FOXTROTS*

 

Double WYSKs: Trump Slump for US visitors, Travel stocks’ ups and downs

WYSK = What You Should Know

 

US visitors; Trump Slump

Again, normally we would not review so thoroughly data for one month. But these are not normal times, thus this analysis* – this one on Jan-Jul visitor arrivals.

 

Bad.

 

Most of the bigger markets (regions and markets) are down. There are no great surprises – except perhaps that some markets still grew. Some details:

 

[] Of the two contiguous markets in North America, the largest Canada is +4.6% YTD but with slowing growth in the latest month, July. Mexico is -8.5%, but with a reducing fall.

 

[] Overseas -6.4% and getting worse.

 

[] International -4.0% and getting worse.

 

[] Top-3 overseas. UK -6.2% but steady; Japan 0.4% and growing; China -5.8% and getting much worse.

 

[] Rest of top-5. Korea +17.2% but slowing growth; Germany -0.2% and getting worse.

 

[] Selected other bigger markets.

 

-The top-2 regions, Western Europe then Asia, take a near-80% share of the overseas markets, so what happens from those two regions decides a lot about the total. Europe is -1.9%, Asia -1.8%, but both are worsening.

 

-Not surprisingly, Africa and the Middle East are crashing – -28% and -32% – but their combined share is only 5%.

 

-South America is bigger, 13% share, so its fall – -14% and getting worse – is important.

 

-Perhaps it is a surprise that any in the top-20 are growing. That is the case for France, then Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Taiwan, Ireland. But for all except the Netherlands, growth is falling.

 

*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

 

 

Travel stocks’ ups and downs

Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in December. Airlines: biggest growth, China Eastern +23%; biggest fall, SAS -17%. Hotels: InterContinental +8%, Mandarin Oriental -7%. Tech: eDreams +14%, cTrip -5%. Others: Fraport +12%, Royal Caribbean -5%.

 

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Hawaiian +22%; biggest fall, Norwegian -22%. Hotels: Hyatt +16%, Peninsula -14%. Tech: eDreams +58%, Travelport -16%. Others: Walt Disney +8%, HNA -22%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 242, AsPac 120, Eur 205, US 402. Index previous month: World World 236, AsPac 116, Eur 203, US 389.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 136; previous month 132.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Istanbul +11%; biggest fall, Singapore -1%. Previous month: Tokyo +4%; Istanbul -6%.

 

Info from Travel Business Analyst newsletters. Details in next month’s newsletters – which will include annual comparison, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

 

 

The Fox

Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

 

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Advertisements