Travel-Industry-Data News, April 8-12.

FOXTROTS*

Travel-Industry-Data News, April 8-12.

Travel business updates

12 April 2024

[] Our summary of PCW* report on China outbound, based on survey in Q1:

-40% plan travel using OTAs and social media sites; named were CTrip, Douyin (China’s [China-owned] TikTok), Qunar, Xiaohongshu (China’s Instagram).

-‘Preference’ for Xiaohongshu for planning among travellers aged 18-29. Note 1. No data given.

-‘Favourite’ for booking for all travellers, CTrip. Note 1.

-Characteristics. 39.5% share of travellers were aged 18-24, 27.4% aged 25- 29, 9% above 40, 62% women. Note 2. 1, no data for ages 30-40. 2, Female share is believe to apply to all travellers. 3, Rounding by PCW.

-Bookings US$90bn in 2022, which we calculate is -48.3% compared with pre-covid 2019. Forecasts US$185bn this year, above US$174bn in 2019. Note 3. 1, No data for 2023. 2, Figures believed to be for all travel, not just outbound

-70% booked travel under one month before travel. Note 4. Change not given.

-Top-3 destinations – Singapore 15%, Thailand 13.6%, Korea 12.4%. Note 5. Rounding by PCW.

-Selected regions – Europe 10.6%, US 4.2%. Note 6. Regions selected by PCW.

*Notes: PCW is Phocuswright, a US-based travel research company specialising in online data, or Phocuswire, a news outlet. The Northstar travel group bought it in 2011 from the late founder Philip C Wolf, after whom it had been named PhoCusWright.

[] Our summary of STR* report on US hotels:

Weekly 7-day periods through:

-6 April occupancy (against comparable week in 2023) 64.1% (+4.7%), average room rate US$156.96 (+2.1%)

-30 March 62.3% (-5.6%) US$157.14 (-0.7%)

-23 March 65.3% (+0.7%) US$162.28 (+2.5%)

End-month 7-day periods:

-February 62.0% (-3.3%) US$156.62 (+0.3%)

-January 56.2% (-0.3%) US$149.76 (+5.1%)

-December 50.1% (-7.1%) US$163.58 (-2.8%)

*Notes:

-STR = US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). We concentrate on occupancy and room rate, as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

Travel business updates

11 April 2024

[] Our summary of report on Greece by its DMO:

-Air arrivals 24.1mn +11.8%. (Bank of Greece reports all arrivals +17.6%.)

-Cruise arrivals in 49 ports. Ship arrivals 5230 +9%, passenger arrivals 7.0mn +51%.

-Domestic air passengers 9.0mn +18.5%.

-Hotel revenue US$11.5bn +22.5%; summer resorts +27%, all-year +9%, categories 4/5-star +24%, 1/3-star +19%. Note 1. Specifics selected by NTO.

-Short-term rentals – generally considered to be outlets such as AirBnB. Capacityunits/beds. Highest, July, 212k/939k +8.7/7.3%. Lowest, January, 171k/780k +13.2/14.5%.

-Bank of Greece reports visitor spend US$22.2bn +15.7% (which we have converted at US$1 to €0.92). Visitors from Germany US$3.87bn +9.5%, UK US$3.60bn +5.8%, France US$1.55bn +11.6%, US US$1.49bn +14.0%. Note 2. Markets selected by NTO; no criteria given.

-Bank of Greece reports average per visitor spend US$655 -2.7%.

[] IAPCO* reports on members’ results in 2023*:

-Economic impact US$15.4bn (which we have converted from €14.2bn), which we calculate was +5.3%. Note 1. Meaning of ‘economic impact’ not given.

-Number of attendees not given; it was 14mn in 2021.

-Members handled 17,044 +4.2% events. In 2021 11,945 – of which association meetings were 60%, corporate 24%, government 4%. Pre-covid* corporate share was 50%.

-IAPCO members +5%. Note 2. Number not given.

-Members’ staff 9248 +9.4%. It was 7163 in 2021.

*Notes:

-IAPCO = International Association of Professional Congress Organisers.

-‘Pre-covid’ assumed to be 2019.

-We have some comparative data for 2021 only. If no comparison given, we make the comparison with that year, or 2019, and annotate this.

-At press time, we had not received an answer to our request for clarifications.

Hotel business updates

10 April 2024

[] Our summary of STR* reports on hotels in March:

–Dublin results affected by Six Nations rugby final and St Patrick’s Day in the month. Occupancy 81.0% +0.2%, average room rate US$178 -5.5% (our calculation; from €164.04).

–Jeddah results affected by F1 car race in the month. 66.3% +2.2%, US$248 +3.2% (R929.94).

–Singapore results affected by six concerts by popular US singer Taylor Swift in the month. 79.1% +5.1%, US$263.90 +12.7% (which we have converted at US$1 to S$1.36). Highest occupancy during concert days 2-4 and 7-9 March; Saturday 2 March 92.7%, Sunday 3 March 92.5%. Note 1. Highest ARR Saturday 2 March US$322.32. Changes not given.

*Notes:

-STR=US-based Smith Travel Research. Despite that name, a hotel-research company.

-STR also reports hotel revpar (revenue per available room). Generally, we report on occupancy and room rate, and as we believe revpar has little marketing value to those not working in the hotel business.

[] Our summary of TDN* report on US hotel guest-spend, taxes, wages, with data from AHLA and OE* (together, TAO):

-Forecast to pay US$83.4bn in tax revenue this year, of which US$54.4bn state and local, US$29.0bn US government. Top-5 states: California 8.78 5.17 3.61; New York 8.30 5.90 2.39; Nevada 8.08 4.40 3.68; Florida 7.43 4.47 2.97; Texas 4.31 2.85 1.46. Note 1. Changes not given.

-Forecast to pay US$123.4bn +4.6% in wages this year, +21.0% compared with pre-covid 2019. Top-5 states: California 15.3 +4.1% +14.3%; Nevada 14.4 +17.4% +23.3%; Florida 11.84 +2.5% +27.0%; New York 10.2 +7.4% +21.4%; Texas 6.5 +1.6% +25.3%.

-Forecast guest spending US$758.6bn +4.9% this year, +23.8% compared with 2019. Top-5 states: California 87.8 +8.9% +32.8%; Florida 70.3 +3.2% +24.3%; New York 65.8 +4.1% +15.3%; Nevada 59.5 +2.2% +25.4%; Texas 52.6 +6.2% +23.6%.

-Forecast jobs in US hotels 2.15mn this year, -9.5% compared with 2019. Top-5 states: California 251k -13.2%; Florida 195k -6.4%; Nevada 195k -6.4%; Texas 140k -6.1%; New York 105k -7.4%. Note 2. Change with 2023 not given.

*Notes:

-AHLA=American Hotel & Lodging Association.

-OE=Oxford Economics, UK-based; not related to Oxford University.

-TDN is Greece-based publication Travel Daily News.

Travel company updates

9 April 2024

[] Our summary of PCW* report on Trip Advisor:

-Blocked 2mn ‘fake’ reviews in 2023. Note 1. 1, Change not given. 2, TA describes ‘fake’ as including misleading or biased posts.

-Reviews 31mn; blocked share 6.3% +50%.

-Banned 80% of those reviews from the site.

-In 2022 4% of its 30mn reviews were fake.

-In 2023, Europe-based businesses were responsible for 33% share of fakes.

[] PCW* reports Southwest Airlines will invest US$1.7bn in technology this year. Note 1. Growth not given.

Travel business updates

8 April 2024

[] Our summary of BTN* report on Virgin Atlantic 2023 results:

-Revenue of US$3.9bn +9.3% (which we have converted at US$1 to £0.79).

-Operating loss US$176mn -32.5%.

-Seat sales 5.3mn, load factor 77%. Note 1. Changes not given.

-Corporate travel 75% of pre-covid 2019 level.

-Forecasts it will be operating +15% more flight sectors by end-year, compared with 2019. Note 2. Number not given.

-Forecasts profits this year. Note 2.

-Forecasts corporate travel this year will be 75-80% of 2019. Note 3. This indicates the airline believes there may be no growth this year.

*Notes: BTN is UK-based publication Business Travel News.

[] Our summary of TDN* report on US hotels during solar eclipse, with data from Site Minder (together, TS):

-Dallas, largest metropolitan area on the path of the eclipse, arrivals at hotels April 7/8 +60.7%. Note 1. 1, As written, means guest arrivals, not occupancy. 2, Believed to mean two nights of 7 and 8, not just 7^th.

-Dallas average room rate +17.8%. Note 2. Figure not given.

-Average room cost US$334 +48.7%. Note 3. Not known if this is published price or received rate.

*Notes: TDN is Greece-based publication Travel Daily News.

The Fox. Remember, I’ll be famous after I’m dead.

*Fox – sly. Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning. Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

Foxtrots