FOXTROTS*

 

May travel stocks’ ups and downs

Travel stocks (US, Asia Pacific, Europe) in May.

 

Airlines: biggest growth, United +21%; biggest fall, Jet AW -36%.

Hotels: Belmond +12%, Millennium & Copthorne -6%.

Tech: Amadeus +12%, Last Minute -16%.

Others: China Travel Service +18%, Hertz -31%.

 

Comments:

The threats from the US – of many types – have understandably had an effect on some travel stock prices, mostly in the negative direction, and not only in the US.

 

For airlines, even if Etihad’s India-based Jet was the worst performer, others were almost as bad. Air Asia, for instance, fell -20%. AA made a big error in getting into politics, and worse, making the wrong choice. AA’s head, Tony Fernandes, supported the previous government, and even repainted one AA aircraft with a pro-(now-ex-)government message. This is unlikely to spoil prospects for the airline, even in the short-term. But Fernandes himself may have problems the next time he wants something from the new government.

 

Also a big fall was -16% for Air France-KLM – mostly punishment for an AF strike. Notwithstanding any public statements, KL must be looking for a way out of its link with AF. The problem will be cost. The value of the company has fallen since the strikes, and so KL would lose on selling its shares in the company.

 

We worry about Hertz, not only down -31% in the past month, but also down -32% this year. However, it could also be partly the business model, as Avis-Budget also fell heavily, -21%.

 

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, China Eastern +15%; biggest fall, American -14%. Hotels: Dusit +8%, MGM -8%. Tech: Travelport +7%, Trivago -34%. Others: ILG +12%, HNA -10%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index:

World 248, Asia Pacific 114, Europe 217, US 412. Index previous month: World 248, Asia Pacific 123, Europe 204, US 407.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 136; previous month 130.

 

Stockmarkets:

Biggest growth Dublin +5%; biggest fall Kuala Lumpur -6%. Previous month: biggest growth Paris +7%; biggest fall Istanbul -9%.

 

Info from the Travel Business Analyst newsletters. Details in next month’s newsletters.

 

 

 

The Fox. Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.  Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

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