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Visitor Trends following…Euro-2016…Terrorist attacks in France

An excerpt from our monthly Travel Business Analyst newsletter.

Our Big Event Blues* proven again in Euro event

Hotel results during Euro-2016, a Europe-wide soccer tournament, proved again our BEB* – occupancy fell in the three main cities: Marseille -3%; Nice -7%; Paris -12%.

 

Also, achieved rates were higher in the three, resulting in overall revenue growth for Marseille of +42%, Nice +9%, although not for Paris -8%.

 

However, because of recent events*, direct comparison with the same period in 2015 may not be valid.

 

In addition, there is no calculation of difference in spend between sports-visitors for the Euro tournament and regular visitors. We would think close to equal for destination spend (higher spend for Euro visitors but shorter stay), but probably higher for Euro visitors for industry spend (on flights, hotels, etc).

 

*Notes:

-Big Event Blues is our semi-serious theory suggesting that momentous international events actually reduce visitor arrival totals. Although these events attract international visitors, many traditional travellers (such as business travellers and even holidaymakers) will stay away from that destination just before, during, and just after the event. They assume that there will be too much disruption to normal movement in the destination. In general, they are right – not only is movement curtailed, but many prices are higher.)

-Terrorist attacks in Paris last November and in Brussels this March may have affected the results. Whereas the Paris attack reduced visitation, Brussels may have improved it (diversion travel). And other bad news on France for visitors – strikes, street riots – probably also reduced business.

-The terrorist attack in Nice last week occurred after Euro-2016 had finished.

-Data from MKG.

 

Hotel results in main cities in France during Euro*, % growth

Item Marseille Nice Paris
Occupancy -3.4 -6.8 -12.2
Average room rate 47.3 17.0 5.2
Revenue┼ 42.3 9.0 -7.6

Notes: *Europe-wide soccer tournament, over Jun 10-Jul 10. ┼Definition unclear. Source: MKG, Travel Business Analyst.

 

 

Terrorist attacks in France

Figures appear to indicate that the terrorist attacks in France (Nov 15, Jul 16) caused a hotel occupancy fall of 18-22%, see table. But we estimate this fall went closer to 25% in the week post-attacks.

 

We also believe these results are representative of the overall fall in visitation to the two destinations – with related falls in other locations.

 

From a business viewpoint, Nice was worse in that the attack came during the city’s peak period – July, August. The Paris attack came in one of the three slowest months for the city – November, January, February.

 

Damage does not seem to be longterm. Paris airport passengers fell 2% in November, -3% December, but was back to growth in January. Brussels – which suffered attacks in March, one of which was at the airport, which was then closed a few days – airport passengers were -29% March, -46% April, but only -8% in May, -6% June.

 

Notes: Source shows Paris results in day of attack, Nov 13, but we believe results would be unaffected by the attacks that evening. Source does not show results for third day after attacks, as it does for Nice; thus our ‘NA’.

 

Hotel results following terrorist attacks in France

Friday Saturday Sunday
Nice,2016┼ Jul 15 Growth╪,% Jul 16 Growth╪,% Jul 17 Growth╪,%
Occ,% 86 -5.4pts 84 -7.7pts 67 -18.4pts
ARR,US$* 310 5.0 307 -2.2 312 -2.5
Paris,2015┼ Nov 14 Growth╪,% Nov 15 Growth╪,% Nov 16
Occ,% 86 -20.7pts 46 -22.1pts NA NA
ARR,US$* 186 6.7 187 5.5 NA NA

Notes: See text. Rates are before tax. ARR = average room rate, Occ = occupancy. *Converted at US$1 to €0.90. ┼Nice (Promenade des Anglais; Thu Jul 14) 68 hotels/8400 rooms; Paris (Bataclan and others; Fri Nov 13) 250/32,000. ╪Over same weekday, year earlier. Source: MKG, Hospitality On.

 

The Fox

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