FOXTROTS*

 

Travel Industry Data Updates, April 22-26.

From http://www.travelbusinessanalyst.com

 

Travel business updates

26 April 2019

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports:

-On Middle East hotels Q1 occupancy +0.9% to 71.0%, average room rate -8.8% to US$148.43.

-On US hotels 14-20 April occupancy -6.2% to 65.7%, average room rate -1.9% to US$128.79.

[] PCW (Phocuswright) report on Europe’s three largest markets:

-Germany 43mn outbound travellers, 61% of adults.

-UK 33mn 60%.

-France 32mn 59%.

 

Our outlook for travel

25 April 2019

The following is extracted from our input for an external report.

[] Assessment of travel business in the past four months compared to what we would expect for that period:

Equal.

Our outlook for this period was not positive, and this has been the outcome. There seem to be more negative (or uncertain, which is almost the same) factors than positive ones. And this seems to be slowing growth in travel, and in some cases, slowing.

  Overall growth, according to WTO data, seems to be continuing as normal. But are there factors that require additional analysis (such as shorter trips, which may show up as bigger spend, because per-day spend is higher for shorter trips than for longer ones)?

[] Assessment of travel business in the next four months compared to what we would expect for that period:

Equal.

Same reasoning. Outlook has not been positive, and this seems unlikely to change in the next 12 months. Again, there are too many negative factors, and too many circumstances that may get worse.

  If only one or two negatives, that would not be a problem, but if there are more (we could count 10), there is a mathematical chance that at least one will ‘explode’.

 

Travel Canada-US

24 April 2019

Global Data forecasts travel from Canada to the US will fall from 23.3mn in 2013 to 14.9mn in 2022, falling at a -4.8% AAGR (annual average growth rate).

Other GD data:

-Visitor numbers fell from 23.3mn to 18.9mn over 2013-18, a -4.1% AAGR.

-33% of Canada (residents? GD reports ‘Canadians’) have no holiday plans.

-23% take city breaks.

We report on US official data:

-US data and forecasts on arrivals from Canada – 21.1mn +4% in 2018, 22.3mn +2% 2020, 23.7mn +3% 2022.

-That would represent +3.2% 2017-22.

 

Hotel business updates

23 April 2019

[] STR (nee Smith Travel Research) reports:

-On US hotels Q1 occupancy +0.4% to 61.8%, average room rate +1.1% to US$129.02.

-On US hotels March occupancy flat at 68.4%, average room rate +0.6% to US$132.66.

 

Russia outbound travel +6%

22 April 2019

Russian nationals made 44mn +6.1% outbound trips in 2018, according to Romir (with some government, some survey, and data).

Apart from border destinations (no data), top-5, were Turkey 5.72mn +26%, Germany 1.30mn +5%, Thailand 1.17mn +7%, Italy 1.09mn +22%, Spain 0.96mn +3%.

Top-5 leisure destinations were Turkey 4.50mn, Thailand 852,000, Italy 805,000, Spain 780,000, and UAE 749,000. Growth not given.

Other findings:

-Nine of top-10 destinations are known (at least in part) for their beach/seaside attractions.

-Of leading leisure destinations, 88% visit Tunisia for leisure reasons; Montenegro 82%; Greece 80%; Bulgaria 79%; UAE 78%.

-No visa required (considered an important factor) for Korea, Montenegro, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, UAE, Vietnam.

-Seaside/water destinations mostly attract youth aged 18-24, the most active travel sector of the market. 53% are interested in such destinations.

-Of those above-60 years, 10% will visit seaside/water destinations.

For this year:

-36% will visit a destination for its beach (or other waters) attractions – plus 16% ‘may’ go, 48% ‘will not’ go.

-17% (18, 65) to a cultural destination to visit sites such as museums, monuments etc. People aged 35-44 are more interested in this, 23%.

-16% (14 70) to an ecotourism destination (including hiking, fishing, rafting). Men chose this 22% compared with 11% for women.

-14% will visit a health resort – most popular among those above-60 years and those with high income (not defined).

-8% (10 82) to ski resorts; 15% of those aged 18-24.

*Notes:

-More in Romir’s Russian Tourism Market Report.

-A full report on this topic in our WYSK: What-You-Should-Know monthly-report contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.

 

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.