Travel Industry Data Updates, June 24-28.

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Travel Industry Data Updates, June 24-28.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

TBA Tracking: Market Monitor, July

28 June 2019

An extract from the Market Monitor in current issues WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst – which also includes monthly growth data for principal travel companies in the three regions. Percentage change unless noted otherwise. E=estimate, P=provisional, TBA=Travel Business Analyst.

[] TBA Travel Industry Index, World: 2019: Apr +5%E; Mar +2.8%P; Feb +4.7%.

[] TBA Travel Industry Index, Asia Pacific: 2019: Apr +4%E; Mar +2.1%P.

[] TBA Travel Industry Index, Europe: 2019: Apr +4%E; Mar +3.3%P; Feb +5.2%.

[] TBA Travel Industry Index, US: 2019: Apr +5%E; Mar +2.1%P; Feb +2.2%.

[] World airline stocks index, on 100: 2019: May 192; Apr 217; Mar 214.

[] World air traffic, RPKs: 2019: Apr +4.3%; Mar +3.1%; Feb +5.3%. IATA.

[] World hotel stocks index, on 100: 2019: May 163; Apr 172; Mar 164. TBA.

[] World travel stocks index, on 100: 2019: May 210; Apr 228; Mar 222. TBA.

[] World travel-tech stocks index, on 100: 2019: May 130; Apr 132. Net Value.

[] AsPac airport passengers, ttl: 2019: Mar +2.0%; Feb +2.7%; Jan +5.6%. ACI.

[] AsPac travel stocks index, on 100: 2019: May 89; Apr 97; Mar 100. TBA.

[] Europe airport passengers, ttl: 2019: Mar +3.8%; Feb +5.0. ACI.

[] Europe travel stocks index, on 100: 2019: May 188; Apr 197; Mar 194. TBA.

[] US citizen departures, overseas: 2019: Mar +7.5%; Feb +9.9%.

[] US hotel occupancy, pts: 2019: Apr +0.1; Mar -0.1. Smith.

[] US travel agency sales: 2019: Apr +5.9%; Mar +3.0%. ARC.

[] US travel stocks index, on 100: 2019: May 351; Apr 390; Mar 371. TBA.

[] US visitor arrivals (2017 restated Sep 18): 2019: Mar -5.9%; Feb -3.1%.

 

Travel business updates

27 June 2019

[] PCW (Phocuswright) research on travellers from China (most are Net Value estimates on PCW data) found 51% had no idea where to go, 40% had a few places in mind, 9% already knew where to go.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports:

-On Middle East hotels in May: occupancy -8.6% to 52.0%, average room rate +8.9% to US$164.87.

-On US hotels 16-22 June: occupancy -0.6% to 75.5%, average room rate +0.8% to US$134.83.

 

TBA Tracking: seat sales (FSAs, NFAs), China outbound

26 June 2019

Monthly seat sales, full-service and no-frills airlines

Our calculation of growth in seat sales of full-service and no-frills airlines in Europe in March, from the current editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows +6.2% for FSAs, +7.2% for NFAs, total +6.6%. Previous month +6.5% +9.4% +7.8%.

China outbound – monthly

We estimate that outbound travel from China, including travel to Hong Kong and Macau, grew +19% in the latest month. The earlier month was +8%, then 24%, +22%, +21%. Details in the current editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

Hotel pipeline in China

25 June 2019

Hotel Management (HM) reports that China’s hotel pipeline in March was 2761 +12% hotels with 580,635 +6% rooms. It now reports 2845 +15% and 590,809 +8%.

Other related measures, with Lodging Economics (LE):

-Under construction 2083 +21% and 414,967 + 12%.

HM does not give change/growth for the following data:

-Due to start construction in the next 12 months 387/83,074 hotels/rooms.

-In the early-planning stage 375/92,768.

-In Q1, 185/27,455 opened.

-LE forecasts 795/127,420 will have opened in 2019.

-In 2020 732/124,160 are forecast to open.

-Guangzhou has most – 128/28,367 – then Shanghai 114/22,747, Chengdu 110/23,295, Suzhou 83/15,092, Hangzhou 79/17,415.

-Hilton has most – 421/86,750 – then InterContinental 340/76,861, Marriott 291/79,860, Jinjiang 273/31,118, Accor 201/35,318.

-Brands. Hampton/Hilton 242/38,608, Holiday Inn Express/InterContinental 162/29,599, Days Inn/Jinjiang 118/9296 rooms, Ibis/Accor 85/9214, Vienna/Jinjiang 74/10,360, Marriott/Marriott 67/20,373, DoubleTree/Hilton 65/18,733, Holiday Inn/InterContinental 57/14,880, Mercure/Accor 57/9948, Courtyard/Marriott 36/9,321.

 

TBA Tracking: Seat sales by World’s top-3 no-frills-airlines

24 June 2019

Our monthly calculation of seats sold by the leading NFAs (no-frills-airlines) in the world’s three main regions has now been compromised. US-based Southwest has joined Air Asia in reducing corporate transparency, and now reports only Qs.

Only Ryanair continues to publish monthly data.

Q1 for the three then: Air Asia +10%, Ryanair* +7%, Southwest -0.1%. Data from WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

*Ryanair includes traffic for Lauda Air in the current-year totals, but not for the previous year. We have made the adjustment, and thus the growth we show for (the group) Ryanair is lower than the group’s own data.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

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Travel Industry Data Updates, June 17-21.

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Travel Industry Data Updates, June 17-21.

 

Traffic into Europe

21 June 2019

EF* forecasts there will be 262mn +3.8% air seats to Europe on sale in Q3. Other forecasts:

-Istanbul has a 5.5% market share, +10.0% capacity growth, +11.2% bookings. EF credits the new airport (although not fully open) and lowering concerns about security. We are surprised controversial re-run elections in the city next week, did not reduce this optimism.

-Other fastest-growing. Budapest share 2.0%, capacity +10.0%, bookings +5.9%. Dubrovnik 0.6% +8.4% +16.2%. Valencia 0.8% +8.5% +15.6%.

-Others; fastest capacity-growth. Lisbon +7.8% (market share 2.7%), Munich +6.0% (4.3%), Seville +16.7% (0.4%), Vienna +12.6% (3.9%).

-Longhaul bookings; fastest growth. Barcelona +13.8% (8.1% share), Dubrovnik +16.2% (0.9%), Madrid +7.0% (7.4%), Valencia +15.6% (0.2%).

*Notes:

-ECM=European Cities Marketing, FK=Forward Keys, EF=ECM-FK report on arrival and booking trends.

-From the Air Travellers’ Traffic Barometer, produced by EF.

-FK analyses 17mn flight booking transactions daily from major global reservation systems.

 

Travel business updates

20 June 2019

[] ARC (the Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines), reports for May: air tickets sold US$9.22bn +4.8%; average US roundtrip ticket US$511 +$13; passenger trips 27.4mn +3.5% (domestic – +2.7%, international +4.7%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$7.4mn -16%; EMD transactions +3.4%.

[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in May at 6.66mn +3.3%, YTD 33.7mn +3.4%.

[] HNN reports that InterContinental Hotels targets to grow the portfolio of Six Senses, which it bought in 2018. It now has 18 resorts plus 17 in the pipeline. It targets 60 in 10 years, which would be +12.8% annual average growth rate.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels 9-15 June: occupancy -0.6% to 73.7%, average room rate +1.9% to US$134.59.

[] In June, Student Universe sales US-Europe grew* +7% and Europe-US +15%. It says US-E air fares are 7.7% lower*; E-US not given. Fares on two routes detailed: US-Greece/Spain -19% lower.

*Notes:

-Possibly an estimate as the month has not finished, or bookings to date; SU does not clarify.

-The Euro has fallen -3.4% over the past year. That would account for some of the fall in US fares – and may indicate higher fares E-US.

 

More meetings counts

19 June 2019

ICCA* has issued more data on its report for 2018. We include some baseline data here, but brief because ICCA’s data is based on single-year counts.

  Our main analysis is based on multi-year results. We are motivated by those working in the MICE segment of the travel business – who tell us that single-year figures can be misleading. As a result, we calculate average-annual totals based on 5-year periods – to balance out distortions caused by unusually-big or -small events in one year.

  Surprisingly, the industry itself still works on annual figures! Even more surprising is that in 2013 ICCA said it was following our lead and tracking results in 5-year averages. Despite that, all its analysis and observations continues to be based on single-year figures!

  Our report on this topic is due to be included in the August issue of our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know report, published by Travel Business Analyst. This contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

Some excerpts from ICCA’s single-year data:

-Barcelona counted most participants, although, as reported earlier, Paris counted most meetings. No3 in participants is Vienna, then Munich, Berlin. This highlights the problem with single-year counts; on a 5-year count, Munich would not only be below Berlin, but about No8 – see WYSK. Munich is No35 in meeting numbers. Two big medical conferences – 32,858 and 27,700 participants – made 2018 an exceptional year.

-The US remains in the top country, Spain overtakes Germany to become No2, then France, Canada.

-Main topics are Medical Science (share 16.9%), Technology (14.2%), Science (13.5%).

-Spend on international meetings was US$12.4bn (we calculate +3.8% from ICCA-rounded €11bn and +4%).

*Notes:

-ICCA’s counts are meetings of associations (and follow precise definitions), and thus are just one segment of the big MICE business. We have not seen estimates, but we would be surprised if ICCA’s segment was more than 20% of the total. Why do these counts attract so much interest? (Possibly, we answer ourselves, because no other worldwide trade body tracks the whole MICE business.)

-Until 2009, ICCA gave us additional information for our analysis, but has refused this since. Full data is reserved for ICCA members; a policy with which we agree, even if it causes us some difficulty. As a result, however, our coverage is now limited to meetings numbers, rather than adding commentary on attendance numbers as well.

-ICCA was initially an abbreviation for the International Congress and Conventions Association. Then it used ICCA as a name, which it described as The International Meetings Association. It has now reverted to almost the same – ICCA, International Congress and Convention Association.

 

Magic mushrooms

18 June 2019

France-based Magic Stay* which, despite its name, specialises in short-term apartment rentals for business travellers, has raised more money – US$3.37mn (at US$1 to €0.89). Earlier fund-raising rounds: US$1.69mn early-2018, US$1.12mn end-2016, another US$1.12mn end-2014, and US$562k when launched early 2014.

The apartment portfolio of the 5-year-old MS is not clear, and not currently published. In some earlier reports it noted 150,000 apartments in 90 countries, but in others – at the same time – it noted 130,000 ‘accommodations’ – which include apartments, studios, villas – in 110 countries. We have no easy way of confirming either.

MS has never published any operating data.

MS says the new funds are to ‘accelerate its international expansion’. Before it was to support ‘strong growth’ in the France market before ‘going global’ from end-2018. International expansion was planned to start in 2015.

*We believe ‘Magic’ is the wrong word for a BT site, although MS has already changed its name from Magic Event.

 

City visitor counts

17 June 2019

Tourism Economics, part of Oxford Economics (unrelated to the university), is one of the groups that report visitor arrivals into cities worldwide. Current findings include:

-Forecasts 630mn +4.7% international visitors this year into its top-300 destination cities.

-Forecasts 803mn in the six years to 2025, which we calculate would be slower +4.1% AAGR (annual average growth rate).

-Top sources put as China, US, UK. We believe TE has overstated the UK count – partly because of the distortions caused by travel documents – being used instead of place of residence. We calculate that by residence, Germany is 15% bigger than the UK.

-TE forecasts Macau will be No3 city in 2025 (top-2 and current ranking not published) +4.4% over 2019 (other figures not published).

-Kuala Lumpur No6 +3.7% up from No10 (date not given when it was that share). Reported as overtaking New York, Singapore, Tokyo. This illustrates TE’s misinterpretation. If Singapore followed the same methodology as Malaysia in terms of counts, its visitor count would be 40% bigger than Malaysia’s; as it is, Singapore’s visitor-count is generally shown as about 20% smaller.

Bangkok +3.5%; no other data or ranking given.

-Other forecast rankings, without data, in 2025, in Asia – New York 7th, Tokyo 8th, Shenzhen 9th, Singapore 10th, Guangzhou 14th,  Shanghai 20th. In Europe, London 1st, Istanbul 13th.

-Travel spend, excluding airfares, forecast to be US$1.5tn +5.7% in 2019. And US$2.2tn in 2025, which we calculate would be a +6.6% AAGR.

-In 2019, top-5 destinations forecast to be Macau US$39bn, Hong Kong US$27bn, New York US$26bn, Bangkok US$22bn, Shenzhen US$22bn.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data Updates, June 10-14.

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Travel Industry Data Updates, June 10-14.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks

14 June 2019

The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in May for US hotel companies was 4645 +4.9% (over previous month). YTD, the stock index was +14.1%.

The ‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ for May, from the current editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows: World 210, Asia Pacific 89, Europe 188, US 351.

The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ for May, from the current editions of our Travel Business Analyst newsletters, was at 192.

The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ for May, from the current editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 163.

The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in, from the current edition of our monthly Net Value report, was at 130.

The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong and New York, as well as Shanghai), in May from the current editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 94.

Notes: The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at February 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

 

Travel business updates

13 June 2019

[] ACI reports March airport passenger throughput +2.0% in Asia Pacific and -0.3% in the Middle East. Q1 Asia Pacific +3.4%, Middle East +1.1%. Others in March:

-In China, +1.1%.

-In India -2.7%.

-In the Middle East, Dubai, the airport in the region, was -4.2% as.

[] A new Phocuswright report reports that gross bookings for the 13 Asia Pacific markets its covers were US$418.1bn +7% in 2018. That puts the region well above Europe and the US; no data.

Of that US$418.1bn it reports the online share is 44% – US$182.2bn. We estimate – from PCW data – growth at about +21%.

We estimate – from PCW data – that the 2022 total market will be US$480bn +3.5% AAGR (annual average growth rate), and online US$260bn +9.3% AAGR.

 

Outbound from Russia

12 June 2019

Global Data*, a data and analytics company, forecasts outbound travel from Russia will grow from 45.3mn in 2018 to 50.2mn in 2023.

It puts that at +10.4%, although our calculator calculates +10.8%, and that the AAGR (annual average growth rate) would be +2.08%, which looks slow.

However, GD says that AAGR (it calculates +2.05%) would be better than the -0.28% achieved over 2014-18.

(It reports -31% 2016 over 2014, then +43% 2018/16, +4% 2020/18, +6% over a 3-year 2023/20.)

Two other findings – that raise questions:

-62% of millennials are likely to travel abroad this year. This looks too high. Millennials are not precisely defined, but Pew counts those born between 1981 and 1996. We estimate that might be 40% of Russia’s population, thus 58mn – more than the total outbound-travel forecast for 2023.

-Those aged 55-64 have no holiday plans. Obviously some do.

*Notes:

-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data.

-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

Hotel pipeline, Europe

11 June 2019

Hotel Management and Lodging Econometrics report:

-Europe’s hotel construction pipeline is 1670 +22% hotels with 254,600 +19% rooms. Rival STR shows 1454/187,198; growth NA because new methodology.

-That comprises 844/133,620 under construction, 480/72,588 due to start construction in the next 12 months, 346/48,392 at early planning. Growths not given for this and all of following.

-Due to open this year 390/53,241, in 2020 426/61,490.

-Overall pipeline, countries – Germany 319/57,152, UK 261/37,910, France 188/22,537, Portugal 121/12,190 Poland 91/13,748.

-Overall pipeline, cities – London 78/13,285, Paris 60/9255, Dusseldorf 53/10,347, Lisbon 39/3457, Hamburg 31/6101 rooms.

-Overall pipeline, hotel groups – Accor 256/35,073, Marriott 208/33,395, Hilton 172/26,466, InterContinental 147/24,483. These four companies take a 47% share.

-Overall pipeline, hotel brands – Ibis (Accor group) 134/16,901, Moxy/Marriott 64/11,422, Holiday Inn Express/InterContinental 72/10,900, Hampton/Hilton 70 10,790, Holiday Inn/InterContinental 33/7541, Garden/Hilton 43 6416, Courtyard/Marriott 33/5758, Novotel 25/4246, DoubleTree/Hilton 23/2985, Mercure/Accor 28/2918, Residence/Marriott 17/1607, Indigo/InterContinental 13/1554.

 

Travel business updates

10 June 2019

[] ACI reports Q1 Europe airport passenger throughput +4.4%. Others:

-March. EU +4.1%, non-EU +2.9%.

-Q1. Airports/markets (EU), and order, selected by ACI. Austria +21.6%, Estonia +13.3%, Sweden -4.1%, Denmark +0.9%, Belgium +1.9%, Netherlands +1.8%. Berlin Tegel +32.4%, Vienna +24.6%, Tallinn +13.3%, Dusseldorf +12.5%, Milan Malpensa +10.6%, Palma +10.2%, Athens +9.5%, Luxembourg +9.3%.

-Q1. Airports/markets (non-EU), and order, selected by ACI. Turkey -3.7%, Iceland -8.8%. Moscow Sheremetevo +17.6%, Moscow Vnukovo +13.2%, St Petersburg +14.7%, Minsk +15.7%, Tbilisi +11.2%, Kiev +15.2% Antalya +13.2%, Sochi +12.9%.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels 2-8 June: occupancy -1.3% to 72.0%, average room rate +0.5% to US$132.40.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data Updates, June 3-7.

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Travel Industry Data Updates, June 3-7.

From www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

WTO on visitor spend

7 June 2019

WTO (World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO) reports travel spend was US$1.7tn +4% in 2018. It defines this as ‘exports from international tourism’.

WTTC, the rival lobby group for the travel business, counts all the travel business. It reported US$8.8tn +3.9%.

Other WTO findings:

-The total grew faster than the +3% of merchandise exports.

-Accounted for 29% of global service exports and 7% of overall exports of goods and services.

-Visitor spend was US$1.45tn +4%. WTO calls this ‘consistent’ with the +6% growth in visitor arrivals, but for us this means that per-visitor-spend fell substantially.

-International passenger transport US$256bn; WTO does not give the growth rate, which usually means it fell.

-Regional visitor spend. Asia Pacific +7% growth, Europe +5%, Middle East +3%, Americas flat.

-Sub-regional visitor spend. Central/Eastern Europe +9%, Northeast Asia +9%. No others given.

-Growth size is also given for what WTO calls leading source markets, but this information less value without noting size. WTO puts France +11%, Russia +11%, Australia +10%.

-China’s spend put as largest, at US$277bn +5%, the US US$144bn +7%.

-For others, just growth given, and no reason for the order – we do not think it is size. UK +3%, Italy +4%, Germany and Korea ‘rather flat’ (we do not know what this means), Spain +12%.

 

Macau outlook

6 June 2019

Research & Markets* (RM), a company, forecasts for Macau:

-In 2025 ‘revenue’ from international visitors will be US$15bn. We believe this means the same as visitor spend, and that ‘international’ excludes visitors from neighbouring China and Hong Kong.

-There will be 2mn MICE visitors in 2025.

-Growth not given for these two measures.

-RM notes that China, Hong Kong, Taiwan ‘remained’ Macau’s top-3 visitor sources. Period not given, but we presume 2018. Our database shows these three have a 91% market share (of which China was 71%). Unlike some of the other figures here, these include China and Hong Kong, meaning that even some data within this section may not be comparable with some other.

*Notes: We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – most apparently due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

US hotel business updates

5 June 2019

STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels:

[] 27 May through 2 June occupancy +0.6% to 64.5%, average room rate +1.0% to US$124.16.

[] STR with Tourism Economics – here, ST – have lowered their forecast for this year. The data:

-2019 occupancy +0.1%, average room rate +1.9%.

-What ST call overall performance – measured as revpar (revenue per available room) – for 2019 has been lowered from the +2.3% forecast this February to +2.0%.

-2020 occupancy -0.2%, average room rate +2.2%.

 

TBA Tracking: May travel stocks’ ups and downs – another bad month

3 June 2019

Travel stock prices (Asia Pacific, Europe, US) in May.

Airlines: biggest growth, Jet (India) +8%; biggest fall, China Southern -26%.

Hotels: Millennium & Copthorne +12%, Marriott -17%.

Tech: LastMinute +23%, cTrip -18%.

China travel stocks (new): HNA (airline, not group; China quote) -8% (sic), China Southern (HK quote) -26%.

Others: Amex -2% (sic), Thomas Cook -20%.

 

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Jet Blue +14%; biggest fall, Norwegian -13%. Hotels: Dusit +21%, Jinjiang -8%. Tech: eDreams +15%, Amadeus -5%. China travel stocks (new): HNA (airline, not group; China quote) +0.5%, Jinjiang (HK quote) -8%. Others: Disney +19%, Thomas Cook -13%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 210, Asia Pacific 89, Europe 188, US 351. Index previous month: World 228, Asia Pacific 97, Europe 197, US 390.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 130; previous month 132.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, India +2%; biggest fall Hong Kong -9%. Previous month: biggest growth New York-Travel Weekly +12%; biggest fall Shanghai -0.4%.

 

Comments:

-Yet another bad month. More travel stock prices fell than grew. In two sectors (China stocks and Others) the fastest growth stocks were actually those that fell least.

-There are not many companies that are above their end-2017 price (not end-2018, because there was a big fall towards the end of 2018) – Asia Pacific 1 (out of 27 we track), Europe 6/23, US 9/23.

-As usual, some oddities. The fastest-growing airline stock was Jet Airways, despite the fact that it has actually stopped flying! However, its shares are still changing hands, presumably with investors calculating the gains and losses from liquidation.

-Travel-tech stocks once again had a mixed month. Even Booking (nee Priceline) was down badly, -9%. Fortunes may be turning for LastMinute, up +23%. But that cannot be said for Trivago, still falling, and almost half its end-2017 price.

-Star performer was InterContinental Hotels – albeit because others were so dull. Its +3% is admittedly slow, but it is +8% above its end-2017 price.

-China (which now also includes Hong Kong in terms of stock sentiments), suffered most – presumably because of the trade war that the US has started with China. The Hong Kong market fell most, but Shanghai also fell heavily, -6%.

-Stockmarkets had a particularly-bad month. Only 4 grew, of the 25 we track; all of those were AsPac markets.

 

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

TBA Tracking: May travel stocks’ ups and downs – another bad month

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TBA Tracking: May travel stocks’ ups and downs – another bad month

Travel stock prices (Asia Pacific, Europe, US) in May.

 

Airlines: biggest growth, Jet (India) +8%; biggest fall, China Southern -26%.

Hotels: Millennium & Copthorne +12%, Marriott -17%.

Tech: LastMinute +23%, cTrip -18%.

China travel stocks (new): HNA (airline, not group; China quote) -8% (sic), China Southern (HK quote) -26%.

Others: Amex -2% (sic), Thomas Cook -20%.

 

Previous month:

Airlines: biggest growth, Jet Blue +14%; biggest fall, Norwegian -13%.

Hotels: Dusit +21%, Jinjiang -8%.

Tech: eDreams +15%, Amadeus -5%.

China travel stocks (new): HNA (airline, not group; China quote) +0.5%, Jinjiang (HK quote) -8%.

Others: Disney +19%, Thomas Cook -13%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 210, Asia Pacific 89, Europe 188, US 351. Index previous month: World 228, Asia Pacific 97, Europe 197, US 390.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 130; previous month 132.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, India +2%; biggest fall Hong Kong -9%. Previous month: biggest growth New York-Travel Weekly +12%; biggest fall Shanghai -0.4%.

 

Comments:

-Yet another bad month. More travel stock prices fell than grew. In two sectors (China stocks and Others) the fastest growth stocks were actually those that fell least.

 

-There are not many companies that are above their end-2017 price (not end-2018, because there was a big fall towards the end of 2018) – Asia Pacific 1 (out of 27 we track), Europe 6/23, US 9/23.

 

-As usual, some oddities. The fastest-growing airline stock was Jet Airways, which has actually stopped flying. However, its shares are still changing hands, presumably with investors calculating the gains and losses from liquidation.

 

-Travel-tech stocks once again had a mixed month. Even Booking (nee Priceline) was down badly, -9%. Fortunes may be turning for LastMinute, up +23%. But that cannot be said for Trivago, still falling, and almost half its end-2017 price.

 

-Star performer was InterContinental Hotels – albeit because others were so dull. Its +3% is admittedly slow, but it is +8% above its end-2017 price.

 

-China (which now also includes Hong Kong in terms of stock sentiments), suffered most – presumably because of the trade war that the US has started with China. The Hong Kong market fell most, but Shanghai also fell heavily, -6%.

 

-Stockmarkets had a particularly-bad month. Only 4 grew, of the 25 we track; all of those were AsPac markets.

 

 

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Travel Industry Data Updates, May 27-31.

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FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data Updates, May 27-31.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Hotel business updates

31 May 2019

[] Hyatt plans 21 more hotels in Asia Pacific* by end-2020, which would be +25%. Brands: 2 Alila (an independent brand that Hyatt took over in 2018), 6 Andaz, 6 Grand, 7 Park.

*Notes: Hyatt includes part of the Middle East in this definition. Although most of the eastern part of Turkey is considered geographically to be in Asia – actually Asia Minor – the countries that Hyatt includes in its ‘Asia’ are not. And parts that are in Asia – such as that ‘Asian’ eastern Turkey – are not included in Hyatt’s list!

 

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports:

US hotels 19-25 May: occupancy +0.9% to 71.2%, average room rate +2.1% to US$133.81.

-Top-3 hotel groups in North America are Marriott 886,308 rooms, Hilton 703,238, Wyndham 546,716. Top-3 brands Hampton (part of Hilton group) 227,581 rooms, Holiday Inn Express (InterContinental) 203,792, Courtyard (Marriott) 147,462.

 

Travel business updates

30 May 2019

[] Greece’s DMO reports air arrivals April +18.7%, YTD +13.0%. Bank of Greece all arrivals March +9.1%, YTD +7.8%; spend +32.2%, +37.2%.

 

[] IATA (International Air Transport Association):

-Reports April RPKs +4.3%, ASKs +3.6%, load factor 82.8% +0.6pt. RPKs by region – Asia Pacific +2.1%, Europe +7.6%, Middle East +2.6%, North America +4.4%. International RPKs +5.1% – Asia Pacific +2.9%, Europe +8.0%, Middle East +2.9%, North America +5.5%. Domestic RPKs +2.8% – Australia -0.7%, Brazil +0.6%, China +3.4%, India -0.5%, Japan +3.4%, Russia +10.4%, US +4.1%.

-Forecasts 2019 RPKs will be +5.0% (they were +7.4% in 2018) – Asia Pacific +6.3% +9.5%, Europe +4.9% +7.5%, Middle East +2.0% +5.0%, North America +4.3% +5.3%.

 

[] The US DMO reports that visitors from China in 2018 were 2.9mn -5.7% – the first fall since 2003.
The DMO still forecasts growth this year, +2% to 3.3mn, then to 4.1mn in 2023. We calculate that would mean +7.17% annual average growth rate, possible for the China market in normal times – except that these are not normal times.

 

China domestic/outbound

29 May 2019

Research & Markets* (RM), a company, reports on China’s domestic and outbound market. Some findings:

-74% choose city breaks, 70% sun-beach-holidays as holiday destinations. No clarification if this is domestic, international, or total; RM rounded.

-57.5% of domestic travel is for leisure, 69.2% of international in 2018.

-Transport costs, US$249bn in 2018, were the largest domestic travel spend. No share given.

-International spend forecast to be US375bn in 2022 +11.3% AAGR (annual average growth rate, presumably from 2018).

-Retail spend, largest share, forecast to be US$115bn in 2022; AAGR not given.

*Notes: We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – most apparently due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

 

PATA’s misunderstandings

28 May 2019

PATA (Pacific Asia Travel Association), detailing data in its recently-released annual statistical report on the region, illustrates its misunderstanding of the data it has collected.

Its headline highlights one fact – that the region’s fastest growth was the number of visitor arrivals in Laos from Myanmar. Indeed, growth is big – +677%. But does PATA know that could be growth from, say, 50 visitors in 2017 to 400 in 2018?

For this reason, we have not excerpted much:

-81% of arrivals into Asia were from Asia.

-For the first time, PATA notes that counts for China and Hong Kong include some that would not normally be visitors. We have been saying that, and estimating the numbers, for 20 years. Although PATA is in a better position to estimate the numbers, it does not.

-Venezuela (yes) is listed as having the fastest annual average growth rate – albeit for arrivals in Chile and Peru.

 

World arrivals Q1

27 May 2019

WTO (World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO) reports for Q1:

-Visitor arrivals +4%; Americas +3%, Asia Pacific +6%, Europe +4%, Middle East +8%.

-Americas. Caribbean +17%; other regions not given.

-Asia Pacific. Northeast +9%; other regions not given.

-Europe. Southern and Mediterranean +5%, Central and Eastern +5%; other regions not given.

-North Africa +11%.

-Forecasts +3-4% for all-2019.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.