FOXTROTS*
Travel-Industry-Data News, June 3-7.
Travel business updates
7 June 2024
[] Our summary of PCW* report on type of accommodation used in past 12 months by Spanish travellers*:
-Hotel 70% share 2023, 70% 2022, 80% 2021.
-Short-term-rental* 41 32 30.
-Home of friends/family * 25 24 10.
-Bed & Breakfast* 13 14 6.
*Notes:
-PCW is Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data, or Phocuswire, a news outlet. The Northstar travel group bought it in 2011 from the late founder Philip C Wolf, after whom it had been named PhoCusWright.
-Most are our Net Value estimates on PCW data.
–Definition vague. Not known if domestic, international, or both.
-Not known if, as stated, covers nationals of Spain wherever they live, or all residents in the country.
-As shown, PCW has different categories for Short-Term-Rental and Bed & Breakfast. We do not know in which category AirBnB, for example, would be placed (probably STR), or what is the difference between these two, and whether travellers make the same distinction.
-As 2020, 2021, and even 2022 totals are likely to be greatly different from pre-covid/2019 ‘norms’, calculations that include any of these years are likely be misleading. For a clearer indicator, calculations should start from a pre-covid year, say 2019.
[] India’s IndiGo airline reports for its fiscal year Apr 23-Mar 24:
-Seats sold 107mn +25%.
-Revenue US$8.58bn +27% (which we have converted at US$1 to Rs83).
-Profit US$988mn. Note 1. Not noted if operating- or net-.
[] Our summary of STR* report on US hotels:
Weekly 7-day periods through:
1 June occupancy (against comparable week in 2023) 62.0% (+0.9%), average room rate US$150.87 (+0.1%)
-25 May 67.7% (+1.6%) US$160.67 (+2.3%)
-18 May 67.4% (+0.2%) US$163.11 (+2.6%)
End-month 7-day periods:
-April 65.7% (-1.2%) US$154.44 (-1.3%)
-March 62.3% (-5.6%) US$157.14 (-0.7%)
-February 62.0% (-3.3%) US$156.62 (+0.3%)
*Notes:
-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
WTO world travel update
6 June 2024
[] Our summary of WTO* report on inbound and outbound travel in 2023:
Inbound
-Top-5 visitors. France 100mn, Spain 85mn, US 66mn, Italy 57mn, Turkey 55mn. Note 1. Changes not given; we calculate, respectively, +7% +19% +31% +15% +9%.
-Rest of top-10. Mexico, UK, Germany, Greece, Austria. Note 2. 1, Presumed to be in order of size. 2, Numbers not given.
-Other comments (selected by WTO). Italy, Turkey, Mexico, Germany, Austria all grew one place compared with pre-covid 2019.UK grew from 10 to 7, Greece from 13 to 9. Note 3. Other changes not given.
-Top-5 visitor spend. US US$176bn, Spain US$92bn, UK US$74bn, France US$69bn, Italy US$56bn.
-Rest of top-10. UAE, Turkey, Australia, Canada, Japan, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Macau, India, Mexico. Note 2.
-Other comments (selected by WTO). UK moved from 5 to 3, compared with pre-covid 2019, UAE from 13 to 6, Turkey 12 7, Canada 15 9, Saudi Arabia 27 12, Mexico 17 15, Croatia 32 25, Morocco 41 31, Dominican R 43 34, Qatar 51 37, Colombia 50 44. Note 2.
Outbound
-Top-5 spend*. Chinese* US$196.5bn, US US$150bn, Germany US$112bn, UK US$110bn, France US$49bn. Note 4. 1, Changes not given. 2, Not known if, as stated, covers nationals of China wherever they live, or all residents in the country.
-Rest of top-10. Canada, Italy, India, Russia, Korea. Note 2.
-Other comments (selected by WTO). India grew from 14 in 2019 to 8, Italy from 10 to 7. Note 5. Other changes not given.
Outlook
-Visitors 89% in 2023 compared with 2019, 97% this Q1. Forecasts 102% for all-2024.
*Notes:
-WTO – World Tourism Organization, which it abbreviates to UNWTO – is a Spain-based UN-designated lobbying body for the travel business.
-WTO does not note that it calculates outbound travel figures by totalling spend by all visitors in each destination. Because of different methodology by destinations, this cannot result in a precise total, although we accept that percentage change would be a good measure of progress.
-No China data, or commentary, on inbound travel.
Hotel business updates
5 June 2024
[] Our summary of a Costar* group report on Accor (together CA):
-Forecasts hotel demand will grow +3.7% annually over the next 20 years, but supply will grow 1.5-2%. Note 1. Rounded by CA, which devalues forecast as 1.5% is 2% if also rounded.
-10 years ago, 86% of its hotels were in Europe; now 45%.
-Has 650 hotels in the 10 cities in which the Summer Olympic Games are scheduled Jul 26-Aug 11. Note 2. Even though France’s winning bid was to stage the Games in Paris, it is planning events in other cities, and even in some of its colonies – such as Tahiti.
-Current booked occupancy for those hotels is 71%. Forecasts will be 85%. Note 3. 1, Average room rate forecast not given; according to our BEB* theory, both could be below normal results for those periods. 2, Not clear if forecast for the main games only or also The Paralympic Games Aug 28-Sep 8, where we calculate occupancies are usually 25% lower.
-Environment. 79% of its hotels have removed single-use plastics, against an 80% target; 60% of hotels are measuring carbon emissions, 85%; 90% (of its top-300 hotels) have defined a baseline value for food waste, 80%. Note 4. We do not know CA’s definition for ‘top-300’ hotels.
-Responding to comment that its share price was ‘sluggish’ (report, dated 3rd, CA put previous week ended at US$43, which we have converted at US$1 to €0.94), noted that ‘since covid, its price has grown from US$23 to US$45 +90%, its highest. Note 5. Our database shows the company’s end-May stock price was US$42 +15% YTD, -4% compared with pre-covid end-2019, and its stockmarket +6% +34%.
-Its CEO was paid US$1.99mn in 2023. Note 6. CA report that this was 139% of his ‘total possible earnings’ and then adds that 150% is the ‘highest level attainable’. To us, these amplifications make no mathematical sense, in that a figure cannot go above 100% of what is possible.
*Notes:
-One of the Costar outlets – Costar, HNN, STR.
-Costar provides information, analytics, and marketing on real estate, including the hotel business. It bought STR (Smith Travel Research) in 2019 for US$450mn. Another member of the group is HNN, Hotel News Now.
-BEB, Big Event Blues, is our semi-serious theory suggesting that momentous international events actually reduce visitor arrival totals. Although these events attract international visitors, many traditional travellers (such as business travellers and even holidaymakers) will stay away from that destination just before, during, and just after the event. They assume that there will be too much disruption to normal movement in the destination. In general, they are right; and not only is movement curtailed, but many prices are higher.
-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.
[] STR* and TE* lower forecast* for US hotels:
-For this year, occupancy to fall, average room rate lowered 1.0pts.
-For 2025, occupancy unchanged, ARR -0.8pts.
*Notes:
-STR=US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.
-TE=Tourism Economics, US-based. Part of Oxford Economics, UK-based, and not related to Oxford University.
-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). Generally, we report on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.
-As shown, few numbers given.
IATA reports
4 June 2024
[] IATA* forecasts for this year:
-Seat sales 4.96bn. Note 1. Change not given.
-RPKs +11.6%. Note 2. Number not given.
-Asia Pacific ASKs +14.1%, RPKs +17.1%. Europe +11.5% +11.1%. North America +8.1% +7.0%. Note 2.
-Revenue US$996bn +9.7%. Passenger revenue US$744bn +15.2%.
-Operating profits US$59.9bn, which we calculate would be +14.8%.
[] IATA* forecasts:
-1.9bn +300% litres of SAF* will be produced this year.
-That would represent 0.53% of aviation fuel needed.
-That would represent 65% of requirement to reach zero CO2 emissions by 2050.
-Forecasts 63.8mn litres will be produced by 2030.
-To achieve a 5% CO2 reduction for international aviation from SAF by 2030, 27% of renewable fuel production in 2030 would need to be SAF; currently, SAF share is 3%.
[] IATA* reports that blocked airline money was US$1.8bn in April, -28% compared with end-2023.
At its peak, June 2023, Nigeria’s blocked money was US$850mn; by April, 98% had been cleared. However, the refunds were made in Nigeria’s devalued currency, causing big losses to airlines. IATA does not give figure; we estimate 40%.
In April 2023, blocked money was US$2.27bn +47%. Worst five countries, with 68.0% share, were Nigeria US$812mn, Bangladesh US$214mn, Algeria US$196mn, Pakistan US$188mn, Lebanon US$141mn.
This year, eight country groups are responsible for 87% of blocked money. Pakistan US$411mn held for 40 months; Bangladesh 320 40; Algeria 286 37; XAF* 151 50; Ethiopia 149 58; Lebanon 129 52; Eritrea 75 116; Zimbabwe 69 84.
*Notes:
-IATA=International Air Transport Association. Switzerland-based airlines’ trade body.
-SAF=sustainable aviation fuel. A generic term covering all fuels that are not derived from fossil fuels.
-XAF is the currency code for the six countries that use the Central African Franc – Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon.
TBA Tracking: May travel stocks’ ups and downs.
3 June 2024
Commentary (category/sector/index numbers below):
-Our YTD calculation for all stocks and categories is our ‘default’ commentary in this section, unless noted otherwise. At end of last month +4%.
-The ‘Big Picture’ in a word or two – covid conquered!
-Back to pre-covid 2019 level! Well, still -0.1%, but surely there will be full recovery with June prices? That means covid will have caused four-and-a-half years of damage.
-All three categories in the US fall in the month, although only Others fall YTD.
-Another fall for China, now -4% YTD.
-Another poor month for airlines, pushing them into a fractional fall this year.
-What’s happening with NFAs in Europe? Easy -10%, Ryan -8%, although Wizz is +4%.
-The troubled Hainan Air group returns to listing in Hong Kong; it was suspended in 2019 due to late filing of financial results. It reopens -16% on its 2019 price.
-Half of those in our ‘Giants’ category (12 of the world’s biggest travel companies) fell.
-In our ‘FSA’ category, a +1%, but that is better than the -21% fall in our ‘NFA’ category, albeit mainly due to price collapses at Gol and Spirit.
-Our ‘Travel-Tech’ category is -1%; why worse than overall growth?
-In our ‘Fun’ category, falls for three of the biggest – Disney, Ryan, TUI.
Selected category-specifics (compared with previous month):
-Giant airlines, airline groups (FSAs, full-service-airlines). China Southern +4% (Shanghai), Delta +2%, ICAG -2% (London), Lufthansa -4%.
-NFAs (no-frills-airlines). Air Asia +5%, Ryanair -13%, Southwest +3%, Spring China -1%.
-Giant hotel groups. Accor -3%, AirBnB -9%, InterContinental +1%, Jinjiang -3%, Marriott -2%.
-Luxury hotel groups. Mandarin +4%, Shangri-La +0.4%.
-Big travel groups. China United -15%, Flight Centre -11%, GBTG +0.3%, TUI -5% (Frankfurt).
-Las Vegas hotel groups. MGM +2%, Sands +2%.
-Car renters. Avis +19%, Sixt -17%. Hertz, see below.
-Planemakers. Airbus +1%, Boeing +6%, Embraer +8%.
-Big airports, airport groups. ADP +10%, Corporacion America APs +8%, Fraport +11%, Guangzhou -2%.
-Cruisers. Carnival +2%, RCC +6%.
-Travel-tech heavies. AirBnB -9%, Amadeus +9%, Booking +9%, Expedia -16%, Trip +2% (Hong Kong).
-Fun, for fun (ie leisure). Banyan Tree +5%, Norwegian Cruises -12%, Fosun +2%, Hawaiian +8%, Ryanair -13%, Sun Int’l +0.3%, TUI London -5%, Walt Disney -6%, Wynn +4%.
-No-hopers. Hertz -4%, Jet India -7%, Norwegian Air -4%, SAS +46%.
-Big stockmarkets. Frankfurt +3%, Hong Kong +2%, London +2%, Tokyo +0.2%, US (average of our four) +4%.
Numbers – Sectors (compared with previous month):
-Big Picture. (Numbers repeated in different sections below.) All – World +1%, Asia Pacific -1%, Europe +0.1%, US -2%, RoW +8%. World – Airlines -1%, Hotels +2%, Others flat.
-World (travel-related stocks), last month: +1%.Previous month: -2%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -0.1%.
-World, last month: Airlines -1%, Hotels +2%, Others flat.Previous month: Airlines -4%, Hotels -3%, Others -3%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -39%, Hotels +4%, Others -19%.
-Regions, all sectors, last month: Asia Pacific -1%, Europe +0.1%, US -2%, RoW +8%. Previous month: Asia Pacific +1%, Europe -5%, US -8%, RoW +2%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Asia Pacific -23%, Europe -25%, US -6%, RoW +54%.
-Asia Pacific, including China, last month: Airlines +1%, Hotels -1%, Others -6%. Previous month: Airlines +2%, Hotels +3%, Others -3%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -15%, Hotels -14%, Others -38%.
-Asia Pacific, excluding China, last month: Airlines +1%, Hotels +6%, Others -1%. Previous month: Airlines -1%, Hotels +4%, Others +3%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -21%, Hotels -10%, Others -39%.
-China, last month: -3%. Previous month: -1%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -23%.
–China travel stocks (quoted in China, Hong Kong, US), last month: +0.5%. Previous month: +2%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -27%.
-Europe, last month: Airlines -4%, Hotels +0.4%, Others +3%. Previous month: Airlines -4%, Hotels -4%, Others -6%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -57%, Hotels -1%, Others -19%.
-US, last month: Airlines -2%, Hotels +1%, Others -2%. Previous month: Airlines -8%, Hotels -8%, Others -6%. Last month, compared with end-2019: Airlines -41%, Hotels +22%, Others +1%.
-FSAs, last month: -1%. Previous month: -2%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -41%.
-NFAs, last month: +3%. Previous month: -4%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -50%.
-Travel-tech, last month: -3%.Previous month: +0.2%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -6%.
-‘Giants’, last month: -1%. Previous month: -5%. Last month, compared with end-2019: -15%.
-Stockmarkets, last month: +2%. Previous month: +28%. Last month, compared with end-2019: +30%.
Numbers – Indices (compared with previous month):
-TBA Travel Stocks Index, last month: World 238, Asia Pacific 63, Europe 353, US 298. Previous month: World 237, Asia Pacific 60, Europe 365, US 286. End-2019: World 233, Asia Pacific 82, Europe 216, US 399.
-TBA China Travel Stocks Index (quotes from China, Hong Kong, US), last month 78. Previous month 78. End-2019 105.
-NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index, last month 139. Previous month 136. End-2019 170.
Information from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of W.Y.S.K:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst. Our February issues include annual comparisons, as well as 5-year, 10-year, and millennium comparisons.
The Fox.
*Fox – sly. Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning. Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.
Foxtrots 
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