Travel Industry Data News, November 25-29

FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, November 25-29

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

TBA Tracking: Air passenger counts in France, Germany, UK

29 November 2019

A brief ‘main-points’ review of latest air passenger counts* to/from France, Germany, UK over selected country-pairs in Europe, UAE, US, growth only:

To/from France (Paris only): Germany -3%, UK -2%. UAE -3%, US +5%. All +1%.

To/from Germany: Italy +8%, Spain -5%, UK -5%. UAE -5%, US +3%. All +2%.

To/from UK: Germany -5%. UAE +5%, US +0.2%. All +2%.

*Data from Aeroports de Paris, Statistisches Bundesamt, Civil Aviation Authority, and most excerpted from our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

TBA Tracking: Airports in Europe

28 November 2019

A brief ‘main-points’ review of latest airport-passenger throughputs, growth only, usually for larger airports:

Main airports: Amsterdam -1%, Berlin (two) -4%, Frankfurt (two) +1%, Istanbul (two) +2%, London (five) +0.1%, Madrid +8%, Paris (2/3) +1%, Rome (two) +2%. All +3%.

‘Low-fare airports’ (those with sizeable portion of no-frills-airline traffic): Berlin Schonefeld -13%, London Luton +8%, London Stansted -0.4%, Milan Bergamo +8%, Palma +1%, Paris Orly -9%. All +2%.

*Data mainly from ACI (Airports Council International), some directly from airports, and most excerpted from our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

Done deals

27 November 2019

Global Data, a data and analytics company, reports on deals* by companies in the travel business in Q3. Findings include:

[] All deals.

-Deals done worth US$2.58bn +7.1% over Q2, and +35.1% over average of last four-Qs.

-Asia Pacific deals US$1.08bn.

-Country deals: US 25 deals US$731.92mn, China 19, India 10.

-Venture Financing US$7.26bn +121.0%. Top-5 US$1.61bn 62.4% share.

[] US deals.

-Total deals 90 +40.6% over Q2, +20% over average of last four-Qs.

-M&A Deals done worth US$5.61bn -74.8% over Q2, -36.5% over average of last four-Qs.

-US share 40.4% of world total US$13.9bn.

-Top-5 M&A deals US$3.78bn 67.3% share.

[] UK deals.

-Deals done 26 worth US$27.27mn -7.1%, also (sic) -7.1% over average of last four-Qs.

-M&A Deals done worth US$27.27m -99.2% over Q2, -98.7% over average of last four-Qs, 45.2% share.

-US share 0.2% of world total US$13.9bn.

-Top-5 M&A deals US$12.32mn, which we calculate was a 45.2% share.

*Notes: Details as reported by GD. Not all follow standard categorisation.

 

What’s working; what’s not. Airlines in Europe

26 November 2019

Our summary of traffic results* for the leading airlines (not, where relevant, airline groups) in Europe. Seat sales (newly available for British), in alphabetical order: Air France (once again available separated from KLM) +3%; British +1%; Easyjet +11%; Lufthansa +2%; Ryanair +8%.

Notes (on notable details; on whole-group for Air France (=AFKL), British (=ICAG), Lufthansa (=LHG)):

-AFKL +3%, which this year might be described as ‘steady’. KLM also +3%. Transavia +7%, but slowing.

-ICAG +5%. Is Level (sic) not working? Only +9%; as a newish airline, that should be much faster – closer to +20%. Iberia +7%. AerLingus +1%; also too slow. Vueling +6%.

-Easyjet. But its monthly growth was just +2% – for an NFA, this is a collapse. Is this Brexit related?

-LHG +3%. Eurowings (our calculation) -1%. If our estimates are close, it seems that Lufthansa management has messed up again (earlier, management messed up German Wings). Austrian +6%. Brussels (our calculation) +6%. Lufthansa +2%. Swiss +6%.

-Ryanair. And its seat factor holding high, at 96% – but remember it has a misleading way of measuring this.

-Others of note: SAS at -2%, caused by a pilot strike last April.

*Excerpts from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, over January-September.

 

TBA Tracking: Visitor arrivals in Asia Pacific, latest

25 November 2019

A brief ‘main-points’ review of latest visitor-arrival counts*, growth only, usually for larger destinations:

Bali +8%, Hong Kong -34% (from China -35%), India +2%, Philippines +28%, Singapore +3%, Sri Lanka -22%.

*Data from various sources, mainly WTO, DMOs, government departments, and most excerpted from our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Months are latest available, but may be different between destinations.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

What’s working; what’s not. Airlines in Europe

FOXTROTS*

 

What’s working; what’s not. Airlines in Europe.

ICAG’s Level not working? LHG messing up Eurowings?

 

Our summary of traffic results* for the leading airlines (not, where relevant, airline groups) in Europe.

 

Seat sales (newly available for British), in alphabetical order: Air France (once again available separated from KLM) +3%; British +1%; Easyjet +11%; Lufthansa +2%; Ryanair +8%.

 

Notes (on notable details; on whole-group for Air France (=AFKL), British (=ICAG), Lufthansa (=LHG)):

 

-AFKL +3%, which this year might be described as ‘steady’. KLM also +3%. Transavia +7%, but slowing.

 

-ICAG +5%. Is Level (sic) not working? Only +9%; as a newish airline, that should be much faster – closer to +20%. Iberia +7%. AerLingus +1%; also too slow. Vueling +6%.

 

-Easyjet. But its monthly growth was just +2% – for an NFA, this is a collapse. Is this Brexit related?

 

-LHG +3%. Eurowings (our calculation) -1%. If our estimates are close, it seems that Lufthansa management has messed up again (earlier, management messed up German Wings). Austrian +6%. Brussels (our calculation) +6%. Lufthansa +2%. Swiss +6%.

 

-Ryanair. And its seat factor holding high, at 96% – but remember it has a misleading way of measuring this.

 

-Others of note: SAS at -2%, caused by a pilot strike last April.

 

*Excerpts from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, over January-September.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, November 18-22.

FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, November 18-22.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

TBA Tracking: Resident/Citizen departures in Asia Pacific, latest

22 November 2019

A brief ‘main-points’ review of latest departure counts*, growth only, usually for larger markets.

Australia +2%, China (our estimates) +8%, Hong Kong +2%, India (our estimates) +5%, Japan +7%, Korea -4%.

*Data from various sources, mainly DMOs, government departments, and most excerpted from our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Months are latest available, but may be different between markets.

 

Travel business updates

21 November 2019

[] ITB China 2020 has started an Inbound Travel segment, resulting in what it reports as 25% growth in hosted buyers to 1050, of which 200 will be China-focused international travel buyers.

Based on our database, that growth is difficult to analyse. ITBC reported only ‘Chinese’ buyers for its event earlier this year, and not other nationalities, and not non-hosted buyers. On that figure, the new segment would mean +23.5% growth.

[] Visitors to North Africa will total 37.4mn in 2021 (GD says ‘ by 2022’), says Global Data. It reports that as +4.8% AAGR (annual average growth rate). Because of big changes in recent years, earlier patterns are not a good guide; our database indicates AAGR was +13.4% over 2015-18 but +3.9% over 2014-18.

 

Hotel business updates

20 November 2019

STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels:

-10-16 November occupancy -3.6% to 64.2%, average room rate -0.6% to US$129.96.

-October occupancy -0.8% to 69.3%, average room rate -0.5% to US$133.34.

-2019 forecast occupancy -0.2% to 66.0%, average room rate +1.0% to US$131.29. Among chain scale segments, only Economy +0.4% and Independent +0.3% are forecast to report occupancy growth, Luxury forecast to have the largest ADR growth +1.9%. (Forecast with Tourism Economics.)

-2020 forecast occupancy -0.4% to 65.7%, average room rate +0.9% to US$132.50. (Forecast with Tourism Economics.)

 

WTTC on medical tourism

19 November 2019

Excerpts from a WTTC* report on medical tourism:

[] US largest market for inbound and outbound spend.

[] US outbound spend, share 20%. US nationals spent US$2.3bn in 2017. Not clear how WTTC can separate-out non-citizens living in the US, and also add US nationals living in other countries.

[] Kuwait 2nd largest outbound spend US$1.5bn in 2015. Note 1, that year is different from US dates, 2, not specified whether Kuwait nationals only, or whether including the large number of foreigners living in Kuwait.

[] Nigeria 3rd largest outbound spend US$783mn in 2017, a 13.5% share of total outbound spend. Not the same category as for the US, which is share of total medical spend.

[] ‘Leading’ (no other definition) emerging destinations for spend – Turkey, Thailand, Jordan, Costa Rica, Mexico. Reason for order not given.

[] Spend on international medical tourism US$11bn in 2017, up +358% since 2000. We calculate that as +9.4% AAGR (annual average growth rate).

[] Medical-spend share 1.2% of total visitor spend in 2017; 0.6% in 2000.

[] WTTC names Europe markets in the top-10 – Netherlands, France, Belgium, Austria, Germany. Again, reason for order not known. Spend in each of the five is put at US$300-678mn.

[] Inbound US spend US$4bn in 2017, a 36% share of medical tourism spend.

[] Following the US, largest inbound spend France US$800mn, Turkey US$763mn.

[] ‘Emerging economies’ for medical tourism noted were Thailand US$589 million 1.0% share of inbound visitor spend, Costa Rica US$451mn 12.1%, Mexico US$315mn 1.5%.

[] Inbound spend; five are European countries, with Belgium, the UK and Hungary joining France and Turkey, spending US$417-636mn.

*Notes: WTTC (World Travel & Tourism Council), a lobby group for the travel business.

 

International travel counts

18 November 2019

Excerpts from II* findings on world inbound and outbound travel over Jan-Aug: (Any rounding by II; see Notes for important qualification/comment.)

-Outbound. Grew +3.9% -1pt. Asia fastest growth +6%; China +9%. North America (II say ‘Americans’) +4.5%. Europe (‘Europeans’) +2.5%.

-Inbound. Asia +6%. Europe +3.5%. ‘America’ (sic; not clear if this is the 23 countries in North America, or just the US) +2%.

-Holiday travel* grew +4%, business travel flat. Within business travel, MICE travel +2%, ‘traditional business travel’ -4%.

-City breaks +8%, giving it a 30% share, behind sun-and-beach (share not given), +2%. ‘Round trips’ +3%. Cruise travel +6%.

-‘Possibility of terror’ in ‘destinations like’ Israel, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia is ‘very high’. We do not which other destinations are ‘like’ those listed, or why these five are listed in this order.

-US, Mexico, South Africa, France have a ‘poor image’ for safety. We do not know what this means, nor how they are different to the other five.

-‘Destinations like’ Scandinavia, Switzerland, Austria, Ireland, Portugal, Australia, Canada are perceived ‘safe, where the terror threat is seen as low’. Again, we do not know which other destinations are ‘like’ those listed. Note that Scandinavia is a 3-country region (and we are surprised Finland is not included), not a destination.

–IPK forecasts outbound travel +4%, ‘Asians’ +5%, ‘Europeans’ 3-4%, ‘Americans’ +3%. II do not explain on what these growths are based – estimates/forecasts for 2019? In 2018, IPK forecast +6% growth for 2019 (+8% for North and South America, +6% Asia, +5% Europe). As the figures IPK is now reporting for part of 2019 are much lower than it forecast for all-2019, the base for 2020 forecasts needs clarification.

*Notes:

-II=Germany-based IPK International (IPKI), a research company, with ITB Berlin (ITBB), the big travel trade exhibition in the city. Unfortunately, II are often casual in reporting their findings, although we believe they are precise in their research work.

-Another common fault with II reports is that they mix categorisation. Would a Singapore passport holder living in Paris be included in II’s ‘Asian’ count into Spain? And a France passport holder living in Singapore? These are common faults of non-specialists, but II is supposed to be a leader among specialists!

-For ‘holiday travel’, we believe II mean non-business travel, sometimes known as ‘leisure travel’.

-Earlier in 2019, II introduced ‘roundtrips’ as a category in some reports. There has been no further definition although the term makes no sense as presumably 99.9% of trips are roundtrips. In other reports, II have had a category ‘tour holidays’ (sometimes ‘touring’). II also never defined this, and as it was open to interpretation, we wondered how those questioned defined it.

-At press time, II had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, November 11-15

FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, November 11-15.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Travel business updates

15 November 2019

[] Greece’s DMO reports September air arrivals +1.3%, YTD +3.3%. Bank of Greece all arrivals August +11.0%, YTD +3.6%; spend +16.1%, YTD +13.6%.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports hotel-rooms pipeline* at October:

-Asia Pacific 450,231 +20.7%. We calculate from our database that is -4.3% on the previous number reported by STR earlier this year.

-Europe 205,383 +44.3% (sic). +6.8%.

-US 205,299 +5.5%. -0.3%.

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] OAG* reports on India:

-Domestic seat sales were +19% in 2018.

-US$8bn digital flight retailing market.

*UK-based OAG (formerly/formally Axio Aviation Holdings) provides comprehensive data on airline flights from 900 airlines and 4000 airports. Its flight-status database provides 35mn flight status updates daily, and processes 1.4mn requests. It is owned by UK-based Vitruvian Partners, a private-equity firm.

[] Research & Markets (RM), a company, reports:

–Affluent customers spend 21-32% of their money on travel. No further details.

–Japan targets 40mn visitors in 2020 and 60mn in 2030. That would be +4.1% AAGR (annual average growth rate). We calculate AAGR 2008-18 was much faster, +14.1%. Numerical growth would be lower – 20mn additional visitors in 2030 over 2030, compared with 23mn 2018 over 2008.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels 3-9 November: occupancy +0.1% to 69.0%, average room rate +1.9% to US$132.66.

[] ARC (the Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines), reports for October (any rounding by ARC):

-Air tickets sold US$8.3bn +1.5%. YTD US$84.4bn +2.8%.

-Average US roundtrip ticket US$506 -$3; passenger trips 25.4mn +1.5% (domestic – +2%, international +0.5%).

-EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$6.7mn +11%; EMD transactions +18%.

 

Done deals

14 November 2019

Global Data, a data and analytics company, reports on deals by companies in Europe’s travel business in Q3. Findings include:

-Deals done worth US$5.71bn +5.1% over average Oct 18-Sep 19.

-104 deals compared with average Oct 18-Sep 19 of 99 deals.

-M&A (mergers and acquisitions) accounted for 64 deals worth US$4.08bn, 61.5% share. Venture Financing 23 US$891.25mn 22.1%, Private Equity 17 US$742.83mn 16.4%.

-Top-5 deals worth US$4.52bn 79.1% share.

 

Travel business updates

13 November 2019

[] IATA (International Air Transport Association) reports for September RPKs +3.8%, ASKs +3.3%, load factor 81.9%, +0.4pt. RPKs by region – Asia Pacific +4.8%, Europe +2.6%, Middle East +2.0%, North America +5.1%.

International RPKs +3.0% – Asia Pacific +3.6%, Europe +2.9%, Middle East +1.8%, North America +4.3%.

Domestic RPKs +5.3%- Australia +1.8%, Brazil +1.7%, China +8.9%, India +1.6%, Japan +10.1%, Russia +3.2%, US +6.0%.

[] PCW (Phocuswright, a travel research company specialising in online data) reports gross bookings of publicly reported OTAs* were US$177.9bn +11% in H1; it was +21% H1 2018.

 

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks

12 November 2019

The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in October for US hotel companies was 4641 +0.2% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was +14.0%.

The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ for October, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 183.

The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ for October, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 205.

The ‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ for October, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows: World 225, Asia Pacific 79, Europe 199, US 388.

The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in October, from the current edition of our monthly Net Value report, was at 156.

The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong and New York, as well as Shanghai), in October from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 93.

Notes: The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at February 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

 

Euromonitor’s outlook

11 November 2019

Some new forecasts by Euromonitor* (EM), a UK-based market research company:

-Average spend per trip US$1101 by 2024 (could be 2023); change not given, and quoted in US$, risky at this time of sizeable currency fluctuations.

-‘Tourism demand’ (presumed ‘visitor spend’) in the US ‘could see 9.6% wiped off potential growth’ by 2024. We presume this is a possible lowering of previous forecasts, but without principal data, this forecast has little meaning.

-Forecasts that ‘Brexit uncertainty’ and a ‘severe recession’ in Europe (EM usually excludes the UK when reporting on ‘Europe’, and sometimes it includes all Europe, other times just the 27/8 members of the European Union) will make no-frills-airlines and short-term rentals the ‘most popular travel choices’.

  EM seems to be the only main forecaster expecting ‘severe’ recession for ‘Europe’. Most others forecast a recession (which generally means when two consecutive Qs where their GDP is falling) for one market, Germany, albeit slow growth in a few others.

  ‘Most-popular’ presumably means above-50%. That is already the case for NFAs on intraEurope, but unlikely for all flights, although EM does not put dates on its forecast.

  EM does not define ‘short-term rentals’ (it could mean ‘private accommodation’ such as AirBnB properties), and so this also has little meaning.

–EM reports 59% of Europe’s population is ‘concerned about climate change’ to explain that ‘the move towards sustainable travel is on the rise’. That growth is no surprise (after all, it has been growing since it was identified, perhaps 20 years ago), but EM could help and forecast – 35% of leisure travellers will take trips billed as ‘sustainable’ in 2024 against 15% today?

-Middle East and Africa ‘enjoys sound growth’. EM forecasts departures will grow +5.6% by 2024. We have seen little outbound-travel data on these two areas. Similar measures from the WTO (World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO) this year show Saudi Arabia -4%, UAE +2%, and nothing on Africa. This does not seem to be ‘sound growth’, which we would think means +4-5%? And that +5.6% forecast, if for 2024, would mean a +1.1% annual average growth rate; to us, that looks slow.

*Notes: We have run a few critical reports on EM findings – most apparently due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, EM had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, November 4-8

FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, November 4-8

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Global Data’s outlook

8 November 2019

Global Data*, a data and analytics company, reports, for 2018:

-Bangkok had most visitors in Asia, 22.4mn, then Singapore 18.5mn, Tokyo 14.2mn. Change not given.

-The top-3 share was 40% of the top-10.

-Bangkok ‘most affordable’. Inexplicably, GD measures that in terms of a hotel-business measure – average room rate. As GD’s source is not specifically given, we cannot confirm this finding. Our ARR database shows four of GD’s top-10 lower than Bangkok – Kuala Lumpur, Macau, Pattaya, Phuket.

-Asian cities have a 70% share of the world top-10.

-Tokyo grew +60.5%, fastest of the top-10, over 2014-18. Tokyo’s official target is 25mn ‘by 2020’. We believe this is in 2020, not for 2019. We calculate that would be +29.8% annual average growth rate over 2018-20 (based on GD data and Tokyo forecasts), which would seem too high.

-Forecasts not backed with data:

1. Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Phnom Penh ‘fast emerging’ as the ‘new hot spots for…globetrotters’. Because these three are already sizeable destinations, ‘fast emerging’ needs statistical support. And not many travellers are ‘globetrotters’, or is GD just commenting on the few (under 10%?) who are?
2. Rising sea levels, ‘frequent irrational weather’, ‘tourism beyond its capacity’, ‘can make…Asian tourist destinations unsustainable in the near future’. We presume ‘tourism beyond its capacity’ is what is generally termed ‘overtourism’, although by definition there cannot be more visitors than that destination’s capacity. ‘Can’, ‘unsustainable’, ‘near future’, are vagaries unacceptable from a professional observer.

*Notes:

-We have found in other reports that Global Data sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

Travel business updates

7 November 2019

[] We calculate/comment:

–Europe is heading for a 2019 visitor arrivals total of 739.9mn, based on WTO’s +4.2% growth H1. That would be 29.8mn more visitors than in 2018.

–Ryanair’s October seat sales were only +5.3%. Although that is still better than growth at Europe’s main full-service-airline groups around Air France, British, Lufthansa, is Ryan’s extraordinary 15-year-rapid-growth over? No comparisons these days for other leading no-frills-airlines Air Asia, Easyjet, Southwest, who now report only quarterly totals.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels:

-27 October through 2 November: occupancy -0.3% to 62.7%, average room rate +0.6% to US$126.04.
-20-26 October: occupancy -0.2% to 70.5%, average room rate +0.2% to US$135.00.

[] TBA Tracking: Airline financial results compared.

Our ‘Comparing airline financial results’ compares airlines against our calculated non-industry-standard measures. Data from the current Asia Pacific edition of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. This extract shows revenue-per-seat-sold and operating-profit-per-seat-sold, in US$ for latest reported fiscal year; whole groups where relevant.

For Qantas US$216 US$15.66, Virgin Australia US$158  -US$1.93.

 

Travel business updates

6 November 2019

[] TBA Tracking: Visitor arrivals in Europe, latest

A brief main-points review of latest visitor-arrival counts, growth only. Data from various sources, mainly Tourmis, WTO, and most excerpted from our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst:

Destination international arrivals: France +0.3%, Germany +2%, Russia -1%, Spain +2%, UK -4%. Domestic arrivals: Portugal +9%, Sweden +7%.

City international arrivals: Amsterdam +12%, Copenhagen flat, Stockholm -7%, Vienna +9%. Domestic arrivals: Brussels +16%, Copenhagen +17%, Munich +7%, Stockholm +15%.

[] Done deals.

Global Data, a data and analytics company, reports on deals by companies in the US travel business in September. Findings include:

-Deals done worth US$7.12bn -7.7%, over average Oct 18-Sep 19.

-36 deals, over average Oct 18-Sep 19 of 39 deals.

-M&A (mergers and acquisitions) accounted for 26 deals worth US$1.23bn , 72.2% share. Venture Financing 8 US$85.35mn 22.2%, Private Equity 2 US$5.8bn 5.6%.

-Top-5 worth US$6.57bn 92.3% share.

-Top-5 deals: Korea’s Mirae Asset Global Investments’ US$5.8bn private equity with China’s Anbang Insurance; Imperial’s US$516.3mn asset transaction with US’s Caesars Entertainment; Kinepolis’s US$152.25mn purchase of MJR Theatres; Suffolk University’s US$63.5mn asset transaction with Hilton; Miami Southern Hotels’ US$37mn asset transaction with Stambul.

 

TBA Tracking: Travel Traffic Indices* – Asia Pacific, Europe, US, world

5 November 2019

Asia Pacific

Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ from the current Asia Pacific edition of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows monthly traffic growth* of: 2019: Aug +4.3%E; Jul -0.3%P.

Europe

Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ from the current Europe edition of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows monthly traffic growth* of: 2019: Aug +3.4%E; Jul +2.1%P.

US

Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows monthly traffic growth* of: 2019: Aug +2.8%E; Jul +4.0%P.

World

Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows monthly traffic growth* of: 2019: Aug +3.8%E; Jul +2.3%P.

*Notes:

-Airline seats sold & RPKs, airport passengers, hotel occupancies, resident departures, travel agency US$ sales, visitor arrivals.

-Percentage change over previous year; E=estimate, P=provisional.

 

TBA Tracking: Market Monitor

4 November 2019

An extract from the Market Monitor in current issues WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst – which also includes monthly growth data for principal travel companies in the three regions.

Percentage change unless noted otherwise. E=estimate, P=provisional, TBA=Travel Business Analyst.

[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, World: 2019: Jul +2.5%E; Jun +2.5%P.

[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, Asia Pacific: 2019: Jul -0.3%E; Jun +1.4%P.

[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, Europe: 2019: Jul +2.7%E; Jun +1.7%P.

[] TBA Travel Industry Traffic Index, US: 2019: Jul +4.2%E; Jun +2.9%P.

[] World airline stocks index, on 100: 2019: Aug +194; Jul 202. TBA.

[] World airport passengers, intl: 2019: Jul +3.1%; Jun +5.7%. ACI.

[] World air traffic, RPKs: 2019: Jul +3.6%; Jun +5.0%. IATA.

[] World hotel occupancy, pts: 2019: Jun +0.1; May 0.3. TBA.

[] World hotel rooms planned: 2019: Jul +21.3%; May +20.5%. STR/TBA.

[] World hotel stocks index, on 100: 2019: Aug +183; Jul 200. TBA.

[] World travel stocks index, on 100: 2019: Aug +217; Jul 225. TBA.

[] World travel-tech stocks index, on 100: 2019: Aug +147; Jul 150. Net Value.

[] World visitor arrivals: 2019: Mar +4.2%; Feb +4.6%; Jan +4.4%. WTO.

[] AsPac airlines seat sales: 2019: Jun +4.5%; May +4.5%. AAPA.

[] AsPac airport passengers, ttl: 2019: Jul +2.4%; Jun +2.1%. ACI.

[] AsPac air traffic, RPKs: 2019: Jul +5.2%; Jun +4.7%. IATA.

[] AsPac hotel occupancy, pts: 2019: Jun -1.8; May -2.0. TBA.

[] AsPac hotel rooms planned: 2019: Jul +27.0%; May +23.3%. STR TBA.

[] AsPac outbound travel, estimate: 2019: May +21.0%; Apr +9.8%. TBA.

[] AsPac travel stocks index, on 100: 2019: Aug +76; Jul 81. TBA.

[] AsPac visitor arrivals: 2019: Mar +4.9%; Feb +6.0%; Jan +6.4%. WTO.

[] Europe airlines seat sales: 2019: Jun total +6.4%, FSAs +4.4%, NFAs +9.2%. TBA.

[] Europe airport passengers, ttl: 2019: Jul +2.2%; Jun +4.7%. ACI.

[] Europe air traffic, RPKs: 2019: Jul +3.3%; Jun +5.7%. IATA.

[] Europe hotel occupancy, pts: 2019: Jun +3.1; May +0.4. TBA.

[] Europe hotel rooms planned: 2019: Jul +52.4% (sic); May +48.6% (sic). STR.

[] Europe travel stocks index, on 100: 2019: Aug +190; Jul 198. TBA.

[] US air international passengers: 2018: Sep +7.2%; Aug +6.7%E. gov.

[] US citizen departures, overseas: 2019: Mar +7.5%; Feb +9.9%.

[] US hotel occupancy, pts: 2019: Jun -1.0; May +0.7. Smith.

[] US hotel rooms planned: 2019: Jul +8.3%; May +9.9%. STR.

[] US travel agency sales: 2019: Jul +4.3%; Jun +0.4%. ARC.

[] US travel stocks index, on 100: 2019: Aug +385; Jul 395. TBA.

[] US visitor arrivals (2017 restated Sep 18): 2019: Jun -0.6%; May -0.8%.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, October 28 – November 1

FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, October 28 – November 1

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

TBA Tracking: October travel stocks’ ups and downs

1 November 2019

Travel stock prices (Asia Pacific, Europe, US) in October. Airlines: biggest growth, Norwegian +23%; biggest fall, Thai -17%. Hotels: Peninsula +18%, InterContinental -7%. Tech: cTrip +11%, Trivago -11%. China travel stocks (new): Air China +4%, Hainan Airlines -5%. Others: Airbus +11%, Boeing -9%.

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Easyjet +21%; biggest fall, Thai -11%. Hotels: Mandarin-Oriental +10%, Peninsula -10%. Tech: LastMinute +16%, Trivago -19%. China travel stocks (new): China Southern +7%, cTrip -8%. Others: TUI (UK quote) +18%, Airbus -7%.

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 225, Asia Pacific 79, Europe 199, US 398. Index previous month: World 219, Asia Pacific 77, Europe 191, US 390.

TBA China Travel Stocks Index (new; quotes from China, Hong Kong, US): 93; previous month 100.

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 156; previous month 153.

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth Frankfurt +7%; biggest fall New Zealand -1%. Previous month: biggest growth Istanbul +7%; biggest fall New York-Travel Weekly -3%.

Comments:

-Other airlines doing well were SAS +20%, Jet Blue in the US +17%. And ICAG (+15% Spain quote, +12% UK) – but this was partly recovery from a pilot strike at ICAG’s largest airline, British.

-Thai, for the second month running, has fallen more than any other airline. More even than our perennial worst performer – India’s non-operating Jet, -12%.

-Peninsula, after a few months when it has fallen more than any other hotel group, switch last month – becoming the fastest, although this is of course partly a dead-cat-bounce.

-In Travel Tech, Trivago continues its downward spiral.

-In Others, Airbus leader, and troubled Boeing worst. We presume there is some link in these results – because Boeing is doing badly in sales, which benefits Airbus.

-Also in Others, Eurotunnel matched Airbus’s +11%, but was just a fraction below.

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

Done deals

31 October 2019

Global Data, a data and analytics company, reports on deals by companies in the travel business in September. Findings include:

-Deals done worth US$8.96bn worldwide, +58.9% over August, +15.0% over Oct 18-Sep 19.

-Deals 12-month average 108 -0.9%.

-North America deals US$7.13bn; change not given.

-Top-5 share 84.2%, value US$7.54bn.

-Top-5 deals: Korea’s Mirae Asset Global Investments’ US$5.8bn private equity with China’s Anbang Insurance; US$596mn asset transaction with Principal Real Estate by France’s AXA; Imperial’s US$516.3m asset transaction with US’s Caesars Entertainment; US$331.1m private equity with Ireland’s Six Nations Rugby by US’s CVC Capital Partners SICAV-FIS, China’s Boyu Capital Consultancy, Hong Kong’s CCB International, China’s Huazhu Hotels; China’s Yunfeng Capital US$300mn venture financing of China’s Chengjia Apartment (despite the name, more than one structure, and a Huazhu subsidiary).

 

Germany’s domestic, outbound

30 October 2019

Research & Markets* (RM), a company, reports on Germany’s domestic and outbound markets. Among its findings:

-US$340bn domestic spend in 2018; growth not given, and quoted in US$ (a risk with current sizeable fluctuations). Our database (based on Eurostat data) shows 159mn +5.4% travellers, which would mean US$2134 per trip. As this is too high, we conclude that RM is working on a different traveller-number.

-Outbound daily spend US$154.74 +1.4%.

-Those aged 35-49 took 70.6mn trips. We believe this is domestic and outbound, but given unclear data, this is not certain.

-Forecast annual average growth rate 2019-22 +3%. Not clear if this is total or those aged 35-49.

*Notes: We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

Europe’s air capacity

29 October 2019

Forward Keys* reports airline seat capacity on flights from outside Europe in Q3 (which it terms ‘crucial’*) grew +6.2%.

Other data:

-Intra-Europe airline seat capacity Q3 +3.9%.

-For Q3, FK shows Europe’s top cities for longhaul capacity growth, but we believe size is needed to know the relevance.

*Notes:

-FK analyses 17mn flight booking transactions daily from major global reservation systems.

-Q3 is ‘crucial’ because it includes the summer season (Jul-Sep), which accounts for 34% of all-year arrivals.

– A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

TBA Tracking: October travel stocks’ ups and downs. Trouble – Thai, Trivago.

FOXTROTS*

 

TBA Tracking: October travel stocks’ ups and downs. Trouble – Thai, Trivago.

Travel stock prices (Asia Pacific, Europe, US) in October.

 

Airlines: biggest growth, Norwegian +23%; biggest fall, Thai -17%.

Hotels: Peninsula +18%, InterContinental -7%.

Tech: cTrip +11%, Trivago -11%.

China travel stocks (new): Air China +4%, Hainan Airlines -5%.

Others: Airbus +11%, Boeing -9%.

 

Previous month:

Airlines: biggest growth, Easyjet +21%; biggest fall, Thai -11%.

Hotels: Mandarin-Oriental +10%, Peninsula -10%.

Tech: LastMinute +16%, Trivago -19%.

China travel stocks (new): China Southern +7%, cTrip -8%.

Others: TUI (UK quote) +18%, Airbus -7%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 225, Asia Pacific 79, Europe 199, US 398. Index previous month: World 219, Asia Pacific 77, Europe 191, US 390.

 

TBA China Travel Stocks Index (new; quotes from China, Hong Kong, US): 93; previous month 100.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 156; previous month 153.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth Frankfurt +7%; biggest fall New Zealand -1%. Previous month: biggest growth Istanbul +7%; biggest fall New York-Travel Weekly -3%.

 

Comments:

-Other airlines doing well were SAS +20%, Jet Blue in the US +17%. And ICAG (+15% Spain quote, +12% UK) – but this was partly recovery from a pilot strike at ICAG’s largest airline, British.

-Thai, for the second month running, has fallen more than any other airline. More even than our perennial worst performer – India’s non-operating Jet, -12%.

-Peninsula, after a few months when it has fallen more than any other hotel group, switch last month – becoming the fastest, although this is of course partly a dead-cat-bounce.

-In Travel Tech, Trivago continues its downward spiral.

-In Others, Airbus leader, and troubled Boeing worst. We presume there is some link in these results – because Boeing is doing badly in sales, which benefits Airbus.

-Also in Others, Eurotunnel matched Airbus’s +11%, but was just a fraction below.

 

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.