Trump slumpish

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FOXTROTS*

 

Trump slumpish

A fall in visitor arrivals in the US in the first-half would seem to confirm that this is indeed a Trump Slump – in other words, a fall caused primarily by the anti-foreigner actions and statements of the US president, Donald Trump.

 

That said, the fall was less in Q2 than in Q1, thus less for the first half.

 

The overall figures may not look so bad. There were 1.4mn fewer visitors in H1 out of a total of 33.9mn (and 1.0mn fewer from overseas out of 16.4mn). That is only 4% of the total (and 6% of the overseas total).

 

But even if not bad, it is certainly not good either. But perhaps worse is the inability of the US authorities to do anything about correcting the downturn. Because, alongside the anti-foreigner discourse, has been the reluctance to admit that anything might be wrong.

 

Observers are left with the opinion that – if the fall was discussed – more effort would go into either denying that the figures were correct, however absurd that seems, or explaining them with platitudes.

 

But nothing to turn the trend.

 

The following are our observations on the data:

 

-Of the top-2 contiguous sources, Canada has been growing, +5%, and now has a 28% share. Mexico continues to fall and faster, -9%, to a 24% share.

 

-Overseas visitors fell -8% in Q1, -4% Q2, -6% H1 – which is a sizeable fall.

 

-In the top-10 sources, only Korea and France grew in Q1, but in Q2 they were joined by a few – in order of size, UK, Japan, Germany, Australia, Italy. But for H1 there were only those two plus Germany and Italy.

 

-A few fell faster in Q2, of which China was the most significant – -6% compared with -0.5% in Q1. The others were Brazil (-15% -13%) and India (-18% -3%).

 

-Perhaps a big shock is that the top-5 overseas markets hardly fell (-0.1%). They fell -4% in Q1 but grew +4% in Q2. The main cause was Germany, switching from -12% in Q1 to +10% in Q2, for +0.3% in H1.

 

-The other big growth, in both Qs was from Korea. In fact, the US almost exactly maintained a fair market share of the Korea outbound market. In Q1 arrivals in the US were +16% compared with the +17% for all outbound travel from Korea. And in H1 +18% +19%.

 

-In conclusion, all nine regions into which the US breaks its arrivals fell in H1. Disregarding their size for a moment, little surprise was that the Middle East (the main target of Trump’s ‘travel ban’) fell the most – -30% in H1, and Africa, the 2nd-target next, with -27%. Lowest fall was Asia Pacific with -1%. But even the Caribbean, almost the closest but possibly less affected in the anti-foreigner positioning of Trump, also fell heavily, by -15%.

 

The Fox

Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

 

* Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

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What’s working, what’s not – airlines in Europe and Asia Pacific

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Double WYSKs:

What’s working, what’s not – airlines in Europe and Asia Pacific

WYSK = What You Should Know

 

Airlines in Europe

Our summary of traffic results for the leading airlines in Europe, excerpts from the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, over January-September. Seat sales (RPKs for British; our estimates for Ryan): Air France+Hop +3%; British +1%; Easyjet +10%; Lufthansa +5%; Ryanair +12%.

 

Notes (on notable details; on whole-group for Air France, British (=ICAG), Lufthansa):

-Air France. KLM growing at twice AF’s rate. Transavia seat factor still good, around 90%, but beware – growth slowing.

 

-British (=ICAG). The engine for growth has been Iberia, but will the Catalan crisis threaten this, although IB is growing 4x as fast as BA?! AerLingus still good growth albeit slowing. But the weakness seems to be Vueling, once the group’s star. Only +1% in the month and +2% YTD. V’s slowdown started before the Catalan crisis so cannot all be blamed on that – although it will be, of course.

 

-Easyjet looks good all round.

 

-Lufthansa. Small seems to be beautiful; growth smallest at the biggest (of the group’s five sizeable airlines), and biggest at the smallest – if you can follow that. The group’s Americas routes are falling; these are combined and so we do not know if the problem is North, South, or both.

 

-Ryanair. Don’t say anything, but growth is slowing, albeit still a super level for such a big airline. Some must be related to the airline’s flight cancellations. Seat factor at near-unbelievable levels, 97%. We suspect management is somehow also including bookings on cancelled flights, and rebookings to other flights.

 

 

 

Airlines in Asia Pacific

Our summary of traffic results for the leading airlines in Asia Pacific, excerpts from the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, over January-September. Seat sales at biggest FSAs (full-service-airlines) in Asia Pacific (whole-group results for all): Air China +4%; Cathay flat; China Eastern +8%; China Southern +10%; Japan (estimate) +2%; Singapore +2%.

 

Notes (on notable details):

-Air China. Fall on international routes; what’s happening?

 

-Cathay. Is ‘flat’ good news – because it is not a fall?

 

-China Eastern. International (including Hong Kong) growing twice the rate of domestic.

 

-China Southern. Same as CE.

 

-Japan. No comment.

 

-Singapore. Some results look right, but: Scoot/Tiger seat factor too low at 85%; Silk’s a disaster at 73%. Will traffic growth – a good +7% for SAG – pull the group out of trouble?

 

The Fox

Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

 

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

 

Double WYSKs: What’s working, what’s not – airlines in Europe; Travel Stocks’ ups and downs.

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FOXTROTS*

 

Double WYSKs:

What’s working, what’s not – airlines in Europe;

Travel Stocks’ ups and downs.

WYSK = What You Should Know.

 

 

What’s working; what’s not. Airlines in Europe

January-August seat sales (RPKs for British; our estimates for Ryan): Air France+Hop +3%; British +1%; Easyjet +9%; Lufthansa +5%; Ryanair +10%.

 

Notes (on notable details; on whole-group for Air France, British, Lufthansa):

 

Air France group starting to look good. But contrary to some news reports, the group’s stock price is the 2nd-worst performer in our TBA-100 Airline Index.

 

British. The problem is now Spain. The group has two airlines based in Barcelona – Level (sic) and Vueling – plus Iberia in Madrid. They will surely be hurt by Catalonia government’s attempted political coup d’etat.

 

Easyjet starting to produce solid monthly gains around 10%. But when will the Brexit shadow fall? (Despite what the airline says, it can only partly solve the problem by creating an EU-based airline, which would have to be majority-EU-owned.)

 

Lufthansa roars ahead thanks to its Eurowing subsidiary, and its newest group member, Brussels (although that growth is mainly a rebound from terrorist-caused falls in 2016).

 

Ryanair growth is slowing but should still become world’s largest no-frills-airline with next month’s counts, overtaking Southwest. Still producing awesome seat factors (remember though, that this includes passenger no-shows).

 

 

 

Travel Stocks’ ups and downs

Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in October. Airlines: biggest growth, Turkish +19%; biggest fall, Alaska -13%. Hotels: Millennium & Copthorne +34%, Banyan -7%. Tech: Amadeus +6%, Trivago -33% sic. Others: HNA +25%, Walt Disney -1%.

 

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, SAS +33%; biggest fall, Jet AW -17%. Hotels: Jinjiang +31%, Millennium & Copthorne -4%. Tech: Amadeus +6%, Trivago -30% sic. Others: Airbus +14%, Star Cruises -9%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 236, AsPac 114, Eur 199, US 394. Index previous month: World 229, AsPac 108, Eur 188, US 391.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 124; previous month 130.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Tokyo +8%; biggest fall Kuala Lumpur -0.4%. Previous month: Frankfurt +6%; Istanbul -7%.

 

Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

 

 

 

The Fox

Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

 

 

*FOXTROTS

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Airline results in Asia Pacific and Europe

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FOXTROTS

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Airline results in Asia Pacific and Europe

Asia Pacific

January-July seat sales at biggest FSAs (full-service-airlines) in Asia Pacific (whole-group results for all): Air China +4%; Cathay flat; China Eastern +9%; China Southern +11%; Japan +4%; Singapore +2%.

 

Notes (on notable details):

 

-Air China shock (fall in international seat sales).

 

-Cathay group still not doing well (is Dragon or Pacific the problem, or both?).

 

-China Eastern shock #2 (fall in international seat sales in month but still manages +1% YTD).

 

-China Southern no shock (international +9% in month and +7% YTD).

 

-Japan (-2% in international seat sales in month but still +2% YTD).

 

-Singapore, as we noted before, its businessplan (which partly follows what we proposed) may be working – group +6%, even though its SIA is +2%. Even its Silk Air (which we still think must be changed into a low-cost-airline following our criteria) is +12%.

 

 

 

Europe

January-July seat sales at biggest airlines (RPKs for British; our estimates for Ryan): Air France+Hop +3%; British +1%; Easyjet +10%; Lufthansa +5%; Ryanair +12%.

 

Notes (on notable details; on whole-group for Air France, British, Lufthansa):

 

-Air France itself growing well (+3%), but its one-time fast-mover Transavia slipping badly to +3% for the month, although still +16% YTD. Note KLM is now two-thirds the size of AF.

 

-British at only +1% compared with +4% at Iberia. And what is happening with its two NFAs – AerLingus and Vueling? AL slowing but still +13%, but V falls in the month, and just +4% YTD. Is ICAG trying to expand V too far and wide?

 

-Easyjet (only) +9% for the month, but not much space to grow in the summer peak? YTD still +10% and its seat factor 96.7%; is this a record? (See Ryan.)

 

-Lufthansa. All its parts doing well – at least +5%. Both Brussels and Eurowings above +20%, although Brussels’ counts are still a rebound from a terrorism-related fall in 2016.

 

-Ryanair still admirably-strong +12%. Even its flight cuts may not take more than 2pts from that growth. Despite its bluff, Ryan now publishes less information than almost all other airlines. Only one decimal point for seat sales – say 12.6mn. And a rounded figure for seat factor; so its ‘97%’ can be between 96.5% and 97.4%. And so we don’t know if Easy’s 96.7% betters Ryan’s 97%.

 

 

 

The Fox

Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

 

Asia Pacific inbound, outbound

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FOXTROTS

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Asia Pacific inbound, outbound

Inbound

Our calculation of AsPac visitor arrivals for latest-month April, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +9.3%; previous month +5.3%.

 

Of the bigger destinations:

 

-Japan looking fair after fears that the China market would fall. Presumably gaining some traffic otherwise bound for Korea…

 

-…trouble in Korea – presumably because of fears concerning North Korea and US mutual armageddon threats.

 

-Thailand growth weak.

 

 

 

Outbound

Our calculation of AsPac resident departures for latest-month April, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +7.9%; previous month +6.9%.

 

Of the bigger markets:

 

-Doing well – Hong Kong, Korea.

 

-Weak – Singapore.

 

 

The Fox

Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

Travel stocks in August

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FOXTROTS

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Travel stocks in August

Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in August.

Airlines: biggest growth, Lufthansa +16%; biggest fall, Alaska -12%.

Hotels: Banyan +12%, Dusit -16%.

Tech: Travelpoint +6%, cTrip -14%.

Others: Hertz +59% sic, Disney -8%.

 

Previous month:

Airlines: biggest growth, Turkish +10%; biggest fall, Norwegian -28%.

Hotels: Dusit +22%, Jinjiang -8%.

Tech: cTrip +11%, Trivago -10%.

Others: Boeing +23%, HNA -14%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 226, AsPac 109, Eur 183, US 386. Index previous month: World 232, AsPac 108, Eur 185, US 402.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 146; previous month 145.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Bangkok +3%; biggest fall India -2%. Previous month: Istanbul +7%; Stockholm -3%.

 

Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

 

 

The Fox

Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

Double WYSKs: Trump Slump, Airlines in Europe

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FOXTROTS

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Double WYSKs: Trump Slump, Airlines in Europe

WYSK = What You Should Know.

 

Trump Slump

Q1 US visitor data – just released – shows a shocking and worsening fall in visitation.

 

Q1 total was down -4% but that follows worsening totals – +2% in January, but then -6% February, -8% March.

 

That total includes the contiguous markets and Canada and Mexico. Perhaps as expected, Mexico fell by 7% (Canada actually grew).

 

However, if this is disenchantment with the general anti-foreigner (and more) comments from the new US president, Donald Trump, other markets fell further – -8% in Q1.

 

A stunning 16 of the top-20 markets fell – growth for Canada, Korea, France (recovery from special fall year earlier), with Italy flat.

 

The biggest fall in the top-10 overseas markets was the UK (No2) – supposedly the politically closest to President Trump. It fell -16%.

 

China may still be growing enough as an immature market for the US to hold. There was a 17% growth in January – but that was the high-travel Lunar New Year month. February fell -23% but that was because LNY was in that month in 2016. And March was -2%.

 

The leading overseas market, Japan, was down only -2%, although it was falling faster in March.

 

Although these percentage falls seem bad, the actual numerical fall – visitor numbers – is not so great, and may recover this year. The total fall was 700,000 visitors, and 620,000 fewer from overseas; the fall from Mexico was just under 300,000 visitors.

 

 

 

 

Airlines in Europe

January-June seat sales (RPKs for British; our estimates for Ryan): Air France+Hop +2%; British +2%; Easyjet +10%; Lufthansa +5%; Ryanair +12%.

 

Notes (on notable details; on whole-group for Air France, British, Lufthansa):

-Air France, its Transavia growing at 20% but still only 11% the size of Europe’s biggest, Ryanair.

 

-British is still the sluggish one in the ICAG group.

 

-Easyjet, and growing faster than YTD, but has some operational/scheduling faults. Needs to fix.

 

-Lufthansa, looking good. Its Brussels growing at +25%, Eurowings at +24%.

 

-Ryanair, holding that growth, and still managing 94% seat factor.

 

 

The Fox

Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

 

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