FOXTROTS

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Double WYSKs

What You Should Know – about France’s fall, Asia Pacific outbound

France’s fall

Reports in France talk of ‘official’ figures saying August visitor arrivals have fallen 10% as a result of the recent terrorist attacks in the destination. I have a few comments.

 

  1. Although the ‘official’ is not specified, I venture that these are not official figures – simply because they are not available this quickly , in most destinations and certainly in France. (France’s DMO has given only Q1 data to WTO.)

 

Thus they must be either what I might call ‘initial estimates’ or forecasts for August.

 

  1. In addition, a 10% fall would not be bad as could have been expected.

 

The most-reported recent attack was Nice, on July 14, just three weeks ago. Given the seriousness of that attack – over 80 killed – and the shocking method (a truck driving through crowds), I believe a fall in visitation of 25% could be expected in the four weeks following the attack.

 

  1. However, visual observations (ie a little better than an at-desk guess!) indicate the fall is greater than either of these figures.

 

Yet perhaps something else is happening:

 

-Yes, some travellers are changing destinations, but are those that do not change destination changing their intra-destination activity?

 

-Ie, not the Tour Eiffel but the (excellent) Musee de Quai Branly?

 

–Or continuing to visit the Tour but staying for a shorter time, and not drinking coffee in a nearby pavement cafe? That would change the number of visitors ‘seen’, even if the actual number was unchanged.

 

 

 

Asia Pacific outbound

Our calculation of AsPac resident departures for latest-month, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +6.3%. Slowed by 12% fall from Hong Kong, and only 7% growth from China (our estimates).

 

 

 

The Fox

Remember, I’ll be famous after I’m dead.