FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data News, September 23-27.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Travel business updates

27 September 2019

[] Research & Markets* (RM), a company, forecasts that China’s MICE ‘market’ will be US$31bn ‘by 2026’. No growth given.

Among our questions:

-‘Market’ indicates outbound, but RM commentary indicates inbound.

-RM reports ‘escalating’ growth. Growth is always growing, although RM may be one that uses the tautology ‘negative growth’ to disguise a fall.

-We assume ‘by 2026’ means in 2025.

*Notes: We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary. At press time, RM had not answered our request for clarifications.

[] Dubai airport reports an even bigger fall in passengers handled in the latest reported quarter – Q2, -9.3% (The company reports -9.2% but the figures it gives calculate differently.) As a result, H1 was -5.6%.

Dubai stopped reporting monthly starting this year. Perhaps because there were monthly falls in 2018 in seven of the 12 months.

[] Germany has now reported its 2018 outbound-travel total to Eurostat (see our report on September 25). It was 108.5mn, which we calculate was a strong +17% growth – an additional 16mn travellers.

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports:

-On Middle East hotels in August occupancy -0.6% to 63.1%, average room rate -6.8% to US$158.79.

-On US hotels 15-21 September: occupancy +2.1% to 71.3%, average room rate +4.8% to US$134.70.

 

Europe’s domestic travel

26 September 2019

Eurostat (ES) has released domestic-travel data* for some markets in the EU (European Union) for 2018. As these are from official figures from each market, they are not always comparable one to the other.

We compare 2018 data with our database for 2017 to calculate progress.

Unfortunately, the domestic market that is probably the EU’s 4th biggest, the UK (after France, Germany, Spain), has been uncooperative with ES – even before its decision to leave the EU. Latest data for the UK is from 2013.

Commentary on data already filed (growth calculations are ours):

-ES shows that France’s total fell -13%. We assume this is wrong, and that there has been a change in definitions.

-Because of that reported fall in France, there is a fall in the total markets already filed of -1.9%. Germany is a big enough market that its results will likely turn that into a small growth. We calculate Germany’s growth in 2018 was +4-5%.

-Exclude France, and the total for the 18 grew +5.3%.

-Largest market reported so far is France; that reported -13.2% represents 26mn fewer travellers.

-Other noteworthy changes of the bigger markets (above 50mn): Italy grew +20%. Spain, the EU’s 3rd-largest, grew only +1%.

*Notes:

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

-At press time, ES had not answered our request for clarifications.

 

Europe’s outbound travel

25 September 2019

Eurostat (ES) has released outbound-travel data* for some markets in the EU (European Union) for 2018. As these are from official figures from the market, they are not always comparable one to the other. And they do not always identify special cases – such as heavy work related border crossings.

To date, 19 of the 31 markets have reported their 2018 data to ES. We calculate that this represents 45% of the total. The big market missing is Germany, which alone has an 30% share of the total. Germany should report within the next month.

Commentary on data already filed (growth calculations are ours):

-Growth on those markets already filed is +5.8%. Germany is a big enough market that its results could change that total growth. We calculate Germany’s growth in 2018 was +0-2%.

-Largest market reported so far is France; its -7.4% represents 2mn fewer travellers.

-Of the others, falls were recorded only for France and Norway -0.9%.

-Other noteworthy changes of the bigger markets (above 10mn): Italy grew +26%, Netherlands with 20.9mn is on track to become larger than France, 26.3mn, in 2020. Spain grew +15%.

-Among medium markets (5-10mn): Czech R +9%.

-Among smaller markets (under 5mn): Estonia +61.7%, Bulgaria +23.9%.

*Notes: A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

Travel business updates

24 September 2019

[] PATA (Pacific Asia Travel Association, a regional promotional body) forecasts visitor arrivals in Asia Pacific from China will grow from 128mn in 2018 to 173mn in 2022.

That would be an AAGR (annual average growth rate) of +7.8%. However, PATA is not clear whether this is actually a forecast for 2023 (a 5-year period), where AAGR would be +6.2%.

For Russia it forecasts 12mn in 2022 (or 2023), but does not give growth.

[] The Skyscanner (SS) OTA and search-engine has passed the 100mn monthly unique visitors.

Other data from SS – no growths given:

-Sold air tickets worth US$24bn (at US$1 to €0.90) in 2018.

-Passenger-count given as 172mn. Although SS compares this with airline seat sales, the comparison may not be correct. A passenger on an airline flying, say, Frankfurt-Dubai-Singapore with the same return would be counted as four ‘passengers’ (we use the clearer-term ‘seats-sold’). SS probably would count that as one passenger.

-Google puts SS bigger than others such as Expedia and Kayak do.

(SS was bought by China’s cTrip in 2016.)

 

Travel business updates

23 September 2019

[] ARC (the Airlines Reporting Corporation, handling financial settlements between US-based travel agencies and airlines), reports for August (any rounding by ARC): air tickets sold US$7.9bn +1.6%; average US roundtrip ticket US$483 -1%; passenger trips 24.8mn -1% (domestic – -0.6%, international -0.3%); EMD (electronic miscellaneous document) sales US$6.8mn +6.2%; EMD transactions +5.2%.

[] Luxembourg-based Corporacion America Airports, which operates 52 airports mainly in Latin America (in Europe in Armenia and Italy), reports passengers-handled in August at 7.54mn +1.6%, YTD 55.7mn +3.2%.

[] Research & Markets* (RM), a company, forecasts mobile travel bookings in Asia Pacific will reach US$1732.1bn in 2025, a +11.9% annual average growth rate over 2018-25.

*Notes: We have run many critical reviews on RM reports, and we advise users to treat its findings with caution – apparently mostly due to imprecision in its editorial commentary.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.