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Travel stocks. Europe special review, all-world standard review.

This report is divided into two – Europe special review, and our standard monthly review.

 

  1. Europe special review

An immediate reaction to the UK’s vote to leave the EU – so-called Brexit – has been stock prices, and the value of the UK currency. We are not qualified to comment, or track, currency movements.

 

And our special review of stock prices here is entirely within the travel business. And not our usual full coverage of Asia Pacific, Europe, US.

 

 

Findings:

 

  1. End-June prices over end-May.

-Airlines were hit much harder – -23%, compared with -9% for hotels and -10% for Others.

 

-Although we think the no-frills-airlines Easyjet, Norwegian, Ryanair are most under threat, the market thinks otherwise – or thinks differently. IAG (Aer Lingus, British, Iberia, Vueling) was -31% in London and -37% in Madrid!

 

 

A separate report in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter shows 36% of Ryanair’s capacity is UK-EU (and which could be lost), and 10% of Norwegian’s capacity (excludes its UK to non-EU points, also at risk). Plus Easyjet’s intra-EU capacity (also at risk) is 24% (excludes Switzerland – where EJ has a base – which is outside the EU but which pays to access the EU market).

 

-Least hit airline was Turkish, -8%, although that is a sad irony given the terrorist attack on Istanbul’s main airport two days ago.

 

-Among hotels, biggest fall was at NH -17%, although most of this is probably a result of that company’s disarray – following the move of some shareholders last month to fire its chairman and CEO.

 

-Among others, Eurotunnel – whose routes London-Brussels/Paris look vulnerable – was -18%. That looks slight when compared with the hit for airlines.

 

-But the biggest ‘Others’ fall was -24% for Frankfurt-quoted TUI – because one of the company’s subsidiaries is a big UK tour operator, Thomson. Perhaps TUI now regrets its move in 2014 to absorb its UK-quoted TUI Travel into the parent TUI AG.

 

 

  1. End-June over end-2015.

Much worse:

-Airlines -27% against hotels -14%, Others -13%.

 

-Biggest falls -39% at IAG, -38% at Easyjet. (IAG Madrid was -47%!)

 

-InterContinental is the only one of the hotel groups we track that was ahead, +4%.

 

-Among Others, Thomas Cook was down 48%. Perhaps investors do not know TC is German-owned, and has most (65%?) of its business outside the UK.

 

-But also hit was TUI, -39%, for the reasons given above.

 

-A winner was Kuoni, +31%. It must be extra pleased it sold off its UK (and other) tour operations in 2015.

 

-Tech companies (see our Net Value Travel Tech index, below) also were relatively untouched (-4%, and -6% end-Jun over end-May).

 

 

 

 

  1. World standard review

The following is our standard monthly report.

 

Note that changes in this section are, as usual, based on a comparison with previous-month prices, not end-2015. And that this is a worldwide report, not just Europe.

 

Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in June. Airlines: biggest growth, Thai AW +34%; biggest fall, IAG -31%. Hotels: Dusit +41%, NH Hoteles -17%. Others: Hertz +14%, TUI -26%.

 

Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Thai AW +24%; biggest fall, Air China -13%. Hotels: NH Hoteles +9%, Wynn R -24%. Others: Avis +15%, T Cook -13%.

 

TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 155, AsPac 86, Eur 107, US 274. Index previous month: WW 165, AsPac 87, Eur 126, US 281.

 

NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 104; previous month 109.

 

Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, London +4%; biggest fall, Dublin -13%. Previous month: India +4%; Istanbul -9%.

 

Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

 

 

 

End-June closing prices of travel company stocks, Europe

Company* Growth┼,% Growth╪,%
Airlines    
Air France-KLM -21.0 -18.5
Easyjet -29.2 -37.6
IAG London -30.9 -39.4
IAG Madrid -37.0 -46.5
Lufthansa -16.4 -27.5
Norwegian -15.9 -11.1
Ryanair -19.7 -24.6
SAS -29.8 -34.4
Turkish -8.0 -22.6
Wizz -17.3 -12.1
   
Hotels    
Accor -11.3 -13.3
InterContinental 3.5 3.6
Melia -11.9 -20.6
Mill & Cop -7.7 -12.9
NH -17.3 -25.0
   
Others    
Airbus -7.7 -16.6
Amadeus -5.7 -3.5
eDreams -10.2 6.3
Eurotunnel -17.5 -16.1
Fraport -6.7 -19.3
Kuoni -0.3 31.4
Lastminute -1.8 -14.5
Thomas Cook -18.1 -48.2
TUI -25.5 -39.4

Notes: *May not be full formal name. ┼Over end-May. ╪Over end-2015. Source: stockmarkets, Net Value, Travel Business Analyst.

 

 

The Fox

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