FOXTROTS

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Double WYSKs: Trump Slump, Airlines in Europe

WYSK = What You Should Know.

 

Trump Slump

Q1 US visitor data – just released – shows a shocking and worsening fall in visitation.

 

Q1 total was down -4% but that follows worsening totals – +2% in January, but then -6% February, -8% March.

 

That total includes the contiguous markets and Canada and Mexico. Perhaps as expected, Mexico fell by 7% (Canada actually grew).

 

However, if this is disenchantment with the general anti-foreigner (and more) comments from the new US president, Donald Trump, other markets fell further – -8% in Q1.

 

A stunning 16 of the top-20 markets fell – growth for Canada, Korea, France (recovery from special fall year earlier), with Italy flat.

 

The biggest fall in the top-10 overseas markets was the UK (No2) – supposedly the politically closest to President Trump. It fell -16%.

 

China may still be growing enough as an immature market for the US to hold. There was a 17% growth in January – but that was the high-travel Lunar New Year month. February fell -23% but that was because LNY was in that month in 2016. And March was -2%.

 

The leading overseas market, Japan, was down only -2%, although it was falling faster in March.

 

Although these percentage falls seem bad, the actual numerical fall – visitor numbers – is not so great, and may recover this year. The total fall was 700,000 visitors, and 620,000 fewer from overseas; the fall from Mexico was just under 300,000 visitors.

 

 

 

 

Airlines in Europe

January-June seat sales (RPKs for British; our estimates for Ryan): Air France+Hop +2%; British +2%; Easyjet +10%; Lufthansa +5%; Ryanair +12%.

 

Notes (on notable details; on whole-group for Air France, British, Lufthansa):

-Air France, its Transavia growing at 20% but still only 11% the size of Europe’s biggest, Ryanair.

 

-British is still the sluggish one in the ICAG group.

 

-Easyjet, and growing faster than YTD, but has some operational/scheduling faults. Needs to fix.

 

-Lufthansa, looking good. Its Brussels growing at +25%, Eurowings at +24%.

 

-Ryanair, holding that growth, and still managing 94% seat factor.

 

 

The Fox

Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

 

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