FOXTROTS*

 

TBA Tracking: February travel stocks’ ups and downs

Travel stock prices (US, Asia Pacific, Europe) in February. Airlines: biggest growth, China Southern +15%; biggest fall, Norwegian -53% (sic). Hotels: Shangri-La +10%, MGM -10%. Tech: eDreams +9%, Booking -11%. Others: Avis +35%, TUI -32%.

 

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Southwest +24%; biggest fall, Norwegian -28%. Hotels: Wynn +32%, Shangri-La -12%. Tech: cTrip +25%, Trivago -2%. Others: Boeing +27%, Thomas Cook -5%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 224, Asia Pacific 98, Europe 194, US 380. Index previous month: World 227, Asia Pacific 98, Europe 194, US 388.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 124; previous month 125.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Shanghai +12%; biggest fall, India -2%. Previous month: biggest growth Istanbul +12%; biggest fall Kuala Lumpur -0.1%.

 

Comments:

-That shocking fall for Norwegian follows a -28% fall in January. It is now 67% below its end-2017 price. Technically, this fall is making it a cheaper buy for an investor. But would an investor be interested if it seems clear the airline’s business-model is not working?

 

-Although TUI fell most among Others, Malaysia’s Genting (quoted in Hong Kong) was not far behind, -26%. In fact, a fall for this leisure (include gambling) group, is unusual.

-Also rare to fall is Booking (née Priceline).

 

-One to watch is ICAG. Although down ‘only’ 10%, is this Brexit related? With three of its airlines based in the EU, it has British based in soon-to-be non-EU UK. For long ICAG has been saying that there would be no problem. Now, although it is still in partial denial, it is clear that some things will change. All options/changes are worse – if it deems current conditions are good.

 

-Shangri-La fastest hotel stock this month, but last it fell furthest!

 

Info from Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s editions of WYSK: What-You-Should-Know, published by Travel Business Analyst.

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

 

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.