Travel Industry Data News, August 26-30

FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, August 26-30

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Hotels in India

30 August 2019

Horwath reports that India’s hotel occupancy in H1 was 66.5% and average room rate ‘surpassed’ US$87.98 (Rs6000). Changes not given, but Horwath’s commentary indicates there was growth.

It reports selected corporate growth plans: Wyndham’s Ramada opened four this year, and is due to open three in 2020; Shangri-La five by 2024; InterContinental two by 2022.

STR via Horwath reports India has 24,801 rooms under construction, an 8.4% share of total rooms.

 

Travel business updates

29 August 2019

[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in Q2 at 19.8mn +3.8%.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports:

-On Middle East hotels in July: occupancy +3.0% to 60.8%, average room rate -5.0% to US$119.26.

-On US hotels 18-24 September: occupancy +0.8% to 70.1%, average room rate +0.5% to US$128.57.

[] Travel Mole reports that India has approved the 42.5% stake in OTA Make My Trip by China’s OTA cTrip. The deal values MMT at US$2.5bn.

In exchange, South Africa-based Naspers takes a 5.6% stake in cTrip.

 

India and Vietnam MICE markets

28 August 2019

Research & Markets* (RM), a company, has published two reports on MICE – for India, Vietnam. These show:

[] RM’s India report is ‘India’s Outbound MICE Tourism to GCC Countries’.

It says the market will be worth US$5bn ‘by 2025’ – presumably in 2024. Main numbers, or growth, not given. This appears to indicate RM is working on 2.5mn travellers; we believe that is overstated by a factor of 10x.

Other information:

-UAE is the top destination for India’s MICE travellers. No data or dates.

-Bahrain and Saudi Arabia accounted for 15% share of spend by India’s MICE travellers in 2018. Not shown if total or each, and why these two selected; a different measure from previous item.

[] RM forecasts Vietnam‘s ‘MICE tourism market’ will be US$8bn ‘by 2025’ – presumably in 2024. We do not know how RM defines a ‘MICE tourism market’; most importantly whether it is inbound or outbound. No growth forecast is given.

RM also forecasts that ‘tourist arrivals’ in Vietnam will be 35mn by 2025- also presumably in 2024. There are no indications on why this data is shown, particularly as RM gives no link with the destination’s ‘MICE market’.

We calculate that visitor-arrivals forecast would require a +14.1% average annual growth rate 2018-24. That looks achievable in that growth over the past three years has been +20% in 2018, +30% +25%. A risk is that China, the largest source, has become a fickle market that may move up and down according to its political relationship with Vietnam.

*Notes: We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

TBA Tracking: Airline stock prices , Travel stocks index

27 August 2019

Airline stock prices

IATA (International Air Transport Association) reports July worldwide airline share prices +1.1% .

Our TBA worldwide airline stock price index, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows: compared with the month earlier, the same +1.1% stocks, +1.4% markets.

Index, travel stocks

The July ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows: World 225, Asia Pacific 81, Europe 198, US 395. (Base: December 2006.)

 

Travel stocks; advance review

26 August 2019

Our August monthly review is due next Monday, but we have taken an early look at China/Hong related travel stocks. The aim is to see if the Hong Kong socio-political demonstrations and the China/US trade war were damaging results.

Some findings:

-The Shanghai stockmarket was trending down about -2%, Hong Kong about -7%.

-On the Hong Kong market, no travel stock grew, China- or Hong Kong-based.

-Stocks on the Shanghai market were performing better. Five of our 11 travel stocks grew. But hard to identify a pattern – 1 was an airline (Spring), 1 hotel group (BTG), 3 Others.

-Beating the bad news was Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific – firing staff for their political views, disliked by many China commentators for not showing enough loyalty to China, and disliked by many in Hong Kong for kow-towing too much to China. Its stock was falling about -8%, taking it below its end-2018 price. But part of that seems to be the Hong Kong stockmarket overall , which fell -7%. Also, China’s three Hong Kong-quoted airline stocks all fell more than Cathay. And so, by way of example, did Singapore Airlines, -9%.

-Of the  travel companies qupted in Hong Kong and Shanghai, performance for the three airlines was similar in both markets. But for Jinjiang Hotels, there was a big difference – falling as much as -16% in Hong Kong, but flat in Shanghai.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

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