FOXTROTS*
Travel Industry Data News, June 1-5.
From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com
Travel business updates
5 June 2020
[] ARC* reports weekly percentage falls in May for US-based travel agencies:
(Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)
-YTD. 1. -48.50%. 2. -53.58%. 3. -51.67%. 4. -46.33%. 5. -48.53%.
In 7-day periods through:
-May 31. 1. -83.7%. 2. -89.9%. 3. -92.9%. 4. -77.4%. 5. -84.7%.
-May 24. 1. -85.2%. 2. -91.1%. 3. -93.3%. 4. -79.0%. 5. -86.4%.
-May 17. 1. -87.4%. 2. -92.6%. 3. -94.3%. 4. -82.4%. 5. -87.9%.
-May 10. 1. -88.6%. 2. -93.5%. 3. -94.8%. 4. -84.0%. 5. -89.3%.
-May 3. 1. -81.8%. 2. -89.5%. 3. -91.1%. 4. -74.0%. 5. -82.5%.
*Notes:
-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.
-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] IATA (International Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade body) reports April RPKs -94.3%, ASKs -87.0%, load factor 36.6% -46.6pt.
RPKs by region – Asia Pacific -88.5%, Europe -98.1%, Middle East -97.3%, North America -96.6%.
International RPKs -98.4% – Asia Pacific -98.0%, Europe -99.0%,, Middle East -97.3%, North America -98.3%.
Domestic RPKs -86.9% – Australia -96.8%, Brazil -93.1%, China -66.6%, Japan -88.7%, Russia -82.7%, US -95.7%.
*Notes:
-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] STR* reports on US hotels 24-30 May: occupancy 36.6% (-43.2%), average room rate US$82.94 (-33.3%).
*Notes:
-STR = Smith Travel Research; despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business, we reduce our report to measures where data other than revpar is given.
TBA Tracking: Visitor-spend in Europe; Eurotunnel traffic; Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index
4 June 2020
Visitor-spend in Europe, latest
A brief ‘main-points’ review* of latest visitor-spend counts, growth only:
-Austria +5%, France +5%, Germany +2%, Greece +13%, Italy +7%, Russia -5%, Spain +3%, Switzerland +2%, Turkey +18%, UK +7%. Europe +1%.
*Notes:
-Months are usually for larger/significant cities/destinations, latest available. All are January through December.
-Data from various sources, mainly Tourmis, WTO, and destinations.
-Most excerpted from our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.
Eurotunnel traffic, latest
A brief ‘main-points’ review* of latest Eurotunnel, growth only:
-Eurostar passengers. Q1 -20%.
-Cars transported. Q1 -14%.
-Buses transported. Q1 -30%.
*Notes:
-Eurotunnel releases some data monthly and other data quarterly. Here, we show only quarterly data.
-Excerpted from our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.
Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index
Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 99 in April. Index previous month 90. Index end-2019 170.
Comments:
-There was recovery in April, with six of our seven stocks growing. Only Lastminute fell.
-However, bad in that three are still below their base price – cTrip, Expedia, Trivago.
-All seven are still below their pre-covid prices, this past January, and seem unlikely, statistically, to catch up for at least 3/4 months.
*Notes:
-NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech. The Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US – one of which, cTrip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for cTrip, end-2016 for Trivago.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
Stockmarket last-day travel-tech-stock closing prices, 2015-20
| Company |
Price,local currency |
Growth┼,% |
NVTT* index |
|
Apr 20 |
Dec 19 |
stock |
market |
Company |
All |
| Amadeus |
43.9 |
72.8 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
133 |
135 |
| Booking╪ |
1481 |
2054 |
10.1 |
15.4 |
130 |
132 |
| cTrip |
25.8 |
34.9 |
14.4 |
10.4 |
55 |
56 |
| eDreams |
2.15 |
4.27 |
15.9 |
2.0 |
130 |
132 |
| Expedia |
71.0 |
108 |
26.1 |
10.4 |
83 |
84 |
| Lastminute |
21.4 |
46.0 |
-0.5 |
3.4 |
143 |
145 |
| Trivago |
1.83 |
2.62 |
25.3 |
10.4 |
16 |
16 |
Notes: *NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech; *100 base on Dec 2014 prices or when company started listing. ┼Latest month over month earlier. ╪Renamed 2018; was Priceline. Source: companies, Net Value, stockmarkets.
Travel business updates
3 June 2020
[] GD* reports on latest deals done by companies in the travel business. Findings:
-Deals -31.3% (number not given) May 25-31; -38.5% (number not given) May 18-24; 26 -3.7% May 11-17; 27 (growth not given) May 4-10. GD usually gives growth over average of last 12 months, but these are over the previous weeks.
-GD information on locations is inconsistent, and appears to be incorrect, viz:
-It reported for May 25-31 that deals fell in the UK and US (numbers not given). No information was given for the other markets GD usually covers – China, India, Korea.
-For May 18-24 deals fell in the US (number not given). Yet for May 11-17 GD did not note where the 26 deals it listed were done; we presumed the US. For that same week for China, India, UK (markets selected by GD) it noted no deals. And for May 4-10, one deal each for China, India, UK.
-For UK May 11-17 GD notes an ‘improvement’ – although for the previous week it had reported zero deals. And it adds that in Korea deal numbers were the same as the previous week – although it had given no number that previous week. In addition, GD made no reference to the other two markets – China, India.
*Notes:
-GD = Global Data, a data and analytics company.
-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.
-A full report on this topic in our W.S.Y.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] UK-based Technavio, a research company, forecasts India’s ‘travel services’ market will grow +18.1% this year, and +US$56bn over 2020-24, a 19% AAGR (annual average growth rate).
These are the same figures as its forecast in early-March. Given the disruption caused by the covid virus, this damages the credibility of forecast.
*Notes:
-We understand that ‘travel services’ means travel agencies, on- and off-line. This would normally include domestic-, inbound-, outbound-travel.
-Data as shown; nothing to put these growth figures into context.
-In March it also forecast that 82% of growth would be from online. We do not know if that forecast is maintained.
-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
-At press time, Technavio had not answered our request for clarifications.
[] Starting this year, the Lufthansa group reports traffic results quarterly rather than monthly. Those for Q1 along with April have just been released. Excerpts:
-Seat sales 21.8mn -26.1%. April 241k -98.1%.
-Seat load factor 73.3% -4.7 pts. April 47.5% -35.8ots.
*Notes: A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.
[] New data from the WTO* indicates that visitor-spend growth in Europe in 2019 was slower than generally accepted. WTO does not give growth (perhaps it is waiting for final figures) but it puts spend at US$574bn, which we calculate would be +0.9%. Arrivals grew +4.0%.
*Notes: WTO (World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO) is a lobby group for the travel business).
TBA Tracking: Airline financial results; passenger counts to/from Singapore and Sydney; and to/from AsPac to/from Australia, France, Germany, UK
2 June 2020
Airline financial results compared
Our results database compares latest airline results against our calculated non-industry-standard measures*. For Japan Airlines US$314 US$22 (year earlier US$316 US$37), Singapore Airlines US$297 US$14 (US$326 US$14).
*Notes:
-Extract shows revenue-per-seat-sold and operating-profit-per-seat-sold, in US$ for latest reported fiscal year; whole groups where relevant.
-Data from airlines, and most excerpted from the current Asia Pacific edition of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.
Air passenger counts to/from Singapore and Sydney
A brief ‘main-points’ report on latest YTD* air passenger counts* to/from Singapore, Sydney over selected country/regional-pairs in Asia Pacific, Europe, UAE/Dubai, US. Growth only:
-To/from Singapore: China -61%, Hong Kong -58%, Japan -30%, Thailand -36%, UK -15%. Europe -17%, Middle East -66%, North America -14%, Oceania -15%, South Asia -24%. All -33%.
-To/from Sydney: Auckland -18%, Bangkok -33%, Beijing -54%, Denpasar -0.3%, Hong Kong -39%, Singapore -13%, Tokyo -19%. Dubai -8%, London -3%, Los Angeles -13%. All -20%.
*Notes:
-Data is for January through March.
-Data from Singapore Dept of Statistics, Dept Transport & Communications (Australia), and most excerpted from our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.
Air passenger counts to/from AsPac to/from Australia, France, Germany, UK
A brief ‘main-points’ report on latest YTD* air passenger counts* to/from Australia, France, Germany, UK over selected country-pairs to/from Asia Pacific. Growth only:
-To/from Australia: China -55%, Hong Kong -39%, India -3%, Japan -12%, Korea -29%, Singapore -16%, Thailand -9%. UAE -10%. All -18%.
-To/from France (Paris only): China -67%, Hong Kong -63%, India -47%, Japan -39%, Korea -42%, Singapore -43%, Thailand -31%. UAE -35%. All -46%.
-To/from Germany: China -54%, Hong Kong -52%, India -22%, Japan -30%, Korea -28%, Singapore -16%, Thailand -4%. UAE -17%. All -23%.
-To/from UK: Australia -5%, China -31%, Hong Kong -18%, India -22%, Japan +8%, Korea -12%, Singapore -4%, Thailand +4%. UAE +6%. All +0.4%.
*Notes:
-Different months, which currently can make a big difference. January through February for UK (its CAA is running behind with data, and still not correcting mistakes we have found for Dec 19), through March for Australia and Germany, through April for France.
-Data from Dept Transport & Communications (Australia), Aeroports de Paris, Statistisches Bundesamt (Germany), Civil Aviation Authority (UK).
-Most excerpted from the current Asia Pacific edition of our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.
TBA Tracking: May travel stocks; what’s going on?
1 June 2020
Commentary (numbers below):
-Stockmarkets – the only measure we track that is not specifically travel-business – grew only +3%. But most travel stocks grew faster.
-The Travel Weekly index, comprising only US travel companies, was +4.9%, effectively the same as our composite index of US markets, +4.6%.
-Surprising was the fall in Asia Pacific – in all sectors. General commentary has been on the region’s recovery-mode; the end of the lockdown. Do these falls indicate that the market believes that recovery for the travel business will take longer?
-China stocks provide no clarity – +1% for travel stocks quoted in China, but -1% for China travel stocks quoted in China and outside. That said, that difference is not great.
-As usual, some big movements twist the total. For US airlines, for instance, American was -13%. Remove that, and the all-airline fall becomes +1%.
-With Hertz shutting down, its stock was down -75%, but are investors switching to rival Avis, +31%?
-Boeing was up a cautious +3%, but rival Airbus seems to be shutting down production of its pride, the all-new double-deck new-technology A380, which probably prompted the -2% fall in the company’s stock price.
-Travel-tech had a good month, with only Last Minute falling, -6%. However, all except China’s cTrip are still well down on their end-2019 prices, even hallowed Booking -20% and Expedia -26%.
-Some strange moves for airlines in Asia. The top-4 China airlines (we now include Cathay in that category) fell badly, minus 14-19%. Yet Singapore was -37%, almost as bad as -44% at Thai, which is in bankruptcy protection. And no longer, it seems, can Air Asia do-no-wrong; down -15%, and -59% since end-2019.
-Europe’s top-3 no-frills-airlines did well – Easy +13%, Ryan +7%, Wizz +14%. In the US, Southwest was +3%.
-TUI is storming ahead – +33% in Frankfurt, +38% in London. Is there a bid coming, or a break-up?
-The two giant hotel groups performed differently – UK-quoted InterContinental +7%, US-quoted Marriott -3%.
Numbers – Indices:
-TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 136, Asia Pacific 44, Europe 123, US 241. Index previous month: World 129, Asia Pacific 46, Europe 119, US 223. Index end-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US) 80. Index previous month 81. Index end-2019 105.
-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index 111. Index previous month 99. Index end-2019 170.
Numbers – Sectors:
-Asia Pacific. Airlines -9%, Hotels -3%, Others -5%.
-Europe. Airlines +3%, Hotels +8%, Others +5%.
-US. Airlines -1%, Hotels +4%, Others +5%.
-China +1%.
-China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) -1%.
-Travel-tech +15%.
-Stockmarkets +3%.
Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. The February issue included annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.
The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.
*Fox – sly. Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning. Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.
