Euromonitor* (EM), a UK-based market research company, forecasts:

-Visitor arrivals this year at 1.47bn +4.2% – but it also notes these as ‘trips’, which is a different category to ‘arrivals’.

-Share of Top-100 cities 47%.

-Selected cities (by EM) – Hong Kong top (EM notes a -8.7% fall ‘this year’; we do not know if that is an EM forecast, or YTD actual; our database shows -4.6% Jan-Oct); London 3rd but also falling.

-Istanbul fastest growth (figure not given, but EM notes it has returned to top-10; which city has dropped out is not noted).

-‘Most’ cities in America (believed to be US, not Americas or North America) falling in rankings, but growing in arrivals.

-‘Steady growth’ in Middle East/Africa, ‘compared to the rest of the world’ (we do not know if this means growth in share, rankings, or faster-growth). Notes ‘sharp recovery’ in ranking for Cairo and Hurghada following ‘an active tourism reform strategy’. EM does not note in what way ‘tourism’ was reformed.

*Notes:

-We have run a few critical reports on EM findings – most apparently due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, EM had not answered our request for clarifications.

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.