Travel Industry Data News, July 22-26.

Leave a comment

FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, July 22-26.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Russia outbound

26 July 2019

Some findings on the Russia outbound market, by RMAA (Russian Marketing and Advertising Agency):

[] 69% of respondents buy air tickets online. Almost as widespread as the US, where it is 77%.

[] If a traveller watches a video about their trip before travelling, 65% watch YouTube, 24% an airline video, 20% Facebook, 12% OTA, and then others.

[] Among those who flew domestically, 43% did not use offline at all, 28% used offline and online.

[] Digital travellers made up their mind faster: 31% of them decided to buy a ticket within several hours.

[] 60% use PC or laptop, 8% smartphones.

[] 53% travel on vacation in couples, 28% travel alone, 8% in a group.

[] 51% decide on a trip within several days of travel (not enumerated, NE). 15% book tickets for travel after a few hours (NE) after booking a flight. 8% buy tickets several months (NE) before a departure.

[] For 70%, the cost of the ticket is a priority.

[] 30% are members of loyalty programs.

[] 40% go on vacation in Europe, 31% domestic.

[] 38% take a 2-week vacation, 36% one week.

[] 33% of travellers change their mind on which airline during the booking process, 56% book tickets of the company that they considered from the beginning, 39% choose different offers at the end of the process.

[] 32% buy tickets of only one airline.

[] 72% rely on their experience, 2% on advertising, 9% word-of-mouth, 10% online search.

[] Of those that are loyalty program members, 45% always fly one airline, 12% would look only at offers from one airline, 43% considered offers from other airlines but eventually booked the original one.

[] For those who are not members of a loyalty program, the shares were 25% 30% 44%.

 

Hotel business updates

25 July 2019

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports:

-on Middle East hotels in Q2: occupancy +2.6% to 61.7%, average room rate -7.2% to US$147.44.

-on US hotels 14-20 July: occupancy -0.5% to 77.9%, average room rate +0.5% to US$136.49.

-on US hotels in Q2: occupancy -0.1% to 70.0%, average room rate +1.2% to US$133.01.

 

MasterCard surveys outbound

24 July 2019

MasterCard reports:

[] China moved from #7 in outbound travellers to ‘overseas destinations’* in 2009 to #2 this year, after the US. MC does not count travel from what it calls ‘Mainland China’ to contiguous Hong Kong and Macau (but it does count travel to overseas Taiwan, technically also part of one China), but it does count US travel to contiguous Canada and Mexico.

[] MC does not add numbers to its lists.

[] After the US and China, MC’s top-5 includes Germany, UK, France.

[] It notes Korea’s growth, but actually, Korea overtook Japan in 2015 to become No2 from Asia Pacific.

[] Top-3 countries from top-5 sources: US – Mexico Canada Italy, China – Thailand Japan US, Germany – Italy Spain Austria, UK – Spain US India, France – Spain US UK.

[] Top-3 cities from top-5 sources: US – Cancun Toronto London, China – Bangkok Seoul Tokyo, Germany – Mallorca Bolzano* Tiroler Unterland*, UK – Mallorca Paris Dublin, France – London Marrakech Barcelona.

*Notes:

-All destinations shown are not ‘overseas’, but international.

-Two of Germany’s top-3 are adjacent to one another, in northern Italy and southern Austria (and which is not a city but an area; its capital is Innsbruck).

 

TBA Tracking: Index, travel stocks

23 July 2019

The June ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows: World 224, Asia Pacific 88, Europe 193, US 391. (Base: December 2006.)

 

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index

22 July 2019

Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 144 in June. Previous month 130.

Comments:

-eDreams growing fastest at +24%, and Travelport slowest at -18%.

-Three companies are still below their base listing price – cTrip, Travelport, Trivago.

-And those three are also below their end-2018 price.

-One, eDreams, joins Amadeus in doubling its 100 base price end-2014. It passed Amadeus and is now the leader in our Index.

-The company still in serious trouble is Trivago. If you invested US$100 in the company at end-2016, just after it listed, you could now cash in US$36.

*Notes: NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech. The Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US – one of which, cTrip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for cTrip, end-2016 for Trivago.

Data from the current edition of our monthly Net Value report, published by Travel Business Analyst. Full-review of these and other stocks, including all-year comparisons, in the next edition of our Net Value report.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Travel Industry Data News, July 15-19.

Leave a comment

FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, July 15-19.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Figures from France

19 July 2019

[] Summer* travel 1. Forecasts, reported by France’s DMO:

-For July, 1/3 of destinations forecast a visitor increase, 3/5 no change. That totals 93%.

-For August 4/5 forecast no change.

-The ‘gilets jaunes’ demonstrations/rioting affected 5% of travellers. The DMO regards this as ‘insignificant’. We think 5% is very big – 1.5mn travellers in the two summer months, for instance.

-2/3 of areas in France are ‘concerned about Brexit, but the DMO did not ask what this concern was expected to do to results.

*July, August.

[] Summer* travel 2. Forecasts by France-based research company Protourisme:

-31.5mn +4.3% planned to take a trip – 47% +2pt share.

-22.3mn +4.2% plan to stay in paying accommodation.

-A smaller share of those aged 18-24 will take a trip – 49% against 55% in 2018. Biggest share growth was those aged 35-50 – 57% against 50%.

-Growth for Paris – 62% against 59%.

-Average trip length for domestic travel 10.5 days, which we calculate is +5.0%.

-Accommodation; no change given. 42% rentals (such as apartments, AirBnB), 29% camping, 16% hotel, 12% clubs and holiday villages, 1% others (such as cruise).

-Holidaymakers in France +1.5mn trips, foreign -200k trips; no change given.

-Average family (4 people) budget US$1964 (at US$1 to €0.89) +7.3% – so US$437 per-person.

-Average budget for overseas trips US$3209, which we calculate is +4.2%.

*July, August.

[] Cote d’Azur. Following start of direct Beijing-Nice flights by Air China, due next month, the DMO of CDA* plans to develop ‘We Chat Cote d’Azur France Experience’ digital app.

Some measures for the all-France app, ‘We Chat France Experience’:

-33% of FITs from China (we presume into France) visit the site.

-5% conversion on coupons.

-50,000 sessions in high season.

-Average 150 seconds per visit.

Some measures on the China market into CDA (no change given for these):

-115,000 stays average 4 nights, of which 85,000 in hotels and residences, 30,000 air arrivals at Nice.

-Spend US$128 (at US$1 to €0.89) per day, US$843 per stay.

-Winter (usually considered Nov-Apr) 22% share; Jun-Sep 51%, Jul-Aug 30%.

-Air visitors: 41% leave on flights for Paris, 10% for London, 9% Geneva/Zurich, 6% Amsterdam, 5% Barcelona, 5% Dubai, 4% Frankfurt, 4% Rome.

*Cote d’Azur (CDA) in France – a ‘brandname’ also known as the South of France, the French Riviera, or sometimes by the names of some of its main cities, Cannes, Monaco/Monte Carlo, Nice, St Tropez. The problem is that – brand identity.

 

Travel business updates

19 July 2019

[] ARC (the Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines), reports for the first half: air tickets sold US$52.4bn +3.38%; average US roundtrip ticket US$512  +$10; passenger trips 161.9mn +2.4%; EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US $44mn +2% (IATA rounded); EMD transactions -3% (IATA rounded).

[] MKG* (a France-based hotel consultancy; name origin unknown) reports for the first half for France hotels, occupancy +0.2pt to 67% (MKG rounded), average room rate US$116.18 +2.8% (€103.4, MKG rounded).

*Notes: MKG focuses on hotel revpar (revenue per available room), which has little marketing value to those outside the hotel business. As a result, we reduce our report to measures other than revpar.

[] Scheduled air seats into Greece this year will have been 16.6mn -4.9%, according to the DMO.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels:

-7-13 July occupancy -2.4% to 74.2%, average room rate -0.6% to US$132.24.

-June occupancy -1.3% at 73.5%, average room rate +0.9% to US$134.52.

-May occupancy +0.9% at 68.7%, average room rate +1.6% to US$132.43.

 

Mexico outbound

17 July 2019

Global Data*, a data and analytics company, forecasts Mexico’s outbound travel spend will be US$16.9bn in 2018, +4.43% annual average growth rate 2018-23. Other findings:

-Additional data shows 2014 $14.1mn*, 2018 $13.6mn, 2019 $14.2mn, 2023 $16.9mn.

-Domestic travel 267mn trips in 2018. Compared with 20.3mn, but year not given.

-2018 Domestic transport spend US$32.9bn, international US$5.1bn. No other amplification given.

-Canada data given to support negative sentiment concerning travel to the US, but no US data given*. GD reports +35% for Canada in 2017, then +20% in 2018 to 342,000.

*Notes:

-GD reports other years as millions, but some sections show the correct numbers as billions.

-Our database indicates arrivals in the US from Mexico +3.9% in 2018, but the total is 18mn, so growth alone was 700k, twice Canada’s overall total.

-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.

-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

Reports on India hotels, Scandinavia outbound

16 July 2019

Research & Markets* (RM), a company, reports:

[] India’s hotel industry will reach a ‘value’ of US$17.8bn (Rs1210.87bn) by end-2023, growing at an AAGR of +13% from 2018. We do not know what RM means by ‘value’; we assume it is all revenue, including room, F&B, and other.

In 2017 (no later data), 53.6% of revenue of Indian hotels came from rooms.

RM also uses another irregular measure, although it names this ‘occupancy rate’. It reports this as a ‘percentage of days for which rooms are booked in a given period’. It reports this grew +65% in 2018. We cannot estimate the value of this measure.

RM reports visitor arrivals in India in January-August 2018 at +7.5%. Our database shows +4.3% for all 2018, and +1.8% for Jan-May 2019.

[] Scandinavia’s outbound travel market:

-Trips 50.5mn; neither change nor year given.

-2018 spend US$63.4bn +10.3%.

*Notes: We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

UK outbound

15 July 2019

Global Data*, a data and analytics company, forecasts UK departures to ‘Europe’ (we presume GD excludes the UK itself) will be 64.4mn in 2023, +2.9% annual average growth rate 2018-23.

  Our database indicates that Q1 2019 to Europe was +2.8% compared with an overall total +1.0%. This may indicate that travellers are finding their currency buys less, and so choosing closer destinations.

Other data:

-UK 2018 outbound 70.7mn, domestic 121.5mn. GD gives no more data. Our database, based on UK government data, indicates that GD’s ‘outbound’ is total outbound, not just to the rest of Europe. We have 71.7mn -1.4% in 2018, and to the rest of Europe just 57.3mn -1.5%.

-Spend* in 2018. Visitors US$34.2bn, outbound travel US$105.1bn, domestic US$137.6bn. No change given.

-Domestic travellers aged 35-49 took 56mn international and domestic trips in 2018. No change given.

-GD notes ‘visitor numbers’ from the UK to Ireland fell from 6.8% in 2018 to 1.7% this year. As GD provides no further amplification, we do not know: 1, if ‘visitor numbers’ means ‘visitor arrivals’ (and thus Ireland’s data and not the UK’s) or ‘trips’; 2, if GD’s figures are positive or negative (we believe positive); if ‘this year’ is a whole-year forecast, or YTD.

-GD notes that because Czech, Hungary, Romania currencies (GD’s selection) have not switched to Euros, that is better for UK travellers with their falling-value currency. The fact, of course, is not whether they are national currencies or Euros, but their moves against the UK currency. If those currencies have grown in value, then the cost of travel to those destinations will have grown in terms of UK currency – possibly higher than to Euro destinations. We are surprised GD does not appear to understand this basic economic reality.

*Notes:

-GD reports in US$ without exchange rate – a potentially misleading practice at the time the UK currency is falling – -6.3% over the past 12 months.

-We have found in other reports that GD sometimes misreads/misinterprets/misreports core travel data – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.

-At press time, GD had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

TROTTINGS*. How to run an airline

Leave a comment

TROTTINGS*. How to run an airline

Following two recent developments, my comments on running an airline and how many airline managers seem not to know. I have a section entitled PAGPFT (pronounced pag-puffed. People Are Getting Paid For This), and many would qualify for an entry.

 

Two recent developments are Air Belgium’s decision to stop its (only) scheduled route Brussels-Hong Kong, and Cathay Pacific’s purchase of HK Express.

 

My comments need to be read in conjunction with our description of broad airline types, see Notes*.

 

Air Belgium

Quick trip: In 2016 AB announced plan to fly Brussels-Hong Kong and mainland China points in 2017. The first, to Hong Kong, started June 2018, but was stopped September. None other started.

 

Our contemporary (April 2018) comments:

 

We expect AB’s new businessplan, from new owners in 2016, to fail before year-end. Some of the reasons:

-Frequency/routes. 4/week is not enough for its target market – upmarket. At least daily is needed.

-Routes. AB’s potential customers will fly other to other places as well of course, thus use other airlines. As most upmarket travellers are likely to be members in loyalty programs, they may prefer to stay with those other airlines when they fly to Hong Kong. If AB cannot start other routes itself, it should sign deals with other airlines on selected routes.

-Aircraft. The 4-engine A340 is a good aircraft, but costly for fuel, particularly for a start-up airline. Many would try to operate a 2-engine A350 or B787 on this route if traffic is not enough for B777s A380s etc.

-It has two A340s at present. That is enough for schedule reliability for Hong Kong flights, but at least four more will be needed to operate those other planned routes and to offer schedule reliability.

-Airport. AB plans to use Brussels Charleroi, not good for connections.

-China. AB considers Hong Kong a ‘China’ destination. Although correct in theory, it is not ‘China’ in terms of politics or in airline route-rights. Six by summer is not impossible of course, but looks over-ambitious.

-Sales via internet, but also GDS and travel agencies. GDS and agencies are usually too costly for a start-up because of fees.

-AB plans to employ 100 in Hong Kong this year. That is a foolishly-costly decision. We would think one staff member (Hong Kong Manager), with a handling agent for operations, and a GSA for sales – at least until it is established and/or the first 2/3 years.

-AB’s A340s will have economy, premium, business classes. That is at least one too many, and will also cause confusion, eg is ‘premium’ above ‘business’?

 

The interesting thing is that there is a market for Brussels-Hong Kong. It is just that AB management does not know how to run an airline to suit a particular market. What should have been done is partly obvious from our report in 2018 on what was wrong with the AB businessplan. Just a few things to add/amplify:

 

-It is very hard (if not impossible) to start an FSA* with a single route, and anything less than once daily. What business traveller would fly AB knowing the miles earned could not be burned on any other route? And there are other elements, such as schedule reliability, that most FSA managers know.

 

-Fares should be low (at least as low as the lowest in the market – Aeroflot via Moscow?), and simple. No travel agencies, no GDSs. Direct booking only.

 

-Invite travel writers with ticket-only offers (plus deals with 4/5 local hotels, in exchange for editorial. Freelancers are good because they try to sell their reports to many outlets. Create some marketing buzz.

 

 

 

Cathay Pacific

The Cathay group’s purchase of HK Express (main owner is China’s deeply-troubled HNA group) is a smart move. It was a long time coming, and did not seem to be coming – although may not be coming, as there has been a legal challenge by an HKE shareholder.

 

But if it happens, there is one cover-all proviso – HKE must be left to run itself separate of Cathay’s two other airlines – Dragon and Pacific.

 

We are not sure that Cathay management is capable of that – because many have a superiority complex, and there are no indications that it knows how to run a NFA*. After all, it could have converted what is now Cathay Dragon into a NFA long ago. (Now, it would make sense to make Dragon an LCA*.)

 

However, and in an awkward twist, Cathay itself has to find someone to run HKE – because HKE has not been managed well until now. Thus Cathay must find a manager who does not think like Cathay managers. Although not categorical, an indication will be if Cathay makes an internal move from someone in the group, or looks for someone outside. Strangely, the media loves NFA CEOs with an Irish passport – because Europe’s highly-successful NFA is Irish!

 

*Notes: Following are our airline-type definitions:

 Airline groups selling at least 75mn seats/year should have these three types of airline.

 

FSA = full-service-airline. Offering first/business/economy, travel agency bookings, meals/bookings/baggage/cancellations included, etc. As its name indicates – full service.

 

LCA = low-cost-airline. (Not a no-frills-airline; see next.) An FSA but with lower operating costs – cheaper longer-hours flight-deck crew, younger/new longer-hours cabin crew, tighter cost control (twinned 3-star hotel rooms, for example), fewer fare types, may have first and business cabins as well as economy, and which allows bookings through travel agencies etc. If relevant, usually similar to the parent airline, but a different name, and competition against parent airline allowed.

 

NFA = no-frills-airline. We believe that among the many essential elements that make a successful NFA are: shorthaul point-to-point routes; market freedom in terms of fares, routes; single aircraft type; where relevant, competition against parent airline allowed; extremely-low fares when bought at least three months in advance, say US$25; one fare at one time (no wholesale rates, travel agency commissions, etc); no refunds; no (free) service frills; single economy-class cabin; no (free) seat selection; two toilets for 150-seat aircraft; 25-minute turnaround time; cabin crew do daytime cabin cleaning; name and flight change charged at least US$25 each; no trade shows; plenty of consumer advertising and promotion; and much more. Developments in technology are making some of these ‘requirements’ less important.

 

 

 

 

*Trottings = Trip Jottings

*The Fox Trots: Travel Stories from The Fox.

 

Travel Industry Data News, July 8-12.

Leave a comment

FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, July 8-12.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

TBA Tracking: Airline financial results compared; airline stocks index

12 July 2019

Airline financial results compared

Our ‘Comparing airline financial results’ compares airlines against our calculated non-industry-standard measures. Data from the current Asia Pacific edition of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

This extract shows revenue-per-seat-sold and operating-profit-per-seat-sold, in US$ for latest reported fiscal year; whole groups where relevant. For Air Asia $32 $4.64, Air China $181 $19.0, Cathay Pacific $402 $8.49, Japan Airlines $313 $37.1, Singapore Airlines $338 $13.9.

Worldwide airline stocks index

The June ‘TBA-100 Index’ of airline stock prices worldwide, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows 201. Previous month 192. (Base 100: December 2004 or when first listed.)

 

Travel business updates

11 July 2019

[] ARC (the Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines), reports H1 of 2019 it had 240 +4.8% contracted airlines, 6345 +0.5% travel agencies with 12,011 retail locations (change NA).

[] Skift reports Sri Lanka visitors grew +66% in June. But that is compared with visitor numbers in May. Usually, there is little value in comparing one month with the previous month. May fell -77% against April – so does that counter the +66% point?

Selecting short-term statistics to prove a longterm point is risky. More time is needed. And sentiment (best wishes for Sri Lanka) should be separated from statistical indicators. A comment on negative statistics is not a negative sentiment against Sri Lanka.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels:

-30 June-6 July occupancy +2.6% to 65.3%, average room rate +2.6% to US$127.31.

-June occupancy -3% to -1%, average room rate 0% to 2%.

[] Thailand’s DMO targets 2020 ‘tourism’* revenue +10% on forecast* for this year.

  *Notes:

-Sometimes the DMO includes domestic travel in its ‘tourism’ comments, sometimes just international visitors.

-We have only the DMO’s forecast for international visitors for this year – +10% on 2018 – and not spend/revenue forecasts.

-At press time, the DMO had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

TBA Tracking: Travel Traffic Indices – Asia Pacific, Europe, US, world

10 July 2019

Asia Pacific

Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ from the current Asia Pacific edition of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2019: May +4%E; Apr +3.8%P; Mar +1.8%. Europe

Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ from the current Europe edition of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2019: May +3%E; Apr +2.8%P; Mar +1.6%.

US

Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2019: May +4%E; Apr +4.6%P; Mar +2.1%.

World

Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2019: May +4%E; Apr +4.0%P; Mar +2.1%.

 (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

 

TBA Tracking: Indices, Travel Stocks

9 July 2019

The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in June for US hotel companies was 4935 +6.2% (over previous month). YTD, their stock index was +21.3%.

The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Hotel Stocks Index’ for June, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 169.

The worldwide ‘TBA-100 Airline Stocks Index’ for June, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 201.

The ‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ for June, from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows: World 224, Asia Pacific 88, Europe 193, US 391.

The worldwide ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in June, from the current edition of our monthly Net Value report, was at 144.

The ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong and New York, as well as Shanghai), in June from the current editions of WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, was at 117.

Notes: The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at February 2000. The TBA Hotel and Airline stocks indices are based on 100 at December 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ 100 at December 2014, the ‘China Travel Stock Index’ 100 at December 2018. Or when first listed if later.

 

Europe cities in 2018 +4%

8 July 2019

ECM* reports that bednights in its 119 Europe city members in 2018 grew +4.2%, following +7.4% in 2017. Other findings:

-Top-5 were, in order of size, London, Paris, Berlin, Rome, Istanbul. Dropping out was Madrid.

-AAGR (annual average growth rate, 2013-18) +4.1%.

-Fastest-growing (size not given) sources were China +9.6%, Spain +8.5%, US +6.4%.

-Top city London fell heavily, -8.7%, although the Brexit-related fall in the UK currency was forecast to produce the opposite – fast growth. However, London is still by far the biggest and so this fall does not change its ranking; its 71.1mn bednights compare with Paris’s 52.5mn.

-Some fast growths among the top-10 – by size Paris +9.2%, Istanbul +20.3%, Munich +9.3%. Growth in Istanbul is a surprise, because its coup-attempt was in 2016, which would normally have produced a fast growth in 2017, not 2018.

Our database indicates other important changes, which have not raised any comment from ECM:

-7 of the top-10 changed their figures from 2017. In all cases except Paris, this change resulted in a higher total in 2018. Munich was the biggest change, from what we calculate to be a -4.9% fall into a currently-stated +9.3% growth. We believe this difference is simply that not all data was available when the 2017 results were first published.

-Amsterdam dropped out of top-10 as Istanbul moved in.

*Notes: ECM=European Cities Marketing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Travel Industry Data News, July 1-5.

Leave a comment

FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, July 1-5.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

TBA Tracking: Indices, hotel stocks, China travel stocks

5 July 2019

Hotel stocks worldwide

The June ‘TBA-100 Index’ of hotel stock prices worldwide, from the current editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows 169. Previous month 163. (Base 100: December 2000 or when first listed.)

China travel stocks

The June ‘China Travel Stock Index’ of China stock prices (from China companies quoted in Hong Kong and New York, as well as Shanghai), from the current editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows 117. Previous month 103. (Base 100: December 2018.)

 

Travel business updates

4 July 2019

[] IATA (International Air Transport Association) reports for May RPKs +4.5%, ASKs +2.7%, load factor 81.5%, +1.4pt. RPKs by region – Asia Pacific +4.5%, Europe +5.4%, Middle East +0.7%, North America +4.5%.

International RPKs +4.3% – Asia Pacific +4.0%, Europe +5.4%, Middle East -0.8%, North America +4.8%.

Domestic RPKs +4.8% – Australia +1.1%, Brazil +1.3%, China +7.6%, India +6.0%, Japan +6.6%, Russia +10.6%, US +4.6%.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports on US hotels 23-29 June: occupancy -0.5% to 75.5%, average room rate +1.4% to US$133.83.

[] Research & Markets* (RM), a company, forecasts China’s hotel market will be US$136bn (Y938bn) by end-2023. RM does not further define this figure (we believe it is hotel room revenue, excluding other revenue) or give growth.

RM also forecasts 130mn visitors ‘by’ 2020, which could mean this year. Many methods are used to count China visitors. WTO (World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO), for instance, gives 62.9mn in 2018 because it has its own formula to count arrivals from (technically domestic sources) Hong Kong and Macau. RM appears to include most arrivals from these two territories.

*Notes: We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – most apparently due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

TBA Tracking: Net-Value Travel-Tech stock prices and index

3 July 2019

Our NVTT* stock index, which measures stock prices of OTAs, platforms, and Amadeus, was at 144 in June. Previous month 130.

Comments:

-eDreams growing fastest at +24%, and Travelport slowest, flat.

-Three companies are still below their base listing price – cTrip, Travelport, Trivago.

-And those three are also below their end-2018 price.

-One, eDreams, joins Amadeus in doubling its 100 base price end-2014. It passed Amadeus and is now the leader in our Index.

-The company still in serious trouble is Trivago. If you invested $100 in the company at end-2016, just after it listed, you could now cash in $36.

*Notes: NVTT=Net-Value Travel-Tech. The Index includes three companies quoted in Europe, and five in the US – one of which, cTrip, is China-based, and another, Trivago, is Germany-based. Base-100 end-2014 for all except end-2015 for cTrip, end-2016 for Trivago.

 

TBA Tracking: monthly seat sales, full-service and no-frills airlines

2 July 2019

Our calculation of growth in seat sales of full-service (FSA) and no-frills (NFA) airlines in Europe in March, from the current editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst, shows +6.2% for FSAs, +7.2% for NFAs, total +6.6%. Previous month +6.5% +9.4% +7.8%.

 

TBA Tracking: June travel stocks; Europe/US up, AsPac down

1 July 2019

Travel stock prices (Asia Pacific, Europe, US) in June. Airlines: biggest growth, American +20%; biggest fall, Lufthansa -12%. Hotels: Wynn +16%, Peninsula -8%. Tech: eDreams +24%, Travelport 0.0%. China travel stocks (new): Air China (China quote) +13%, Jinjiang (China quote) -0.2%. Others: Avis +24%, Thomas Cook -24%.

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Jet (India) +8%; biggest fall, China Southern -26%. Hotels: Millennium & Copthorne +12%, Marriott -17%. Tech: LastMinute +23%, cTrip -18%. China travel stocks (new): HNA (airline, not group; China quote) -8.2% (sic), China Southern (HK quote) -26%. Others: Amex -2% (sic), Thomas Cook -20%.

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 224, Asia Pacific 88, Europe 193, US 391. Index previous month: World 210, Asia Pacific 89, Europe 188, US 351.

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 144; previous month 130.

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, New York-Nasdaq +7%; biggest fall India -1%. Previous month: biggest growth India +2%; biggest fall Hong Kong -9%.

Comments:

-As usual, we’ve cheated a bit. Biggest airline fall was actually Jet (India), and the biggest actual hotel growth was M&C. See next.

-Jet fell -54% as hope – of a restart, or moneyed buyer – faded. Millennium & Copthorne grew +40%. A corporate-related buyer (CDL) offered a 37% premium to buy M&C stock; the same reason the stock was our fastest-grower the previous month, due to market rumours of the CDL buy-out.

-Thomas Cook fell another -24%, and is now one-third its end-2018 price. A buyer or liquidation looks likely.

-All our China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) grew; the previous month they all fell. Welcome to China’s roller coaster.

-Tech had a good month as well; all grew.

-Asia Pacific doing badly. Its Index fell again; our other two regions, and the world, grew. That said, our Index includes India’s Jet. This will be replaced and historical numbers adjusted in next month’s bulletin.

-Lufthansa’s price, despite good operational results, has not been doing well for some time. It is half, -51%, its end-2017 price, and -23% its end-2018 price.

-Similar for Ryanair. It fell -11% although its two main rivals, Easy and Wizz, both grew +9%.

-In Asia Pacific, trading in China’s HNA-group stock remains suspended – since April.

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

TBA Tracking: June travel stocks; Europe/US up, AsPac down

Leave a comment

FOXTROTS*

 

 

TBA Tracking: June travel stocks; Europe/US up, AsPac down

 

Travel stock prices (Asia Pacific, Europe, US) in June.

 

Airlines: biggest growth, American +20%; biggest fall, Lufthansa -12%.

Hotels: Wynn +16%, Peninsula -8%.

Tech: eDreams +24%, Travelport 0.0%.

China travel stocks (new): Air China (China quote) +13%, Jinjiang (China quote) -0.2%.

Others: Avis +24%, Thomas Cook -24%.

 

Previous month:

 

Airlines: biggest growth, Jet (India) +8%; biggest fall, China Southern -26%.

Hotels: Millennium & Copthorne +12%, Marriott -17%.

Tech: LastMinute +23%, cTrip -18%.

China travel stocks (new): HNA (airline, not group; China quote) -8.2% (sic), China Southern (HK quote) -26%.

Others: Amex -2% (sic), Thomas Cook -20%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 224, Asia Pacific 88, Europe 193, US 391. Index previous month: World 210, Asia Pacific 89, Europe 188, US 351.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 144; previous month 130.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, New York-Nasdaq +7%; biggest fall India -1%. Previous month: biggest growth India +2%; biggest fall Hong Kong -9%.

 

Comments:

-As usual, we’ve cheated a bit. Biggest airline fall was actually Jet (India), and the biggest actual hotel growth was M&C. See next.

 

-Jet fell -54% as hope – of a restart, or moneyed buyer – faded. Millennium & Copthorne grew +40%. A corporate-related buyer (CDL) offered a 37% premium to buy M&C stock; the same reason the stock was our fastest-grower the previous month, due to market rumours of the CDL buy-out.

 

-Thomas Cook fell another -24%, and is now one-third its end-2018 price. A buyer or liquidation looks likely.

 

-All our China stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US) grew; the previous month they all fell. Welcome to China’s roller coaster.

 

-Tech had a good month as well; all grew.

 

-Asia Pacific doing badly. Its Index fell again; our other two regions, and the world, grew. That said, our Index includes India’s Jet. This will be replaced and historical numbers adjusted in next month’s bulletin.

 

-Lufthansa’s price, despite good operational results, has not been doing well for some time. It is half, -51%, its end-2017 price, and -23% its end-2018 price.

 

-Likewise for Ryanair. It fell -11% although its two main rivals, Easy and Wizz, both grew +9%.

 

-In Asia Pacific, trading in China’s HNA-group stock remains suspended – since April.

 

 

 

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.