FOXTROTS*

 

November travel stocks’ ups and downs

Travel stock prices (US, Asia Pacific, Europe) in November:

Airlines: biggest growth, China Southern +26%; biggest fall, Easyjet -7%. Hotels: Wyndham +16%, NH Hoteles -16%. Tech: Travelport +2%, cTrip -13%. Others: HNA +37%, Thomas Cook -33%.

 

Previous month:

Airlines: biggest growth, United +0.0% (flat); biggest fall, Turkish -26%. Hotels: Peninsula -2% sic, Wynn -21%. Tech: LastMinute +17%, Travelport -11%. Others: EuroTunnel +1%, HNA -34% sic.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 222, Asia Pacific 98, Europe 184, US 384. Index previous month: World 218, Asia Pacific 88, Europe 191, US 375.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 126; previous month 135.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Hong Kong +6%; biggest fall Dublin -4%. Previous month: smallest fall Zurich -1%; biggest fall Korea -13%.

 

Comments:

-These good-growth figures must be read against the big fall the previous month. Only 5 (out of 23 stocks) are above their price before that fall (ie, end-September) in Europe, 10/27 Asia Pacific, 5/28 US, 3/8 tech.

 

-Top airline was actually India’s Jet with +38%, but this is boosted by an expected sale of the airline.

 

-China’s airlines are usually closely matched in stock movements. But this month, although just behind China Southern was Air China with +20%, China Eastern was only +12%.

 

-In Asia Pacific, three hotel groups were still falling. All airlines grew, except the Singapore Airlines group, flat. HNA had the fastest growth (but fell most in October), although it is still half its end-2017 price. Investors do not seem to have confidence in HNA’s supposed reorganisation.

 

-In Europe, we were impressed to see Lufthansa’s stock grow +22%. So often, traffic performance and stock prices seem out of sync. This time, the stock growth better matches traffic growth, around +11%.

 

-But for the rest in the region, some surprising results. Both no-frills-airlines, Easy and Ryan, fell – and all other airlines grew. (Norwegian, hard to categorise, was flat.) Four of our five hotels continued to fall. And 7 of the 8 ‘Others’ fell.

 

-In the US, only two stocks continued to fall – although these were big companies, Boeing (to be hit by US-led trade wars?) and Marriott.

 

-Travel-tech stocks were another surprise – six of the eight still falling. Only Booking/Priceline and Travelport grew.

 

Info from the Travel Business Analyst newsletters. Details in next month’s newsletters.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.