FOXTROTS*

 

June travel stocks’ ups and (mainly) downs.

Travel stocks (US, Asia Pacific, Europe) in June. Airlines: biggest growth, Wizz +6%; biggest fall, China Southern -20%. Hotels: Melia +0.2% sic, Dusit Thani -18%. Tech: Travelport +6%, eDreams -18%. Others: Walt Disney +5%, Avis -17%.

 

Comments:

Concern over a trade war hits travel stocks as well. 63 of the 75 travel stocks we track, fell (one was flat).

 

Unbelievably, only one hotel stock (of the 23 around the world we track) grew – and that by +0.2%, essentially flat. This appears to indicate that investors believe that hotels will be hit harder than, say, airlines.

 

Yet airlines also had a bad month. Even Lufthansa (which we think has the best businessplan among big airline groups, 75mn-plus annual seat sales) fell -11%.

 

China’s airlines as a group did worst (in airline size -20% -15% -17%).

 

Among hotels, Wyndham’s corporate break-up in May was partly responsible for its -11%. Another surprise was at Mandarin Oriental, usually a solid stock, down -10%. Does this mean investors think business travellers – MO’s strongest segment – will be affected most by world-hating US trade (and other) policies?

 

 

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, United +21%; biggest fall, Jet AW -36%. Hotels: Belmond +12%, Millennium & Copthorne -6%. Tech: Amadeus +12%, Last Minute -16%. Others: China Travel Service +18%, Hertz -31%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 234, Asia Pacific 105, Europe 214, US 381. Index previous month: World 248, Asia Pacific 114, Europe 217, US 412.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 132; previous month 136.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth Wellington +3%; biggest fall Bangkok -8%. Previous month: biggest growth Dublin +5%; biggest fall Kuala Lumpur -6%.

 

Comments:

Bangkok’s market fall was part responsible for Thai’s -20% fall and Dusit worsting all the world’s hotel groups. For interest, our US index (made up of three markets) was flat (+0.2%).

 

 

Info from the Travel Business Analyst newsletters.

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

 

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