FOXTROTS*

 

September travel stocks’ ups and downs

Travel stocks (US, Asia Pacific, Europe) in September. Airlines: biggest growth, Turkish +17%; biggest fall, Jet (India) -35% sic. Hotels: Dusit Thani +13%, Wynn -14%. Tech: Trivago +28% sic, Travelport -9%. Others: Boeing +8%, Thomas Cook -31% sic.

 

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, SAS +17%; biggest fall, Jet (India) -9%. Hotels: Belmond +48% sic, Jinjiang -20%. Tech: Trivago +17%, cTrip -5%. Others: Hertz +16%, China Tvl -19%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 240, Asia Pacific 97, Europe 214, US 408. Index previous month: World 241, Asia Pacific 103, Europe 218, US 409.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 141; previous month 141.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth Istanbul +8%; biggest fall India -6%. Previous month: biggest growth New Zealand +4%; biggest fall Madrid -5%.

 

 

Comments:

We have had to flag three stocks with ‘sic’ – because their changes are so big that readers might think there is a mistake. But no, Jet fell -35%, Thomas Cook fell -31%, Trivago grew +28%. (And last month Belmond grew +48%.)

 

This means of course that these are turbulent times. And generally negative – many of those big growths follow falls the month earlier.

 

Overall, our Index for travel stocks in Asia Pacific fell below its 100 starting point.

 

In general, airlines had a bad month – about half were falling. No-frills-airlines as well! In Europe , Easyjet -14%, Norwegian -6%, Ryanair -8%, Wizz -9%. In AsPac Air Asia -8%. Only did Southwest in the US manage growth – +2%.

 

In AsPac, not only is Etihad-owned Jet the worst performer, but is 75% below its end-2017 price!

 

Hotel groups are not having such a good time either. In the US, for instance, five of the eight we track are below their end-2017 prices. Wynn is the worst, down -25%.

 

Travel-tech stocks were, as so often, mixed. Even if Trivago was fastest this month, it is half its end-2016 launch price.

 

We cannot find much good news, because as we noted, many of the growths follow earlier falls. Both aircraft-builders are good. We track only two travel agencies, both Germany based, but although TUI is flat over end-2017, Thomas Cook is half its end-2017 price.

 

 

Info from the Travel Business Analyst newsletters. Details in next month’s newsletters.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

 

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

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