Travel Industry Data News, August 19-23

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Travel Industry Data News, August 19-23.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

US travel loses in China war

23 August 2019

Tourism Economics (TE) reports*:

[] The China/US trade war forecast to reduce visitors in the US from China by 1.9mn and US$11bn in visitor spend over 2018-20. See below for details.

[] Visitors in the US from China fell -5.7% in 2018; they grew over 2004-17.

[] Visitors in the US from China spend US$5800 per visitor, compared with US$2500 for visitors from the UK, the largest overseas market for the US.

[] TE estimates that there were 351,000 fewer visitors in the US from China in 2018, which would mean US$2.0bn in reduced visitor spend. For this year, it forecasts 648,000 fewer visitors, thus US$3.8bn in reduced visitor spend.

[] TE calculates that if the trade war continues, there will be 857,000mn fewer visitors in 2020, thus US$5.3bn in reduced visitor spend.

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

TBA Tracking; Asia Pacific visitor arrivals, outbound travel

22 August 2019

Visitor arrivals

Our calculation of Asia Pacific visitor arrivals for latest-month March, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows +5.2%; previous month +7.5%. YTD +6.5%.

Outbound nationals/residents travel

Our calculation of Asia Pacific nationals/residents departures for latest-month April, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows +8.7%; previous month +11.5%. YTD +10.3%.

 

TBA Tracking: World hotel results, Sales by Europe’s big-3 airline groups

21 August 2019

World hotel results

The May hotel-track from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows occupancy growth in points: World -0.9; Asia Pacific -3.9; Europe +0.7; US +0.5.

Seat sales by Europe’s big-3 airline groups

Our calculation of seats sold by the big-3 airline groups in Europe in July, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows for AF+KL+A5+HV +2%, BA+EI+IB+VY +4%, LH+LX+OS+EW+SN +3%. Previous month +4%, +8%, +6%.

 

STR hotel reports

20 August 2019

STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports:

[] On US hotels 11-17 August: occupancy -1.0% to 71.7%, average room rate +0.4% to US$130.89.

[] On US hotels in July: occupancy +0.4% to 73.8%, average room rate +0.7% to US$135.04.

[] STR with HNN (Hotel News Now; combined ‘HS’) report*:

-Asia Pacific. Supply +3.6%, demand +2.7%. Hotels or rooms or period not given.

-Brazil. Demand +3.5% in 2017, +7.6% in 2018.

-Dubai. Hotels/rooms forecast to grow +31.8%/46.7% through 2021.

*Notes. The HS report focuses on hotel revpar (revenue per available room), which has little marketing value to those outside the hotel business. As a result, we have reduced our report to locations where measures other than revpar are given.

 

Travel business updates

19 August 2019

[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in July at 7.9mn + 1.4%, YTD 48.1mn + 3.5%.

[] PCW (Phocuswright, a travel research company specialising in online data) reports* that in 2018, total travel bookings grew +7.3% to US$1.4tn, and online travel bookings grew twice as fast – no data.

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] Thailand’s DMO has a quarterly Tourism Confidence Index. It was at 100 in both Q1 and Q2, and is also forecast to be 100 in Q3.

Ratings range over 0-200; 100 is normal, -100 below, +100 above. We do not have confidence in the TCI but believes the motivation is important.

In addition, the TCI includes forecasts – not usually part of an Index. TCI forecasts 9.7mn +7.1% visitors in Q3, and 40.06mn +4.7% in all-2019. Unfortunately, the DMO has stopped producing regular visitor totals, and so progress has become difficult to track.

 

end

Travel Industry Data News, August 12-16

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Travel Industry Data News, August 12-16

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

North America travel business updates

16 August 2019

[] At end June, Canada’s hotel construction pipeline was 273 +14% hotels with 35,787 +20% rooms, according to Lodging Econometrics.

This comprises (no growth given for following) under construction 92/11,118 hotels/rooms, due to start construction in the next 12 months 95/11,097, ‘early planning stage’ 86/13,572.

In H1, 28/3213 were opened, in H2 23/2579 are expected to open, in 2020 64/6758, in 2021 67/7428.

The latest data we have from rival STR shows 8011 -8.7% rooms under construction.

[] ARC (the Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines), reports for July (any rounding by ARC): air tickets sold US$8.0bn +4.3%; average US roundtrip ticket US$498  +3%; passenger trips 25.1mn +3.5% (domestic – +3.2%, international +4.1%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$6.9mn +7.3%; EMD transactions +2%.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels 4-10 August: occupancy -1.4% to 74.1%, average room rate +0.4% to US$133.36.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) with Tourism Economics, part of Oxford Economics (unrelated to the university) – together here, ST – have lowered their forecast for this year for US hotels. The data:

-What ST call overall performance – measured as revpar (revenue per available room) – for 2019 has been lowered from the +2.3% forecast this February to +2.0% in June, and now +1.6%.

-2019 occupancy +0.2% (ST were forecasting +0.1% in June), average room rate +1.4% (+1.9%).

-2020 occupancy -0.3% (-0.2%), average room rate +1.4% (+2.2%).

 

Our outlook for travel

15 August 2019

The following is extracted from our input for an external report.

[] Assessment of travel business in the past four months compared to what we would expect for that period:

-Much worse.

  Our outlook for this period was not positive, and this was the outcome. The main reasons:

-Negative trade/economic/finance figures/comment.

-Plus anti-‘others’ comment (Italy v EU, UK v EU, US v World, Japan v Korea, China v Hong Kong/others).

-Plus populist anti-flying activity – to which the travel business is not responding

[] Assessment of travel business in the next four months compared to what we would expect for that period:

-Much worse.

  Same reasoning. Outlook is not positive, and this seems unlikely to change in the next 12 months. Again, there are too many negative factors, and too many circumstances that may get worse.

  If there were only one or two negatives, that might not be a problem, but if there are more (we could count 10), there is a high mathematical chance that at least one will ‘explode’.

 

Travel business updates

14 August 2019

[] According to Flight Right:

-Travellers from France (FR wrongly defines these as ‘French’) in July represent a 12.2% share of the annual total, August 11.9%.

-10.2% of those (presumed for both months) travel by air.

[] Research & Markets* (RM), a company, forecasts that what it describes as the ‘India outbound tourism market to GCC countries’ will be US$24bn ‘by 2025’ – meaning in 2024. Without further data, and for other reasons, this is a meaningless forecast.

*Notes: We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.

[] Global Data*, a data and analytics company, forecasts that AAGR (annual average growth rate) of Mexico visitors will be +8.9% over 2016-19 and +7.1% 2020-23. It blames this slight fall on closing its overseas promotional offices under the country’s new populist/cut-costs new government.

GD shows (our estimates from GD data) 38mn visitors in 2016, 49mn 2019, 53mn 2020, 65mn 2023. Our database (based on data from World Tourism Organization) shows 35mn +9.3% in 2016, 39mn +12.0% 2017, 41mn +5.5% 2018, +4.8% YTD 2019.

This other-source data seems to contradict GD commentary. It shows that Mexico visitor growth slowed in 2018, and again this year. We believe this is related more to verbal-aggression by the US government against Mexico, which would probably slow travel into Mexico from its main source, the US.

*Notes:

-We have found in other reports that Global Data sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.

 

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks

13 August 2019

The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in July for US hotel companies was 4883 -1.0% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was +20.0%.

The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ for July, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 200.

The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ for July, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 202.

The ‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ for July, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows: World 225, Asia Pacific 81, Europe 198, US 395.

The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in July, from the current edition of our monthly Net Value report, was at 150.

The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong and New York, as well as Shanghai), in July from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 104.

Notes: The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at February 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

 

TBA Tracking: Travel Traffic Indices – Europe, US

12 August 2019

Europe

Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ from the current Europe edition of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows monthly traffic growth* of: 2019: Jun +4%E; May +3.5%P. (Percentage change over previous year.

US

Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows monthly traffic growth* of: 2019: Jun +4%E; May +4.3%P.

*Notes:

-Airline seats sold & RPKs, airport passengers, hotel occupancies, resident departures, travel agency $ sales, visitor arrivals.

-Percentage change over previous year; E=estimate, P=provisional.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Travel Industry Data News, August 5-9

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Travel Industry Data News, August 5-9

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

TBA Tracking: Travel Stock Indices: airlines, China, hotels

9 August 2019

[] Airline stocks worldwide

The July ‘TBA-100 Index’ of airline stock prices worldwide, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows 202. Previous month 201. (Base 100: December 2004 or when first listed.)

[] China travel stocks

The July ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong and New York, as well as Shanghai), from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows 104. Previous month 117. (Base 100: December 2018.)

[] Hotel stocks worldwide

The July ‘TBA-100 Index’ of hotel stock prices worldwide, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows 200. Previous month 195. (Base 100: December 2000 or when first listed.)

 

TBA Tracking: Travel Traffic Indices – Asia Pacific, world

8 August 2019

[] Asia Pacific

Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ from the current Asia Pacific edition of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows monthly traffic growth* of: 2019: Jun +4%E; May +4.3%P.

[] World

Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows monthly traffic growth* of: 2019: Jun +5%E; May +4.4%P.

*Notes:

-Airline seats sold & RPKs, airport passengers, hotel occupancies, resident departures, travel agency $ sales, visitor arrivals.

-Percentage change over previous year; E=estimate, P=provisional.

 

Travel business updates

7 August 2019

[] Travel Mole reports that France-based Accor Hotels has added 15 hotels in Singapore by signing a franchise with Global Premium Hotels. All will be refurbished and rebranded – one Mercure, one Ibis Styles, 13 Ibis Budget. Accor now has 30/7625 hotels/rooms in Singapore.

[] After a fast start to the year, visitor arrivals by air into Bali fell -0.5% in H1.

[] IATA (International Air Transport Association) reports June RPKs +5.0%, ASKs +3.3%, load factor 84.4% +1.4pt. RPKs by region – Asia Pacific +4.7%, Europe +5.7%, Middle East +7.8%, North America +3.1%.

International RPKs +5.4% – Asia Pacific +4.0%, Europe +5.6%, Middle East +8.1%, North America +3.5%.

Domestic RPKs +4.4% – Australia -1.2%, Brazil -5.7%, China +8.3%, India +7.9%, Japan +2.4%, Russia +10.3%, US +3.1%.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels 28 July through 3 August: occupancy -0.8% to 74.8%, average room rate -0.3% to US$133.03.

 

Air Asia H1

6 August 2019

Analysis on Air Asia (including AAX) results from our database:

-Seat sales 45.4mn +11.2% – slowest growth since 2015 when both AA Indonesia and AAX reported big falls – -22% and -18%.

-AA Japan still slow – despite +79% growth that might seem to indicate strength. At the same stage of its development, AA India was 3x bigger than AAJ is now.

-Group seat factor 85%, same as 2018. OK, but should be closer to 90%.

-AAX in trouble. Seat sales of the main Malaysia operation -6%, although +1% when Thai AAX included. Indonesia AAX remains shutdown. But AA does not publish all operating data for Thai AAX, and so not possible to make fuller analysis.

 

Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index

5 August 2019

Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 150 in July. Previous month 144.

Comments:

-After a few bad months, this one was better. Only one stock (Expedia) fell, but fractionally (-0.2%), although another (Travelport) was flat.

-Trivago, the company we identified earlier as being in trouble, was actually the fastest growing. But it is still below its end-2018 price, and only half its launch price.

-The three slowest – Booking, Expedia, Travelport – are all US companies. Is that indicative? Their stockmarkets were also slow, but in each case the companies performed worse than their stockmarkets.

-All except Trivago are now above their end-2018 prices.

-The two Spain-based companies, Amadeus and eDreams, lead our Index.

-China’s cTrip (US quoted), given its widespread good publicity, does not seem to impress investors so much. Although above its end-2018 price, it is still below its baseline price end-2015.

*Notes: NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech. The Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US – one of which, cTrip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for cTrip, end-2016 for Trivago.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, July 29-August 2.

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Travel Industry Data News, July 29-August 2.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Travel business updates

2 August 2019

[] Flightright, a platform for air passenger rights, estimates that 4500 flights from France were delayed or cancelled in H1, which would mean about 732,000 passengers. That compares with 1.4mn in 2018, so -48%. Potential compensation this year would be US$206mn (€183mn).

[] Ryanair profits fell 21% in Q1. It forecasts they will be down by 6% in H1.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels 21-27 July: occupancy -1.0% to 77.5%, average room rate -0.5% to US$136.00.

 

TBA Tracking: July travel stocks’ ups-and-downs, shocks up-and-down

1 August 2019

Travel stock prices (Asia Pacific, Europe, US) in July. Airlines: biggest growth, Norwegian +12%; biggest fall, Air Asia -28%. Hotels: InterContinental +11%, Jinjiang -12%. Tech: Trivago +22%, Expedia -0.2%. China travel stocks (new): CITS +2%, China United -8%. Others: TUI (UK quote) +6%, Thomas Cook -58% (sic).

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, American +20%; biggest fall, Lufthansa -12%. Hotels: Wynn +16%, Peninsula -8%. Tech: eDreams +24%, Travelport 0.0%. China travel stocks (new): Air China (China quote) +13%, Jinjiang (China quote) -0.2%. Others: Avis +24%, Thomas Cook -24%.

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 225, Asia Pacific 81, Europe 198, US 395. Index previous month: World 224, Asia Pacific 88, Europe 193, US 391.

TBA China Travel Stocks Index (new; quotes from China, Hong Kong, US): 104; previous month 108.

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 150; previous month 144.

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Istanbul +6%; biggest fall Korea -5%. Previous month: biggest growth New York-Nasdaq +7%; biggest fall India -1%.

Comments:

-Norwegian top!? In the month when it lost its longtime leader, Bjorn Kjos (see our September PinT, People-in-Travel), and the chairman said things must change, surely this is a vote of faith?

-Among airlines, longtime loser Air France-KLM nearly made the top spot, also with +12% but a fraction below Norwegian.

-Actually, India’s Jet was at the bottom, but Jet is a non-operating airline, and so this is a financial bet on the sale of its assets, and perhaps a weak hope that the airline will relaunch.

-The market also did not like ICAG, where its price on the Madrid stockmarket was down -12%.

-For travel-tech companies, Trivago needs the positive push it got in July. Unfortunately, its price is still a little below its end-2018 price, and way below its launch price.

-For Others, the market seems to think this is near the end for Thomas Cook. Yet is this also a vote against travel agencies? Not enough people are buying from travel agencies. And if that is hurting an agency with excellent name-recognition as generally-good reputation, what chance for the others?

-(Er, fastest-growing Others was another travel-agency group, TUI, so what does that do to the analysis above?)

-At Boeing, in the news negatively in recent months due to the grounding of its B737max aircraft, its share price was down -6%. That might not seem too bad, but it is for such a blue-chip stock.

-For our China travel stocks, the results are hard to analyse – highest and lowest were both travel agency groups. Best was CITS, worst China United.

-Among stockmarkets, a surprising number fell; half – 13 out of the 25 we track.

-With the US market in the headlines, its stockmarkets look weak. Growth averaged +1% for the five US indices that we track.

-Yet it was another fall in Asia Pacific that pushed the world average to a 1-point fall. Although so many commentators forecast that it would be Asia that pulled the world into growth, there seem to be fewer that are remarking that Asia is holding growth back.

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

France’s summer

31 July 2019

France visitor-nights in July* were +3%. Other details:

-Mediterranean coast -2% to -8%, Atlantic coast +3-6%, Mountains +3-6%. (Also reported in the same study as +4%.)

-French* domestic leisure* travellers July and August 31.5mn +4.3%.

-Fastest growth (presumed in bookings), +7%, was in private accommodation (AirBnB, Abritel, etc). For the year-to-date (not specified) growth was +8%.

-In the PACA region of the Cote d’Azur private accommodation represented 66% capacity share, and 40% of nights.

-Upmarket camping (yes, there are such groups) +4%.

-Hotels +2%. (Also reported in the same study as +3%.)

*Notes:

-Source: Protourisme (PT).

-Issued before end-July, so we presume these are estimates for that month, and forecasts for the two months, but PT does not clarify.

-Noted as ‘French’ but may be all-residents travelling within France.

-Note clear how PT can categorise arrivals in, say, the Mediterranean coast are leisure travellers. (It actually reports ‘vacation’, but this also is a fluid measure.)

 

TBA Tracking; China outbound – monthly

30 July 2019

We estimate that outbound travel from China, including travel to Hong Kong and Macau, grew +10.1% in the latest month. The earlier month was +19.5%, then +7.5% 24.3%, +21.6%, +20.7%. Details in the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

IATA’s annual stats report

29 July 2019

IATA (International Air Transport Association) has published its WATS (World Air Transport Statistics), on 2018 data. Information includes* (all rounded percentage figures are IATA-rounded):

-Airlines seats sold 4.4bn +6.9% (in 2017 4.1bn +7.3%, 2016 3.8bn +7%).

-Asia Pacific sold the most seats, 1.6bn +9.2%, a 37.1% share (1.5bn +10.6% 36.3%, 1.3bn +11.3% 35%); Europe 1.1bn +6.6% 26.2% (1.1bn +8.2% 26.3%, 992.4mn +6.1% 26%); North America 989.4mn +4.8% 22.6% (941.8mn +3.2% 23% 911.5mn +3% 24%); Middle East 224.2mn +4.0% 5.1% (216.1mn +4.6% 5.3% 206.1mn +9.1% 5%).

-Top-5 airlines (same as in 2017) by total RPKs – American 330.6bn +2.0%, Delta 330bn +4.3%, United 329.6bn +6.0%, Emirates 302.3bn +4.6%, Southwest 214.6bn +3.3%.

-Top-5 international city-pairs, by seats sold: Hong Kong-Taipei 5.4mn -0.4%, Bangkok Suvarnabhumi-Hong Kong 3.4mn +8.8%, Jakarta-Singapore 3.2mn -3.3%, Seoul Incheon-Osaka Kansai 2.9mn +16.5%, Kuala Lumpur–Singapore 2.8mn +2.1%. For 2017: HKG-TPE 5.4mn +1.8%, JKT-SIN 3.3mn +0.8%, BKK-HKG 3.1mn +3.5%, KUL–SIN 2.8mn -0.3%, HKG-SEL 2.7mn -2.2%. For 2016, top-3: HKG-TPE 5.2mn +2.1%; JKT-SIN 3.4mn +0.9%; BKK-HKG 3mn -3.1%.

-Top-5 domestic city-pairs: Jeju-Seoul Gimpo 14.5mn +7.6%, Fukuoka – Tokyo Haneda 7.6mn +0.9%, Melbourne Tullamarine-Sydney 7.6mn -2.1%, Sapporo-Tokyo Haneda 7.3mn -1.5%, Beijing-Shanghai Hongqiao 6.4mn +0.4%. For 2017: Jeju-Seoul Gimpo 13.5mn +14.8%, Melbourne Tullamarine-Sydney 7.8mn +0.4%, Fukuoka-Tokyo Haneda 7.6mn +6.1%, Sapporo-Tokyo Haneda 7.4mn +4.6%, Beijing-Shanghai Hongqiao 6.4mn +1.9%. For 2016, top-3: Jeju-Seoul Gimpo 11.6mn +4.6%; Sapporo-Tokyo Haneda 7.7mn -1.2%; Fukuoka-Tokyo Haneda 7.3mn -4% (probably 4.0).

-Nationality*. Change of system (earlier was systemwide – although we noted that measuring would be difficult because usually no passport is required on domestic flights). As a result, there are no direct comparisons with earlier data, although we also show earlier data.

In 2018, seats sold on international routes: UK 126.2mn 8.6% share; US 111.5mn 7.6%; China 97mn 6.6%; Germany 94.3mn 6.4%; France 59.8mn 4.1%.

In 2017 systemwide US 632mn 18.6% share (2016 810mn 21%), China 555mn 16.3% (no 2016 data), India 161.5mn 4.7% (ditto), UK 147mn 4.3% (ditto), Germany 114.4mn 3.4% (ditto).

-Alliances. Shown this year as share of total traffic (the three have 56.1%); we have recalculated to show, as for 2017, share of RPKs of each: Star 39.0% (39% in 2017, 38% in 2016), Sky Team 33.5% (33%, NA), One World 27.5% (28%, NA).

-New Model Airlines, a definition that IATA used in 2017, seems to have been replaced this year by the more-common LCC (low cost carrier). Not unfortunately our definition, NFA (no-frills-airlines), see Notes. IATA’s NMAs appeared to combine our NFAs, low-cost-airlines, charter airlines, and perhaps others.

Partly because of this, IATA does not show comparative data. For 2018 for what it now names LCCs, their capacity (ASKs) grew +13.4%, almost double total growth +6.9%. LCC capacity (ASKs) share 21%, which it compares with 11% in 2004. LCC capacity by seats 29% (16% in 2004).

In 2016, NMAs had a 28.3% share of all seats sold, up from 27.1%; no data for 2017.

-Other data: 81.9% seat factor (no comparison with 2017); 22,000 +6.3% city pairs(double the 10,250 in 1998); the cost of air transport (US$0.78 per RTK, revenue tonne-kilometre), more than half the figure 20 years ago.

*Notes:

-Some comparative data is from our database.

-High positions of the UK and US are partly explained by a large number of nationals living in other countries. For instance, Americans in Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, UK. And British in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Singapore, US. All these would be counted under their nationality, UK or US. We estimate about 10% should be deducted from IATA’s totals.
NFA=no-frills-airline. We believe that among the many essential elements that make a successful NFA are: shorthaul point-to-point routes; market freedom in terms of fares, routes; single aircraft type; where relevant, competition against parent airline allowed; extremely-low fares when bought at least three months in advance, say US$25; one fare at one time (no wholesale rates, travel agency commissions, etc); no refunds; no (free) service frills; single economy-class cabin; no (free) seat selection; two toilets for 150-seat aircraft; 25-minute turnaround time; cabin crew do daytime cabin cleaning; name and flight change charged at least US$25 each; no trade shows; plenty of consumer advertising and promotion; and much more. Developments in technology are making some of these ‘requirements’ less important.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

TBA Tracking: July travel stocks’ ups-and-downs, shocks up-and-down

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TBA Tracking: July travel stocks’ ups-and-downs, shocks up-and-down

 

Travel stock prices (Asia Pacific, Europe, US) in July.

 

Airlines: biggest growth, Norwegian +12%; biggest fall, Air Asia -28%.

Hotels: InterContinental +11%, Jinjiang -12%.

Tech: Trivago +22%, Expedia -0.2%.

China travel stocks (new): CITS +2%, China United -8%.

Others: TUI (UK quote) +6%, Thomas Cook -58% (sic).

 

Previous month:

Airlines: biggest growth, American +20%; biggest fall, Lufthansa -12%.

Hotels: Wynn +16%, Peninsula -8%.

Tech: eDreams +24%, Travelport 0.0%.

China travel stocks (new): Air China (China quote) +13%, Jinjiang (China quote) -0.2%.

Others: Avis +24%, Thomas Cook -24%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 225, Asia Pacific 81, Europe 198, US 395. Index previous month: World 224, Asia Pacific 88, Europe 193, US 391.

 

TBA China Travel Stocks Index (new; quotes from China, Hong Kong, US): 104; previous month 108.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 150; previous month 144.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Istanbul +6%; biggest fall Korea -5%. Previous month: biggest growth New York-Nasdaq +7%; biggest fall India -1%.

 

Comments:

 

-Norwegian top!? In the month when it lost its longtime leader, Bjorn Kjos (see our September PinT, People-in-Travel), and the chairman said things must change, surely this is a vote of faith?

 

-Among airlines, longtime loser Air France-KLM nearly made the top spot, also with +12% but a fraction below Norwegian.

 

-Actually, India’s Jet was at the bottom, but Jet is a non-operating airline, and so this is a financial bet on the sale of its assets, and perhaps a weak hope that the airline will relaunch.

 

-The market also did not like ICAG, where its price on the Madrid stockmarket was down -12%.

 

-For travel-tech companies, Trivago needs the positive push it got in July. Unfortunately, its price is still a little below its end-2018 price, and way below its launch price.

 

-For Others, the market seems to think this is near the end for Thomas Cook. Yet is this also a vote against travel agencies? Not enough people are buying from travel agencies. And if that is hurting an agency with excellent name-recognition as generally-good reputation, what chance for the others?

 

-(Er, fastest-growing Others was another travel-agency group, TUI, so what does that do to the analysis above?)

 

-At Boeing, in the news negatively in recent months due to the grounding of its B737max aircraft, its share price was down -6%. That might not seem too bad, but it is for such a blue-chip stock.

 

-For our China travel stocks, the results are hard to analyse – highest and lowest were both travel agency groups. Best was CITS, worst China United.

 

-Among stockmarkets, a surprising number fell; half – 13 out of the 25 we track.

 

-With the US market in the headlines, its stockmarkets look weak. Growth averaged +1% for the five US indices that we track.

 

-Yet it was another fall in Asia Pacific that pushed the world average to a 1-point fall. Although so many commentators forecast that it would be Asia that pulled the world into growth, there seem to be fewer that are remarking that Asia is holding growth back.

 

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.