FOXTROTS*

 

Europe’s outbound travel

Eurostat (ES) has released outbound-travel data for some markets in the EU (European Union) for 2018. As these are from official figures from the market, they are not always comparable one to the other. And they do not always identify special cases – such as heavy work related border crossings.

 

(Results on domestic travel due to be reported in the next week.)

 

We compare 2018 data with our database for 2017 data to give a comparison.

 

Unfortunately, the market that is probably the EU’s biggest, the UK, has been uncooperative with ES – even before its decision to leave the EU. Latest data for the UK is from 2013.

 

To date, 19 of the 31 markets have reported their 2018 data to ES. We calculate that this represents 45% of the total. The big market missing is Germany, which alone has an 30% share of the total. Germany should report within the next month.

 

Commentary on data already filed (growth calculations are ours):

 

-Growth on those markets already filed is +5.8%. Germany is a big enough market that its results could change that total growth. We calculate Germany’s growth in 2018 was +0-2%.

 

-Largest market reported so far is France; its -7.4% represents 2mn fewer travellers.

 

-Of the others, falls were recorded only for France and Norway -0.9%.

 

-Other noteworthy changes of the bigger markets (above 10mn): Italy grew +26%, Netherlands with 20.9mn is on track to become larger than France, 26.3mn, in 2020. Spain grew +15%.

 

-Among medium markets (5-10mn): Czech R +9%.

 

-Among smaller markets (under 5mn): Estonia +61.7%, Bulgaria +23.9%.

 

A full report on this topic in our WYSK:What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.