Travel Industry Data News, October 21-25

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Travel Industry Data News, October 21-25

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Hotel business updates

25 October 2019

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports:

-On Asia Pacific hotels Q3: occupancy -1.7% to 71.0%, ARR (average room rate) -0.5% to US$98.23.

-On Canada hotels Q3: occupancy -2.0% to 76.3%, ARR +0.4% to US$138.93 (C$183.39).

-On Europe hotels Q3: occupancy +0.6% to 79.1%, ARR +1.1% to US$134.84 (€121.36).

-On Middle East hotels Q3: occupancy +2.4% to 62.2%, ARR -6.7% to US$131.49.

 

Global Data on Australia, Southwest

24 October 2019

Global Data, a data and analytics company, reports on domestic-Australia travel and US airline Southwest. Some findings:

[] Forecasts domestic-Australia trips by sea will grow at 5.4% AAGR (annual average growth rate) from 3.9mn in 2018 to 5.1mn by 2023. We estimate GD’s between-year data at: 2019 4.2mn, 2020 4.5mn, 2021 4.75mn, 2022 4.9mn

[] On Southwest’s Q3:

-Comments that SW is world’s largest no-frills-airline. We reported for September 2017 that Europe’s Ryanair had overtaken SW.

-The worldwide grounding of Boeing’s B737max had caused US$210mn lower revenue for SW.

-SW’s US$659m net profit. Change not given; our database indicates +7.2%. We track different measures – generally seats sold, revenue, operating profit (rather than ‘net’ which can be influenced by many non-operating factors). These were -1.0%, +1.1%, +2.6% – not encouraging. GD may be missing a fall in SW’s fortunes.

*Notes:

-We have found in other reports that Global Data sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.

-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

PCW on UK travel

23 October 2019

PCW (Phocuswright, a travel research company specialising in online data) reports/forecasts on the UK*:

-Inbound will grow +3% this year.

-Jan-May outbound travel ‘roughly flat’; our database shows -0.2% Jan-May and -1.8% for the first half after -7.1% in June.

-Travel spend (presumed on outbound travel) grew ‘slightly’.

-Forecasts total travel (presumed inbound, outbound, domestic) US$65.1bn (at US$1 to £0.78) +1.7% this year.

-Bookings (presumed inbound, outbound, domestic) forecast to grow ‘at a similar rate’ through 2023.

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

TBA Tracking: Airline stock prices

22 October 2019

IATA (International Air Transport Association) reports September worldwide airline share prices +3.6% and YTD +2.13%.

Our TBA worldwide airline stock price index, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst shows, compared with the month earlier: +2.6% stocks, +3.8% markets.

 

US travel business updates

21 October 2019

[] ARC (the Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines), reports for September (any rounding by ARC): air tickets sold US$7.8bn +3.7%; average US roundtrip ticket US$496 -$2; passenger trips 24.5mn +3.7% (domestic – +4%, international +3%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$6.7mn +23%; EMD transactions +16%.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels:

-13-19 October: occupancy -0.9% to 72.4%, ARR +0.2% to US$135.99.

-Q3: occupancy -0.1% to 70.9%, ARR +0.8% to US$133.25.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, October 14-18.

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Travel Industry Data News, October 14-18.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Travel business updates

18 October 2019

[] Sales at Compagnie des Alpes, a ski resort company in France, Oct 18-Sep 19, were US$948.9mn (€854.011mn) +6.6%.

[] RMAA (Russian Marketing and Advertising Agency) reports that outbound travel from Russia grew +9% (RMAA rounded) in the first half. After that (period not specified) growth was +6.7%.

[] Data* at end of 3-day ITB Asia* in Singapore this week:

-As reported at start, exhibitors 1300 +30%, buyers 1250 +25%.

-Visitors 13,000 +18.2%.

-Business appointments 27,000 +8.0%. ITBA reports +7.4%, incorrect according to figures it released in 2018.

Organisers Messe Berlin has signed with the Singapore Tourism Board for the event to be held in Singapore for the next three years.

*Notes:

-Growth comparisons calculated by TBA from our database.

-MB and STB report this as 12th year. It was the 13th; the first was in Hong Kong in 1999, named ITA, not in Singapore in 2008.

-A full report on this topic in our Net Value monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Travel business updates

17 October 2019

[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in September at 7.07mn +1.2%, YTD 62.7mn +3.0%.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels:

-6-12 October: occupancy -1.4% to 70.8%, average room rate -1.2% to US$131.38.

-In September: occupancy -0.9% to 67.4%, average room rate +0.6% to US$131.93.

 

Outbound Asia

16 October 2019

Excerpts from II* findings on outbound travel from Asia (presumed Jan-Aug unless stated):

-Growth +6%. Our own Jan-Jun provisional data shows +4.4%. World growth Jan-Aug +4%.

-Within Asia 80% share; Europe 15%; America (noted as ‘country’ so presumed to be the US) 8%. This totals 103%; other regions (such as Africa, rest of the Americas, Australasia, Middle East) not given.

-Length of trip 5.9 nights (we calculate +5.4%). World 8 nights (II rounded).

-Spend US$1744 (at US$1 to €0.90; change not given). World US$1422.

-City breaks +9% for a 35% share. ‘Roundtrips’ (no further definition although this makes no sense as presumably 99.9% of trips are roundtrips) +3% 24%. Beach +6% 21%. Business travel/MICE +8% 17%. In other reports, II have had a category ‘tour holidays’ (II never defined this, and as it was open to interpretation, we wondered how those questioned defined it).

-2020 (presumed Jan-Dec) forecast +5%.

*Notes:

-Usually, II do not count travel from China into Hong Kong and Macau, which would be about 50% of the China total. II make no comment in this report, but we believe II include these two destinations in their growth calculations, but not in totals.

  Another common fault with II reports is that they mix categorisation. Would a Singapore passport holder living in Paris be included in II’s ‘Asian’ count into Spain? And a France passport holder living in Singapore? These are common faults of non-specialists, but II is supposed to be a leader among specialists!

-II=Germany-based IPK International (IPKI), a research company, with ITB Berlin (ITBB), the big travel trade exhibition in the city. Unfortunately, II are often casual in reporting their findings, although we believe they are precise in their research work.

-At press time, II had not answered our request for clarifications.

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Hotels in Hong Kong

15 October 2019

Travel Mole reports an S&P forecast of 50% fall in hotel revenues in Hong Kong – but little value as no period is given.

Other measures:

-August occupancy 66%, but reports some as 20% – but does that indicate some are still high-80s?

-MICE room rates -27%. Period not given, whether these are achieved or quoted rates, or source of data.

Hong Kong Tourism Board and Hong Kong Disneyland plan a ‘large-scale’ promotional campaign to attract MICE visitors to HK. This is surprising. MICE bookings are usually made longer in advance than other travel. And efforts would be almost 100% wasted if made while there are still riots in HK’s streets. However, ‘large-scale’ is meaningless; ‘large’ to one might be ‘small’ to another.

 

Travel business updates

14 October 2019

[] Research & Markets* (RM), a company, reports leisure arrivals AAGR (annual average growth rate) in Eastern Europe +8.8% 2014-18, business travel AAGR +7.2%.

*Notes: We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.

[] Data* at start of 3-day ITB Asia* in Singapore this week:

-Exhibitors 1300 +30%.

-Buyers 1250 +25%.

First-time DMOs are Armenia, Czech Republic, Macedonia (ITBA does not yet use its new name, North Macedonia), Malta, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia; CityMOs Busan, Frankfurt, Los Angeles.

*Notes:

-Growth comparisons calculated by TBA from our database.

-Organisers Messe Berlin and Singapore Tourism Board report this as 12th year. It was the 13th; the first was in Hong Kong in 1999, named ITA, not in Singapore in 2008.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, October 7 – 11.

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Travel Industry Data News, October 7 – 11.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Travel business updates

11 October 2019

[] Newly-released data from PATA (Pacific Asia Travel Association, a regional promotional body) shows 697mn +7.3% visitors in Asia Pacific* in 2018. YTD 2019 (period not specified) +6.2%.

*Notes: PATA’s destinations include many not usually associated with Asia Pacific – such as Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, US, and sometimes Turkey (yes). PATA’s data should thus be read with that qualification in mind. PATA gives no support (including response to questions) to non-member subscription publications such as this one, and so we are unable to clarify what may be misleading.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels 29 September-5 October: occupancy -3.9% to 68.1%, average room rate -3.8% to US$129.21.

[] IATA (International Air Transport Association) reports August RPKs +3.8%, ASKs +3.5%, load factor 85.7% +0.3pt. RPKs by region – Asia Pacific +4.9%, Europe +3.6%, Middle East +2.6%, North America +3.1%.

International RPKs +3.3% – Asia Pacific +3.5%, Europe +3.7%, Middle East +2.9%, North America +2.5%.

Domestic RPKs +4.7% – Australia -0.4%, Brazil -1.4%, China +10.1%, India +3.7%, Japan +2.1%, Russia +6.0%, US +3.9%.

[] Technavio forecasts AAGR (annual average growth rate) in the agritourism* market will be +18% over 2019-23.

*Notes:

-We understand agritourism means visits to farms etc. We are unable to determine from Technavio if its definition is more precise.

-At press time, Technavio had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

US visitor forecasts

10 October 2019

The US government has published its forecast for visitor arrivals over 2019-24. The main points*:

-A -1.0% fall forecast this year, to 79.1mn visitors. The previous forecast, in 2018, was a +3.7% growth to 80.9mn.

-The forecast in 2018 for visitors in 2022 was for 89.0mn; the new forecast for 2022 is for 85.3mn.

-Current forecast shows 90.8mn visitors in 2024. That would mean a +2.1% AAGR (annual average growth rate) over the forecast period, 2019-24 – faster than the +1.8% achieved over 2013-18.

-Of the top-5 markets, China and Korea are forecast to fall this year, and Germany to be flat.

-But all top-5 are forecast to grow in 2020.

-Over 2018-24 AAGR forecast to be +2.5% for the UK, +1.8% Japan, +2.8% China, +1.3% Korea, Brazil +2.8%.

*Notes:

-In 2018, the government adjusted past figures, which had the result of increasing the visitor total. We reported at the time that the new system certainly mis-categorised some figures that may or may not have been wrong in the past. We are unable to do more than accept the government’s new figures.

-Figures and commentary here are based on those new figures, unless explained otherwise.

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

PCW on Asean

8 October 2019

PCW (Phocuswright, a travel research company specialising in online data) report found:

-Quotes Global Data data that visitor arrivals in Asean* will be 155.4mn, which we calculate will be a 4.7% AAGR (annual average growth rate) over 2018-22.

  We calculate 133mn +6.9% in 2018 on more-or-less official counts, 120mn +7.9% after we correct Malaysia’s overcount, 116mn +8% after we correct Thailand’s overcount, 140mn +7% after correct Singapore’s undercount.

  Official forecasts for this year, 150mn +13%, 137mn +14%, 133mn +14%, 158mn +13%.

Other online data from PCW:

-Online travel in the region* grew to US$34.4bn in 2019, up from US$19.4bn in 2015. As 2019 has not finished, we assume this is a PCW estimate/forecast for this year. Forecast to be US$78bn ‘by 2025’ (we have assumed 2024).

-We calculate that would be a +15.4% AAGR 2015-19, and a forecast +17.8% AAGR if 2019-2024, +14.6% if 2019-25.

-That means online travel share is 33%.

*Notes:

-Asean comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.

-PCW intermixes Asean with ‘Southeast Asia’. They are a long way from being the same, and the geographical definition of SE (which would include, say, Taiwan) is different from the non-specific general term – which might include non-Asean Hong Kong, Macau, Timor, even Sri Lanka.

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our Net Value monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Travel business updates

7 October 2019

[] A new report from ECM European Cities Marketing on meetings data* in 2018 includes:

-Meetings growth +2.9%.

-Participants -3%.

-Participant days -5%.

-Corporate meetings fall (no data), participants -12.2%.

-Non-corporate meetings +9.6%, participants +4.6%.

*Based on 41 cities and 56,000 meetings. Where percentages are shown rounded, rounding by ECM.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, September 30 – October 4.

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Travel Industry Data News, September 30 – October 4.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

India to UAE

4 October 2019

Global Data*, a data and analytics company, forecasts travel from India to the United Arab Emirates* will be 3.3mn in 2023. GD calculates this as a +6.1% AAGR (annual average growth rate) 2019-23, but as 2019 has not finished, this is calculated on a GD estimate/forecast for this year.

GD adds that ‘visitation numbers from India to Saudi Arabia’* were 2.2mn in 2023. GD calculates this as a +5.4% AAGR; our calculations indicate +5.1%.

*Notes:

-Wording of definition for the Saudi data conflagrates outbound data with inbound. That introduces doubt on the UAE data, which otherwise appears to be an outbound count.

-We have found in other reports that Global Data sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.

-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks

3 October 2019

The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in September for US hotel companies was 4634 +1.6% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was +13.9%.

The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ for September, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 182.

The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ for September, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 197.

The ‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ for September, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows: World 219, Asia Pacific 77, Europe 191, US 390.

The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in September, from the current edition of our monthly Net Value report, was at 153.

The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong and New York, as well as Shanghai), in September from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 100.

Notes: The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at February 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

 

Travel business updates

2 October 2019

[] Greece’s DMO reports August air arrivals +4.4%, YTD +3.7%. Bank of Greece all arrivals July +2.4%, YTD +0.6%; spend +11.1%, YTD +13.6%.

[] Euromonitor* (EM), a UK-based market research company, forecasts worldwide travel business sales will be US$3tn in 2024 (EM reports ‘by 2024’, so this could be 2023). It puts growth at +3.3%, presumably AAGR (annual average growth rate), although EM does not clarify.

Other data, presumably for 2024:

-Online share 52%.

-Mobile share 25%.

-Domestic travel forecast to be 19bn trips ‘by 2024’. It puts that at +8% AAGR (EM rounded). EM does not qualify ‘trips’; we presume ‘overnights’.

*Notes: We have run a few critical reports on EM findings – most apparently due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, EM had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

TBA Tracking: September travel stocks’ ups and downs

1 October 2019

Travel stock prices (Asia Pacific, Europe, US) in September. Airlines: biggest growth, Easyjet +21%; biggest fall, Thai -11%. Hotels: Mandarin-Oriental +10%, Peninsula -10%. Tech: LastMinute +16%, Trivago -19%. China travel stocks (new): China Southern +7% (HK quote), cTrip -8%. Others: TUI (UK quote) +18%, Airbus -7%.

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Air-France/KLM +9%; biggest fall, China Eastern -15%. Hotels: Choice +6%, Peninsula -19%. Tech: LastMinute +8%, cTrip -17%. China travel stocks (new): CITS +6%, Air China -12%. Others: Boeing +7%, Avis -32%.

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 219, Asia Pacific 77, Europe 191, US 390. Index previous month: World 217, Asia Pacific 76, Europe 190, US 385.

TBA China Travel Stocks Index (new; quotes from China, Hong Kong, US): 100; previous month 92.

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 153; previous month 147.

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth Istanbul +7%; biggest fall (US) Travel Weekly -3%. Previous month: biggest growth Oslo +0.3%; biggest fall Singapore -6%.

Comments:

-Slight overall growth. Would be good, but it follows a particularly-bad month-earlier.

-Among airlines, Ryanair with +20% almost matched Easy, so this may be confidence in no-frills-airlines?

-Not necessarily, because ICAG’s UK quote was +13%, so perhaps these are falling-oil-price moves.

-As usual, India’s non-operating Jet, at -34%, was actually lowest.

-Also in trouble was the Cathay group, at -5%. Could be Hong Kong-troubles related, or Cathay’s leadership/China-kowtow troubles.

-For hotels, the Peninsula group has fallen fastest over the past two months.

-For tech, continued see-saw – worst one month is best next, big fall then big growth. However, Trivago’s -19% looks threatening; it is -66% on its end-2016 launch price.

-For others, TUI’s Germany quote, at +16%, was also good. And so were Avis +10% and Hertz +11% after so many bad months. A surprise was that Disney at -6% was almost the lowest.

-For China stocks, companies with 2-market quotes are usually close. This month, China Southern was +7% in Hong Kong, but only +1% in Shanghai.

-For markets, the fact that Travel Weekly was the lowest (general US markets all grew) indicates the travel business is underperforming the general market.

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index

30 September 2019

Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 147 in August. Previous month 150.

Comments:

-A bad month, albeit better than for general travel stocks. Five of our eight stocks fell.

-But the three markets where our stocks are quoted also fell. Outperforming their local market, even if falling, were Booking, Expedia, Lastminute, Travelport.

-cTrip’s fall, the biggest, may be related to the US-launched trade war with many countries, but particularly with China. (cTrip is China-based but US-quoted.)

-Trivago, the company we identified earlier as being in trouble, is still less than half its launch price.

-There seemed no other obvious pattern in other moves.

*Notes: NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech. The Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US – one of which, cTrip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for cTrip, end-2016 for Trivago.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

TBA Tracking: September travel stocks’ ups and downs

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TBA Tracking: September travel stocks’ ups and downs

Travel stock prices (Asia Pacific, Europe, US) in September.

Airlines: biggest growth, Easyjet +21%; biggest fall, Thai -11%.

Hotels: Mandarin-Oriental +10%, Peninsula -10%.

Tech: LastMinute +16%, Trivago -19%.

China travel stocks (new): China Southern +7% (HK quote), cTrip -8%.

Others: TUI (UK quote) +18%, Airbus -7%.

 

Previous month:

Airlines: biggest growth, Air-France/KLM +9%; biggest fall, China Eastern -15%.

Hotels: Choice +6%, Peninsula -19%.

Tech: LastMinute +8%, cTrip -17%.

China travel stocks (new): CITS +6%, Air China -12%.

Others: Boeing +7%, Avis -32%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 219, Asia Pacific 77, Europe 191, US 390. Index previous month: World 217, Asia Pacific 76, Europe 190, US 385.

 

TBA China Travel Stocks Index (new; quotes from China, Hong Kong, US): 100; previous month 92.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 153; previous month 147.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth Istanbul +7%; biggest fall (US) Travel Weekly -3%. Previous month: biggest growth Oslo +0.3%; biggest fall Singapore -6%.

 

Comments:

-Slight overall growth. Would be good, but it follows a particularly-bad month-earlier.

 

-Among airlines, Ryanair with +20% almost matched Easy, so this may be confidence in no-frills-airlines?

 

-Not necessarily, because ICAG’s UK quote was +13%, so perhaps these are falling-oil-price moves.

 

-As usual, India’s non-operating Jet, at -34%, was actually lowest.

 

-Also in trouble was the Cathay group, at -5%. Could be Hong Kong-troubles related, or Cathay’s leadership/China-kowtow troubles.

 

-For hotels, the Peninsula group has fallen fastest over the past two months.

 

-For tech, continued see-saw – worst one month is best next, big fall then big growth. However, Trivago’s -19% looks threatening; it is -66% on its end-2016 launch price.

 

-For others, TUI’s Germany quote, at +16%, was also good. And so were Avis +10% and Hertz +11% after so many bad months. A surprise was that Disney at -6% was almost the lowest.

 

-For China stocks, companies with 2-market quotes are usually close. This month, China Southern was +7% in Hong Kong, but only +1% in Shanghai.

 

-For markets, the fact that Travel Weekly was the lowest (general US markets all grew) indicates the travel business is underperforming the general market.

 

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.