Double WYSKs:

What’s working, what’s not – airlines in Europe;

Travel Stocks’ ups and downs.

WYSK = What You Should Know.



What’s working; what’s not. Airlines in Europe

January-August seat sales (RPKs for British; our estimates for Ryan): Air France+Hop +3%; British +1%; Easyjet +9%; Lufthansa +5%; Ryanair +10%.


Notes (on notable details; on whole-group for Air France, British, Lufthansa):


Air France group starting to look good. But contrary to some news reports, the group’s stock price is the 2nd-worst performer in our TBA-100 Airline Index.


British. The problem is now Spain. The group has two airlines based in Barcelona – Level (sic) and Vueling – plus Iberia in Madrid. They will surely be hurt by Catalonia government’s attempted political coup d’etat.


Easyjet starting to produce solid monthly gains around 10%. But when will the Brexit shadow fall? (Despite what the airline says, it can only partly solve the problem by creating an EU-based airline, which would have to be majority-EU-owned.)


Lufthansa roars ahead thanks to its Eurowing subsidiary, and its newest group member, Brussels (although that growth is mainly a rebound from terrorist-caused falls in 2016).


Ryanair growth is slowing but should still become world’s largest no-frills-airline with next month’s counts, overtaking Southwest. Still producing awesome seat factors (remember though, that this includes passenger no-shows).




Travel Stocks’ ups and downs

Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in October. Airlines: biggest growth, Turkish +19%; biggest fall, Alaska -13%. Hotels: Millennium & Copthorne +34%, Banyan -7%. Tech: Amadeus +6%, Trivago -33% sic. Others: HNA +25%, Walt Disney -1%.


Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, SAS +33%; biggest fall, Jet AW -17%. Hotels: Jinjiang +31%, Millennium & Copthorne -4%. Tech: Amadeus +6%, Trivago -30% sic. Others: Airbus +14%, Star Cruises -9%.


TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 236, AsPac 114, Eur 199, US 394. Index previous month: World 229, AsPac 108, Eur 188, US 391.


NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 124; previous month 130.


Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Tokyo +8%; biggest fall Kuala Lumpur -0.4%. Previous month: Frankfurt +6%; Istanbul -7%.


Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.




The Fox

Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.




Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.