FOXTROTS

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Double WYSKs – 1. EuroTunnel miscounts; 2. Asia Pacific inbound/outbound.

WYSK = What You Should Know

 

EuroTunnel miscounts

EuroTunnel has (re)started* some monthly counts. From July – a tough month to analyse because of the UK’s Brexit vote the month before, and a shocking terrorist attack in Nice that month.

 

Nevertheless, ET does not try very hard:

-It notes +6.6% in cars-transported that month, describing this the highest since July 1998. Our records indicate July 1996 was higher than 1998.

 

-It does not note the -7.9% in buses-transported. We, and we presume investors in ET, would appreciate some comment on this. For instance, we guess 65-70% of ET’s bus traffic is UK-originating. That would make this segment more susceptible to the fall that month in the value of the UK currency. But it could be more related to the Nice attacks, as around half of UK-originating tour-bus traffic includes the south of France.

 

-Train traffic is weak, falling in both Q1 and Q2 – so hardly related to Brexit or the Nice attacks – albeit Q1 would have been damaged by the terrorist attacks in Paris in November 2015.

 

*The company appears to have forgotten it reported monthly until 1998. However, it has not restarted this for Eurostar; they are still provided quarterly.

 

 

Asia Pacific inbound/outbound

Our calculation of AsPac visitor arrivals for latest-month, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +8.6%. Unusually, many destinations reported growth at around that rate – worst of the big ones was Hong Kong, where we exclude travel from China residents.

 

Our calculation of AsPac resident departures for latest-month, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +7.2%. Most markets actually close to that average, including (only) 7% growth from China (our estimates).

 

 

 

The Fox

Remember, I’ll be famous after I’m dead.