FOXTROTS
Fox – sly. Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.
Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.
WYSKs: UK in/out 2016; US air 2016; AsPac in/out
WYSKs = What You Should Know.
UK 2016 counts.
Ok; here goes. The following are my manipulations of official data – which is not presented in quite the same way.
-All-2016 inbound +4.3%.
-All-2016 outbound +6.4%.
-Post-Brexit-vote inbound +6.1%.
-Post-Brexit-vote outbound +7.4%.
That’s not quite how it should have been.
Inbound did grow faster post-vote (actually, the spur was thought to be the big fall in the value of the currency, not the vote). But then so did outbound. It was supposed to fall, given the greater cost, due to that currency fall.
US air travel, 2016.
A brief – the fuller report in the current editions of our newsletter. Of note in the regions we track:
-Total air seats sold +6%.
-#1 (in our regional watch) UK +4%. Is this Brexit related?
-Finally good growth for Japan (#2), +7%. China (overtaking France to become #4) +25%.
-UAE (= Emirates Etihad; #8) +5%.
Asia Pacific outbound
Our calculation of AsPac resident departures for latest-month October, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +2.8%; previous month +4.5%. Slowest among the bigger markets were Australia, China (our estimates), Japan.
Asia Pacific inbound
Our calculation of AsPac visitor arrivals for latest-month October, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +9.4%; previous month +11.2%. Double-digit growth for some; of the bigger markets – Australia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea (MERS in 2015), Vietnam. In trouble – Taiwan.
The Fox
Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.