Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.


IPK/ITB. Counting wrongly.

Tomorrow at ITB Berlin, IPK International is due to release its figures on outbound travel. We have seen IPKI’s data, but have been asked to embargo it until after the presentation.


What we can say today, though, is that the figures are wrong.


IPKI and ITBB frequently make the same mistake – in their presentations at least – seeming to presume that an outbound-traveller/trip-count is the same as an inbound-visitor-count.


To make my point, count a traveller flying from Berlin to Singapore on Emirates, on to Bali, and back the same way. To IPKI that should be one traveller/trip. For arrivals it is two (Singapore and Indonesia), for Emirates it is four ‘passengers’ (what we better term ‘seats sold’), and for the airline SIN-DPS it is two ‘passengers’. Thus for IATA and others that one traveller is counted as six ‘passengers’.


IPKI/ITBB figures indicate that the outbound-trip total in 2016 was within about 10% of the visitor-arrival total – based on WTO (World Tourism Organization) VA counts – which are also open to statistical questioning.


IPKI’s figures would mean therefore that each trip produced 1.1 arrivals. We think that is hugely wrong, and that it should be closer to 1.4-1.5 arrivals.


That would mean, based on WTO’s arrival counts, there would have been about 820-880,000 outbound trips. (This, as a final twist, is not the same as outbound travellers!)





The Fox

Remember, I’m an industry expert in the parallel world.