FOXTROTS*

Travel-Industry-Data News, December 26-30.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

Travel business updates

30 December 2022

[] TDN* reports that GBTA* forecasts that 2023 business travel spend will be 40% below previous estimate, which TDN reports as a US$550bn loss.

*Notes:

-GBTA = US-based Global Business Travel Association.

-TDN is Greece-based publication Travel Daily News.

-Previous data not given.

[] Our precis of HNN* report on 2022 US travel and two hotels:

-3.2% of flights were cancelled in June 2022, compared with 2.4% in 2019. Note 1. Not known why this month chosen.

-Complaints about airlines in June 2022 +269.5% compared with June 2019. Note 1.

-Crowne Plaza HY36*, New York. International bookings +83% year. Bookings from Asia 9% of 2019 levels. OTA bookings 38% in 2022, 44% in 2021. Note 2. 1, Name means at Hudson Yards on 36th Street. 2, Other data to put this into perspective not given.

-Surfjack Hotel, Hawaii. Guests from Europe 9% share in Q3. Japan share 3% in 2022; it was 17% in pre-covid 2019; Oceania 5% 20%. US mainland 2022 share 52%. In 2022, 19% of bookings via an OTA, 47% direct, 30% web. In 2019, 48% 13% 15%.

*Notes:

-HNN = Hotel News Now, the publication division of STR (Smith Travel Research).

-HNN also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

[] STR* reports on US hotels.

Weekly 7-day periods through:

-24 December (against comparable week in 2019, not 2020 or 2021) occupancy 43.9% (-9.7%), average room rate US$132.29 (+2.3%)

-17 December 54.5% (+9.2%) US$135.08 (+23.7%)

-10 December 59.6% (-1.2%) US$144.79 (+15.4%)

End-month 7-day periods:

-November 50.4% (-0.5%) US$135.49 (+20.4%)

-October 65.8% (+5.2%) US$152.94 (+21.4%)

-September 70.0% (-1.5%) US$157.99 (+15.7%)

*Notes:

-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel business updates

29 December 2022

[] Our precis of TDN* report on hotels in Canada in November from STR* data:

-Occupancy 61.0% +1.6%, average room rate US$132.57 (at US$1 to C$1.28) +14.8%.

-Occupancy-index ‘over recent months’ +1.6% compared with pre-covid. Note 1. 1, Period not clarified. 2, Assume pre-covid is 2019.

-Weekday occupancy-index, used as proxy for business travel, ‘in line’ with 2019. Weekend occupancy-index, used as proxy for leisure travel, +107% compared with pre-covid 2019.

-Average room rate +14.8% compared with 2019, weekends +22%. Note 2. Weekdays not given.

-Highest among provinces and territories, Manitoba 76.6%, +16.3% compared with 2019. Lowest Alberta 53.4% +3.2%.

-Highest among major cities, Vancouver 75.9%, +3.5% compared with 2019. Lowest Edmonton 53.5% -2.8%.

*Notes:

-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.

-TDN is Greece-based publication Travel Daily News.

-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

[] Our precis of HNN* report on hotel results during recent COPs*:

-In Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, during days of COP27 in November, occupancy -12% compared with 2019. In Glasgow during COP26 in 2020 +16% compared with 2019. In Madrid during COP25 in 2019 +2% compared with 2018. Note 1.

SES:

-Occupancy -31% November 18, -1% November 7.

-Average room rate (ARR) during event US$400. Note 2.

-ARR in E£ +718% November 18 compared with 2019, +608% Nov 17, +1127% Nov 7, +181% October 31, +53% October 24. Note 3.

-ARR in US$ +437% November 18, +365% Nov 17, +732% Nov 7. Note 4.

*Notes:

Our Notes on this topic are too numerous to be conveniently included here. Full details, including those marked here with a ‘Note’ reference, are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Travel business updates

28 December 2022

[] Our precis of HNN* report on 2022 hotel deals*:

-US$29bn +10.4% in total transaction volume. Note 1.

-Individual hotel sales in 2022 871, +136% compared with pre-covid 2019. Note 2.

-LW Hospitality Advisors reports in Q3 there were 119 +35% single-asset sales worth US$3.7bn -24%, or US$212,000 per key -19%. Q2 133 US$5.3bn US$248,000. Q1 128 US$7.9bn US$306,000. Q3 2021 88 US$4.8bn US$261,000.

-Brookfield bought Watermark Lodging for US$3.8bn. Note 3.

-Tilman Fertitta bought 260-room Montage Laguna Beach, California for US$641mn.

-Blackstone and Starwood Capital bought 111 Wood Spring Suites hotels for US$1.46bn.

-Cerberus Capital and Highgate bought Core Point Lodging for US$1.5bn.

*Notes:

Our Notes on this topic are too numerous to be conveniently included here. Full details, including those marked here with a ‘Note’ reference, are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

[] Our precis of TDN* report on ETC* travel research:

-94% were satisfied/very satisfied with their Europe holiday in summer 2022.

-91% have a positive perception of Europe as a visitor destination.

-Reference Russia’s war on Ukraine, 40% will not visit countries ‘neighbouring the conflict zone*’. 7% will not visit anywhere in East Europe. Note 1.

-22% are ‘concerned’ about covid when they plan their travel. Note 2.

-75% say inflation will ‘impact’ their travel. Note 3.

*Notes:

Our Notes on this topic are too numerous to be conveniently included here. Full details, including those marked here with a ‘Note’ reference, are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Travel business updates

27 December 2022

[] ARC* reports weekly percentage movements for US travel agencies:

  (Key: 1. Tickets sold, US$. 2. Tickets sold, number. 3. Corporate tickets sold. 4. Online tickets sold. 5. Leisure/Other tickets sold.)

52-week-average:

-Compared with 2021. 1. 39.7%. 2. 104.6%. 3. 104.7%. 4. 0.6%. 5. 82.0%.

-Compared with 2019. 1. -20.2%. 2. -15.0%. 3. -34.1%. 4. -22.8%. 5. -2.1%.

Weekly 7-day periods, compared with 2021, through:

-December 25. 1. 37.6%. 2. 100.2%. 3. 62.9%. 4. 8.7%. 5. 69.0%.

-December 18. 1. 17.9%. 2. 61.1%. 3. 34.3%. 4. -6.0%. 5. 44.7%.

-December 11. 1. 18.4%. 2. 57.0%. 3. 34.2%. 4. -4.7%. 5. 43.2%.

Weekly 7-day periods, compared with 2019, through:

-December 25. 1. -24.2%. 2. -18.6%. 3. -38.3%. 4. -28.2%. 5. -6.4%.

-December 18. 1. -22.8%. 2. -12.8%. 3. -35.7%. 4. -29.5%. 5. -1.5%.

-December 11. 1. -27.6%. 2. -19.2%. 3. -38.9%. 4. -34.6%. 5. -6.6%.

End-month 7-day periods, compared with 2021:

-November. 1. 12.4%. 2. 41.1%. 3. 29.8%. 4.. 5..

-October. 1. 11.4%. 2. 53.2%. 3. 46.8%. 4. -21.3%. 5. 42.6%.

-September. 1. 33.2%. 2. 109.7%. 3. 87.9%. 4. -9.9%. 5. 79.0%.

End-month 7-day periods, compared with 2019:

-November. 1. -27.9%. 2. -22.4%. 3. -45.9%. 4. -30.9%. 5. -6.2%.

-October. 1. -17.0%. 2. -7.9%. 3. -27.2%. 4. -25.0%. 5. 5.6%.

-September. 1. -17.4%. 2. -7.3%. 3. -26.2%. 4. -24.2%. 5. 2.3%.

*Notes:

-ARC = Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines.

-A full report on this topic in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

[] Thailand’s DMO (Tourism Authority of Thailand) reports:

-2022 ‘tourism revenue’ US$39.1bn (at US$1 to Bht38.4), 50% of pre-covid 2019. Note 1.

-2022 visitor arrivals forecast to be 11.5mn. Note 2.

-December 31-January 2 forecast domestic travel 3.14mn trips, spending US$291.7mn. Note 3.

*Notes:

Our Notes on this topic are too numerous to be conveniently included here. Full details, including those marked here with a ‘Note’ reference, are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

Online travel agencies in Asia Pacific/Australia

26 December 2022

See Introduction for October 27.

Notes: See Note 1 entry for October 27.

Asia Pacific

-Travellers booked 705mn ‘nights’ through OTAs in 2019, 10% of total. Note 1.

-OTAs ‘generated’ US$4.0bn -7.0% in 2021, US$4.3bn -72.3% in 2020. Note 2. Definition of what was generated not given – sales, spend, Other?

-In 2021, sales share for independent hotels 58%, for all bookings 34%.

-In 2021, sales share for hotels 58%, for all bookings 43%.

-OTAs generated 169,000 -16.3% ‘additional’ jobs in 2021, 202k -79.3% in 2020. Note 3.

Australia

-Travellers booked 8mn -42.9% ‘roomnights’ through OTAs in 2021, 9% of total 90mn, 14mn -65.0% in 2020, 12% of total 114mn. Note 4.

-OTAs generated an ‘additional GDP’ of US$325mn (at US$1 to A$1.54) -16.7% in 2021, US$390mn -62.5% in 2020. Note 5.

-50% of international ‘overnight stays…[were] arranged by individuals’ from Asia Pacific markets, including 10% from China, 10% New Zealand. Note 6.

-50% of international ‘overnight stays’ from longhaul markets compared with 15% for the total.

-In 2021 70% of bookings were for ‘alternative accommodation’, compared with 28% for the total. Note 7.

-In 2021, bookings in alternative accommodation generated an ‘additional’ 300,000 nights in Australia. Note 8.

-In 2021, OTAs generated US$260mn in ‘total incremental GDP’ and 3000 ‘total’ jobs. Note 9.

-OTAs generated 5000 (no growth) ‘additional’ jobs in 2021, 5k -58.3% in 2020. Note 10.

*Notes:

Our Notes on this topic are too numerous to be conveniently included here. Full details, including those marked here with a ‘Note’ reference, are shown in our W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know monthly-subscription-report if we have included this topic there. If not, we will provide details to W.Y.S.K subscribers on request.

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.