FOXTROTS*

 

Double WYSKs. UK’s inbound & outbound travel.

WYSK = What You Should Know.

 

Funny, that. Experts (I’m a Trainee-Expert) presumed UK outbound travel would fall after the value of the UK currency fell – following the mid-2016 referendum in favour of quitting the European Union. And inbound travel would grow, spurred by that cheaper currency.

 

Some of the following figures are two months old, but I have just looked at them again – this time with my brain switched on.

 

Outbound, the segment that should be at risk. Up +2.1% for all-2017, and slightly faster, +2.7%, to the main (80%) destination region, the rest of Europe. The total fell in six months, including the last three. To the rest of Europe in fewer, just five, months.

 

Inbound, the segment that should be doing well. The total did indeed grow, but that +3.4% is hardly special; in fact, it is worse than its closest competitors in Europe. In order of total size, France (allegedly; data release varies between secretive and puzzling) grew +9%, Spain +9%, Italy +10%, Germany +5%.

 

There were falls in five months, but including the last four.

 

UK from the rest of Europe (a 72% share) was worse than the total, just +0.8%. And prospects do not look so good – there were falls in six months, also including the last four. In December the fall was big, -11%.

 

 

From all this I calculate the UK’s overall travel business grew +3% in 2017, and that related to the rest of Europe, +2%. Although that looks weak, it is better than the UK’s GDP growth in 2017. Time to break-out the last of the tariff-free champagne?

 

 

Notes:

-Something else is happening. The government usually reveals this type of data on a monthly basis. It has said nothing over the past three months.

 

-All this excerpted from our WYSK – What You Should Know. WYSK is available as a subscription service. We provide about 10 brief (usually 2/3 sentences), broadly world-based with emphasis on the region of the subscriber. A subscriber can contract for up to three special subjects.

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

 

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