FOXTROTS

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Double WYSKs – 1 July for airlines in Europe, 2 Visitors – France v Spain v US

WYSK = What You Should Know

 

July; airlines in Europe

July was a tumultuous month for the travel business – coup attempt in Turkey, serious terrorist attack in Nice, France. And the month following the UK decision to leave the European Union, within two years in theory.

 

Some WYSKs then (What You Should Know), in alphabetical order:

 

-Air France seat sales -4%, slower than its -1% YTD. But its Transavia no-frills-airline +23%, +20% YTD.

 

-British does not publish its seat sales. We estimate +4%, +3% YTD.

 

-Easyjet +7%, faster than its +6% YTD. Note around 50% of EJ’s traffic does not touch the UK (as an aside, that’s the half that is at risk when UK leaves EU).

 

-Norwegian, maybe 25-30% of its traffic UK related, +9%, slower than its +13% YTD.

 

-Ryanair, 12 bases in UK (at risk after Brexit), but probably similar to EJ – about 50% of its traffic outside UK. +11%, slower than its +16% YTD.

 

-Turkish -1%, slower than its +4% YTD. This is a substantial turndown; same month in 2015 was +23%, +11% YTD.

 

(Some of these percentage-change figures are my calculations on airline-supplied base data.)

 

 

Visitors – France v Spain v US

In my ongoing tracking of visitor trends, I expect changes this year – in 2015 in order was France, US, Spain.

 

That’s visitors; in spend top-3 were US, China, Spain – Spain half China’s total, China half US’s total.

 

This year France on track to count 84mn, US 77mn, Spain 75mn. However, I think these statistical trends will change, and all-2016 will show around 77mn for all three.

 

(I’m working primarily on WTO data, with other indicators from DMOs.)

 

 

The Fox

Remember, I’ll be famous after I’m dead.