FOXTROTS*

TBA Tracking: April travel stocks’ ups and downs.

1 May 2024

Commentary (category/sector/index numbers below):

-The ‘Big Picture’ in a word or two – oh no.

-Our YTD calculation for all stocks and categories is now our ‘default’ commentary in this section, unless noted otherwise. At end of last month +1%.

-Asia Pacific did better than other regions month on month, but YTD its +0.01% is behind Europe’s +2%, but ahead of the US, -3%.

-The US had a bad month, but at -6% is much closer to recovery to pre-covid 2019 than AsPac -23%, Europe -26%.

-China fell again, -1% over March and now -20% over 2019.

-Boeing is not as bad as expected, -13% over March, but all US was -11%.

-What’s happening at Air France-KLM? Down -29% and an eye-watering -81% compared with 2019; its stockmarket was +6% +34%.

-We’ve added Sixt to our car-rental coverage, to balance US-based Avis and Hertz. But the other two big players – Enterprise (that, plus Alamo, National), Europcar – are not quoted. All three down, see below.

-Unusually, many stockmarkets fell – 13 of our 24.

-In our ‘Giants’ category (12 of the world’s biggest travel companies), a bad month, with nine down over March.

-Our ‘FSA’ category was also down, with half of them falling.

-In our ‘NFA’ category, worse than FSAs, as now becoming normal.

-Our ‘Travel-Tech’ category managed a +0.1% growth over March.

-Tears in our ‘Fun’ category – just two growing, out of nine.

Selected category-specifics (compared with previous month):

-Giant airlines, airline groups (FSAs, full-service-airlines). China Southern +1% (Shanghai), Delta +5%, ICAG -1% (London), Lufthansa -8%.

-NFAs (no-frills-airlines). Air Asia +13%, Ryanair -4%, Southwest -11%, Spring China +3%.

-Giant hotel groups. Accor -5%, AirBnB -4%, InterContinental -5%, Jinjiang +1%, Marriott -6%.

-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin +8%, Shangri-La +12%.

-Big travel groups. China United -15%, Flight Centre -3%, GBTG +1%, TUI -13% (Frankfurt).

-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM -16%, Sands -14%.

-Car renters. Avis -22%, Sixt -6%. Hertz, see below.

-Planemakers. Airbus -9%, Boeing -13%, Embraer +0.1%.

-Big airports, airport groups. ADP -6%, Corporacion America APs +1%, Fraport -4%, Guangzhou +3%.

-Cruisers. Carnival -9%, RCC +0.4%.

-Travel-tech heavies. AirBnB -4%, Amadeus +1%, Booking -5%, Expedia -2%, Trip +12% (Hong Kong).

-Fun, for fun (ie leisure). Banyan Tree +3%, Norwegian Cruises -10%, Fosun +5%, Hawaiian -5%, Ryanair -4%, Sun Int’l +2%, TUI London -13%, Walt Disney -9%, Wynn -10%.

-No-hopers. Hertz -42%, Jet India -2%, Norwegian Air -11%, SAS -17%.

-Big stockmarkets. Frankfurt -3%, Hong Kong +7%, London +2%, Tokyo -4%, US (average of our four) -5%.

Numbers – Sectors (compared with previous month):

-Big Picture. (Numbers repeated in different sections below.)

All – World -2%, Asia Pacific +1%, Europe -5%, US -8%, RoW +2%.

World – Airlines -4%, Hotels -3%, Others -3%.

-World (travel-related stocks), last month: -2%.

Previous month: +4%.

Last month, compared with end-2019: -4%.

-World, last month: Airlines -4%, Hotels -3%, Others -3%.

Previous month: Airlines +4%, Hotels +0.5%, Others +1%.

Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -39%, Hotels +2%, Others -20%.

-Regions, all sectors, last month: Asia Pacific +1%, Europe -5%, US -8%, RoW +2%.

Previous month: Asia Pacific -0.2%, Europe +5%, US +0.1%, RoW +10%.

Last month, compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -23%, Europe -26%, US -6%, RoW +38%.

-Asia Pacific, including China, last month: Airlines +2%, Hotels +3%, Others -3%.

Previous month: Airlines -3%, Hotels +1%, Others +0.3%.

Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -15%, Hotels -13%, Others -33%.

-Asia Pacific, excluding China, last month: Airlines -1%, Hotels +4%, Others +3%.

Previous month: Airlines +2%, Hotels +7%, Others -6%.

Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -23%, Hotels -15%, Others -37%.

-China, last month: -1%.

Previous month: -2%.

Last month, compared with end-2019: -20%.

–China travel stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US), last month: +2%.

Previous month: -3%.

Last month, compared with end-2019: -27%.

-Europe, last month: Airlines -4%, Hotels -4%, Others -6%.

Previous month: Airlines +6%, Hotels +3%, Others +6%.

Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -54%, Hotels -2%, Others -23%.

-US, last month: Airlines -8%, Hotels -8%, Others -6%.

Previous month: Airlines +5%, Hotels +3%, Others +3%.

Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -40%, Hotels +23%, Others -1%.

-FSAs, last month: -2%.

Previous month: +4%.

Last month, compared with end-2019: -41%.

-NFAs, last month: -4%.

Previous month: -7%.

Last month, compared with end-2019: -48%.

-Travel-tech, last month: +0.2%.

Previous month: +2%.

Last month, compared with end-2019: -5%.

-‘Giants’, last month: -5%.

Previous month: +4%.

Last month, compared with end-2019: -14%.

-Stockmarkets, last month: -0.4%.

Previous month: +3%.

Last month, compared with end-2019: +58%.

Numbers – Indices (compared with previous month):

-TBA Travel Stocks Index, last month: World 237, Asia Pacific 60, Europe 365, US 286.

Previous month: World 242, Asia Pacific 59, Europe 357, US 309.

End-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.

-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US), last month 78.

Previous month 76.

End-2019 105.

-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index, last month 136.

Previous month 138.

End-2019 170.

Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Our February issues include annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.

The Fox. Remember, I’ll be famous after I’m dead.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.