FOXTROTS

Fox – sly.  Trots – left-leaning (Trotsky) plus its more insalubrious meaning.

Foxtrots – leading the industry in a dance.

 

Easyexit, Ryanexit; time to talk?

Now Easyjet and Ryanair must get serious.

 

UK-based Easy will lose a lot of routes intra-EU and its Switzerland base (because the flights into EU destinations follow a special agreement between CH and the EU; Easy is now outside that).

 

EU-based Ryan will lose a big chunk (nearly all) of its UK-EU flights from its 12 UK bases.

 

If the two can talk together, they can switch many of these (for instance, Ryan takes over Easy’s CH base). That said, with open skies in the EU, there is no need for money to change hands. (But maybe not open for the UK; that is one of the many things to be restarted).

 

For instance, Ryan could simply wait until Easy’s CH rights are withdrawn, and start operating those ex-Easy routes the following day. More or less; there are obviously procedures but for within-EU flights, these are quite-simple formalities.

 

And Easy could do the same with Ryan’s UK bases. However, the EU may not approve so many routes from the UK – as another ‘punishment’ for the UK’s Brexit vote.

 

The other unknown is how other no-frills-airlines – in the EU and the UK – will react. Fly Be needs help and those abandoned Ryan routes could help – although FB is not as efficient an airline as Ryan is and so may lose money.

 

In the EU, the brightest are Vueling and Wizz. But Vueling is part of IAG, the group run by Willie Walsh, who has yet has shown no sign of learning from his time at Aer Lingus, when he fought and lost against Ryan.

 

Wizz has shown no sign of moving outside its East Europe heartland, and may be best to stay with that.

 

Will Norwegian be a wild-card? It will likely lose its UK-US routes, and may look for replacement activity. But its leader Bjorn Kjos seems to be more interested in the big time, such as transAtalantic, and may no longer be interested in building up little centres of traffic.

 

 

The Fox

Remember, I’ll be famous after I’m dead.

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