London down, not even out

London visitor data (from Visit Britain) is not timely. Figures are surprising nevertheless.


In Q4, arrivals fell 8%. Remember that this was not supposed to happen. After the Brexit vote in 2016, the fall of the UK currency was supposed to boost visitor arrivals, although probably also prompt a fall in outbound travel.


It hasn’t happened like that. Even before the UK is out of the European Union, the London visitor count is down.


Of course a fall can have many causes. But the size of that Q4 fall, -8%, is a surprise – that is 400,000 fewer visitors in that period, say 4000 fewer daily.


Then comes #2 shock – Q1 figures show a -10% fall! There are fewer visitors in Q1 than in Q4, but that bigger percentage fall produced a bigger actual fall – around 5000 fewer visitors daily.


The Brexit surprises continue.


The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.


*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.