Bigger Trump slump in US visitors


Trump Slump 1

Normally we would not analyse data for one month so thoroughly. But these are not normal times, thus this analysis – this one primarily on Jan-Sep.


There was slight improvement in Q3. Jan-Sep total visitors fell -3.8%, compared with Jan-Jun -3.9%, although September turned worse, -5.0%. The main reason for the worsening was results in the ‘overseas’ markets (all except Canada, Mexico) – -6.3% -5.7% but -8.7%.


Of the regions we track (calculations from US DMO’s data) indicate worsening for Europe -2.3 -2.6 but -4.0, and for Asia Pacific -1.7 -0.9 but -3.2.


Overall then, it appears the Trump Slump is worsening.


Other comments:

[] 11 markets in top-20 are getting better (faster growth or slower fall; Jan-Jun compared with Jan-Sep). Those getting worse (slower growth or faster fall) are (in size order): Canada, China, Korea, Germany, India, Italy, Colombia, Spain, Sweden.


[] Ignoring for a moment precise reporting, markets essentially unchanged (Sep compared with Jan-Sep) are Canada, Mexico, UK, Germany, India.


[] Biggest turns for the worst (Sep compared with Jan-Sep) are Japan (to -7% Sep from +0% Jan-Sep), China (-7 -6), Italy (-4 +3), Spain (-1 +3), Argentina (-36 -22), Netherlands (-6 +2), Colombia (-26 -12).


[] A rare Trump Bump. Korea soars forward at +18% Jan-Sep, same Jan-Jun, and +23% September.




Trump Slump 2

Forward Keys, a research company, tracks travel based on air bookings. Some of its findings on travel to the US:

[] For all-2017 air bookings were -2.0%. This year Jan/Feb was down fractionally, -0.02%.


[] FK reports that the fall in the value of the UK- against the US-currency, following the UK’s mid-2016 vote to leave the European Union, discouraged many UK would-be travellers. The UK is the US’s largest market after contiguous Canada and Mexico.


[] FK says visitors from China flattened in 2017 after substantial growth in 2016. Our database on actual arrivals shows something different – a -6% fall over Jan-Sep 17, but +15% Jan-Dec 16.


[] Outlook is better. FK reports international bookings to the US from within the Americas are +7%, and longhaul bookings from elsewhere are just +0.5% ahead. However, if ‘Americas includes the contiguous markets of Canada and Mexico, these two alone swing the total.


[] FK says Mexico forward bookings to August are +28.9%. Again, this contrasts our 2017 data, which shows -8% Jan-Sep 17.


[] Brazil forward bookings for the same period +24.8%.


[] US destinations. FK reports Florida as the biggest destination in the US, although we have New York City the largest single destination. FK reports Florida -1.0%.


A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information, qualification, and analysis.



The Fox

Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.


*Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.