FOXTROTS*
Travel-Industry-Data News, April 29 – May 3.
Hotel business updates
3 May 2024
[] Our summary of HNN* report on Marriott:
-Q1 occupancy 66%, average room rate +3%. Note 1. Changes/figures as shown.
-Opened 46,000 rooms Q1 (of which 37,000 from its partnership with MGM Resorts); now 8900/1.6mn hotels/rooms. Note 2. Figures as shown.
-Pipeline 3419/547,000.
-At HNN press time (report dated 1st), it reported the company’s stock was US$235 +6% YTD, and its stockmarket +6% for the same period. Note 3. Our database shows the company’s end-April stock price was US$236 +5% YTD, +56% compared with pre-covid end-2019, and its stockmarket +4% +75%.
[] Our summary of STR* report on US hotels:
Weekly 7-day periods through:
-27 April occupancy (against comparable week in 2023) 65.7% (-1.2%), average room rate US$154.44 (-1.3%)
-20 April 66.8% (-0.3%) US$158.60 (+1.5%)
-13 April 65.8% (+2.8%) US$160.20 (+2.9%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-March 62.3% (-5.6%) US$157.14 (-0.7%)
-February 62.0% (-3.3%) US$156.62 (+0.3%)
-January 56.2% (-0.3%) US$149.76 (+5.1%)
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
Travel business updates
2 May 2024
[] Lufthansa* Group Q1 (if additional to our 15 April report):
-Seat sales 24mn +12%.
-Group revenue US$8.0bn +5% (which we have converted at US$1 to €0.92).
-Strikes affect US$380mn.
-Forecast 2024 operating profit US$2.39bn -18.5%.
-Seat capacity +12%, 84% of pre-covid 2019.
-Seat load factor 79.7% +-0%.
-LHG passenger airlines revenue US$6.09bn +7%.
-Summer bookings +16%. Note 1. Measure not known – revenue, seat sales.
-Most summer bookings – presumably in order of size: shorthaul Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece; longhaul US, Japan, ‘Southern’ Africa. Note 2. 1, Only three given for longhaul. 2, ‘Southern’ Africa believed to be a mistake for ‘South’, as other destinations would be Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, although Namibia was once a German colony.
-Forecast capacity. Q2 92% of 2019, Q3 95%, 2014 92%. Note 3. 1, Measure not known – ASK, ATK, seats. 2, Q4 capacity not given.
*Notes: The Lufthansa Group (LHG; main passenger airlines Austrian, Brussels, Eurowings, Lufthansa, Swiss).
[] Our summary of 2023 US inbound and outbound travel* from its NTTO*:
-Arrivals 66.5mn +31%, 84% of pre-covid 2019.
-New York most-visited state, #2 in 2022; next Florida, California. Note 1. Other changes, numbers, not given.
-New York most-visited city; NEXT Miami, Los Angeles. Note 2. No other details given.
-US nationals departures 98.5mn +22%, 99% of 2019.
-Visitors spent US$213.1bn +29%.
-US nationals spend on international travel, US$215.4bn +33%, +17% compared with 2019.
-Forecasts 85.2mn arrivals in 2025, above 2019 level.
*Notes:
-NTTO=National Travel and Tourism Office. The US DMO.
-When rounded, by NTTO.
[] Our summary of WAS* reports that firearms were intercepted at US airport security checks 1500 times in Q1; 93% were loaded. Our records show this is a fall from 1508 in 2023; the same share were loaded.
*Notes: WAS is Washington Aviation Summary, a monthly publication produced by US-based legal company, Kirstein & Young.
[] Our summary of an IATA* report March air traffic:
-Worldwide RPKs +13.8%; comparison with pre-covid 2019 no longer given. ASKs +12.3%, load factor 82.0% +1.0pt.
-RPKs by region – Asia Pacific +24.2%, Europe +10.6%, North America +6.3%.
-International RPKs +18.9% – Asia Pacific +38.5%, Europe +11.6%, North America +14.5%.
-Domestic RPKs +6.6% – Australia +1.8%, Brazil +1.6%, China +17.6%, India +3.8%, Japan +3.3%, Russia NA, US +2.6%.
*Notes:
-IATA=International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.
-Starting 2022, IATA misleadingly changed its practice of comparing current data with the same period in pre-covid 2019, and now compares only with 2023, which has less value for understanding progress. IATA no longer provides general comparisons with 2019, and we do not have the data to enable us to calculate the missing measures.
TBA Tracking: April travel stocks’ ups and downs.
1 May 2024
Commentary (category/sector/index numbers below):
-The ‘Big Picture’ in a word or two – oh no.
-Our YTD calculation for all stocks and categories is now our ‘default’ commentary in this section, unless noted otherwise. At end of last month +1%.
-Asia Pacific did better than other regions month on month, but YTD its +0.01% is behind Europe’s +2%, but ahead of the US, -3%.
-The US had a bad month, but at -6% is much closer to recovery to pre-covid 2019 than AsPac -23%, Europe -26%.
-China fell again, -1% over March and now -20% over 2019.
-Boeing is not as bad as expected, -13% over March, but all US was -11%.
-What’s happening at Air France-KLM? Down -29% and an eye-watering -81% compared with 2019; its stockmarket was +6% +34%.
-We’ve added Sixt to our car-rental coverage, to balance US-based Avis and Hertz. But the other two big players – Enterprise (that, plus Alamo, National), Europcar – are not quoted. All three down, see below.
-Unusually, many stockmarkets fell – 13 of our 24.
-In our ‘Giants’ category (12 of the world’s biggest travel companies), a bad month, with nine down over March.
-Our ‘FSA’ category was also down, with half of them falling.
-In our ‘NFA’ category, worse than FSAs, as now becoming normal.
-Our ‘Travel-Tech’ category managed a +0.1% growth over March.
-Tears in our ‘Fun’ category – just two growing, out of nine.
Selected category-specifics (compared with previous month):
-Giant airlines, airline groups (FSAs, full-service-airlines). China Southern +1% (Shanghai), Delta +5%, ICAG -1% (London), Lufthansa -8%.
-NFAs (no-frills-airlines). Air Asia +13%, Ryanair -4%, Southwest -11%, Spring China +3%.
-Giant hotel groups. Accor -5%, AirBnB -4%, InterContinental -5%, Jinjiang +1%, Marriott -6%.
-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin +8%, Shangri-La +12%.
-Big travel groups. China United -15%, Flight Centre -3%, GBTG +1%, TUI -13% (Frankfurt).
-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM -16%, Sands -14%.
-Car renters. Avis -22%, Sixt -6%. Hertz, see below.
-Planemakers. Airbus -9%, Boeing -13%, Embraer +0.1%.
-Big airports, airport groups. ADP -6%, Corporacion America APs +1%, Fraport -4%, Guangzhou +3%.
-Cruisers. Carnival -9%, RCC +0.4%.
-Travel-tech heavies. AirBnB -4%, Amadeus +1%, Booking -5%, Expedia -2%, Trip +12% (Hong Kong).
-Fun, for fun (ie leisure). Banyan Tree +3%, Norwegian Cruises -10%, Fosun +5%, Hawaiian -5%, Ryanair -4%, Sun Int’l +2%, TUI London -13%, Walt Disney -9%, Wynn -10%.
-No-hopers. Hertz -42%, Jet India -2%, Norwegian Air -11%, SAS -17%.
-Big stockmarkets. Frankfurt -3%, Hong Kong +7%, London +2%, Tokyo -4%, US (average of our four) -5%.
Numbers – Sectors (compared with previous month):
-Big Picture. (Numbers repeated in different sections below.) All – World -2%, Asia Pacific +1%, Europe -5%, US -8%, RoW +2%. World – Airlines -4%, Hotels -3%, Others -3%.
-World (travel-related stocks), last month: -2%.Previous month: +4%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -4%.
-World, last month: Airlines -4%, Hotels -3%, Others -3%.Previous month: Airlines +4%, Hotels +0.5%, Others +1%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -39%, Hotels +2%, Others -20%.
-Regions, all sectors, last month: Asia Pacific +1%, Europe -5%, US -8%, RoW +2%. Previous month: Asia Pacific -0.2%, Europe +5%, US +0.1%, RoW +10%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -23%, Europe -26%, US -6%, RoW +38%.
-Asia Pacific, including China, last month: Airlines +2%, Hotels +3%, Others -3%. Previous month: Airlines -3%, Hotels +1%, Others +0.3%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -15%, Hotels -13%, Others -33%.
-Asia Pacific, excluding China, last month: Airlines -1%, Hotels +4%, Others +3%. Previous month: Airlines +2%, Hotels +7%, Others -6%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -23%, Hotels -15%, Others -37%.
-China, last month: -1%. Previous month: -2%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -20%.
–China travel stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US), last month: +2%. Previous month: -3%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -27%.
-Europe, last month: Airlines -4%, Hotels -4%, Others -6%. Previous month: Airlines +6%, Hotels +3%, Others +6%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -54%, Hotels -2%, Others -23%.
-US, last month: Airlines -8%, Hotels -8%, Others -6%. Previous month: Airlines +5%, Hotels +3%, Others +3%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -40%, Hotels +23%, Others -1%.
-FSAs, last month: -2%. Previous month: +4%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -41%.
-NFAs, last month: -4%. Previous month: -7%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -48%.
-Travel-tech, last month: +0.2%.Previous month: +2%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -5%.
-‘Giants’, last month: -5%. Previous month: +4%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -14%.
-Stockmarkets, last month: -0.4%. Previous month: +3%. Last month, compared with end-2019: +58%.
Numbers – Indices (compared with previous month):
-TBA Travel Stocks Index, last month: World 237, Asia Pacific 60, Europe 365, US 286. Previous month: World 242, Asia Pacific 59, Europe 357, US 309. End-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US), last month 78. Previous month 76. End-2019 105.
-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index, last month 136. Previous month 138. End-2019 170.
Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Our February issues include annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.
Our outlook
30 April 2024
The following extracted from our input for an external report:
1 What is your assessment of performance in your business January-April compared to what you reasonably would expect for that period?
Equal. (Note that the question and therefore response is flawed because it depends if compared with 2022, which was not normal/reasonable, or with pre-covid 2019. Our answer is related to 2019.)
2 What have been the main determinants for the evolution of [the travel business] January-April?
Depends on what is meant by ‘reasonable’, mainly related to covid. But there is no particularly ‘worse’ news at present, although not much positive in terms of outlook.
3 What are prospects for performance in your business May-August compared to what you reasonably would expect for that period?
Equal.
4 What will be the main determinants for the evolution of [the travel business] May-August?
Same as #2.
5 What is your evaluation for performance of [the travel business] in your business in 2024 compared with 2023?
Equal.
6 What level of visitor arrivals do you forecast in your destination in 2024 compared with pre-covid 2019?
We cannot answer because we are an international operation; we do not have a ‘destination’.
7 When do you expect [the travel business] to return to 2019 levels in your country?
We cannot answer because we are an international operation; we do not have a ‘country’.
8 What are the three main challenges that [the travel business] will face in 2024?
(Selection from seven choices (+ Other) provided.)
-Economic environment (such as oil prices, inflation, interest rates).
-Low consumer confidence.
-Other. Not just ‘other political risks’ as marked, but ‘political risks’, which include the two listed (Russia’s war on Ukraine, Israel/Hamas fighting), and others, which include US presidential elections this year.
9 What could be the potential impact in consumer behaviour in 2024 due to the current world economic environment?
(Selection from seven choices (+ Other) provided.)
-Travel closer to home.
-Reduced spending.
-Wait and see attitude.
10 What segment is showing the fastest recovery or expansion since covid in your destination?
We cannot answer because we are an international operation; we do not have a ‘destination’.
11 Is domestic travel driving the recovery in your destination?
We cannot answer because we are an international operation; we do not have a ‘destination’.
12 How is domestic travel performing compared to before covid in your destination?
We cannot answer because we are an international operation; we do not have a ‘destination’.
13 What main factors do you think will drive international travel in 2024 in your business?
The international situation, with wars in Europe, Middle East, Sudan, fighting elsewhere in Africa, and tensions in other places. Plus the US presidential elections later this year. All these affect the economies as well. Meaning a ‘sombre’ atmosphere for the travel business.
Travel business updates
29 April 2024
[] Results of Ifema in 2023, which runs the Fitur travel trade show in Madrid:
-Revenue US$193mn (which we have converted at US$1 to €0.92). Note 1. Change not given.
-Operating profit US$30mn +34.1%.
-585 events, of which 96 trade fairs/congresses, 445 conventions/events.
-Exhibitors +59%; 33,978 +59% exhibiting companies; visitors 3.8mn +2.7%. Note 2. We presume that when growth not shown, there was a fall.
-2024 forecast US$224mn +16% turnover, US$30.9mn +3% operating profit, 730 +25% events, 38,125 +12% exhibitors, 4.1mn +8% visitors. Note 3. 1, Growths are our calculations. 2, Not known if ‘revenue’ above is same as ‘turnover’ here, and ‘exhibiting companies’ same as ‘exhibitors.
[] Our summary of STR* reports on Dubai hotels:
-During Ramadan (11 March-9 April), highest occupancy 78.9% Friday 29 March, highest average room rate US$246 (which we have converted at US$1 to Dh3.67) Saturday 30 March.
-During Eid al-Fitr (starting Wednesday 10 April), highest occupancy 92.9% Friday 12 April, highest ARR US$243 Thursday, 11 April.
*Notes:
-STR=US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). Generally, we report on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
[] Our summary of TDN* report on activity travel*, with data from Mabrian Travel Intelligence (together, TM):
-Top-5 activities*, 2023. Hiking/camping 22.6% share, +9.9% (in number, not share) over pre-covid 2019. Cycling 19.9% +6%. Canoe/kayak 15.7% +2.7%. Spa 12.7% +7.6%. Surf/windsurf/kitesurf 3.8% +0.3%. Note 1. 1, TM show ‘cooking’ as #5; we have excluded this, as cooking is not ‘activity’ in the usual usage. 2, Numbers not given.
-Mabrian divides its ‘experiential’ into four categories. After excluding food/cuisine, 2023 shares were Active Lifestyle 18.3%, Nature 13.8%, Wellness 3.2%. In 2019 15.2% 9.2% 3.0%.
*Notes:
-TDN is Greece-based publication Travel Daily News.
-Mabrian describes its coverage as ‘experiential’, but we have extracted just ‘activity/wellness’ data, because all leisure travel could be described as ‘experiential’.
-Based on comments on social media, not actual travel.
-Any rounding, by TM.
The Fox. Remember, I’ll be famous after I’m dead.
*Fox – sly. Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning. Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.
Foxtrots 