FOXTROTS*

 

What’s working; what’s not. Airlines in Europe

Our summary of traffic results for the leading airlines (not, where relevant, airline groups) in Europe, excerpts from the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, over January-July.

 

Seat sales (RPKs for British; our estimates for Ryan), in alphabetical order: Air France (from February this year available only combined with KLM, but we have now obtained separated data) -0.2%; British +4%; Easyjet +4%; Lufthansa +7%; Ryanair +6%.

 

Notes (on notable details; on whole-group for Air France (=AFKL), British (=ICAG), Lufthansa (=LHG):

 

-AFKL +3%. AF’s fractional-fall compares with KLM’s +5%. Transavia’s +6% not good for an almost-NFA (no-frills-airline) but it was only +3% for the month. We presume AF’s strike-prone staff also affected this subsidiary, although its capacity grew +5%.

 

Joon? AFKL is still hiding data. We add the separate parts without Joon and they match (what AFKL reports as) the total with Joon – so something is clearly wrong.

 

 

-ICAG +8%. Going good is Iberia (our estimate) +12%, AerLingus (our estimate) +14%, Vueling (our estimate) +11%. If BA was not so sluggish, ICAG’s growth would be matching LHG’s.

 

-Easyjet. If we describe BA’s + 4% growth as ‘sluggish’, that is worse for an NFA. As both are UK airlines, is this partly related to the Brexit economic slowdown?

 

-LHG +11%. Good but monthly data slower than for the month for Austrian +9% YTD against +4% for the month; Eurowings (our calculation) +26% +17%; Lufthansa +7% +5%. But the other way round for Brussels (our calculation) +12% +16%; Swiss +9% +11%.

 

-Ryanair. The start of flight disruptions start to show? Just +4% for the month.

 

-Others of note:

-Turkish a fair +7% YTD but only +4% for the month.

-Is SAS slipping into trouble? Only +1%, although its Nordic neighbour Finnair reported +14%.

-Is Virgin going to grow again? Just +2% YTD but +6% for the month.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

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