FOXTROTS*

 

 

If outbound travellers became domestic travellers

 

Caveat:

-We have mixed ES data with WTO’s for some calculations. This is a risk, as criteria may not be the same.

 

 

We have seen some data from the OECD and Bernstein on if domestic travel was converted to domestic.

 

(Bernstein is a respected US-based research company, but which nevertheless would not help us with our research by explaining how it made its calculations on OECD data.)

 

Some countries are beginning to open up to domestic travel, and a return to ‘normal’ international travel still looks at least one year away. Even if some international ‘bubbles’ are introduced, such as a mooted one between Australia and New Zealand, travel numbers will not become ‘normal’, also probably for a year.

 

Bernstein’s base was spending; ours is travel/trip numbers.

 

Using Eurostat data (for 2018, the latest available), we have arbitrarily assumed that only 40% of outbound travellers would switch to domestic over one year. After all, we cannot imagine travellers from France normally heading for the Canaries in January will switch to, say, Lille instead.

 

We have selected 12 markets in Europe. We believe these are the most significant markets, and they are also almost the 12 largest.

 

We have not considered domestic-visitor capacity in our statistical processing. But we think this might be a problem only in Switzerland, where our 40%-switch would represent 92% of the current domestic market. (Surely, hopefully, that would not resuscitate complaints about ‘overtourism’?)

 

The percentages are higher for Belgium, but we are sure our 40%-switch would not be achieved there.

 

 

Commentary:

-Germany is the clear leader in relation to its normal inbound visitor traffic. Our findings indicate that if only 40% of outbound travellers switched to domestic over one year, that would represent more than double its normal inbound traffic!

 

-Three other markets would do well – by which we mean covering at least 50% of their inbound travel. They are Belgium 57%, Switzerland 52%, UK 67%. Unfortunately, we believe that our arbitrary 40%-switch would be lower for Belgium – not enough attractive/different places to go. And possibly for Switzerland; plenty of attractive domestic destinations, but could Swiss residents afford to holiday there?

 

-Losing out badly would be the big-volume summer-sun-heavy destinations – such as Greece 1% (based on 40% of its outbound as a share of its inbound), Italy 9%, Spain 5%. But that is a statistical observation. With so much capacity – those big high-rise hotels one step from the beach, certainly in Spain – surely a combination of price cuts, convenience, attraction, might entice more than our arbitrary 40%?

 

-France is another destination that probably does not fit our standard 40%. Our 12%-switch calculation does not take into account the numerous attractions of France – at least in the lower half of the country. Not just Beaujolais-country, Lyon, Monaco (ok, we know it is not France), Nice, Toulouse, but spectacular scenery and delightful countryside through the lower half – including the Alps. Surely that would bump up our 40% to at least 50%?

 

 

If outbound travel from selected markets in Europe switched to domestic

Market Share*,%
  Of inbound Of domestic
Austria 15.4 38.0
Belgium 57.5 138.1
Denmark 21.8 23.3
France 11.8 6.3
Germany 111.7 27.2
Greece 1.2 6.1
Italy 9.3 10.6
Netherlands 43.9 35.3
Poland 26.0 10.7
Spain 7.9 4.7
Switzerland 52.2 91.8
UK 67.1 19.5

Notes:

-TBA manipulation on ES counts on outbound and domestic travel, and on WTO counts on inbound travel.

-*If 40% of outbound travellers switched to travel domestically, that would represent xx% of the annual inbound-visitor or domestic-traveller count.

-┼ES has also given an implausible, but unexplained, figure that would near double the shares shown.

-╪Based on 2013 data; even before it decided in 2016 to leave the European Union, the UK cooperated poorly with EU institutions.

-See editorial for other amplifications/caveats.

Source: ES=Eurostat, TBA=Travel Business Analyst, WTO=World Tourism Organization.

 

An excerpt from our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.