FOXTROTS

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Airline results in Asia Pacific and Europe

Asia Pacific

January-July seat sales at biggest FSAs (full-service-airlines) in Asia Pacific (whole-group results for all): Air China +4%; Cathay flat; China Eastern +9%; China Southern +11%; Japan +4%; Singapore +2%.

 

Notes (on notable details):

 

-Air China shock (fall in international seat sales).

 

-Cathay group still not doing well (is Dragon or Pacific the problem, or both?).

 

-China Eastern shock #2 (fall in international seat sales in month but still manages +1% YTD).

 

-China Southern no shock (international +9% in month and +7% YTD).

 

-Japan (-2% in international seat sales in month but still +2% YTD).

 

-Singapore, as we noted before, its businessplan (which partly follows what we proposed) may be working – group +6%, even though its SIA is +2%. Even its Silk Air (which we still think must be changed into a low-cost-airline following our criteria) is +12%.

 

 

 

Europe

January-July seat sales at biggest airlines (RPKs for British; our estimates for Ryan): Air France+Hop +3%; British +1%; Easyjet +10%; Lufthansa +5%; Ryanair +12%.

 

Notes (on notable details; on whole-group for Air France, British, Lufthansa):

 

-Air France itself growing well (+3%), but its one-time fast-mover Transavia slipping badly to +3% for the month, although still +16% YTD. Note KLM is now two-thirds the size of AF.

 

-British at only +1% compared with +4% at Iberia. And what is happening with its two NFAs – AerLingus and Vueling? AL slowing but still +13%, but V falls in the month, and just +4% YTD. Is ICAG trying to expand V too far and wide?

 

-Easyjet (only) +9% for the month, but not much space to grow in the summer peak? YTD still +10% and its seat factor 96.7%; is this a record? (See Ryan.)

 

-Lufthansa. All its parts doing well – at least +5%. Both Brussels and Eurowings above +20%, although Brussels’ counts are still a rebound from a terrorism-related fall in 2016.

 

-Ryanair still admirably-strong +12%. Even its flight cuts may not take more than 2pts from that growth. Despite its bluff, Ryan now publishes less information than almost all other airlines. Only one decimal point for seat sales – say 12.6mn. And a rounded figure for seat factor; so its ‘97%’ can be between 96.5% and 97.4%. And so we don’t know if Easy’s 96.7% betters Ryan’s 97%.

 

 

 

The Fox

Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.

 

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